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30241  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 08:16:49 PM
http://techcrunch.com/2014/03/08/googles-jared-cohen-its-obvious-bitcoin-like-currencies-are-inevitable/

Google now jumping in. Already seeing a rise but not sure if Cohen's statement is why.

But maybe.


He is using my nick Smiley
Quote
Google Director of Ideas and former technology advisor to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Jared Cohen, says that digital “crypto-currencies” like Bitcoin are here to stay.


Are you going to file for trademark infringement or copyright infringement?  Or glory in the added publicity to your cause?    Undecided
30242  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 08:01:04 PM
If a bank creates a BTC fund they make money every time someone buys or sells a stake in that fund. If people want an easy way to buy or sell BTC (and I suspect they do), then the banks will want to profit from that need.

...and it's also possible they want their own positions; I assume if that's the case they're already buying (and I haven't looked for evidence of that).

Unlikely they're buying anything right now.  The total dollar value in play on the exchanges is so small any activity on their part would change the market. 
It's the same reason big investment blocks don't play with penny stocks.  There just isn't money to made on the scale a bank would be interested in

Add to that the fact that the exchanges at this point are unreliable. Banks aren't about to put money into something they can't easily get it back out of.



I agree for the reasons stated by Tailor that it is likely that large and medium financial institutions are almost completely out of investing in BTC... and additionally, if any large or medium financial institution were to begin to invest in BTC in order to attempt to manipulate it... they may consider themselves caught in a sort of catch 22.... b/c adding Fiat to BTC drives up the price.... .. but strategically, they could attempt to come in to BTC covertly and to buy up BTC supplies... and once in use their large quantity of BTC to manipulate BTC prices..... I sense that medium and large institutions consider BTC to be too small potatoes, at this point.


30243  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 05:11:27 PM
whats the reason for this down-syndrome ?

I don't know but I think it is uncertainty regarding the movement of old coins that could be tied to MtGox.  Here is the latest discussion:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zvx7i/coinsight_now_shows_another_160000_btc_transaction/

There is a "special page" on coinsight regarding Mtgox BTC transactions with some note : "Mt.Gox reports at least the following types of transactions through this API: withdrawals, dust sweeping, big output splitting. Some transactions have been spotted on this API recently with multiple successful block confirmations, which could just be a result of Mt.Gox wallet software not seeing the confirmations or could be new undocumented API behavior." :

http://coinsight.org/mtgox/largest

It looks like we also have blockchain evidence that a large sum of old coins was just moved:

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

(I think people tend to over react to large bitcoin-days-destroyed events, however.)


I bought a little at $607 - hoping that we are NOT going any lower....  As I type, we continue to float in that price territory....  Yet if we do go lower, then I suppose my next buy price will be around $570-ish or lower.. depending upon how long it takes to get to that price, if at all.   I do tend to think that we have a hard time shooting to the moon with this potential damning news regarding the bitcoin foundation hanging over our heads to be released some time on Monday.




30244  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 05:16:01 AM
Based on this current downtrend in BTC prices (over the last couple of days)... I guess the BTC market remains a little worried about additional negative and uncertainties in the news, such as: GOX moving of coins, Japanese declaration of BTC as a non-currency and this twobit guy potentially outing the foundation members on Monday...   Maybe those news items are driving our current downward (sell) pressure.    

I have no idea about what the price may do over the weekend.  Even my "Slumber" predictions, for ~20--24 h ahead, are not expected to hold  if there is too much volume late into the night -- and there seems to be no way of predicting those Albertosaurs.

However, I believe that the Chinese exchanges are the main drivers of the price, simbply because they are 80% of the volume, and appear to have greater liquidity.  However, their traders do not seem to be very much tuned into bitcoin news.  Most of those news are about developments in the West that have no impact in China.  If the Chinese react to some development (like the Bloomberg rumor), it is because some Western exchange reacted strongly to it first (so strongly that arbitrage was overwhelmed), and then the Chinese went into panic buy or panic sell.  That is my impression.

EDIT: typos.


