i'm pretty sure they're gonna do what they always do---bubble as well. in 2017 i watched 2014's deadest coins rise from the ashes. there was no fundamental reason for that except that people were desperate to put their money into something, especially if it hadn't pumped yet. because even the shittiest of shit was getting pumped.

i can't imagine that mentality is gonna change the next time bitcoin bubbles. it's always the same thing......."bitcoin is too expensive, i'm gonna buy the next bitcoin".

as long as the bitcoin market itself is propped mostly by speculative value, i think this will continue.

i feel your pain.

fortunately the proof that they control the address in question is quite strong, but your timing couldn't have been worse. you sent this tx just a few days before they were hacked. they are currently overhauling and testing their entire system now and still haven't reopened deposits/withdrawals as a result. they have much bigger problems than you, so i'm sure reconciling your account and returning your funds is not a priority for them.

hopefully they will refund you after they reopen deposits/withdrawals in the next day or two. right now, nobody can get money out of binance.

this was definitely unexpected and i'm glad to see new competitors in the space.

i'm not thrilled to see gemini behind this though given how they are so compliance-minded. as bad as bitpay is, given gemini's track record of really stiff KYC, account terminations upon wire deposit or redemption of GUSD, etc i have to wonder how smooth their payment processing will be.

it seems account-based---you download the app and deposit crypto, then the app deducts from your balance as you spend. like a coinbase debit card where you pay by QR code instead of chip. this will offer a treasure trove of data for transaction clustering/blockchain analysis. i doubt i'll be using it.

or $7500 levels either!

the market was obviously much more heavily oversold than we thought. the ask side has been extremely thin during a time when shorts were extremely high. these conditions created a perfect storm as market demand began spiking upwards. strong demand + weak supply = big pumps.


i'm in agreement with masterluc---this move is far too strong on the daily/weekly chart to try calling the top here.

it's obvious that shorts were over-leveraged, with shorts massively outnumbering longs on bitfinex and the bitmex funding rate going constantly negative over the past week or two. that situation is beginning to even out now as shorts squeeze and bulls buy in, but longs haven't risen above shorts yet. it'll still be a while before longs become overextended IMO.

if we rise to $10k like the master expects, i'm sure longs will be feeling much heavier by then.

i think the outcome is becoming more binary than that.

we established the $3100s bottom 6 months ago. if we go back to retest it now, too much time has passed to expect a double bottom. too much underwater supply will have been established by then. we'll quickly go below $3000. in other words, if we hit $3000, we're likely to hit $1800 and possibly $1200 too.

the other outcome is that the bottom is in. this is my personal view. in that case, i doubt we will go below the $3800-$4200 support zone established over the last few months.

wtf is their goal here? why would anyone ever pay 1.99% for the privilege of using gemini?! this fee schedule is much closer to coinbase's retail broker service rather than any real spot exchange.

their flat 1% fee was already ridiculous compared to their competitors. kraken has 0.16% maker fees and coinbase pro has 0.15%. i don't understand how they plan to compete with these fees.

i do notice this footnote however---"1 “Website application” refers to the interface found at https://exchange.gemini.com and does not refer to the Gemini ActiveTraderTM interface." i'm not sure what the Gemini ActiveTrader interface is but maybe it's like coinbase pro where fees are much lower than the regular coinbase website.

mistake #1 is drastically exaggerating binance's importance. it's an altcoin exchange with zero fiat channels. "most crypto traders and investors" are definitely not holding funds on binance.


binance was lagging behind the other exchanges. they weren't driving this rally.

the price was being driven up much higher/faster on bitstamp, coinbase, and kraken primarily. the USDT market was lagging behind (same as bitfinex) and so was binance's USDC market. this was legit fomo on real fiat exchanges driving the market. it doesn't look like binance had a thing to do with it.

what do you expect from a goldbug? they put all their hopes and dreams into a shiny rock despite the fact that the world is entering the digital age. they are the quintessential luddites of our time.

schiff trashing bitcoin is basically the polar opposite of grayscale's "drop gold for bitcoin" campaign. people on both sides obviously think gold and bitcoin are in direct competition. naturally, people on both sides are gonna shill their bags too!

that sounds doubtful. novogratz always praised bitcoin, but he and his fund have always been shitcoiners at heart. they are heavily invested in ETH. i don't think "ETH people" are paying him to say anything. he has strong biases of his own already.

price-wise, altcoiners will also have their day in the sun again---they always do. i wouldn't dwell on one missed rally.

i'm quite skeptical about these web 3.0 and altcoin claims of his. but i actually agree that bitcoin isn't going to change the world much. it's just money. it may be the best form of money yet, but creating a new type of money isn't revolutionary. it's not going to change how society fundamentally works.

