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it already is a bargaining chip for the westerners. it's only the westerners that claimed Taiwan is a country but they all know it's not. for it to be a country it has to have a consulate of US or any other country but it does not have. Taiwan has been part of China for centuries, it only breaks for some time.
China has a lot to lose when war comes so they may also be afraid of it. But they need Taiwan to have everything their advantage, there is got to be one that will give in. as of now, we can see China is choking the supply chain, this is a different kind of war.
A few corrections: 1. You mean, only the "westerners" and the citizens of Taiwan, which have massively voted in favour of pro-independence. 2. You say that to be a country has to have a consulate of the US. Yet Taiwan does now have a consulate in US. So by your own argument, it is what? 3. China is choking the supply chain - nope, the supply chain has a huge backlog, but is not just due to China. China has successfully taken Hong Kong, after many promises of "one state, two systems". That move that apparently was bold means that Taiwan can now only be taken by force. ... We know Silicon Valley in the US has the capability to manufacture and develop semiconductors and electronic chips... so they will just have to step up their operations and expand their capacity...
Seriously, that could happen. There are so many people out of work right now, whether it's because they're choosing to be unemployed or not, and I can imagine manufacturing making a comeback in the US. It's been a very long time since the US manufactured its own electronic components, but stranger things have happened. As I said on the original post, creating that capability takes years. We are not talking processors or GPUs or AI chips. It is about the basic semiconductor "cookie".  |
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In the country I was born in, speaking of money is even considered bad taste among those who consider themselves entrepreneurs or owners of companies or property. When making business plans, there is much speaking about mission, objectives and there is an underlying belief that only there is certain social class that is legitimised to do business. Also, inverting in stocks is considered a merely speculative activity, that is the closest thing to gambling and only for the greedy.
This way of thinking does not do compel people to seek financial education or try to build a business. What about your country?
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https://twitter.com/SpacePirate_io/status/1448713803680473089Steam decided to kick all blockchain games because they tend to feature real money trading for in-game items. IMO this is a good decision, at the current state blockchain games are just another vehicle for speculative investments and even scams, and unsuspecting people shouldn't be lured into them. ... Since when "real" money is not being traded for all short of game items? Why is this different from, for example, paying a large sum for a "Black Lotus" in the game Magic, or buying Warhammer figurines? The fact that transactions take place in crypto and that the items out there are digital should not confused with scams. This comment should really be revised as it puts all crypto on the same sack. |
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I am afraid that what you call the Yield Curve is mostly related to fixed yield gilts such as bonds and the like. These, as of now do not protect you at all against inflation. It is much more likely that you will be loosing sometime even more since some of these have actually negative yield. There has been times in the future where that was true so the book is old?
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That's because no single person or group of persons is or are in control of Cryptos, it's called Blockchain technology
Not really. Most of the time(like, Bitcoin is the only exception), a single development team controls the entire codebase of a certain cryptocurrency project. "Blockchain technology" doesn't automatically fix the centralization problem. Very very common misconception. Yep. Not only bitcoin is decentralised, there are some alts that fit the description. At the end of the day, decentralisation is not perfect, even in bitcoin you have a large number of mining operations that have quite an influence on what fork is going to be supported (if any). I tend to believe much more in incentives rather than on a wider decentralisation, which is very clear and strong while the bitcoin project is in a growth phase. It may be quite different when it reaches a stable phase. |
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I am surprised that someone wants to invest in Argentina. Do not get me wrong, I respect fully the people of Argentina and the country as such, but the track record of defaults, "corralitos", nationalisations such as the YPF one and a general sense of lawlessness makes me doubt of any possible project that takes place in the country. I would not be surprised if the governments passes a law and steals all the miners or something of the kind.
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En el caso de Citadel, prefiero que no compren crypto. Es una compañía que ha medrado en base a aplicar ventajas asimetricas, muchas veces basadas en tecnología para extraer beneficios del trading, sin realmente aportar nada.
Hay dos formas de ver los mercados en los que la aplicación normativa es dudosa. Por una parte esta la amenaza y por otra la oportunidad. Hay infinidad de ejemplos de situaciones en las que rige "the rule of law" que dicen los Angloparlantes y otras en las que no. Tïpicamente, Reino Unido es un país donde la ley, en particular las leyes relativas a la propiedad y el orden, se aplican de una forma muy sistemática. En estos casos las consecuencias son en general positivas para el país en general porque los inversores pueden entrar con la confiaza de que los acuerdos y la ley se cumplirán efectiva y eficazmente.