You may be correct that is why sometimes we get these BTC price spike reactions that seem to be disconnected from anything that we can really wrap our minds around besides pure momentum -  driven by volume, largely from chinese exchanges, as you mentioned... even though sometimes it is alleged that aspects of the chinese volume is fake.... but sometimes it seems logical to achieve even additional volume when the trading fees are zero or close to zero.
30245  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 04:50:48 AM
Somebody is trying to reinforce the Weekend Dip myth =)


You mean like a whale or a bot?    I get the sense that these whales and bots are somewhat limited in how much they can do... surely they can manipulate, but they have to take advantage of public sentiment, so some extent... and if public sentiment is NOT strong, then the whales and/or bots can edge the price in one direction or another.. ... That's my current thinking on the bots whale situation and their ability to manipulate... .. unless of course, if they are NOT profit motivated, then that could change the dynamics more, even though it would cost the manipulator more money to accomplish the objective... b/c that kind of manipulator would be likely to be running at a loss just to get their way.. such as keeping the price down.
30246  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 04:00:07 AM

NOTE: Thanks for the user who proposed a pterosaur for extreme bullish predictions.  Now looking for an ichtyosaur to match.


It's more that Nemicolopterus crypticus is clearly a Chinese chicken.  And based on its name, a cryptographic chicken to boot. 

http://news.nationalgeographic.com.au/news/2008/02/080211-mini-pterosaur.html

But happy to be of service in any event.



bullish or bearish.. over the weekend...  


Based on this current downtrend in BTC prices (over the last couple of days)... I guess the BTC market remains a little worried about additional negative and uncertainties in the news, such as: GOX moving of coins, Japanese declaration of BTC as a non-currency and this twobit guy potentially outing the foundation members on Monday...   Maybe those news items are driving our current downward (sell) pressure.     

I am a dollar cost averaging kind of guy when it comes to BTC.. but I want to time my multiple small purchases to low points in the price... to the extent possible.. and the extent reasonably predictable... .. So maybe over the weekend, we may hit $580?  Possibly?    Or should I just suck it up and buy at $610-ish..., if we return to that point (which we are nearing such price, as I type - we are bouncing down to $619-ish.. as I am typing)?   

Certainly, if we can establish some kind of reason that BTC is going lower in price in the near future, then I will wait out and buy at that lower price point.





30247  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 03:40:59 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQmIRea_FWo

he dosnt say "i'm no longer Involved"  he clearly says "I'm Not Involved in Bitcoin"

but i'm starting to think its him

watch this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrrtA6IoR_E
he is sooo lying

He sounds like he has absolutely no clue what Bitcoin is. I can't fathom how people can actually think this is THE Satoshi Nakamoto. Are they blind or do they want to believe it's him so much they can't think and see properly anymore? I don't get it it's just beyond stupid.


Each of us get different senses of the situation... when I see someone live or video and then I see how they are responding verbally and physically... with Dorian, I get the sense he is overcompensating...... and b/c of that I get the sense that he may be the real one...     but then I do NOT see the whole conversation, just clips, here and there.

Then, I agree that he does NOT want to be bothered and he wants to deny, and that denial should be respected. 

The ONLY reason that we in the bitcoin world may have a right to know SN and his intentions is that if he realizes that he has about a million BTC, and he decides to begin to move those BTC... b/c of some reason, such as his anonymity having been breached.  Then we may need to know what he intends to do with those BTC.. dump them or to distribute them more widely... .. b/c dumping large quantities of BTC would have a traumatic effect on BTC prices...

And, there may be some other reasons, that it may be good to know about the real SN.... . even though overall, I kind of agree with the sentiment that it does NOT matter so much, so long as the real SN wishes to remain anonymous or unknown.. so long as he does NOT do something extreme with the BTC under his potential control.

30248  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 01:34:10 AM

  Yeah... transfer whatever BTC there is 180K-ish to NEW wallets, and sell the user data...

All these transactions would be accomplished in the process of transferring ownership to the NEW exchange that will be opening soon..... maybe under supervision of bankruptcy oversight?
30249  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 12:55:26 AM
If you look at the daily closing prices, you could see something like this:



And if you look at the 3-day closing prices, you could see a double bottom pattern (right now testing the neckline):





The first chart depicts three potholes - illustrating that our trip to the moon has been delayed by three potholes in the BTC road that leads us to the rocket launch pad.
30250  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2014, 08:03:58 PM
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ztyp9/the_twobit_idiot_coup_or_death_for_the_bitcoin/

2-bit guy now claims that foundation members had inside info and were able to get their money out while everyone else got screwed. He is threatening to release info on Monday. Interesting.

