Over the last decade, this market has become all too predictable.
The whales now are gunning for sub 50K, and they will eventually crash it down below that.
Why sub 50K?
Because if you look at the chart, that's where they started seriously pumping the market with heavy leverage on 2/25.
They always short it back down to where they started.
It's all an effort to get weak hands to shit their pants and sell, and to knock stupid guppy day tarders out of their long positions.
Easy problem to solve, just HODL.
within ~10%  ...so 46-47K should be "sufficient". could be just for a minute or a few seconds, though. |
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^ trying to pooh-pooh Mr. Market? We should admit that going down 8% after halving (and 19.5% since the ATH a month or so before) is not what most of us expected. Not a biggie, yet, of course, but it is enticing to think about why this is happening. I don't buy into P. Brandt 25% probability that bitcoin has already exhausted it's bull phase as it would be quite pathetic of a bull, but it seems that some macro factors are playing into this: maybe persistent inflation and hence no easing or maybe stagflation (albeit it is ridiculous to expect stagflation when we just started the AI era). I am reading that % of people not paying their bills is increasing in parallel with the credit card debt (1.2 tril in US). maybe the large %% of the population is simply broke (even with almost full employment)  Who knows, maybe we are on a verge of a recession and bitcoin is able to "sniff it out" earlier than other, often manipulated market indicators? |
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The government seems to be at war against crypto at the moment. With Roger being arrested I think that opens up the door for the arrest of individuals and the confiscation of their coins. I wonder how much longer this war will continue escalating. It may end up being a scary thing owning Bitcoin. I’m not even sure what CZ did to get 4 months. I guess he’s lucky to be able to get this behind him somewhat quickly. Don't be too dramatic, imho. He is an expat (renounced US citizenship). Being an expat means that you suppose to pay tax on exit (as if you sold ALL of your assets). They allege that he did not do that, that's all...for now. |
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current status of corn:
 Hong Kong ETF's were a total flop. Womp Womp. But that was obvious, since China won't buy. Now, if China decides to unban Bitcoin... That is a different story. ...it's no use crying for 'spilled' corn?  |
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Martyparty
&martypartymusic
Breaking: Chinese #Bitcoin and #Ethereum ETFs launch 9:30am tomorrow - press conference summary is out - here is the translation.👀☝️
Highlights:
- Expected larger first day than USA
- In kind redemptions and subscriptions
- Wallet to wallet transfers
- Mainland Chinese investors are not allowed to invest in Hong Kong’s cryptocurrency spot ETFs
- Hong Kong issuers DO NOT CARE if US Sec declares Ethereum a security.
In this press briefing, Zhu Haokang, head of digital asset management and family wealth of China Asset Management (Hong Kong), and Wayne Huang, head of OSL ETF and custody business, answered the following questions.
Q: What does China Asset Management (Hong Kong) think about the scale of capital inflows on the first day of listing of Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs tomorrow?
Zhu Haokang : I am very confident that the trading scale of the Hong Kong virtual asset spot ETF on the first day of listing can exceed the trading scale of the first day in the United States. The issuance scale of the 10 US Bitcoin spot ETF issuers on the first day of January 10 this year was 125 million. US dollar, Hong Kong will exceed US$125 million, and China is confident to become the ETF issuer with the largest trading volume on the first day among the three issuers. The details can be revealed to everyone at 9:30 tomorrow morning.
Wayne Huang : There will be an announcement from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at 9:30 tomorrow morning, but OSL has indeed completed its first day of raising funds on OSL today with two funds (including ChinaAMC and another fund that cooperates with us). Judging from the numbers, the transactions are indeed far greater than the capital inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF on its first day of trading.
Q: What is the difference between Spot China Bitcoin ETF and Spot China Ethereum ETF and other ETFs?
Zhu Haokang : The first difference is that compared with the US spot Bitcoin ETF, we have spot and physical subscriptions and redemptions, which the US spot Bitcoin ETF does not have.
In addition, there are two differences between ChinaAMC's products and the other two: ChinaAMC's Hong Kong spot ETF is the only ETF with Hong Kong dollar, US dollar and RMB counters. The second is that in addition to listed shares, we have unlisted shares. These two points are not available in the other two companies.
Q: In addition to Hong Kong, where else have investors participated in the Hong Kong virtual asset spot ETF?
Zhu Haokang : Thanks to the physical subscription method, first of all, investors include Bitcoin mines, etc. They can use their Bitcoin holdings to directly purchase virtual asset spot ETFs in Hong Kong. Secondly, in countries and regions that have not yet issued ETFs outside of Hong Kong, such as Singapore and the Middle East, we have also come into contact with a large number of investors who are extremely interested. In addition, although the current spot Bitcoin ETF market in the United States is very large, compared with the United States, Hong Kong uses cash and physical subscriptions and is open for trading during Asian trading hours, which will still attract many American investors. Finally, several family offices in Asia and overseas are also very interested in spot crypto ETFs.
