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30301  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2014, 07:05:18 AM


It seems that those investors whose expected value is 1,000 USD or more are very few, and they have run out of money; otherwise they would keep buying BTCs until the price gets over their expectation. 

Therefore, most of the "loaded" traders have expected values less than 700 USD right now.  To get that value they must assign  very small probability to "bitcoin will be eventually worth more than 700,000 dollars".  Specifically, they think that the chances of that happening are less than 1 in 1000. (Even if they do not externalize that probability, it is implicit in their reluctance to pay more than 700$ for one bitcoin.).  



Actually the fact that investors are only willing to pay $700 at the moment is NOT merely b/c they believe that there is a 1/1000 chance of bitcoin reaching 700,000.  Instead, a large number of investors recognize the price of BTC as a moving target, and s/he would rather buy 7 BTC for $700 rather than 1BTC for $700.    When the price fluctuates so much investors calculate when to get in or to get out based on predictions that are truly difficult to predict - except the whales and the bots have a higher ability to predict the short term and to profit by the short term.. even though bots and whales cannot be certain about long term outcomes.
30302  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2014, 06:55:14 AM
Gotta hand it to Tera with his/her 666

667 is the geometric mean of the Stamp ATH and post-ATH low. It is logical for the price to gravitate there now that the gox-shock has faded.


I have a difficult time thinking that any of this gravitation of bitcoin price around 666 is natural... Surely we have momentum that whales and bots cannot control.. but some of these coincidences of gravitations are likely bot/whale manipulated... . Whales can keep us up and keep us down within a range... take for example the sell $700 wall on bitstamp... if the momentum seems too great, then that sell wall will get pulled and put at $720... however, in the meantime, the whale got his way to keep prices below $700 and then to move downward in order that he can buy new BTC at $666 from his $700 sales...

Nice deal for those who have the means to manipulate... I am ONLY resentful to the extent that I do NOT Have those means and that ability, yet if I did have those means and that ability, it is likely that I probably would use that kind of manipulation to make sure and easy money.


30303  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2014, 06:43:29 AM

So, how can one honestly recommend investing into bitcoin as a hedge against a possible dollar collapse, as a way of becoming a millionaire, or whatever the "salesmen" are saying these days?  It is like buying a ticket for a crazy lottery that does not tell its clients what are the odds and prizes, and may or may not be seeking to lose money.


Definitely, I appreciate you discussion of value and predicted value in terms of a lottery ticket; however, with all your smartness, you are certainly missing some essential points about bitcoin.  

First: Bitcoin does NOT need to win the lottery or have some exorbitant pay off in order for it to be of considerable value.  Actually, even if bitcoin maintains its value flat, it is doing a heck of a lot better than the dollar b/c the dollar is inevitably programmed to shrink in value due to dilution (too much expansion of the supply).    

So, you go wrong in a couple of respects regarding your bitcoin/lottery discussion, the first, as referred to above, is the anticipation that some major payoff is needed in order for bitcoin to be successful.  

Second:  The other aspect that you go wrong is to expect that any investment in BTC has to be for a predetermined number of years.  Markets have inevitably shown that investors are capable of playing their investments by ear and to go with the flow with whatever the investors perceive to be best to provide them with an acceptable return. ... and even though at this particular moment, bitcoin may be among the best of the long term crypto-currencies, yet if another and better cryptocurrency comes along, then certainly bitcoin money can be moved into that new and better investment.  So bitcoin does not need to be the best forever, it ONLY needs to be the best for the moment.  That expression .. ."dont let the perfect be the enemy of the good."





30304  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2014, 06:24:35 AM
wow so many people think it'll break $800 this week? How come?

To me, this $800 by the end of the week seems more like a wish of an outcome rather than a prediction of a very likely occurrence.  Surely, bitcoin has been volatile in the preceding months; however, what brought bitcoin into the $500s and then into the $400s within the past couple of weeks was a series of bad news events (china and mt gox and other concerns about bitcoin securty) and likely manipulation(by whales and bots) - yet I remain of the belief that Bitcoin cannot so easily overcome the downward pressure of such negative news and manipulation within the span of the week.

