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China close to dropping under 5K people - not good for us bulls...
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The red dragon is really falling. Not sure if the crash will come or not. Everybody is waiting for a price dump and as soon as it goes under 800 everybody buys coins like wild. I´m not sure anymore if we will easily go through the 1000$ because it looks not attractive to trade 1000 to get 1.
Trust me I won't buy like crazy just under 800...People forget that one week ago it dropped in the 400s and 1 month ago it was in the low 200s. The sad truth is that there is no "buying like crazy" going on. If it continues to fall, a rout is much more probable than a buying frenzy. China is falling, with lots of coins listed for sale and no corresponding buyers. Is the fact it's the middle of the night there not a factor? |
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Yes, this warning is good for bitcoin and for the chinese. It's maybe short term bearish. I didn't witness the mania in China and the public concerned by this mania so I cannot judge.
It crossed Y1,000 in Oct 19, and (almost) hit Y7,000 in Nov 19. +600% in one month, followed by a -50% initial reaction and now struggling to consolidate high in 5,000s. So many here wishes and feels that the crash is coming. Well sry to inform you guys, but what you wish or feel has very little or nothing to do with the price today or tomorrow. Price is going up, because people have not stopped buying. In fact people are buying shitloads of coins every day and if you sell to them, there's a big possibility that you have to buy back at loss if you want be in the train when we hit 1000, 2000 and maybe even 3000.
Now this reeks of desperation. I feel (  )that in the end the bears are right after all. They can sit on both the fiat gains and the bitcoin gains, whereas the bulls will rush to the exits when we go south because their portfolio is all-in and it is consuming them. It takes roughly the same amount of new money entering in, to raise the price from $200 to $800 than it takes from $800 to $1400. In the October runup, we had undervalued starting point, stellar news and China mania. For December, we have "to the moon" from people who have no fiat in their bank account that could possibly lift it to(wards) the moon, short-term overvaluation, and an overhang of pending sales from rational investors who diversify as price rises. You dream of exponential new money flowing in. Yeah, long term you are right. Just hold onto your coins while we dig deeper  He has a point - the diehard bulls are all in, waiting for $1000. Anyone speculating has both fiat and coins, and will play both sides. New money needs to be very big to climb up the price wall in front. The support is not under the BTC price it looks heavier at price points above. I think long term it's up - but it will be a bumpy ride and big speculators will do better than diehard bulls if they are clever (which, one has to assume, they are). |
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According to Fiatleaks - still twice as much cash coming in from CNY as the rest of the world's currencies combined...
And the BTCC seems just flat right now.
Last time, before it corrected, currency in dried up fast.
I am not saying it's a bull market (who can say) - but China does not look like pulling us down right now
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I am not sure those big buys have produced a solid new level - they look like they were intended to start a new bull run, but it doens't look amazingly solid, support-wise.
Have put a little in fiat just in case it's a rpietila plot!
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Fiatleaks showing a ton of money going in from China...
China exchange jumped up with 1000 BTC purchase at the same time as Gox with similar amount.
Big fish feeding...
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fairly strong buys on gox in one minute - about half a million bux... good sign?
The best indicator about where the price is going is buying/selling. If people buy price goes up. If people sell price goes down. Yeah I realise that - just hoped it would lift the doom and gloom around here |
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fairly strong buys on gox in one minute - about half a million bux... good sign?
