Let's agree on a 0.1 donation for min 5TH and 0.4w/gh at chip level and you judge the outcome of the one who will make the donation.
Along with shipping on time and you have a deal. Ok deal. |
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i can call you a troll whenever i wish You're free to do so now. But I don't think it would be accurate in this thread at least. I am a fan of spondoolies just not preorders. And it would be trolling to suggest preorders are entirely a good idea given the history of bitcoin asics so far. Spondoolies may be the first company to reliably hit shipping dates on preorders but the only thing I fear is that this would then be seen as acceptable allowing the scummy companies to thrive. Ok i understand your view. No name calling. Let's agree on a 0.1 donation for min 5TH and 0.4w/gh at chip level and you judge the outcome of the one who will make the donation. |
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what is the incentive for me to give somebody my money so they can research new chips to make my current technology obsolete? I am not crazy. I rather have Spoondolosis fail and prolong my current 28nm technology for another 5 months.
Think hard before you give your money to some company to make your miners obsolete.
The research of the chip is done. You are giving money so that SP-Tech can arrange their supply chain to build the units in August. They will have chips in July. The assembly of couple hundred units takes some time, money and preparation. I don't have 0.5 btc to give to charity and im not entirely confident I will win. I just know that historically shipping dates/estimated specs are missed. And I was talking about 0.4w/gh at chip level not system but either works.
0.1btc is all I have to donate. Maybe someone else can add to the charity bet if you insist on 0.5.
Ok. Agree on 0.1 to Sean's Outpost+i can call you a troll whenever i wish. I agree on 0.4w/gh at chip level, but that's a bit hard to measure. I will let you decide the outcome of this bet since i have no problem donating 0.1. |
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Are you talking with chances?? Aren't we all? Unless you have a magic crystal ball then you don't know what the future will hold. Since you won't take the bet let's revert to name calling. If SP-Tech delivers on time and on spec i will call you as i wish(maybe troll). If SP-Tech won't deliver on time and spec feel free to call me as you wish. Deal? Sorry I didn't know the bet was directed towards me. I'd be happy to take the bet but not for 1btc. That is too much for me to gamble especially because I think that out of all the asic manufacturers, SP has the best chance of delivering on time and on spec. But I still find it unlikely. So if you want to bet here would be my terms: - 0.1btc donated to seansoutpost (loser pays) - SP must deliver their entire August batch no later than 1 week after August. - SP30 specs must reach a minimum of 5th/machine and 0.4w/gh (efficiency must be reached above 5th) Deal? LOL? So wait. First you claim that they won't deliver in time and in spec and now you chicken out? Let's make it 0.5 BTC+free name calling. 0.4w/gh? How did you came up with that? It's not what they announced and it's not in their specs. If you agree on 0.5w/GH then we can do it, but you are requesting a better efficiency than advertised. Minimum 5TH and 0.5w/gh and we have a deal. |
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If you don't like my numbers, propose some. Some that I can remind you of at Xmas.
Some how people have a hard time understanding that if a customer doesn't have a reasonable expectation of recovering the cost of a SP30 and making a profit commensurate with the risk taken, then the SP30 is not a viable product at the price it is offered.
FWIW, solarian is the guy with S1 machines, not me.
I can't predict the difficulty and the exchange rate. I told you my numbers. I expect the SP30 to ROI in 2-3 months. Somehow people just don't get that. We have 60k TH/s hashing at more than 1W/GH right now. When the whole 60k TH/s will go on red we are still making a profit. Small(depending on your farm), but it will be a profit.
The major flaw in your logic is the fact that you think you will be making a "profit" just because the SP30 is earning more than it costs to operate. In my view, the SP30 won't make a "profit" until it earns back the 10+ BTC it costs to purchase plus all expenses required to run it. Only then will you make a "profit". Go buy BTC then. End of story. Certainly hope it works out better for you than when I "knew" I'd have my 1.2th/s sierra last November.
The company that you hoped to deliver you the 1.2TH/s Sierra last November was run by a guy that had no idea how to run a business, let alone a bitcoin mining company. What did you know about Eduardo and his smug face? You knew nothing about him or his skills to deliver you the miners. On the other hand SP-Tech has a great Team behind them which you can see it on their website. Also i still don't get it how come it doesn't matter that they are backed by 2 very good VC companies with lots of other projects? Why are you so blind? Also looks like knc will be upgrading their neptune orders to 6th. So that's already one company SP will need to compete with. Although I'm still not convinced 20nm will prove viable.