Quote
To Peter, Jon and their supporters:

You have 72 hours.


holy fuck

That is fair to give foundation members 72 hours to come clean... I sense that this kind of negative publicity is NOT good for bitcoin.. but it does seem to be the way of the world that certain positions allow access to information and privilege that may not be afforded to regular people....   HOW far does it go?  HM?
30251  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2014, 06:47:27 PM
NATO jets going to Lithuania, Poland.

OSCE observers blocked from entering Ukraine.

GHWBush carrier group in the Med near Greece, battlegroup missile destroyer Truxton enters the Black Sea.

Russian media accuses Lithuania of training Ukrainian "extremists".

Moldovan P.M. requests U.S. military to contain Putin.  (Transdneistra is occupied by Russian troops.)


Looks like NATO wants to commemorate 15 years since the start of bombing of Yugoslavia by starting to bomb Ukraine.

 


Maybe they will go straight to Moscow...?    GO BIG!!!!!

30252  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2014, 06:39:35 PM
 Duplicate
30253  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2014, 06:36:43 PM
any bad news, or are we going down because low price going slightly lower is scary?
180,000 gox coins moving around

helloww, you cant be seriously thinking such "info" is effecting the price?
whats happening is just that there hasnt been a whale pumping the price for a while now and people just start cashing out. simple.




WE can rely on HdBuck to provide a NON-SENSICAL explanation.   WE know that both whales and regular people take advantage of momentum.. and the whales sometimes manipulate to see how far they can push it or exacerbate it to their further advantage.

any bad news, or are we going down because low price going slightly lower is scary?
180,000 gox coins moving around

They are being divided up into smaller and smaller wallets until they reach the approximate value of a single frappuccino.

Then, he will be able to quickly purchase millions of frappuccinos ... one quick booster shot at a time.
30254  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2014, 05:56:24 PM
Andreas Antonopoulos has set up a fund to donate money to Dorian Nakamoto - if anyone's interested you can find the Reddit thread here.

Quote
Hi everyone, Andreas M. Antonopoulos here.
I'm fundraising for Dorian Nakamoto, the person named in the newsweak article.
I have no idea if this person is Satoshi, though it seems increasingly unlikely. However, it doesn't matter either way. If this person is Satoshi, then the funds are a small "thanks" and won't make much of a difference.
However, if this person is not Satoshi, then these funds will serve as a "sorry for what happened to you", help with medical bills his family is facing, any legal bills they may incur, or anything else. Most of all, it serves to soften the damage caused by irresponsible journalism and to demonstrate the generosity and empathy of the community, which I know is huge
Here's how it will work. I will collect donations to a single bitcoin address, posted below, with the following rules:
Donations accepted until the end of March.
At the end of March, donations will be converted to USD and delivered to Dorian Nakamoto.
If the donation is rejected by Dorian, then the funds will go to a charity of his choice
If he doesn't want to choose a charity, funds will be donated to the Electronic Frontier Foundation
Any funds sent after the deadline, will be donated to Dorian at a later date, or a charity of his choice or EFF as above.
After the end of March, I will make my best effort to contact Dorian and deliver the donations in USD. I will document as much of that process as possible to prove the donations were delivered, as long as that documentation does not affect Dorian's privacy.
The blockchain will provide transparency of all funds donated, which will not move from that address until the funds are delivered to the intended recipient based on the rules above.