Comparemos el caso de alquien que quiere comprar una vivienda para ponerla en alquiler en España. Un día la ocupación es legal, otro día no, un día el alquiler es buen negocio y al siguiente te lo regula el gobierno. Y de telón de fondo la policía que muchas veces no se atreve ni a desalojar un piso evidentemente ocupado si no tienen fe absoluta en que llevan ahí menos de 24 horas.
Si pudieras elegir, comprarías el piso en Londres on en Barcelona?
Por otra parte, los mercados menos regulados suelen estar asociados a la emergencia de tecnologias o a paises en desarrollo. Hay mucho riesgo, pero mucha oportunidad de tener beneficios que en mercados transparentes, bien regulados y legales no existen.
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...
Como apuntes adicionales, no sé si es de recibo que el artículo abajo citado destaque el supuesto temor de los manifestantes que vimos este mes, a que El Salvador se devengue en una suerte de “Narco Banco” para el blanqueo. Es quizás un aspecto a vigilar, pero no si se ha ganado el derecho a formar parte de un titular balance, cuando la base práctica es la conjetura.
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Sobre el tema drogas, tenemos que hablar. Durante los 80, los 90 y aun ahora, las drogas son unas cosas que los malvados Latinos cultivan en la selva, se la venden a los mafiosos italianos y a los negros que enganchan ladinamente a las preciosas muchachas arias, rubitas y con excelentes notas y las convierten en adictas o los malvados negros proxenetas de los barrios marginales. Reagan lanzo la guerra contra las drogas a base de imponer penas de prision ridículamente largas que han acabado cono una parte significativa de la población entre rejas y las prisiones abarrotadas con gente que posiblemente tendría que estar haciendo alguna otra cosa para pagar su deuda con la sociedad. Ese era el rum-rum de fondo de toda la jerga ideologica, de las películas de Hollywood y de las noticias de las 9 . A día de hoy, muchos estados han legalizado la "maría". Así se ha llegado a un punto en el cual la DEA y similares van deteniendo a un narco aquí y allá, pero saben perfectamente que es una hydra y al cortar una cabeza salen siete más. USA ha empezado a darse cuenta de que si sus ciudadanos están dispuestos a meterse por la nariz hasta el polvo que la aspiradora recoge de la moqueta, no hay manera de evitar que alguien lo produzca y se lo venda. Lo que existe ahora son unos señores que existen para ir metiendo "narcos" en las carceles, unas cárceles privadas que cobran por ello, unos narcos que no tienen nada mejor que hacer que ser narcos y una población en USA que no ha perdido el gusto por los psicotrópicos. Todo el mundo sabe lo que hace el otro y esto ha llegado a una situación en la que "todos salen beneficiados" y unos justifican la existencia de los otros. Todos excepto los únicos perdedores: los Latinos que intentan vivir dentro de la ley. Como es lógico, igual que si alguien está dispuesto a "chutarse" aparecerán camellos, cuando alguien quiere mover dinero aparecerá alguien que lo haga. No creo que El Salvador le quite el protagonismo a Panamá, pero si lo hace, da exactamente igual.
De todas formas, precaución, el tener un dinero deflacionario (por lo menos por ahora) genera también muchos problemas porque como la gente sabe que va a valer mucho más en el futuro, consume sólo lo mínimo y el resto lo ahorra, lo que produce fuertes contracciones económicas.
He estado al tanto del hecho de que la deflación lleva a las personas al ahorrar su Bitcoin de ser posible, esperando rendimiento para su inversión, sin embargo, no estaba al tanto de los efectos macro-económicos de ello. Obviamente, un descenso en el consumo por parte de una población puede causar efectos indeseables, pero no sabia que existian antecedentes de moneda deflacionaría en un entorno macro. ¿existe tál antecedente o no? Ha habido épocas de fiat deflacionario, que yo recuerde en Japon y en Reino Unido. El efecto que produce es que la gente no consume, intenta ahorrar mucho más que de costumbre ya que puede comprar más en el futuro que ahora. Además: https://www.eleconomista.es/diccionario-de-economia/deflacionCon la deflación se crea un círculo vicioso por el que al caer la demanda, las empresas ven reducidos sus beneficios al tener que reducir los precios para conseguir ventas. Como consecuencia de ello, tienen que reducir costes, lo que significa que tienen que recortar empleados. A su vez, si hay gente que se queda en paro, la demanda seguirá disminuyendo ya que estos dejarán de comprar también, y así sucesivamente. Los tipos cero y negativos en Europa son consecuencia del temor a la deflación: https://elpais.com/economia/2020-06-28/el-fantasma-de-la-deflacion-cabalga-de-nuevo.htmlDe hecho en Japón ha permanecido la amenaza durante varias décadas y, aunque parece que puede acabar, ha obligado a mantener tipos 0 durante años y años. https://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce-2014-4-page-243.htmY Reino Unido tuvo lo suyo también: |
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Es lo primero que pensé, van a aprovechar para usar el bitcoin como medio de ahorro o inversion y con la colaboración del gobierno. Quien sabe, quiza dentro de 10 años la población del El Salvador sean todos millonarios y dejen a medio mundo con la legua fuera y al otro medio haciendo de bitcoin su medio elegido para el ahorro.
