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he he
Now, that planB scheme is being widely criticized as unrealistic or even unscientific, the crowd will tend to become much less wild in anticipation...and then btc would outperform.
If everybody are sitting counting their imaginary funds at $100K or above by Dec 2021, it would NOT do it.
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https://twitter.com/stephendpalley/status/1311694266389929986BREAKING: CFTC sues Bitmex, Arthur Hayes "to enjoin their ongoing illegal offering of commodity derivatives to U.S. persons, their acceptance of funds to margin derivatives transactions from individuals and entities in the U.S., & their operation of a derivatives trading platform yay the drama we need Who is this Hayes character?? you are kidding, right....he is one 'smart-ass' guy wearing jobs-style turtleneck (has kind of super huge mouth/smile). look for pics with sunglasses (Alps?) The joke was real indeed  could care less about that guy |
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https://twitter.com/stephendpalley/status/1311694266389929986BREAKING: CFTC sues Bitmex, Arthur Hayes "to enjoin their ongoing illegal offering of commodity derivatives to U.S. persons, their acceptance of funds to margin derivatives transactions from individuals and entities in the U.S., & their operation of a derivatives trading platform yay the drama we need Who is this Hayes character?? you are kidding, right....he is one 'smart-ass' guy wearing jobs-style turtleneck (has kind of super huge mouth/smile). look for pics with sunglasses (Alps?) |
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BitMEX CTO got arrested.
Mex users on the brink of panic (i am) - if they arrest one more mex gonna likely lose access to their multisig wallet lol...
Traders unwinding their position to leave bitmex could make crazy swings in the spot market.
well, then i will send more $$ to purchase a bit. ...pinky swear. |
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Re bitmex.
It's like 2013 and the Silk road bust, which made btc acceptable for hedge funds to invest.
Now, to make it 'investable' for 'serious' institutions (or MAYBE even countries) bucket shops like bitmex with 100X leverage had to be at least slowed down if not impaired.
I know that people love to play with margin, but there is ledgerX in US (should get more business as a result).
Not sure if Deribit will also be 'punished' at some point.
Whether or not this is 'good' or 'bad'-time will tell.
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No wonder the exchanges' reserves have come down so much this year. Just a couple of million more and we get our supply shortage event.
You said in one sentence what it took me a JJG sort of novella to try to say above.  Not looking forward to that. IMHO, what is happening (my hypothesis): faced with constant withdrawals, exchanges instituted a scheme where they are getting re-hypothecated bitcoin from the likes of blockfi, celsius, nexo and crypto.com That's why price does not react to bullish events, as long as their "supply" is virtually unlimited. The question is: do you trust that each btc on exchange 'actually' represents a "real" bitcoin or a bitcoin genuinely "borrowed" from the companies mentioned above? I strongly suspect that it is not the case. It is probably much, much worse. There is not going to be any supply shortage as long as the 'scheme' continues unabated. |
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tbh it feels like 2011 to 2014 to me. lots of bleh with random noise tossed in. then the terror. then the disbelief. then the joy.. well still waiting on joy kinda in this cycle although im happy enough where we are.
Your comparison is off the 4-year fractal pattern... Because 2011 to 2012 (from my looking at the charts - not personal experience) were largely flat and bleh... But 2013 was filled with the adventures of two blow off tops in one year, that largely made a pretty BIG ASS blow off top - so even though I did not get into bitcoin until at the end of the second blow off top, I could hardly imagine that any HODLers or otherwise active BTC participants would be feeling anything that resembles the level of bleh that currently seems to be in the air. Another thing is that with the passage of time, holy fucking shit vapourminer, all of bitcoin's metrics continue to grow, in terms of looking at the various network effects that were not even close to current levels of maturity in 2011 to 2014 - slapped you hard enough in recent times... #nohomo
but of course now most of us have a lot more riding on bitcoins price than back then.right, about 30-40X per unit if you compare to 2014-2015 average, not even talking about 2012-2013 average. ...and, @JJG, sorry if I never mentioned it before, but buying when price is decreasing and selling when price is increasing is pretty much disaster in the making for anything else, apart from bitcoin, maybe, and even then, I doubt that it is optimal for bitcoin, spreadsheets non-withstanding. Maybe, if you are not selling UNTIL it reaches the prior high, but even then... ALL markets consensus is you buy when stuff goes up in price (not at once, of course) and you sell when price starts going down (not the bottom, of course). This way you get more winners and dispose of losers. |
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blockstream's new "Liquid" wallet...only for iOS yet, android upcoming. https://blockstream.com/2020/09/26/en-introducing-aqua-wallet/In the news: PlanB is "not uncertain" ("Billions" aficionados would know) I have to give it to him: to put his reputation on the line like this takes guts/ballz. BTC at <=20K by Dec 2021-and nobody will ever listen to him again. BTC at >=55K by Dec 2021 and bitcoiners will make "statues" of him PLUS, he would be able to demand >$20K every time he speaks (at the conf, etc). It cannot be more binary then this. |
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If you want to see data behind the upcoming decoupling of BTC from the stock markets powered by BTC's internal adoption, here's some @glassnode data. This is the active users of BTC after filtering for unique players (ignores multi wallet addresses belong to one entity). https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1309837877363257344?s=21I wish woonomic was right, but it might all be in the price already (Efficient price theory). In addition, this certainly does not work for a competitor with all-time high activity and low price. However, I grant you that if usage would go up as a hockey stick, price would follow, but the yellow graph does not resemble such "stick" yet. btc is still asleep. |
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My 2c about Saylor's buy of $425 mil in btc.