The donation address is:
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Hash: SHA1
Donations for Dorian Nakamoto: 1Dorian4RoXcnBv9hnQ4Y2C1an6NJ4UrjX -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: GnuPG v1.4.13 (Darwin) Comment: GPGTools - http://gpgtools.org[1]
iQIcBAEBAgAGBQJTGfpbAAoJEDObAhCxYy501RoQANnJtZYPVqo2d/M2vcbNBfQ0 zUnFum+B4YxrjIeRkM4m9mDvnRWN3xccUARFi7QeW4C9qnuvKJOUMHX4Iw48sBgD liXGEVUqkvvUPNkeS0QY5kdD+H/8xFxtlKrowzKFweZBU44HOnz00yISRW/Q4wIi THUTiorZESNi8+2yaIvAW6HViS8jSD7GM37Xfe/s5lhOjKe30LnFRrlDBmveMS8p vxOwB6WgyradedlyqoWTMsH7wj/9vRw0aPCsaCnSTIwG0tkSDcTQf83pPHxYpi6B gGPxXoGC/TOt0yCQRclHSYm92e+fJiEApq3JUOLVxGAmAk9qF7B8dL5tcq5C71fb H48cEe91tNv9L9nyluPxpZnMcd+Qfc38EtKviTkDazpdU7M30J2ttP2amfh4PDkW W+ABvKjyy/MO8j4YHGUCZA9YxgAAoY2yvk1Cf4lHNA/c5Pg3aE8B2rt0wx8fbGoY jyHn3w/0Ty4yhWfpp+cMAeZuIqL4MJMBl2e28pgm7B5Kum8rt/jWreEyRQpCuwRK eIgdGBZpv5UjR/3TL9GC1xcRDcXPGcrVCngOQFUr/3oQ3Zibhxk0z26bvLpYTdvc 9o0VJP3rO8R31Nim1F629/hmklHUwS+nvPH/u/jgswKl4cWB29dVszj3ubB5Opry [2] BjZ8H0MoTbE8KNH9XZaO =dp1E -----END PGP SIGNATURE-----

My PGP key for blockchain.info email address is well known, widely disseminated and can be validated by many others. Use only the address above for donations, all other addresses are scams


That is REALLY ingenious.  I like it.



30255  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2014, 05:48:12 PM
it is a tough thread to keep up with, you got an avatar, you get a pass

How do I get an avatar?

you had to have one uploaded before the hack


What hack?   And, are we gonna get the feature back... I mean, I would like to have my own personal avatar. 




As I wrote that it is absurd that we were going up, everybody was bashing on me and was writing "to the moon"  Cheesy

Now we go down and these morons are silent.

Thanks to your "to tha moon" BS I also get in panic and bought @685 with every money I had (50K). And now I´m fucked.

Surely we are all making estimates about what to do based on our information and knowledge.. .and sometimes based on what others say. 

In my thinking it is pretty unlikely that you are fucked at that $685 buy-in price, unless you sell and lock in your losses  then you would be fucked.  My average buy in price is around that same amount and I am NOT worried (but I only have invested about half that amount, so far, and my investments are diversified.... into other things as well.... so I am prepared to lose all, if things were to go too sour). 

Anyhow, I am buying more BTC if the price goes into the $500s, which may be soon... but I only buy in small increments.. maybe 1 BTC at a time, or less.  if the price goes lower, I will buy more.. but I also have a buy budget... only a certain amount at a time. 

I'm NOT selling or considering selling based on the news that I have NOW in front of me (unless I know for sure the price is going further down by like 10% from my sell, then I may attempt to increase my holdings buy buying back in at the lower price).  At this time, I expect that if I were to sell, then the price would reverse and start to go back up. 

Also, I expect within a week or so, we should be back into the upper 600s... and within a couple of weeks.. maybe stretching out into the 1 month time frame we should be between 750 and 850 area....

Of course, I could be wrong... and that wouldn't be the first time... .. so we each need to go with our gut and our risk profile and our current diversification of investments to make our decisions.

I know, normaly I would not panic because I bought in november for 14k @780 and was chilled all the time. But now I´m only worried becaude of these hundrets of thousands of Bitcoin movements from the wallets since yesterday. So I was a bit in panic mode.


Are you an ALL or NOTHING kind of investor?   

Personally, I would become too stressed, if I were to put too much fiat at any one price.   

Surely, I have been somewhat nervous that I began investing in BTC at its peak... in late November at $1200, but I am very glad that I currently have brought down my BTC buy in average to a little below $700... but I started during a rush up in prices... and I wanted to get in to get started... and in November  I bought 1.24 BTC for $1500 or something like that.... got my feet wet and bought little by little, thereafter. ...