They will ship the free stuff at the end of the queue. Good luck with that  Let's hope they don't end up shipped as the FrankenJups or as early S2 batches. |
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Wow so we will receive 2 Neptunes for the price of one... That's over 6 TH!!
I think I will have to upgrade the main fuses but it's a great gesture from KnC.
Let's see when you get your free stuff. HashFail hasn't shipped the promised MPP until now I don't assume that KnC won't ship their free stuff, but they will do it at the end of the line after they ship everything else and after they replace the Jupiters from their DC with Neptunes. Good luck. |
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Are you talking with chances?? Aren't we all? Unless you have a magic crystal ball then you don't know what the future will hold. Since you won't take the bet let's revert to name calling. If SP-Tech delivers on time and on spec i will call you as i wish(maybe troll). If SP-Tech won't deliver on time and spec feel free to call me as you wish. Deal? |
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Lets inject some reality into this discussion. When I plug the following numbers into the bitcoinwisdom mining profitability calculator, I recover my initial investment after 200 days. In another month, I've made 50 bucks ...
SP30: 6THs, $4500 cost, 0% pool fee, 0 maintenance cost, 15% difficulty increase, $0.1 USD kWh. 2500W, start in 90 days
This has been so much discussed i'm getting tired of it. Look at this graph: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png Assuming that you will have 15% increase in difficulty until the end of the year is simply nonsense. How much money are you making now with your S1s and how much money will you make in 90 days with your S1s and how much will you make in 200 days? If SP30 is not viable, then NOTHING will.
Somehow people just don't get that. We have 60k TH/s hashing at more than 1W/GH right now. When the whole 60k TH/s will go on red we are still making a profit. Small(depending on your farm), but it will be a profit. |
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KNC PLEASE SEND ME MY REFUND!!! YOU HAVE BEEN DRAGGING FOR 3 AND HALF WEEKS FOR MY ENTITLED REFUND!
Now that's a lousy announcement. It looks like it's an article from a news magazine with all those Sam quotes. Since we still have no timelines let's assume first batch will ship at the end of June, second batch will ship at end of July and third batch will ship end of August. You will get your free Neptune mid September. Ok! Also second announcement today. This was a very busy day for Sam. KNC PLEASE REFUND ME! |
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If they do deliver you will have the best miner on the market. Same thing has been said for just about every asic preorder in history. It will be the best until random chinese company ______ begins shipping their equivalent hardware for less and a month earlier. And how would you look if the SP30 delivers in time and on specs? The chinese only stole one chip design. Do you think they will be able to steal them all? If Bitmine.ch did a poor contract with Innosilicon doesn't mean that this will happen with all companies. Looks like you cracked 300 mate, well done! Not yet. There are only 298 units sold. I need to refund 0.2. (mistakes) I highly doubt they deliver both on time and on spec.
And the chinese didn't steal the a1 not that it matters considering there are many chips available that match it. (Avalon,bitfury,AM,hashlast)
I have no idea what the chinese will get their hands on by time the sp30 is finally shipping but there is a chance a competing chip pops up out of nowhere and floods the market.
Put your money down on it? If SP-Tech delivers SP30 units on spec in August do you agree to pay 1 BTC to Sean's Outpost? If they fail to deliver i will pay 1 BTC to Sean's Outpost. |
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So, would you mind publishing some common-sense numbers we can all plug into the bitcoinwisdom mining profitability calculator that show a reasonable return on your SP30 group buy ? Has a profitability calculator ever been right? I think the most important thing is to have the cheapest $/gh and most efficient miner w/gh and you should profit. But nobody knows how the sp30 will actually perform and what it will be up against when it finally ships. That's what my group buy offers Thank you for your common sense. You have astronomical power costs imo. 30 S1 need how much power? 12kW? 10kW? And you get how much hashrate? 5400GH/s? A single SP30 will do more than your setup with only 2700W required. Not to mention all the PSUs, cables and stuff and more parts that could break than in the SP30. You made your choice. Good luck with that, but let other people make their own choice. I do hope you're kidding, you seem like an intelligent poster. Power consumption is largely irrelevant at this point, unless your power rates are enormous, in which case you'll be pushed out of btc mining anyway. By the time power consumption is relevant the difference between 1.7j/gh and 1.2j/gh won't mean much. Gold rated psus or server psus can be had dirt cheap and cables are made for fractions of a penny/yard. I fail to see how conversing limits anyone's choice. I thought we are comparing 1.7j/gh to 0.5j/gh (not sure how joules are related to watts but i'm assuming they are close). The 1.2j/gh are the Jupiters which i plan to sell How many PSUs are you using for 30 S1 miners? Those must have a big cost comparing to the miner. Like it or not, the future is to have less electric consumption
Go buy 1000 S1s, and come back in two months from now.
