Linear was the easiest equation to find out. I don't expect it to be overly (or at all) accurate, it was only for the safe of the discussion.
My point was that you can easily find pretty good numbers for a bad scenario. Whether that would indeed get to happen... that's hard to say...


I expect both highs and lows stop following the old patterns (although there's too few data to actually correctly call that pattern). But I don't know what the future holds.

If OP is too busy, maybe you ask @Coin-1 do this, since he already has a pretty much up-to-date topic on merit sources: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4523027.0
All he has to do more is to also check the last login date of the (bolded) users (and subtract the dates).

Wonderful story, but I think that it's just a fantasy. Things don't go that easy.
I don't see any good reason why that prize was not sent to a bank account in the first place.
Then, in most cases, such big prizes are not given out as a whole and not so easy. It's usually like "you get this monthly amount for that number of months or you get 75% of the full prize if you want it all now".
Then nobody just sells you $1M worth of bitcoin for cash. Or well, maybe the Mafia does, but it's usually easier to lure you, then kill you and get that fiat.


So sorry, it sounds wonderful, but I don't think that's a real story.

I don't know that good the prices. I have some sort of feeling that new hardware is cheaper in US and SH is a little bit cheaper here.
With IBD already done I don't find SSD an useful expense, hence I tried to prefer bigger HDD.
I've seen here too i3 and i5 refurb or SH, but they are more expensive and I expect them also be more power hungry. The configuration I've put is almost 110$ and it already has 1 TB HDD on it.


Yes, and it's difficult and expensive to get hands on one nowadays. The only one official reseller in my country is out of stock for maybe a year.


While I expect everybody calculates only the power drew by the Pi, and indeed, there's more components to actually buy (plus if I get a Pi, I get 1TB SSD to keep the system fanless/noiseless).
And yes, I expect to have more to work at it. Still, since I already have a (much smaller) Pi, I started to really like those little buggers 
And over years the difference in power consumption may (wishful thinking) pay the difference in acquisition price.


I've been eyeing Fulcrum before Electrs. I've been thinking to run it under Windows. But I gave it up. I didn't find anybody really using it, and it also seems to be primarily developed for BCH not BTC. And since those guys tend to say "Bitcoin" when they actually refer to their altcoin, it can get confusing and problematic, so I decided not to risk even more headaches.


Nice find! Still, I don't think that I'll go back to that path. My Pi Zero W has became print server in my home and if I ever get to the point I no longer need that.. it may become the hardware for a SeedSigner.
It is too weak for what Bitcoin Core needs.

While Electrum is wonderful on the PC segment, afaik it's still missing HW support on smartphones. And if somebody wants hard to have pretty much the same application on PC and smartphone may avoid Electrum, no matter how good it is.


While I do like Electrum for PC, for now I am stuck on Android with Mycelium. And I would not mind some "fresh air". So I might give this green wallet a chance, especially since it does support HW and it's also open source.
I'm also eyeing Blue Wallet for its easy LN capability (although unfortunately custodian, I know), but I'm not convinced if it would work with my Ledger Nano S and I didn't have the time for proper tests.

I wasn't born in a democratic country, and I didn't care much of the history, so I don't know how the news really were in the democratic world.
In a communist country only the allowed news were published. Now, in a democracy, the money talks. The money of the owner, the money of those paying for the news (in different ways), the money for the ads.
Here the television was not so blatantly bad as start, after '89, but now the news are biased and unreliable and the movies are some sort of things/fillers between commercials.

I remember though the ads on all web pages and especially on search engines. That was in pre-Google era. Then, at some point, the pay per impressions was pretty much stopped and pay per clicks / leads was instated in most places. Maybe I was too young and stupid back then, but I have the feeling that the news "paid from banners" in the pre-Google years were more honest than those from now. Or at least not so blatantly biased.

Clearly now the world in more divided, especially since it's hard to find out which source is reliable and which is not, which creates only noise and which provides real information. And guerrilla marketing - whether for politicians or other agendas - is more and more common. Everybody tries to sell you something, everybody tries to manipulate for its own good.

You don't know which politician is worse (tip: all are crappy), you don't know which farma company is more evil (tip: all do care more about money than the people). And people are lazy too. We're living in the era of information, but most don't research / double check nothing at all. I know that the more the information, the more difficult is to dig / search, but people tend to be lazy too.


But I feel like there are more people now than in the past that see that what the news agencies do is bullshit. And this may, hopefully, get us to something better.

People start to see that many news are paid or follow the news agency's agenda, i.e. they're biased.
People start to see that many news are intended only to exploit emotions, usually shock, in order to keep people watch the advertising in order to find out... nothing unusual.
People start finding multiple sources for news and see that most are useless and unreliable.

News has become more a business than something useful for the end user. Too bad. Should I be worried? Not really. I find it a good trend. The more people see the truth the better the chance the news agencies will have to change and start pursuing useful things and start presenting them as proper, unbiased information.

Simple math tells that in the previous cycles the price has fallen
* from ~1170 ATH to ~150 bottom. 7.8 times
* from ~19900 ATH to ~3100 bottom. 6.42 times

This makes numbers like 8846 or 10750 look possible.
On the other hand, let's go linear: 7.8 - 6.42 = 1.38; 6.42 - 1.38 = 5.04 => (69000 / 5.04) 13690 looks more possible than the other variants.


This is all. Will history repeat itself this predictable? I doubt it. But it makes greatly scary news.
Also, can somebody tell those... journalists... that Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, a coin, not a token?

Interesting. I didn't expect theymos envision the future this good.
The "payment system on top of Bitcoin" together with "many different transaction providers that only occasionally settle their debts with each other and with customers using real Bitcoin transactions" indeed sounds like LN and many similar systems to come.