Q: Is there currently only one securities firm, Victory Securities, qualified to conduct relevant transactions in physical subscriptions?
Wayne Huang : Not only Victory Securities can do physical subscription, but also Huaying Securities with the support of OSL. Currently, there are three securities firms that can do physical subscription, and there will be more follow-up later. Therefore, after the ETF is listed tomorrow, many brokers will follow up, and it is possible that more brokers will participate in the entire ecosystem of virtual asset ETFs in May.
Q: What are the specific operations for physical purchase?
Wayne Huang : Physical subscription is a pioneering initiative for Hong Kong ETFs that is different from US ETFs. First, the brokerage firm needs to upgrade its No. 1 license to be able to handle virtual asset transactions. Investors can transfer their coins to OSL through this brokerage firm, and then finally transfer their equity back to OSL. Transfer it to the fund's custody account and complete the entire process of physical subscription.
Q: What is OSL’s anti-money laundering process in physical subscription? Is it acceptable for the counterparty to be the wallet of the other exchange?
Wayne Huang : First, investors must connect to OSL through a brokerage firm to open an account. We will perform a whitelist verification on the wallet that is about to transfer money to prove that this wallet is held and controlled by the investor. Second, we will verify the investment. The user's private wallet must be screened to see if there are any suspicious transactions in the wallet's past dozens of transactions on the chain. Only wallets that have passed the whitelist verification can allow him to transfer money.
Can a wallet be the wallet of another exchange? In theory, this can be done. If the anti-money laundering rules of the other exchange are consistent with the OSL rules, we can accept the other party's transfer of coins, but we need the other exchange to provide certain customer information.
Brilliant...does it mean that using my btc I can "subscribe" to this ETF? It sounds that the answer is a cautious "yes". Why? Because it can facilitate borrowing against ETF value and reduces the need to sell anything. SEC with it's "cash only" creations will look inferior...maybe this explains the lack of further inflows into the Blackrock's fund. |
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It turned out (so far) that bitcoin did not care too much about "normies" thinking about it as a stock.
For normies, momentum is the only thesis to invest in btc ETF. I don't believe in the 'store of value' thesis for bitcoin for regular investors. Momentum...and that's it.
Maybe btc is losing an 'edge' because of all those ETF "instruments"?
I don't know and, imho, 2X-3X (from 73K) is still within a realm of possibilities (for the next 12-18 mo).
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Who are those 'gnomes' who always mess up trading on Sunday nights?
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Even though a lot of folks are seeming depressed, I think that we still have some more uppity.. 12-18 months.. but yeah, there can be some stifling effect when the actual value propositions of bitcoin (self-custody) are seemingly ongoingly under attack and maybe moreso in recent times.
Bravo! This is the crucial part of the matter, indeed. |
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Somehow, the situation feels similar to the spring-summer of 2017: the whole space undergoes growth while being at a tremendous assault of external factors.
Nobody knows what will transpire-it is really a "give" and "take". In 2017 the situation resolved bullishly, resulting in 10-15X in just a few months.
It is not clear to me that we have a similar situation here, but a bullish resolution is possible.
Sun Tzu said “If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.”
I guess, bitcoin just have to wait long enough...I just don't see how a geometrically increasing debt situation can be resolved in a positive fashion.
It might take a decade, though.
Unfortunately, I don't have an extra decade in which to contemplate this without taking action, so started my distribution out of the space to something both physical (renovations, RE projects) and spiritual (travel).
Did not start with bitcoin, of course, but I am no longer in the accumulation phase, generally speaking, after a decade or so.
Judging by 2017, I have a terrible timing for my sales...so whatever satoshis I will peel off this year-enjoy the discount when buying your stash!
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Epoch 1 was 50 BTC per block, epoch 2 was 25, epoch 3 was 12.5, etc.
How did epoch 4 skip down to 3.125? What happened to 6.25?