Contrary to everybody's enthusiasm, I found it troublesome.
1. The smart way of buying would be buying calls, then be aggressive, not making 20K tiny tx. If you have calls, then you don't care much if market moves or not as a result of your buying.
2. How he was able to find $425mil sellers without moving a market? It's not like all other buyers and sellers disappear.
Something does not compute.
To me this is an indication that market has some re-hypothecated btc and large portion of the volume is such "imaginary" btc.
It does not matter that he was able to withdraw. It simply means that they re-hypothecated even more and injected those back to exchanges.
I suspect the exchanges of the world have 10 to 20% of the coins they claim to have. I imagine most volume is based on reserves they dont actually have. My sentiment: exactly. |
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My 2c about Saylor's buy of $425 mil in btc.
Contrary to everybody's enthusiasm, I found it troublesome.
1. The smart way of buying would be buying calls, then be aggressive, not making 20K tiny tx. If you have calls, then you don't care much if market moves or not as a result of your buying.
2. How he was able to find $425mil sellers without moving a market? It's not like all other buyers and sellers disappear.
Something does not compute.
To me this is an indication that market has some re-hypothecated btc and large portion of the volume is such "imaginary" btc.
It does not matter that he was able to withdraw. It simply means that they re-hypothecated even more and injected those back to exchanges.
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Am I the only asshole buying Eth until 32 then more Bitcoin right now? Fucking laugh at me the fool right?
Yes... Ethereum is a shitcoin... Don't buy it.. Don't even take it for free. Sorry...that "meme magic" is 100% lost on me.
1. not even into memes...took me months/years to finally ask "the hat-master" for a hat.
2. I did not get the meme...dog loves her already? duh! but then, why "she is asking me to go deeper"?
...confusing...does not compute...%#%#$%^*...primary CPU is out, secondary is overheating...
Have you ever heard of the expression: "a picture is worth a thousand words"? In essence, memes cause posts to be shorter, especially if they do not need to be explained.   it did not add anything just as well as a baby meme before...and many before those. overrrated. sowwy. |
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Sorry...that "meme magic" is 100% lost on me.
1. not even into memes...took me months/years to finally ask "the hat-master" for a hat.
2. I did not get the meme...dog loves her already? duh! but then, why "she is asking me to go deeper"?
...confusing...does not compute...%#%#$%^*...primary CPU is out, secondary is overheating...
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I am still buying, it's just I don't like the action since the summer of 2019.
Something changed and I can feel it, however it is difficult to convey intuition.
In 2017 everybody was very concerned about btc split,e tc, yet it went from 1K to 20K.
In 2019-2020 everybody (PlanB, PTJ, prominent bloggers, etc) keep saying how great btc is, invest half a bil $$ (the Saylor man), yet here we are, STUCK (and lower than in 2019, which is much earlier in the supposedly bullish cycle).
Nobody had rationalized these doldrums yet.
The fact that Pomp (with an unknown investment prowess) and Raoul Pal are now all in btc does not give me particularly good vibes.
They are good at blogging, NOT investment.
I look at Raoul Pal as a contrarian indicator...usually whatever he says moves 180 degrees (aka in the opposite direction).
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OK, @JJG, you have no counterpoint, basically.
Historical references are of limited value going forward.
I could give a rat's ass about the 20 year horizon, mostly interested in 3-7 years time frame.