Personally, I DO believe that around this time in bitcoin history $800 would be a comfortable and reasonable floating point for a few weeks while some of the bitcoin news, expansion and network gets sorted out.. including continuing to let the travesty of the Mt. Gox circumstances sink in sufficiently in order that we are able to mourn somewhat before moving on to next higher grounds.  

Certainly, it seems that NONE of us here truly know the direction of bitcoin or have crystal balls - even though some of us here claim to be more omniscient than others.  I certainly cannot predict the irrational aspects and also the exponential growth potential of bitcoin.  Surely I believe that $650 to $750 would be manageable for this week, but likely we will NOT reach any kind of stable $800 ... I do expect also that possibly for a month or three or four  that we will regularly experiencing sub $1000 territory.. until we likely begin to transition past new ATH territory and into the $1500 arena.. for a while.... before going further up.... maybe 2-4k would be reachable by the end of the calendar year.. and maybe 6-8k by the end of 2015... ... of course speculation, to some extent.. but certainly conservative speculation, in my thinking.... so long as bitcoin does NOT become undermined in some major way in the interrim.
30305  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2014, 03:50:15 AM
looks like we still got a few bears that think they know better,
bears prepare to wake up dazed and confused as you look upon other flag pole formation and price at 741.POWNED!!!!

 Cheesy

This looks like the same scenario as when I traded in December. It's bouncing between 650 and 700.  Undecided Well, I'll wait until 680 to 700 and sell. Then buy back at 650.   Smiley End up going to sleep. Sold at 700. Wake up at 750.  Cry


I believe that this is one of the problems with the Whale/Bots controlling the price situation.  Certainly, they cannot completely control the long-term upward momentum, but they can control the stability periods and right when a real person investor believes that s/he senses a pattern, then the whale bot takes the matter in another direction or takes the matter out of what had seemed to be a predictable range of swings.  It is real bullshit, but maybe NOT a lot that a real small fish investor can do about the situation if s/he does NOT have the resources.  Just have to time the matter to the best extent, and also it seems pretty certain that investing in the long-term should be a good bet with BTC.




30306  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2014, 01:03:13 AM

Go back to school and you will know where Slovenia is. It seems it is leading country for cryptocurrency trading. Still waiting for someone else from respectful country like yours to show something better.
Some have Hitler and Bosh, some have Bush and you, but we have Bitstamp.


Anyway, the 'glitch' was just the begining.


All your bitcoins are belong to us.

According to Wikipedia, Slovenia wasn't even a country until 1991, by which time I was out of school. It was part of Yugoslavia before that, which makes sense. Bitstamp code is to computer engineering as the Yugo was to automotive engineering.





I mean, seriously, how fucked and out of this world and some general knowledge, one has to be to need Wikipedia to find out about Slovenia.

But gues, it's not strange since Bush was on one meeting in Slovenia back at his president time and said - "I'm so glad to finally visit Slovakia."

You Americans are such fucktards sometimes  Grin

Wikipedia is a very useful tool. Like any info, if it is important you will cross check it with other sources.
  My maps all have USSR on them  Grin  It says nothing about my formal education, it means only that I am old and don't really have any reason to study Europe. I have no idea what the current divisions in Africa are either. So?  Be assured that I will learn what I need to know before I visit there, since it will probably change three more times before I get there in approximately... oh, never.



YOUR name is explorer.... So get yourself to africa... or at least some other parts of the globe... NO?






30307  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2014, 12:51:44 AM
Soon time to sleep Smiley want to wake up and see 750$.


NiteNite.