Now I have about 36 BTC.. something like that.... And, like I said, if we get into the $500s, again, I will buy a little more BTC..  I get a bit nervous when the price is dropping b/c the value of my whole BTC holdings are dropping and also I get nervous b/c I am NOT sure what my next BTC buy point should be... I would like to purchase for as cheap as possible.. but I do NOT want to miss the boat, if the price dips and then raises again..   That's somewhat an individual guestimate.. and sometimes I will get a bit spontaneous and buy a little here and there just to make sure I get some. I'm thinking 1 BTC at $580... and then if it goes below $550 to buy another and then $530 buy a couple more... that would pretty much max out my March buying limit.




30256  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2014, 05:01:26 PM
As I wrote that it is absurd that we were going up, everybody was bashing on me and was writing "to the moon"  Cheesy

Now we go down and these morons are silent.

Thanks to your "to tha moon" BS I also get in panic and bought @685 with every money I had (50K). And now I´m fucked.

Surely we are all making estimates about what to do based on our information and knowledge.. .and sometimes based on what others say. 

In my thinking it is pretty unlikely that you are fucked at that $685 buy-in price, unless you sell and lock in your losses  then you would be fucked.  My average buy in price is around that same amount and I am NOT worried (but I only have invested about half that amount, so far, and my investments are diversified.... into other things as well.... so I am prepared to lose all, if things were to go too sour). 

Anyhow, I am buying more BTC if the price goes into the $500s, which may be soon... but I only buy in small increments.. maybe 1 BTC at a time, or less.  if the price goes lower, I will buy more.. but I also have a buy budget... only a certain amount at a time. 

I'm NOT selling or considering selling based on the news that I have NOW in front of me (unless I know for sure the price is going further down by like 10% from my sell, then I may attempt to increase my holdings buy buying back in at the lower price).  At this time, I expect that if I were to sell, then the price would reverse and start to go back up. 

Also, I expect within a week or so, we should be back into the upper 600s... and within a couple of weeks.. maybe stretching out into the 1 month time frame we should be between 750 and 850 area....

Of course, I could be wrong... and that wouldn't be the first time... .. so we each need to go with our gut and our risk profile and our current diversification of investments to make our decisions.


30257  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2014, 04:41:16 PM
it is a tough thread to keep up with, you got an avatar, you get a pass

How do I get an avatar?
30258  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2014, 04:33:17 PM


I don't understand the meaning of 143 million days destroyed... ...?  What could that mean...?   I mean 500 thousand years destroyed... but none of us are going to live that long.. and so what's the significance?






the way you have been throwing your weight around in here lately I expected better


I have little weight to throw around.   Sad
30259  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2014, 08:33:45 AM

I don't understand the meaning of 143 million days destroyed... ...?  What could that mean...?   I mean 500 thousand years destroyed... but none of us are going to live that long.. and so what's the significance?



Coinage is a way of separating cold wallets and coins that are not in circulation from those that are regularly spent.
Basically any coin that is not involved in a transaction starts to accumulate coin age. It is a way of measuring if "old" money is being re-activated The amount of coin age "destroyed" tells you basically how many coins that have been sitting in addresses for a long time have been re-activated and used in transactions


Thank you.  I believe that I understand now... Nothing of value is really being "destroyed," but instead we have a measurement of the reactivation of a bunch of fairly dormant coins to create that many days of coinage destroyed in one pop.  On reddit they had calculated it to be an average of 800 days per coin, which makes them on average late 2011 or early 2012 since they had been last activated.

There are quite a few bad news scenarios, but definitely a good news scenario would be if they were gox coins and showing that gox still had access to some capital.  If these coins are NOT connected to gox, then there could be a number of scenarios.
30260  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2014, 08:02:13 AM

Satoshi's coins are all untouched 50 bitcoin block rewards. Is that what has been moved in this link? I haven't bothered to click the link.

Nope , those coins are still untouched. Probably gox coins.
2011 coins Wink. Some old stuff.

I read through the Reddit thread, and the movement of the 180K BTC seems to be ongoing, and guys posting in that thread are following the movement(s) of the BTC and trying to figure out the significance, exactly of what is going on and whose coins they are and what is happening with them. 

I don't understand the meaning of 143 million days destroyed... ...?  What could that mean...?   I mean 500 thousand years destroyed... but none of us are going to live that long.. and so what's the significance?




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