They will become like the usb miners. Useless.
My view exactly. Also considering that i plan to host them in the WA DC makes my life much easier. I still have burnin's boards in my living room and i got used with the sound, but the future is without headache in a DC, not at home. |
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I have...
i'm sorry but; why is this relevant to Spondoolies-Tech, announcement thread? I think you have found the wrong forum. I asked him Bingo. People with astronomical power costs will be forced out of btc mining first anyway. Tiny efficiency differences won't matter on the final tally.
You have astronomical power costs imo. 30 S1 need how much power? 12kW? 10kW? And you get how much hashrate? 5400GH/s? A single SP30 will do more than your setup with only 2700W required. Not to mention all the PSUs, cables and stuff and more parts that could break than in the SP30. You made your choice. Good luck with that, but let other people make their own choice. |
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If they do deliver you will have the best miner on the market. Same thing has been said for just about every asic preorder in history. It will be the best until random chinese company ______ begins shipping their equivalent hardware for less and a month earlier. And how would you look if the SP30 delivers in time and on specs? The chinese only stole one chip design. Do you think they will be able to steal them all? If Bitmine.ch did a poor contract with Innosilicon doesn't mean that this will happen with all companies. |
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@kendog77 let's talk in September. You tell me your hashrate and power consumption and i will tell you my hashrate and my power consumption. Secondly, its 3+ months till August. I hope it works out for everyone, but I also reckon that you would have to be a bit naive to think that the SP30 will be out there on its own with no competition at the price point or even efficiency level. You think the Chinese are going to stop? You think that Innosilicon, the Avalon people, AM etc are just going to give up? I think theres even a reasonable probablility that KnC will have Neptune out there before then even though some may scoff. I predict the next round of miners coming out of China will be significantly cheaper than the last round. I know that already the 820GH Avalon machine is down to 1900$ delivered, so am expecting the A1 boxes to drop accordingly and for newer 1.2/1.6/2 TH machines to be out sooner rather than later. SP-Tech will have chips in hand early July, i hope that we will get some kind of demo or some performance numbers long before they start shipping units. I don't think SP30 will have no competition, but i do think that the SP30 will be among the first ones (if not the first one) with that efficiency. AM is still struggling with their gen3 chip and it seems to be on pair with SP10 chips, KnC's 20nm chip will be around SP10 efficiency level too so it will take some time to catch up for the rest of the companies. As for China clones and such they may sell 1TH for 500$, but if they suck at power efficiency it's no good. By the time the competition will catch up with SP30 i'm sure that SP-Tech will be one step ahead. All educated guesswork I am sure, and I hope for your group buy's sake that it works out that way, but remember, no-ones predicted efficiency has so far been on the money. SP10 is still only 1W/GH or maybe just under at its rated 1.4TH which is the same as A1 in the shipping Dragonminers from China. Even BITMAIN have shown they can adapt their design to get down to very close to those numbers with the S2. KnC's old tech isn't far off 1W/GH either. Now the SP30 being a die shrink should hopefully pay off, but they are bumping up the output big time which may affect things, who knows, I hope your thoughts and guesses pay off, I'd be hedging and planning for it to be slightly off target just in case. SP10 is 0.82W/GH if you measure it by 1400GH (1150W for this speed) Why do you say it's 1W/GH? What is the power draw for Dragonminers? S2 does 1W/GH and comes in pieces. KnC Jupiters are 1.1-1.2W/GH. Only Bitfury can achieve 0.8 or maybe 0.7W/GH. As said before I invite you and everyone to just buy one single unit so that they can compare themselves the quality of the products. Can't afford or don't want to buy a pre-order unit? Just buy one SP10 and you will see the difference. How do you compare to something that's not available for 4 months?
Hashfast sierra looked like a bargain for 50Btc in sept of 2013 for delivery in November of 2013. Didn't turn out so well.
HashFail is run by Eduardo who is reminding me of Josh Zerlan. Check Eduardo's background and you will see and understand why they failed so much. SP-Tech have 2 VCs companies that overlook every move they make. It's not the same thing. Stop comparing apples with oranges! This whole issue of power efficiency is a red herring, it is an end-of-life issue which is significant to profitability only when the cost of operating a piece of equipment approaches the value of the bitcoin it mines.