Surely, soon we are going to get to $750.  Probably, it is NOT unrealistic to arrive within 24 hours - though I am thinking for sure by next week we will be in the $750 to $850 range.
30308  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 11:00:43 PM
I've been pretty bullish lately but I do have one concern. The injection of fiat into bitstamp order books seems to have stopped. There isn't any more fiat on the books nows than there was in the past week in the 500 levels. The amount of selling (in btc) to reach 400 is exactly the same and the total amount of fiat on the books is actually LESS because all the bids in the 300s and 200s were removed.  If I don't see another fiat injection in the next week, I am going to get really concerned.


A bull may be transformed into a bear?

Do you have to have a Bitstamp account to view this information?

 I do NOT have an account, but I can view the bid and ask order books - but only back so far.  Currently, with the price at $663, I can see between $530 and $796.  I did NOT know that anyone could view beyond those order price points.



http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD

Thanks a lot for that.  

I guess personally the significance is NOT quite sinking in.  I understand your point that it would be more difficult for bitcoin to go up in price if fiat is NOT coming into exchanges in order to allow for BTC purchases. I suppose that you are suggesting that you would like to see more fiat come in, in order to prices to go up?  I do NOT really see much fluctuation in the chart in current times, However, in early November it appeared that a lot of dollars went into exchanges preceding the rise in BTC prices.




on high volume days stamps can trade over 100K coins
pretty sure >90% of depth is off the books
dont worry about it


Yeah whether the trades are on or off the books, I would imagine, unless there are considerable extremes, the numbers are NOT really going to affect predicting prices.













30309  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 10:44:06 PM
so its official stamps is the new gox

we're all going to get stamped!

 Grin



my impression from my, admittedly brief, tenure over on the cool kids forum was that the smart money is on BTC-e...believe it or not


What is "smart" money?  As compared with non-smart money?



I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people.

So do the libertarians.

I may have overstated this point to some extent - b/c I recognize that there may exist several flavors of libertarianism...

My main point is that i do NOT view govt as the problem.  However, I do believe that too much money influence in buying politicians is more frequently the problem that makes our government go awry.... ... ultimately, money should NOT be used to purchase politicians or to divert them from representing the will of the people.


I was being a little obtuse but my point was that libertarians do not believe that "the will of the people" is the be-all and end-all of what is right. Central to most right-libertarian philosophy is the non-aggression principle and democracy is two wolves and a lamb deciding what to have for dinner.


Yeah... maybe each of us is being a little obtuse b/c I am NOT really very inclined to get into some in-depth political debate about whether or NOT libertarianism is a good idea or even necessarily to discuss the role of the vote, representation, the will of the people or money in politics.  

Even though politics may in several ways come to bear in the discussion of bitcoin and other crypto-currencies,  I was personally attempting to make the point that whether a person believes in bitcoin or NOT does NOT necessarily have to concern whether he believes in big government or NOT.  

Frequently, there can be tensions with various competing ideologies concerning the largess and the role of govt, yet in the end,   it DOES NOT seem to be black and white - especially when it comes to blanket statements concerning whether govt should be big or small....
30310  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 10:27:03 PM
I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people.

So do the libertarians.

Richy, there is no point in arguing with JayJuanGee because he is one of those who plant false flags in order to make points based on unsound positions.

Libertarians believe in small limited government, which is the concept of the US, at least for the first 200 years. But liars and liberals such as JayJuanGee find it easiest to go around saying that liberatians believe in zero government and complete anarchy, because their positions have zero backing.


WOW.....

From where do you get your information?  Sounds as if you know me or something (with some preconceived and whimsical notions about who is "JayJuanGee")  hehehe  

Also, from your post, it sounds as if you want to get into labeling, personal bashing, politics and argument for the sake of argument.. for some unknown reason.  

Otherwise, nice to meet you, Rocks, and if you are interested in communicating via PM, then I look forward to such.
30311  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 10:20:29 PM
Still waiting for 300k bitcoins so I can be a millionaire.