Silly humans Epoch 0 was 50BTC Nonsense. It's like centuries. Years 1 to 999 were the 1st century. Years 2000 to 2024 (so far) is the 21st century. There was no zeroth century. Apart from the obvious typo of 999 instead of 99, it is an inherently contradictory statement because you start current century with a "0" (aka 2000), but you started the first century with a "1". That said, there was no zeroth century (AD or any other count), indeed. |
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Why should it ever be about CZ going in jail.... nonsense
It shouldn't, but tard traders react-timewise, a perfect correlation. |
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It could be about the CZ news.... I don't know why the hell there are people who operate in the financial market based on news haha... the news comes out, instantly the trader presses SELL... how crazy lol It's the proposed sentence for CZ, I agree. However, the reaction to me seems to indicate that the bull is currently a bit weak/finiky. |
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he is into 200 week MA...js 200day is a classic, sure. |
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We are up about 7.30X since the last halving on may 11, 2020 or 730% in 1439 days or 0.1385%/day or 65.7% a year.
Not bad, lol
65.7% a year means 482469.65 on 2028 I will sign on for that. I would rather go by 200-WMA, and consider any additional BTC spot price performance as icing on the cake... and yeah, it seems that mostly BTC tends to be at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA - but not always... . Sorry to be a party poop.. but I put the 200-WMA to be slightly over $100k by mid 2028 - so 25% above that would be $125k... and surely we may well get some peaks and troughs along the way, but doesn't seem healthy to be overly getting our hopes up... while at the same time, I am not giving up on my probability assignment charts that show 0.5%-ish odds for BTC prices to get into the $2.5 million or higher range.... yet I doubt that those would be sustainable prices. It's OK to be conservative, but we are NOW at 65K or so. Slightly above 100K, say, 105K, is less than 14% a year for the next 4 years. Even Nasdaq beat this in the last decade or so. I would venture a guess that practically no one invests in btc for these kind of returns. If you have said: 30% a year (185K at the next halving), I might have agreed. If you want to counter that current 200wk average is much lower, I would say-would those investing today consider a 200wk average in their buying? Of course, not, they would only compare their level of success to the buy price, which is also the current spot price. 200wk average is there to show the history as it's trajectory is meaningless when projected forward since at any moment a curve bend might occur (adoption, etc). |
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Lol going from 1,5% fee to 0,15% on a mini and The filing also provides an illustrative example of the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) Grayscale will contribute to the mini fund: 63,204 bitcoin, or 10% of existing assets in GBTC, as per the filing. Also lol, GBTC currently holds about BTC304k so 63.204 would represent 20% of existing assets. So for GBTC holders 80% @ 1,5%fee, and 20% @ 0,15%fee would still put you at 1,23% overall Edit: Or to look at it from another angle, they would still have BTC241k ( BTC304k - BTC63k) waiting to be liquidated... Sorry, but it is irrelevant as you don't know the future trajectory of mini. Example: it could trade at a premium and since GBTC trades with no discount, you still come out ahead. For example, ibit trades between 0.84% discount and 0.98% premium. Same for FBTC. That's almost 2% range. I know...the snickering must continue regardless of facts, lol. However, ask yourself: how relevant is this when we go up/down 5% a day? Which part is irrelevant exactly? Fee is a fee. Not sure why you're picking extremes in volatility in other funds to further your point? In fact to flip this around, if you time it right you might add 2% profit on other funds by exploiting inefficiencies of their market makers (APs), come in when it trades at a discount and exit at a premium 1,3% savings on fees, is about 1,3% relevant regardless how much underlying is moving.
Lol going from 1,5% fee to 0,15% on a mini and The filing also provides an illustrative example of the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) Grayscale will contribute to the mini fund: 63,204 bitcoin, or 10% of existing assets in GBTC, as per the filing. Also lol, GBTC currently holds about BTC304k so 63.204 would represent 20% of existing assets. So for GBTC holders 80% @ 1,5%fee, and 20% @ 0,15%fee would still put you at 1,23% overall Edit: Or to look at it from another angle, they would still have BTC241k ( BTC304k - BTC63k) waiting to be liquidated... Sorry, but it is irrelevant as you don't know the future trajectory of mini. Example: it could trade at a premium and since GBTC trades with no discount, you still come out ahead. For example, ibit trades between 0.84% discount and 0.98% premium. Same for FBTC. That's almost 2% range. I know...the snickering must continue regardless of facts, lol. However, ask yourself: how relevant is this when we go up/down 5% a day? From what I understand from the link, it's mainly a way to keep customers happy, who are "stuck" in the Grayscale environment if they don't want to pay a lot of taxes. Hahaha ohh you got me there, yes i'm sure GBTC really cares about keeping their customers happy, you funny, i like you Edit: On the bright side we might see a stop on GBTC outflows until mini is listed, meaning price... Again, there is no discount in GBTC, so, with high volatility, 1.5% A YEAR fee is irrelevant unless you want to keep GBTC position for 5-10 years without trading in or out. GBTC is largely a nothingburger at this point. The question of high volatility is not, however. |
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