When difficulty is very high and bitcoin is cheap, miners have bigger problems than sucking the last 2 dollars a day profit from a large capital investment. Why don't you publish some numbers that will give your customers a reasonable expectation that they can recover the capital cost of an SP30 before you try selling this equipment on power efficiency ?
@raskul: don't bother trooper, you are on ignore till you start behaving L)L
If you think power consumption matters as much as 2 dollars per day then what can i say to you? Imagine having 2 farms both hashing at 5TH. One farm needs 5kW and one farm needs 2.5kW. Which one do you think it will last longer? Also take into consideration that besides small miners there are some big miners too. Big miners will need to pay an extra ~30% more on their power bill for keeping their units cool enough. Paying 30% more out of 5kW is something and paying 30% more out of 2.5kW is another thing. If your power bill is 10k$ you need to pay additional 3k$. That matters! My estimates of getting a fiat ROI on the SP30 units is around 2-3 months. Of course it's very exchange rate dependent (meaning that if btc goes to 100$ then you won't get a fiat roi in 3 months) and also difficulty dependent, but that comes into second place since i don't think it will rise with 20% all the time like everyone is thinking. (last diff adjust was only 14% and the next one seems to be around 15%). Relaxed thanks. Think I'll take bitmain for 1310/Th shipped within 48hrs. Though if spondoolies could guarantee shipping within 48hrs I'd consider them even at a higher price.
Then why not buy a lot of them right now? It seems that you are only wishing for hashing machines, but you don't seem to either have the money or the guts to really act like you say. Post pics when you get them before you start assembling them. |
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Paying for August delivery in late April is NUTS. The number of variables to consider between then and now makes an informed decision impossible.
Where were you advising people to not buy pre-orders from other companies like BFL, HashFail etc? We had a full 12 months of pre-orders. Suddenly everyone jumps criticizing one more pre-order. I stated in the above replies you are comparing different companies with different background. Feel free to not order, but i got your message. No need to repeat it endlessly. |
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My Jupiters are fine. It's my Neptune pre-orders that tanked, but at least KNC refunded the purchase which is more than I can say about the Spondoolies-Tech pre-order terms. If Spondoolies-Tech is so confident in their ability to deliver the SP30 on spec and on time, they should put their money where their mouth is and allow for refunds.
Don't worry about me, I'll be OK. All of my hardware has already earned more BTC than I spent on it (8TH and climbing of Ants, Jupiters, and Dragons because I'm a hardware whore), and I also have a decent amount of BTC in the wallet. My farm will be much larger before a single SP30 ships.
Tech companies much larger than Spondoolies-Tech experience delays all the time (Intel, Apple, Nvidia, ...), so don't act like the SP30 is a risk free investment because it's not. For better or worse, it's obvious that you have hitched your wagon to Spondoolies-Tech so I hope that works out for you. Otherwise, you're going to be dealing with a lot of pissed off folks on this forum come August.
Also, acting like this is a once in a lifetime opportunity is absurd. If the SP30 is such a great product and is miles ahead of every other competitors product come August, which I think is very unlikely, it's not like Spondoolies-Tech will not offer more for sale. The real question is whether or not the potential return for the extra risk taken for a 3 month plus pre-order will be worthwhile. IMHO, with BTC at $440, the answer is an obvious no, but if others wish to take a 3 month plus risk with their BTC, go for it.
I'm having flashbacks to last year when BTC spiked from $100 to $1000 in a matter of weeks and people were complaining about their $50,000 plus BabyJets. If something similar happens again between now and August, a lot of folks are going to receive some very expensive SP30s.