My guess, maybe by summer 2015? lol


WOW...... NOW that is really pie in the sky thinking...   I can imagine a world with $300K bitcoins, but that will probably be a bit further into the future.. maybe 2025-ish? or 2035?  Probably the best that we could expect by 2015 would be around $20K... but more realistically $10K...   NEVER say NEVER, though.
30312  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 10:11:59 PM
I am going to get really concerned.

You should. Now we see the bull trap unfold.


The ongoing battle about what it is..... the bulls say that we are seeing a prolonged bear trap and the bears say that we are seeing a bull trap... hehehehe

The mere fact that you refer to them as cryptocoins tells me that you're ready to start giving sound market analysis.  Roll Eyes

I say "cryptocoins" rather than "bitcoin" because bitcoin is obviously only one of them, and any of them would serve for that otiginal goal.

-you don't own any "cryptocoins"

One excuse for that is that it helps me keep neutral.  Fom watching the bitcoin scene, I now strongly suspect that if I owned  even one bitcon, I would start looking for "bullish" facts and thoughts and ignoring "bearish" ones, would prefer models that show its price going up, would wish for more people to invest in it, would wish for the other altcoins to fail, ....


I respect your claim to remain neutral; however, you should at least go through the process of purchasing 1 BTC or some fragment of a BTC (eg  .1 BTC).   Your investment does NOT need to be a lot in order to improve your experiencial knowledge.
30313  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 09:38:39 PM
I've been pretty bullish lately but I do have one concern. The injection of fiat into bitstamp order books seems to have stopped. There isn't any more fiat on the books nows than there was in the past week in the 500 levels. The amount of selling (in btc) to reach 400 is exactly the same and the total amount of fiat on the books is actually LESS because all the bids in the 300s and 200s were removed.  If I don't see another fiat injection in the next week, I am going to get really concerned.


A bull may be transformed into a bear?

Do you have to have a Bitstamp account to view this information?

 I do NOT have an account, but I can view the bid and ask order books - but only back so far.  Currently, with the price at $663, I can see between $530 and $796.  I did NOT know that anyone could view beyond those order price points.


30314  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 08:46:19 PM
This guy showed his hand weeks ago.

I have stated my position several times, but for those who did not see it:

* Cryptocoins are a great invention, and I wish that they succeed in their original goal -- a method of payment through the internet, especially across national borders, that is safe, cheap, convenient, fast, etc.  I wish that, and I would love to use them if and when I think that they are better for me than credit cards or other existing means.  I wish that, but I do not think that the chances are good. (One shoudl never confuse "desire" with "expectation".)

* I am not a libertarian. I believe that governments are useful and necessary, and we should fight to democratize and improve them rather than abolish them. I see the libertarians' idea of getting rid of governments as sheer lunacy. (For one thing, if you don't have your own strong democratic government, other people will gladly and forcibly lend you theirs.)  And I see their hope that bitcoin will let them build their utopia outside the reach of governments as lunacy squared.

* Adults have the right to do whatever they want with their money (within limits of law and ethics, of course), including investing it in whatever they like, gambling it, or even throwing it away.  

* In particular, I do not care care if someone buys a lottery ticket when he is fully aware of the odds, or trades it with some fellow gambler who is equally aware of them.  

* However, if I see someone buying a lottery ticket because he thinks it is a good investment, I feel this Darwinian duty (magnified by professional habit) to inform that fellow primate about the odds, expected value, and all that.  If the guy does not believe me, then, shrug,  that is his problem.  And, of course, I consider myself excused of that duty if  I think that the guy may steal my bananas, or if he snarled some unfriendly noises at me.

* Finally, when someone tries to convince others to buy lottery tickets, by telling them that it is a good investment, when his motive is actually to make a profit out of their "investment" -- then that guy is a scammer, and should go to jail.



I agree with a large number of your points and subpoints however, I do NOT understand why  bitcoin and/or some other crypto-currencies cannot fit within your world view.  In other words, neither bitcoin nor other crypto-currencies need to be incompatible with your world view.  We can still have government and crypto-currencies.  I recognize that there are a lot of libertarians in the crypto-currency space; however, I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people... I also believe that crypto currencies can facilitate the will of the people.. and likely facilitate government that follows the will of the people.