De todas formas, precaución, el tener un dinero deflacionario (por lo menos por ahora) genera también muchos problemas porque como la gente sabe que va a valer mucho más en el futuro, consume sólo lo mínimo y el resto lo ahorra, lo que produce fuertes contracciones económicas.
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Esto es de la España profunda en concepto, de la España vaciada por ser un robo y con un toque Colombiano por el rollo de realismo mágico que lo envuelve y Venezolano (para algunos) por se perpetrado por un malvado Socialista comeniños. De lo que es el atraco en si no me sorprende nada excepto que el taxista diga que se largo con 11mil léuros... vamos no se lo cree ni el ni su seguro.
Lo demás no me sorprende pq si siendo un cargo público anda haciendo estas cosas tiene toda la pinta de meterse el dinero por la naricilla, cosa bastante común en los cargos públicos... y los privados (de nuevo el vínculo Colombia), lo cual cuadra totalmente con chocar un coche segun lo roba.
Camarero, póngame una de lo mismo que tome él.
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---snipped---
What known yet is how eNaira can be converted to naira which means someone that has eNaira can send it to his bank account and vice versa. Later it will be possible for exchanges to support it as they support naira too, but Nigerian CBN banned decentralized currencies which makes naira not to be transferrable to bank directly, if the ban is not lifted, exchanges may not support eNaira transactions. But if the ban is lifted off, I would not see it surprising Binance and some other exchanges will support it. About decentralized exchanges, anything agreeable between buyer and seller is supported, if eNaira can be transferred from one person to another through the eNaira wallet, then it would be a good means of exchanging eNaira for bitcoin and vice versa, this will depend on the buyers and sellers agreement. See simply like electronic cash centrally issued. I think it is of some use in the country, as banking services and broadband connections may not be widely available, so people can actually benefit from it specially if unbanked. As far as cryptocurrency, it does not seem to be one at all, even if technically it could be, it just does not seem to be decentralised which for me is a must. |
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If printing more money is inflation then why printing more gold is not?
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Honestly, I have never seen a post depicting a lack of understanding so deep and even arguing about physical impossibilities such as "printing gold". On top of that you decide to use bold and large letters. I am keeping this as an example of how not to post. As I write, I have just seen your personal text "so many books so little time". That explains why you have not read any on these topics. Anyway, little by little: - Gold cannot be printed, it has to be either mined and then refined any of the different metallurgic techniques , or found in sunken ships o stolen. Even the last two do not actually create gold. So it is not printed, it is "minted" and that requires WORK. Please keep this in you mind for a moment. - Bitcoin cannot be printed. It has to be created by mining a block. It requires WORK (hence the "Proof of Work" concept). These two bitcoin, and gold, cannot be produced cheaply (AKA printed). So they can be inflationary or deflationary, but in any case the supply is severely restricted, so even with moderate increases in demand the price rises quickly, so is safe to say that in general they are deflationary respect to fiat and to other goods. There is an scenario in which bitcoin would be inflationary (or gold) and that would be if the demand drops sharply. In fact, sometimes bitcoin has inflationary stages when the price has gone very high very quick and all the sudden drops. - Fiat and currencies in general require little effort to be produced (AKA printed). They can be inflationary or deflationary. In fact, Japan had some deflationary periods that caused mayhem in the economy. Anyway, fiat is usually inflationary because is under the control (more or less direct) of Governments. It is just too easy to inject money in the economy producing a temporary growth in the economy, but it does not end up well if sustained in time. Well, I hope this helps you understanding the world. For further reading, search inflation and causes in any search engine of your choice as well as "fiat money". |
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Funny question and too deep for a forum. Who is happier? I do not have any poll data, but we could run a poll here in the forum about perceived happiness and investment.
I think that long term investors are happier than short term in general, as they take a longer perspective on the investment and usually, are able to extract results progressively and with less sense of risk. It does not matter that much if it is bitcoin of something else, like stocks or commodities, it is much more about having conviction in what you do.