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If you buy into the delusion of bitcoin singularity, remember it was me who prophesied it first.  I agree with the general trendline you've laid out, but the flipside is that these deviations can be quite large within the trend, and they tend to go into overdrive before they calm down. I think your 2-3K then crash to 1K (or crash to $500 and then level out above 1K for a few months) scenario is more a little bit more likely than an exhaustion and consolidation in the mid-hundreds. But maybe that rhymes too closely with April 2013. China pulling a 2011 could bring the price to more like 5K before crashing down to 1K. There's just a lot going on right now, and it felt like a perfect storm a few weeks ago. Now it seems we're consolidating. On the other hand, just a little bad news and a few whale cash-outs could douse most of the bullish news sentiment such as the Richard Branson thing. It would be seen in hindsight as "bubble indicators." I'm thinking 65% chance of a moonshoot from here, 35% chance of a cooldown to low-to-mid-hundreds. I think you're as right as anyone can be. Hard to call, but rpietila won't mind either way - he (tends to) makes money whatever happens... |
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Bitcoin is not magically cheap at $750, just because it was trading at $900 for a few hours, and twice bounced back. That new money is going to the exchanges does not automatically mean that it will be invested the first day if the price is trending down and/or hitting a resistance. Number of bitcoins to be sold in the event of crash trumps any and all new money easily. 1% of 12 million bitcoins = BTC120,000 = $100M Current bid depth in all the exchanges combined = $70M. So <1% of all bitcoins could crash the price to zero. Of course they wouldn't do it, but it is just naive to think that only the buyers decide the price. In the short term it is very much the sellers who decide, because transferring fiat to the exchanges takes long, and if the sellers take it down like in 10-17. April, new money does not even want to buy any more in the following confusion. Sure we can go up from here, but if we do, my previous estimate of going up to $2-$3k and then crash to way less than $1k remains valid. Even if the new money entering goes parabolic, increasingly more sellers emerge as they can finally cash out $millions, transform their life, AND leave enough bitcoins to become ultra-rich if the rise continues. This will put some dampener to the price, which is already much ahead of the exponential trend. The double top and an intermediate term bear market remains a possibility. That would be something new  Funny that nobody is questioning why the price rocketed up before all the positive news and is now struggling...  $350 is cheap, it is the ATH from 15 days ago $500 is a reasonable level to start buyback. If you buy into the delusion of bitcoin singularity, remember it was me who prophesied it first. Conclusion: we're going, down, Down, DOWN? He is just pointing out, quite reasonably it has more 'room' to go down than up and the news was priced in before the new money came in. I think he is still a long term bull, but is saying there is no real support for prices above a few weeks ago with money difficult to get in to buy and new money being nervous. It's still going to bounce around a lot before we go to the moon, even if you believe ultimately (as I do) we will. That is all. |
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wait were not going to the moon anymore?
Plenty of fuel, but no matches to light the touchpaper, mate. Pretty boring - wish I have gone out! |
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cool chart but the other possibility is it tops off here into another linear regression? You need more data, but just looking at the last two "bubbles" the slope has been less steep and it has taken longer. The current "bubble" seems to follow this pattern (so far). This may be indicative of greater market maturity (more exchanges, higher value, greater coin distribution), or something else. Was that "...or something else.." done in a Vincent Price sort of voice...? |
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Seems to be some way different today, constantly big buys more than 40BTC at a time going to China on fiatleak. Is this about some real rich guys starting to buy in or for some other reason?
Yeah - just took a look - 40 times the cash coming in from CNY as opposed to USD.... |
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Someone posted a 1,000 BTC ask wall @ 740. Imagine it being dumped all at once  Edit: now above 1,200 BTC. Someone wants out.... which exchange? e: oh, btc-e Indeed, BTC-E. Forgot to add. Could miss an opportunity, but took the small loss and FIAT for me tonight. Wonder what reptilia is up to with his Saturday Night surprise? Him and probably all the big money have actually probably gone out to enjoy themselves, leaving us to watch the occasional whisps of tumbleweed sales bore us to death.... It's Saturday night and there is no fighting - can us minnows not do anything unless the big money decides? |
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Spread on Gox is as low as 0.0001...
I am nodding off here!
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Charts are starting to show weakness I must admit I agree - with all the new money - it seems very shaky and lacking in true confidence, even to break over 850 convincingly... |
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Momentum on Gox... climbing now....
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Stamp goes up back again. So strange today... Or at least I never watched the price for 3 hrs a day before ^^
Gox back on, it dropped when Gox was down, then went up when it reappeared... During this intermittence, we aren't going upwards. I was saying Stamp went down when Gox was off , then (Stamp) bounced up when Gox came back on. Ah. Gotcha No worries - but if Gox goes down, any nerves and Stamp drops - fair enough. Sell on a Gox 502 at Stamp, then buy back the second Gox goes back on. I made big bucks on it, nearly 12 dollars! |
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so whats the 502 ? .. attack ? shut down ? ..
Maybe the little guy who pedals the dynamo connected bike that powers things at Gox had to take a tea break? |
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Stamp goes up back again. So strange today... Or at least I never watched the price for 3 hrs a day before ^^
Gox back on, it dropped when Gox was down, then went up when it reappeared... During this intermittence, we aren't going upwards. I was saying Stamp went down when Gox was off , then (Stamp) bounced up when Gox came back on. |
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