The main thing governments do with their money, is increasing the supply (newspeak regulating, keep prices stable). If he thinks that government needs to have this power, bitcoin is at odds.



Personally, I believe that it is pie in the sky, if we were to believe that bitcoin were going to take over any large percentage of fiat currencies in the near future.  However, a few years from now this may become more possible.   I suppose that any government (such as the US govt) needs to calculate the extent to which bitcoin may be considered to be at odds with it.  

I agree that there has been a lot of conniving with the US Govt printing of money and a lot of the secrecy that has gone along with the distribution of that newly printed money.  Certainly, bitcoin should be able to contribute towards competing with that aspect of what really appears to be irresponsible government.




I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people.

So do the libertarians.

I may have overstated this point to some extent - b/c I recognize that there may exist several flavors of libertarianism...

My main point is that i do NOT view govt as the problem.  However, I do believe that too much money influence in buying politicians is more frequently the problem that makes our government go awry.... ... ultimately, money should NOT be used to purchase politicians or to divert them from representing the will of the people.










30315  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 08:36:07 PM
Are you telling me that one of the biggest exchanges losing their customers money didn't cause a reversal from a downtrend that was caused by the loss of demand in China? How can this be? :O This is impossible!

Smiley

Sounds like you missed the rally and hope to get another crack. GTFO. The correction to $530 was because of China. Gox took us down to $400. These things can overlap.

Yes, you are absolutely right. I'm angry because there won't be any volatility any longer in the crypto scene to make money at the expense of fools. So I just invented this so called "demand in China" and how it's loss caused a boring 2 month long dead cat bounce.
But I'll try to correct my ways and listen to the TA wizards here who have skillz of drawing linez.

Smiley
China didn't have anything to do with the downtrend in February, and there is no reason to suppose demand in China is decreasing. The biggest issue with China recently was the uncertainty of what would happen on January 31st (which amounted to nothing); and all we did in January was fluctuate around $800 while worrying about the possibility of something on the 31st. February's downtrend was caused by uncertainty in mtgox and other exchanges, lies about the extent of transaction malleability, some finally mtgox's insolvency. Those issues have mostly been resolved at this point. I wouldn't wait for cheap (sub 600) coins anymore at this point. I think the downtrend is over, unless we get more seriously bad news, which is never unlikely in the bitcoin world.

It was game over for bitcoin in China when it was announced that there is no future for legal business supported by bitcoin. It ment that no serious investors who want to keep solid relations with the government won't touch bitcoin. The market that is left is basically walking on a thin line, only waiting for getting shut down and possibly prosecuted. Only thing that created the long dead cat bounce was denial, desperation and stupidity. If you have been looking at the charts then you know that overall demand has constantly been dropping, with only thing holding the price up is that there aren't many people who are willing to sell cheap. But this in turn is causing a decrease in volume and only way to stimulate the market is lowering the price little by litle...this will reach a critical point when the "will of the hodlers" will break and there will be a nice fall.
Anyway, I'm not arguing about this anymore, I have found that sarcasm is more suitable for this place. I'm tired of the "line drawers" calling for new and new bottoms for these past 2 months. You do whatever you wish and believe whatever you believe.

If you have such beliefs, then why are you hanging around here?  Why dont you just sell your bitcoins and leave?  Are you here to save the rest of us from ourselves from bitcoin from what?    Or are you still investing in the meantime?


Because it's profitable to earn money at the expense of people who don't know any better.

OK>>>>> that is fair..      I agree that you do NOT have to believe in the long term success of bitcoin in order to profit from its volatility and even from its trend... that is if you can predict correctly in order to turn a profit.



The killer app for Bitcoin in China is that it is a loophole to evade capital controls. This hasn't changed.