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In a world that does not want to hear about data, logic, serious analysis and rather has chosen to consider everything as and opinion, always partisan related, and that considers that the value of an expert view in a field that takes years to master equivalent to some tweeting by a celebrity, it is refreshing to see that the Nobel price in Economy is going to people who have done massive non-trivial research on real world data. This, for an Economist, is rolling up the sleeves and getting into the mud. For example, relations such as the link of minimum wage vs jobs creation links are difficult to proof and are substituted by Tweetpinions as if they were "just a point of view and a "partisan issue". (2019) https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/03/21/alan-krueger-natural-talentSo, no, an increase in Minimum Wage does not modify new jobs creation within the limits of the data analysed. And again, another result that might be surprising, the influx of immigrants, even in quite substantial amounts, does not lower local salaries.Although, these have to be taken in context, the fact remains that some may be clueless about a topic does not mean that others do not know about it - not all views are equal, not everything is a view. In a study published in 1993, Card looked at what happened to jobs at Burger King, KFC, Wendy’s and Roy Rogers when New Jersey raised its minimum wage from $4.25 to $5.05, using restaurants in bordering eastern Pennsylvania as the control — or comparison — group. Contrary to previous studies, he and his late research partner Alan Krueger found that an increase in the minimum wage had no effect on the number of employees. Card’s research also found that an influx of immigrants into a city doesn’t cost native workers jobs or lower their earnings, though earlier immigrants can be negatively affected.
Card studied the labour market in Miami in the wake of Cuba’s sudden decision to let people emigrate in 1980, leading 125,000 people to leave in what became known as the Mariel Boatlift. It resulted in a 7% increase in the city’s workforce. By comparing the evolution of wages and employment in four other cities, Card discovered no negative effects for Miami residents with low levels of education. Follow-up work showed that increased immigration can have a positive impact on income for people born in the country. |
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That might look impressive, but that infographic is basically comparing apples to oranges, ..
I agree with the principle, you are comparing a currency / commodity with a company whose value is usually appraised at either marketcap, book value or by discounting cashflows. However, there is some value in comparing these magnitudes just to get an idea of the magnitudes that we are speaking about, some short of size comparison like the one you can see in some videos about sizes of objects in the known universe.. A star is not a nebula, but just to give an idea is fine.  |
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To put it into perspective, you could ask when is the role of fiat going to disappear versus gold. As you can see, it is not going to happen. A legal tender is the currency in which taxes and payments can be legally settled in a country. No state is going to voluntarily decide to fully give away their monetary policies just because bitcoin is cool (not even El Salvador has btc only as tender).
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I agree that the current monetary and fiscal policies in US tend to pass the problems to the next decade and looks like will implode either abruptly or just by slow decadence over a period of massive uncertainty. Good for bitcoin and another argument for Bitconia as a country. I am very surprised by the fact that US banks do not have a requirement for a factionary reserve, it is like "below zero interest rates", something that seem contrary to how the system is conceived. <off-topic> I've no idea what's the proper way to spell it. Bitcoin or bitcoin? Capitalizing the first letter seems more like a licensed product rather than a scarce commodity. On the other hand, bitcoin is the unit we've agreed on and it may bring confusion. </off-topic>
I have read somewhere bitcoin for the currency and Bitcoin for the ecosystem / network? |
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Why does this look as a beauty contest? I mean, due to my technical mentality I got the habit of analysing data. I am not a face recognition software so faces are not data, so I would not be able to have a view on any of the ladies here... yet, if I had to give it a try, I wouldn't choose the ones with fancy dresses (they are too busy looking for them) the ones smelling flowers (they are too busy gardening) nor the ones with satanic symbols and visual effects (they are too busy worshiping Satan). That leaves only slightly fat and average looking girls, preferably with googles as everyone know that these are always smarter.
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Bluffing always works for me. Just makes your opponents confused therefore laying them right into your trap....
Bluffing will get you in trouble when you play at a certain level. It is like chess, there are certain strategies and openings that will most likely catch the novice unaware and make him loose the game, but if you try that with a master, you will surely loose as he or she will know how to use it to his or her advantage. Poker is no different, try to bluff with the wrong people and you are done. |
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I can see plenty of prediction across a number of teams and games and it does not seem like there is much justification. I would argue that along with the next prediction, you would need to show the results of the previous ones and perhaps some short of tracking of results, otherwise it will be quite difficult for people to understand if your system is worth paying for.
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