Want to buy my 2 Nov Jupiters? What will you do with your farm after all SP30 units start hashing? Having a crystal ball which tells us the exchange rate in a few months would help us all make the better decision. If you are afraid that BTC will increase 10x times or more then don't spend BTC and just spend fiat. If you don't have any fiat then just hold BTC. When making a decision you HAVE to take into consideration all things which include the rising of the exchange rate or the non-rising of the exchange rate. Be ready for both scenarios and don't blame anyone for not making the right decision or for spending all your money on a thing that didn't got you the maximum return. But if BTC goes to 1000$ then a SP30 would be only 10k$ so i'm satisfied with that. I paid 10k$ (without VAT) for a 3TH Neptune, getting 6.5TH for the same 10k$ is just fine for me so i won't complain. Secondly, its 3+ months till August. I hope it works out for everyone, but I also reckon that you would have to be a bit naive to think that the SP30 will be out there on its own with no competition at the price point or even efficiency level. You think the Chinese are going to stop? You think that Innosilicon, the Avalon people, AM etc are just going to give up? I think theres even a reasonable probablility that KnC will have Neptune out there before then even though some may scoff. I predict the next round of miners coming out of China will be significantly cheaper than the last round. I know that already the 820GH Avalon machine is down to 1900$ delivered, so am expecting the A1 boxes to drop accordingly and for newer 1.2/1.6/2 TH machines to be out sooner rather than later. SP-Tech will have chips in hand early July, i hope that we will get some kind of demo or some performance numbers long before they start shipping units. I don't think SP30 will have no competition, but i do think that the SP30 will be among the first ones (if not the first one) with that efficiency. AM is still struggling with their gen3 chip and it seems to be on pair with SP10 chips, KnC's 20nm chip will be around SP10 efficiency level too so it will take some time to catch up for the rest of the companies. As for China clones and such they may sell 1TH for 500$, but if they suck at power efficiency it's no good. By the time the competition will catch up with SP30 i'm sure that SP-Tech will be one step ahead. |
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There's absolutely no justification for pre-orders to exist at this stage in bitcoin mining's hardware evolution. Just say no. Force companies to build it before they sell it, the way it should be.
Will you fund the R&D and the chip mask of new companies? |
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Sent another e-mail today (and i will do it every day) asking about my refund. Not a single answer.
KNC PLEASE REFUND ME AND STOP HOLDING MY MONEY FOR YOUR USE!
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I had pre-orders with KNC, Terrahash, and BFL, and not one of them worked out the way I wanted. Ask folks who had pre-orders with Hashfast, Cointerra, Bitmine, or BlackArrow how well they did. The list of pre-order failures far outweighs the list of pre-order successes. At least I was lucky enough to get a refund, but others were not so lucky.
In fact, I think the only pre-order buyers that actually did OK were early Avalon and Knc customers.
But I'm sure it's different this time.
Also, all the RoadStress cheerleading for Spoondoolies reminds me a lot of what Bitcoinorama did for KNC last year.
Bitcoinorama was right when he was cheerleading for Knc. He was only cheerleading for Jupiters and i tipped him 2 BTCs for his effort. I don't know what went wrong with your Jupiters, but for me the Jupiters were a fine product (the best at that time) even if i had a small problem with a blown up capacitor (was replaced in 3 working days by KnC). Since December/January KnC shifted from their customers to their own greed by building the massive DC even if they promised that they WON'T mine with more than 5% of what they sold. I don't think we saw Bitcoinorama support KnC since Nov/December last year. As for being sure this time I shared my view here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=575499.msg6278746#msg6278746 and you don't have to take my word. Feel free to judge by their launched product, by their team and lastly by their VCs who funded them. THEY won't allow SP-Tech to screw things over like every other company. I don't think it's how VCs firm work or not these one at least. Judge by the known facts and ignore what I think. For example do you really believe that Adam back would join a lying, shady company who wants to screw their customers? I don't. Don't compare the other companies who were run by either engineers(KnC) or by business-men scammers (BFL, HashFail, etc) and don't blame the fact that you always rushed to get miners with blind faith and without proper research on other companies. I am proud of my past choices until now regarding miners (burnin's Avalon boards, Jupiters and SP10) and i wasn't burned until now, except by Avalon delaying chips. It seems that I'm better than you at making choices regarding miners, but yet you are the one questioning me right now. In 2 and half months i will prove myself and to the rest of the forum that i was right one more time. Edit: Almost 2 days left for my GB. Last chance for this price! |
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The poisonous invective and schadenfreude towards KNC demonstrated by RoadStress, Raskul, Str8Guy, Edgar and others in this thread has been one of the primary reasons why I have no interest in participating in the Spoondoolies Tech group buy for the SP30.
Guy, it does your company a great dis-service to allow your thread to be dominated by the rancor and and ill will of these people towards your competitors and it does your company a great dis-service to associate with this sentiment.
Let your products succeed or fail on their merits, not the problems of others.
This thread isn't dominated at all by people who are angry at competitors. There are mentions from time to time, but calling it dominated is a bit too much don't you think? I was also praising KnC on other threads long before Spondoolies came to the market. As i said i was always warning people about shady and good companies. |
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