With the current restrictions, it does not seem to be very useful at that.

If a Chinese citizen buys bitcoin at Huobi with Yuan, sends the bitcoins over to Bitstamp, and exchanges then for dollars there, the end result (from PBoC's  point of view) seems to be very different from him exchanging the Yuan for dollars at some international bank, or taking the Yuan to the US and changing them there.

In the first case, his yuan stay in China, and the dollars he gets come from the pockets of non-Chinese speculators. In the second case, the Yuan end up in non-Chinese hands, and can be exploited to manipulate Chinese inflation etc..  That, in my uderstanding, is why the PBoC does not seem to care anymore about bitcoin trading in the Chinese exchanges.

Also, I thought that the Chinese did NOT care so much about bitcoin is b/c in essence they are trying to find investment vehicles outside of the dollar... and in that sense, the chinese have an interest in the success and stability of bitcoin as a storage of value, outside of the dollar.


30316  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 08:28:50 PM
This guy showed his hand weeks ago.

I have stated my position several times, but for those who did not see it:

* Cryptocoins are a great invention, and I wish that they succeed in their original goal -- a method of payment through the internet, especially across national borders, that is safe, cheap, convenient, fast, etc.  I wish that, and I would love to use them if and when I think that they are better for me than credit cards or other existing means.  I wish that, but I do not think that the chances are good. (One shoudl never confuse "desire" with "expectation".)

* I am not a libertarian. I believe that governments are useful and necessary, and we should fight to democratize and improve them rather than abolish them. I see the libertarians' idea of getting rid of governments as sheer lunacy. (For one thing, if you don't have your own strong democratic government, other people will gladly and forcibly lend you theirs.)  And I see their hope that bitcoin will let them build their utopia outside the reach of governments as lunacy squared.

* Adults have the right to do whatever they want with their money (within limits of law and ethics, of course), including investing it in whatever they like, gambling it, or even throwing it away. 

* In particular, I do not care care if someone buys a lottery ticket when he is fully aware of the odds, or trades it with some fellow gambler who is equally aware of them. 

* However, if I see someone buying a lottery ticket because he thinks it is a good investment, I feel this Darwinian duty (magnified by professional habit) to inform that fellow primate about the odds, expected value, and all that.  If the guy does not believe me, then, shrug,  that is his problem.  And, of course, I consider myself excused of that duty if  I think that the guy may steal my bananas, or if he snarled some unfriendly noises at me.

* Finally, when someone tries to convince others to buy lottery tickets, by telling them that it is a good investment, when his motive is actually to make a profit out of their "investment" -- then that guy is a scammer, and should go to jail.



I agree with a large number of your points and subpoints however, I do NOT understand why  bitcoin and/or some other crypto-currencies cannot fit within your world view.  In other words, neither bitcoin nor other crypto-currencies need to be incompatible with your world view.  We can still have government and crypto-currencies.  I recognize that there are a lot of libertarians in the crypto-currency space; however, I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people... I also believe that crypto currencies can facilitate the will of the people.. and likely facilitate government that follows the will of the people.


30317  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 08:17:52 PM
Are you telling me that one of the biggest exchanges losing their customers money didn't cause a reversal from a downtrend that was caused by the loss of demand in China? How can this be? :O This is impossible!

Smiley

Sounds like you missed the rally and hope to get another crack. GTFO. The correction to $530 was because of China. Gox took us down to $400. These things can overlap.

Yes, you are absolutely right. I'm angry because there won't be any volatility any longer in the crypto scene to make money at the expense of fools. So I just invented this so called "demand in China" and how it's loss caused a boring 2 month long dead cat bounce.
But I'll try to correct my ways and listen to the TA wizards here who have skillz of drawing linez.