The email system has been implemented a couple of times for bitcoin too. I remember one was clearly working in 2015, for example. But people understood that it's risky and kinda gave it up.
However, I'm not sure you're showing how good was theymos' prediction, or you try to advertise ethereum in Bitcoin discussion area.

You could have been reading a bit more into the topic. OP has also bought back the bitcoins since he's using them for day trading.
Also stating afterwards that the price did go down... doesn't help much.

I wish it would be easy to measure. Now the electricity price is subsidized, until next spring at least. There are so many taxes and then reductions I cannot properly measure.
By not-so-strict calculations 4 months ago I paid around 15 cents/kWh, 2 months ago I paid some 7 cents/kWh. This month... I will find out in some 10 days.
Since I expect the 7 cents may be an error, I'll go to a middle 11 cents for my calculation, which (based on yours) means 2.42 EUR/month and 88 EUR for 4 years.
While you did scare me, since I feel like CISC processors tend to be more power hungry than RISC ones (eg ARM), hence a RPi4 would have been better for the job, this setup doesn't look like a bad business after all...
I will do the math again after the next invoice arrives.


microSD may not be best suited for such load. From my experience it tends to heat up and start failing (but maybe the adaptors I've been using were not top quality either).
And heavy duty microSD are overly expensive. Plus the 512 is just barely enough. I also guess that a more powerful smartphone may be more power hungry too, but I may be awfully wrong.
Interesting research though.
[Also, fyi: that SH system I consider buying, with that Intel G proc, 4GB RAM and 1TB HDD is just a tad over 100 EUR].


You should have no SIM at all in it. Then no risk to have data
And I would not take into account systems that have own screen. There's usually no reason to buy screen for a machine supposed to run in unattended mode. Remote desktop - in a way or another - should do.
But this is also because I was talking about buying hardware.

---

Fun fact: before this thread I was considering to play with Bitcoin core on a RPi zero W (32bit), just to see how bad it runs. Afterwards I decided I should not waste my time.

Bukele's government must survive the crypto winter first. If that doesn't happen, El Salvador may have no bitcoin when the next bull run starts.
Then Bitcoin price has to get to 100k, which I do hope/expect, but there's no actual guarantee that it will happen, or there's no guarantee it'll happen in our lifetime.

Then, bitcoin is just a coin. While a great increase of its price will make El Salvador treasury look good, while it will make happy those El Salvadorians who kept bitcoin instead of automatically convert to dollars, it's still just a coin. That cannot make the economy of a country become great by itself. Good laws, good infrastructure, great education and many other things are needed.

We cannot know the future. We don't even know if or when global economic recession will happen, nor how big it will be and what will be the effects on bitcoin ATMs.
What I know is that Bitcoin ATMs tend to have a bit big fees and the KYC laws will - sooner or later - affect them all. For now the big premium may be OK because of anonymity. Later.. no use.
Back to recession: in such cases many liquidate all the investments, including bitcoin. So an even worse crypto winter may happen. In such moments the extra fees do hurt. So the impact may be negative. But again, we don't know, it's just cheap speculation.

Thank you both for the input. My conclusion is that since there's no IBD to take care of, the setup is not that bad, although it could use some more RAM.
The only really worrying part may the consumption.

IBD is - by far - not an issue, I've already done that with a much more powerful machine, the blockchain is already on the designated HDD.
This 6-7 years old system would just sit running 24/7, hopefully without creating too much useless heat.

Only Electrs (or ElectrumX?) will have to rebuild its indexes (Bitcoin Core will have his own, built on the main PC).
And I hope I'll do this without pre-made (and not as much configurable) things like Umbrel and so on.

Since I am not good in hardware stuff and since I somewhat eyeing a configuration to move my bitcoin node away from my main computer... how bad is this CPU: Intel Pentium G4400T 2.90GHz?
Would I hate myself if I start using a mini PC with that CPU and 4GB RAM?

Very nice of you!

About the classes.. you should ask more on the forum. The fact you have small errors here and there means that you didn't understand everything perfectly. And this usually translates into students not understanding everything perfectly. And unfortunately, in the bitcoin world, misunderstandings can easily translate into funds lost.

I don't want you stop teaching them, no way, you're on the great direction. Just you too have to keep learning.

Since you don't need that air for burning like an engine, I don't see any problems than what you stated: less dense air may give more work to the coolers.
Another idea could maybe be that if the altitude is too high you may not find so easy (qualified) people who would work on the maintenance of the mining farm. (But that's in case of a remote area, El Alto is a big city so it's not the case).

Bitcoin has no design related to how much it should cost. So what you seem to propose/dream of is some sort of manipulation of the free market.

Well.. bad news: there will always be exchanges that won't obey your "rules" and there will always be entities (people, companies) who will want to acquire more bitcoin (whether from exchanges, or from other entities), or there will be people working for it, there will always be entities selling bitcoin (either on exchanges, either directly p2p). There's literally no way to really restrict anybody from buying or selling bitcoin.

Sorry, as you see, what you propose is highly unrealistic.


PS. You said "stable coin". Stable.. compared to what? Other fiat currency? Which would be that and why? Or maybe gold? Or...? (In reality no financial value is really stable..)

As said, 99.99% sure it's a scam. Too good to be true ("high returns") should ring the alarm, if cloud mining doesn't. Stay safe.


As said, you have to upload somewhere else and get links.
Even more, you're newbie on this forum and only the link will be visible, not the actual picture, until you rank up. Of course, somebody may quote it and make it visible for you.