if $3100 wasn't the bottom, then we're nowhere near the bottom. we've consolidated for 6 months above those lows so if we return there, we're not just gonna retest them. we're gonna plunge below them.

after the action we've seen, i'm leaning against that scenario. i think the bottom is in. but i wouldn't rule out returning to the 200wma or the low $4000s one more time.

it's tough to answer the OP's question until we correct downward and establish a higher low on the long term charts. it could be that $5000-$5600 consolidation area. it could be the $4200 area that was tested and retested on the way up. it could be near the 200wma if we go to retest it.

we just pulled back > $800/10% in the last 10 hours. it's been a bloody night. enough pullback for you?

maybe we're just getting started. this guy thinks we've just topped and are dropping back to $4k. he's been pretty on point the last several months: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51017295#msg51017295

we've already just had a 10% drop overnight---9 straight red hourly candles. similar drop in altcoins too. what now?

that may have marked a significant top for BTC. however, one decent possibility is the drop last night was the first leg in a triangle or WXY. a day of sideways could spawn one more leg up towards $8k.

in any case, i think we'll see a dip to sub-$6k in the next week or three. i'm really not quite sure what'll happen to altcoins in this scenario. when BTC does medium term sideways-ish pullbacks, alt/BTC pairs often recover and pump until BTC starts rising again.

breaking the 2018 resistance is a great sign. ideally though, to confirm the bull market, i want to see the $6k zone hold as support once price corrects. we'll probably hit a brick wall somewhere between $7k-$8k and correct downwards.

if bulls absorb all selling pressure in the $6000s and then push back upwards, that will confirm there's no more supply at these levels. we'll also form a higher low on the weekly and monthly charts---another confirmation of a bull market.

i hope this isn't a case of "too far too fast". that was some pretty hasty fomo overnight. today's candle made an 11% move and we're still a few hours from the day's end. we're definitely building up to a harsh pullback, whenever it comes.


$10k in 3 weeks is definitely too far too fast. slow and steady growth would be ideal. the longer it takes to rise, the stronger the support will be on the way up.

it doesn't. we just need hype. the inflow of capital will be distributed across whatever listings the market has to offer. fundamentals don't matter for shit during strong bull markets. whatever the catalyst is, it's price charts that creates the bullish feedback loop where hype begets hype.

that's why i wouldn't frame 2017 like ICOs were the driver. i don't think they were per se. i think there was very weak supply and excess demand heading into 2017 and the first winklevoss ETF denial triggered a move into alts. there are always such triggers. in every bubble, there is a symbiotic relationship akin to sector rotation in stocks where money flows back and forth between BTC and alts instead of BTC and fiat. ICO upon ICO was launched to suck up that capital, but if not ICOs, we would have seen all that capital flow into other altcoins instead.

i have mixed feelings about that. i don't think wex launched with any ill intentions. btc-e got all their $$ nabbed by its payment processors and the feds (along with domain, servers, etc). the first thing they did was refund 55-60% of all account value to users. they issued tokens for the debt, some of which they repaid over time. they seemed to have every intention of making good.

obviously something happened in june/july 2018. i'm not sure if it was a botched transfer of ownership, some sort of robbery or compromise, or something else. there are some suspicions the admins robbed the exchange at that point (and shut down withdrawals) to fund vinnik's fight against extradition to the USA. to me, that's when it became a scam. i don't see why they would pay back 60% of the money, run an exchange for a year, and then scam if it was a scam from the very beginning.


why though? they're not haircutting user funds (and stealing them). they're compensating users for everything.

the fact that bitfinex is trading below the other exchanges now suggests that most of the buying pressure is coming from elsewhere at this point. add the fact that shorts are obviously being squeezed on bitfinex too---about 4k BTC shorts have closed into this pump over $6k---it's obvious the rally isn't hinging on bitfinex anymore. quite reminiscent of 2017 if you ask me.

it's not that any entities have control over the market. smart whales are just following the path of least resistance, which was obviously UP.

here's an interesting twist. just like 2017, what began as an exodus from bitfinex is snowballing into a legit rally.

not only have the other exchanges caught up to bitfinex, but stamp and coinbase are now $60-70 above bitfinex now! it's amazing how much cash was sitting on the sidelines on non-margin exchanges just waiting to pile into the market.

"safu" is just a word for "binance's reserves". it's already their money. i'm pretty sure the optics around getting hacked are not worth the payoff for binance no matter what.

side note, their usage of "safu" is not in the best taste either. it always irked me. the name is poking fund at wex users, who as we all know, lost everything.