Smiley
China didn't have anything to do with the downtrend in February, and there is no reason to suppose demand in China is decreasing. The biggest issue with China recently was the uncertainty of what would happen on January 31st (which amounted to nothing); and all we did in January was fluctuate around $800 while worrying about the possibility of something on the 31st. February's downtrend was caused by uncertainty in mtgox and other exchanges, lies about the extent of transaction malleability, some finally mtgox's insolvency. Those issues have mostly been resolved at this point. I wouldn't wait for cheap (sub 600) coins anymore at this point. I think the downtrend is over, unless we get more seriously bad news, which is never unlikely in the bitcoin world.

It was game over for bitcoin in China when it was announced that there is no future for legal business supported by bitcoin. It ment that no serious investors who want to keep solid relations with the government won't touch bitcoin. The market that is left is basically walking on a thin line, only waiting for getting shut down and possibly prosecuted. Only thing that created the long dead cat bounce was denial, desperation and stupidity. If you have been looking at the charts then you know that overall demand has constantly been dropping, with only thing holding the price up is that there aren't many people who are willing to sell cheap. But this in turn is causing a decrease in volume and only way to stimulate the market is lowering the price little by litle...this will reach a critical point when the "will of the hodlers" will break and there will be a nice fall.
Anyway, I'm not arguing about this anymore, I have found that sarcasm is more suitable for this place. I'm tired of the "line drawers" calling for new and new bottoms for these past 2 months. You do whatever you wish and believe whatever you believe.

If you have such beliefs, then why are you hanging around here?  Why dont you just sell your bitcoins and leave?  Are you here to save the rest of us from ourselves from bitcoin from what?    Or are you still investing in the meantime?







30318  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 07:04:49 PM
There is resistance at $700 and support at $662 and $642 in this range.
Substantial resistance it seems.  Back to range-trading mode.  Might do better long in LTC.


Do you still believe that litecoin is good at $17 or $18 - b/c there was a sudden upward adjustment from $14 to $22 and then back down to the $17 area.... ... maybe we will get $25 out of Litecoin in the coming weeks - due to some increased litecoin adoption?    Thereafter, it may go parity (i mean parallel) with BTC, again?
30319  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 06:55:06 PM
What just happened on Bitstamp? 64 btc order down to 633, doesn't make sense. Anyone can confirm it's just a btcwisdom glitch, or did the trade actually hit 630 for real?

WTF?! Just checked on tradingview, they show it as well. Bitstamp trading enging fucked up?!

Like MoreFun said. The Api shows, that there were 2 trades went through. Check a few trades earlier or https://www.bitstamp.net/api/transactions/ (633.64)

So let me get this straight... if this were NOT a bitstamp trading error fuck up, then every single order down to $633.64 should have been filled, and that would have taken about 3,000 bitcoins to fill all of those orders from $680 to $633.64 (unless some big fish pulled their order(s))..   

Thereafter, if some such big fish had put in a 3k sell, it would have taken several minutes for traders to recreate new orders... therefore, a glitch in the system.
30320  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 04:00:43 PM
Rpietila, I am keen to hear what your predictions are for the next week or so ?

I cannot predict such short timespans.

The biggest market mover is the people who thought they had bitcoins in Mt.Gox. When they replace (which I believe is going on), the price can rise a lot. We are talking about 100,000s of coins of extra demand.

That seems to be a pretty wimpy explanation... NO HATING... but it remains fairly unclear the extent that Mt. Gox coinholders are going to replace their coins, though possibly, they may replace a fraction of their coins - if they have fiat to accomplish such replacement.  

There seems to be a lot more going on in the bitcoin sphere that will be driving up demand for bitcoin, besides the potential replacement of GOX coins.  First is that we have a greater clarification of the GOX situation and Second, there has been a lot of BTC network building over the last several months - creating a sort of pent up demand...  - fiat waiting on the sidelines b/c of China in December and January and then GOX in February.  

In other words, we are likely bound for choo choo territory... first to the 800 to 1000 arena within the next week or two, and then maybe after lingering in the 800-1000 arena for a few months later, with  the next 3 months or so the $1500 plus arena....
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