I don't think there's any question that if the price does not double immediately after the reward drop, lots of miners are going to drop out. Whether somebody maliciously takes advantage of that, there's no way to know. With only more efficient miners left over, assuming the price doesn't jump up enough, then I suspect the price will continue downward as the more efficient miners can tolerate lower prices and remain profitable.
I think there's a good chance this scenario happens as people will probably price an increase in well before the reward change in anticipation of a possible price increase, thus there won't be a subsequent and sufficient price increase after the change.
Why should people feel the need to pay twice as much just because miners aren't earning as much? Halving the block reward doesn't make bitcoin twice as valuable, and nobody owes you free money for mining. Block reward halves, miners mining at a loss stop mining, difficulty drops. Simple. Um, yeah, that's what I said. |
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I think btc price will definitely rise after december and demand might just push it above 20 in february or so, It helps when your wife is an economist  Why should that be the case? It might happen, but there are reasons to think the price won't go up after the reward halving. miners have little impact on the market right now, they will have half that impact after the reward halving. that is all Supply of fresh btc to the market will be lowered, miners, who pay electricity will try to compensate their lowered income by raising the price, speculators and outsiders will think this price bump is the sign they were waiting to buy before another 30$ peak so people will buy and hold to their btc as everybody who has btc will be hoping btc will rise more. Expectations may cause short term jumps, total market is shallow (30-40 million ?) . but of course it's impossible to predict future, mtgox might get stomped upon by some government or banks in the meantime so trust in bitcoin might go down with the price, or someone might decide to attack Iran and gold, oil will jump and everyone may forget about bitcoin for a while, aliens might invade earth and vaporize our rigs , some huge vendor might start to accept bitcoin, then it will go up. If nothing weird happens it will go up I think I just posted about this in another thread, but I'll post it here too. The problem is if the price doesn't immediately and sufficiently go up after the block reward halving. If it does not, then less efficient miners' profits will be immediately cut in half, making many of them unprofitable. This will probably compel lots of miners in that category to finally drop out. This will leave only the more efficient miners - e.g. FPGA miners - as they can tolerate such a production increase as their operating costs are much less. The remaining efficient miners toleration of reduced profits could lead to competition for those profits, effectively decreasing the price. I think there's a good chance the price does not immediately and sufficiently go up after the block reward halving because I think there's a good chance people will attempt to price a potential price increase in ahead of time, and if enough people with enough market influence price it in ahead of time, it won't happen at the time. |
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I don't think there's any question that if the price does not double immediately after the reward drop, lots of miners are going to drop out. Whether somebody maliciously takes advantage of that, there's no way to know. With only more efficient miners left over, assuming the price doesn't jump up enough, then I suspect the price will continue downward as the more efficient miners can tolerate lower prices and remain profitable.
I think there's a good chance this scenario happens as people will probably price an increase in well before the reward change in anticipation of a possible price increase, thus there won't be a subsequent and sufficient price increase after the change.
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RALLYTIME!
I'm guessing just another pump and dump. If you've just bought coins it's likely you bought in too high. Prices may go down to 4.88 again imho if this is yet another stage trick. I'm guessing it works yet again, even after 5 times or so. They let people wait for any action up or down for a couple of weeks, maybe even using bots to keep the price relatively stable and at the first sign of a rally it gets everyone excited. So whoever is doing that, they just made some money off you. Maybe not much, but if you do it at high volume...But hey, you can always hold those coins for longterm. Tip.. Aint no pump and dump... How can you tell? |
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G'night folks. See you back under $5 when I wake up. Ammiright?
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I think you can get that with the Sierra Chart Feed. You don't need Sierra Chart to run the feed executable, and if I remember correctly, it generates a file that contains all the price and volume data. I'm guess there's a way to parse the data out of that file, but that's beyond me. |
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You may be right... 10 cents and people are going crazy over the massive action.
It is massive in relative terms. Meh...  you see the volume is still their, so why in the world is bitcoin "stable" my guess is: bitcoin is growing, but at the same time the "lucky bitcoin millionaires" are looking to secure at least part of their well earned bitcoin wealth, by cashing out and buying gold or something. once they have all cashed out, the selling pressure will stop. breaking 5$ was a big signal, the lucky bitcoin millionaires are running low on bitcoins. this is very good news, bitcoin user base expanding, coins more evenly divided bitcoiners are becoming more financially secure, and less effected by price swings, allowing them to more effectively "back" bitcoin Not impressed. I don't think things are going to look much different a month or so out. How many times have we broken $5 now? |
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if we can keep this over $5 this could be the beginning of a big move....just sayin.
Why? We've done this dance before. |
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This means nothing. We're still in the narrow trading range. Stability forever!  |
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Looks like the price is breaking down. Brace for impact...
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Anyway, price action is getting boring, who's ready for the knife?
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I think btc price will definitely rise after december and demand might just push it above 20 in february or so, It helps when your wife is an economist Why should that be the case? It might happen, but there are reasons to think the price won't go up after the reward halving. |
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 As far as I can tell, we've been in a narrower price range for longer than any other time period since trading began. So, yeah, congrats everyone. I was right. We finally did it! Stability!!!  |
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I've got > 2000 and < 5000. Last year when I started I remember thinking "I hope one day to have 200". On then on the way down from $32 I kept scooping them up with my biggest haul coming in at $2.4x after the last $2.00 bounce. I keep saying to myself, "I've got enough", and I think I've got plenty, but it'd sure be nice to have 10,000...
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it is difficult to predict timings, but in terms of price, I predict bitcoin will have exceeded 32 $ within the next 12 months.
What are you basing this prediction on? wave 1 + fibo Not impressed. |
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Wow. Very cool. I've been an NZBMatrix member for almost 5 years now, but I just might throw a few bitcoins their way for adopting the currency. NZBMatrix + SABnzb + SickBeard = best media experience ever. It'd be great if other biggish service providers in this particular niche would adopt bitcoins. I'm specifically thinking of btguard and Astraweb, for example.
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I predict that a year from now the bitcoin price will be in the single digits. I just want to enshrine this prediction in its own thread. I hope somebody remembers to dig this up a year from now. In the meantime I hope to take advantage of the next bitcoin bubble. My the odds be ever in my favor.
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take a step back. look at All Data chart. ask your self the following questions why 0.5$ why 5$ why 30$ why 14$ why 2$ why 7$ why 5$ now all that considered, is 5$ the new 0.50$  I can almost guarantee that the price won't behave in the future like it did during the timespan you represented there. The days of the kind of gains we saw in 2010, 2011, and early 2012 are over. I think bitcoin has proven its resilience for the time being, and I do think the price will go higher than it is now this year, but I doubt very much we'll see sustained prices above $10 in the next year, and I don't think we'll see a billion dollar market cap even in the next four years. As I've said elsewhere, I think this year the price is going to go up (a summer boom) and then fall again and settle for some time back in the single digits ($6-7). |
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so ppl are you ready ? i closed my shorts (  ) this can be 19/12/2011 all over again Nope. |
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