In the time frame long enough, we are all dead and then ....the Universe is dead too.
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All of this verbiage is relevant only if you started LONG time ago. If you started 1 year ago and DCA ($100/wk), then $$ in btc are amazingly, 100% (or close to it) correlated with Gold and 90% correlated with stocks. Check for yourself at your fav link. https://dcabtc.com?sd=2019-09-25&sda=1_year&f=weekly&d=1_year&ac=10000&c=true Thereby, I pronounce btc "currently correlated"...until it is not. The fact that it was not correlated in 2012-2019 is great for those who invested back then, including many here, but does nothing for the newcomers. Maybe for newcomers it is just a better form of money, NOT a better investment vehicle. However, if btc appreciate just 7% yearly from now on going forward, I would be largely content as long as it is limited to a 50% yearly draw-down, like a stock market and NOT 50% daily decline. |
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today the dollar got stronger but bitcoin also was rising. usually, when the dollar is strong bitcoin is falling and when the dollar is weak, bitcoin price rises. check the charts and look what happened in 2017 and also in the first half of 2020.
decouple from eth
decouple from dollar
decouple from gold
decouple from stocks
this will be fun.
BTC already has decoupled from those above and a variety of other asset classes too, such as property, collectibles, etc. you keep saying this...let's see the data. In 2020 bitcoin has a pretty good correlation with the stock market. One can argue that non-correlation seen prior was a temporary phenomenon due to a small size and lack of the institutional investment. It is plausible to suggest that with the increase of institutional investment, bitcoin will start to correlate more, not less, but I am eager to be convinced otherwise. If bitcoin has 90-100% correlation to a stock market, it would be less attractive as a potential hedge. |
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i am taking a bet on CT. if price reaches $400k before next halving I lose 1 btc. if it doesn't, I win 1 btc.
already salivating...
Sorry, what's CT? |
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(10% of total stash)
Total stash as in the stash you started from? So you can only cash out 10 times?
or 10% of remaining stash, so you can cash out... well forever?
Sorry about the ambiguity of my earlier outline. I am meaning 10% of the stash at the time of the cashening out.... Of course, you can put the numbers into a spreadsheet projection and tweak your approach once you see it all laid out, to even make the percentage to be variable rather than set - while attempting to achieve your personal objectives (presumably financial and psychological) at various price points along the way. Let's say that this week (or today) while we are bouncing around in the $10,480 price arena, you project your strategy for BTC prices down to $4k and up to $1million, so of course, in that scenario, you have figured out the "how much" question based on right now circumstances, but since you are calculating this week (or today), you have not really figured out the time aspect, and as many of us likely realize quite a few things can change with the passage of time. So in some sense, our creation of our BTC plan today, has largely accounted for if the BTC prices were largely going to go shooting (in a short period of time) straight down to $4k (what we gonna do?) or shooting up to $1million (what we gonna do?) Of course, your whole personality and your whole way of interacting with the world is likely NOT going to all of a sudden change, yet your planning and your living through your plan may cause you some differing perspectives on life, time preferences and even changes in your life circumstances or health.. that may cause you to have to look back at your earlier BTC plan and to make some changes to it. Another thing that may cause you to make changes to your BTC plan along the way is that with the passage of time, some aspects of your plan end up getting executed upon rather than being hypothetical, so in that regard, you have executed various parts of the "what you gonna do" aspect of your plan... which would likely cause you to have to tweak your BTC plan to account for the having had carried out part(s) of the plan that had previously been hypothetical. Let's say you are largely following your BTC plan and your personal circumstances have not changed very much along the way, but as you keep executing aspects of your plan, you have to plug the execution portion into the plan because it is no longer hypothetical... and of course, if the BTC price moves really fast in one direction or another, then it seems more likely that your plan would largely get followed without hardly any tweaks to it because such plan is based on a kind of current assessment of "whatchagonnado" - but if aspects of your plan ends up remaining hypothetical for long periods of time, then along the way, you would attempt to account for any substantive, meaningful and material changes in your life along the way in order to ensure (from your own psychological and financial perspective) that you still are feeling comfortable with each and all of the particulars as they appear in your spreadsheet projection of "whatchagonnado". IMHO, the absolutely FIRST thing to do is to know (and increase) your personal limits for such cashing out. Of course, you can drizzle it out, but in situations like Dec 2017, you can "lose" 40% of the gains (or at least would not be able to re-deploy after withdrawal) if you cannot withdraw what you want to withdraw. High(er) limits are certainly very handy. |
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