Are you just making these posts as a precursor to an "I told you so" post, when the time comes?
I hope he makes one. Those rare moments of joy are one of the few things left to strive for in the bitcoin forums.  I hope he does too, if he's right. He would deserve to brag about it. EDIT: Of course, there's always the possibility that he is affected by SIWOTI Syndrome too.  |
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For a personal project? Yes, I think it's great! I've thought about the same thing...
For a product to construct and sell? Not going to work... there's just not going to be enough profit in it vs the cost of the hardware inside. Even with free electricity, it will soon take 5-10 years of mining to pay off graphics cards with mining income. Extrapolate that down to months, and it'll only be a few $. Add in the cost of replacing broken hardware, and you're going to be SOL down the line no matter how you look at it.
Since you consider the hardware a sunk cost and not worth reselling, I think it still makes a great personal project. I always tried to find a way to make it work in the business world though, and concluded each time that it just wasn't worth it in any sense of the word.
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Personally, I'm not going to give $600+ to some place for a pre-order of a completely unproven product.
And that's well within your right. The people who have pre-ordered obviously don't mind sending money for an unproven product. So what's your point? Are you trying to warn people? If so, why? Are you just making these posts as a precursor to an "I told you so" post, when the time comes? |
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URI = clickable links on a webpage that would open up your bitcoin client to send a payment, correct?
If so, it's neat that they recognize it!
Also, what does "dereference" mean in this context, and why is it very dangerous?
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It's amazing how many commodores and apples still exist and work. Excluding hard drives, floppy drives and the like.
Every one of the laptops I have owned eventually shit the bed yet I still have a working Commodore 4plus, apple IIe, Commodore 64, pong, and the atari 2600 (Sears version), Wyse terminal, VT100 terminal, and more geeky old shit that used a lot of power. I hold on to a 13 inch color tv just to plug these things in, wait tens of minutes for it to start and 10s more minutes to load a game just so we can point and laugh at an 8 bit world. (Loaded from cassette with a modern boom box, holy shit, those things are 32 years old and they still work) Back then, they built computers to last. Who wants to pay $20,000 for a piece of equipment that dies in a few years? Nowadays, people replace their computers so often for upgrades that it doesn't really make sense to build them to last more than a few years. Not to mention, modern electronics are incredibly complicated compared to old pong machines and commodores. Lots more bits and pieces crammed into smaller spaces with more heat to dissipate. |
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Price is quite high... 5 BTC = $58.15, whereas I can just order it from the company's website for $39.99.
Thanks for your feedback. Price lowered to BTC 4.2 BTC. Are you just ordering these things from that website and entering in the people's shipping information? |
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It has an AMD A6 chipset and gets something like 6ghz PSU. I'm unsure as to what the GPU is comparable to, but I'm wondering if it would suffice as a part time miner. Any ideas?
6ghz PSU! Wowza!! Anyway, no. Mining on a laptop will get you pennies a month and decrease the longevity of it. A bad idea all around. |
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I was just freaking out, went into the kitchen to get some thanksgiving ham.. spilled the salt, put some over my left shoulder like the superstitions tell you to, and then it became confirmed like 5 seconds later. So now I know how to fix it in the future!
> Transaction: a8780d5bca15f75a6dbefb28e7a27de4ba4f70e292b0834467ef97c253da95fb > Fees paid: 0 BTC I can think of another way to "fix it". Do you have a choice when it comes to withdrawing from deepbit though? |
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Moneypaks can be applied to paypal accounts without worry of reversal, right? If so, I'll take you up on that offer.
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1) Making public information about how he created his cold wallet, or how it is stored, or where it is stored reduces his security.
Security through obscurity is not security. Passwords are security through obscurity, so yes, it is. Ok smartass, let me just quote wikipedia for you Security through obscurity is a pejorative referring to a principle in security engineering, which attempts to use secrecy of design or implementation to provide security. The fact is though, revealing information about his cold storage procedures DOES reduce the effective security of said procedure. One less unknown is one more factor a malicious entity could use in planning an attack. I know the argument is that security measures should always be 100% bulletproof, so that even if all the facts were known, it wouldn't be possible to crack, but it is very rarely the case that such a scenario can be created. Especially with regards to cold storage, the malicious entity would want to know where it is stored, how it is stored, how often and when it is accessed, etc. Each of those unknowns is "security through obscurity", but each one, if revealed, would help an attacker with pulling off a heist. Just my two cents.  |
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What about BitcoinFeedback ratings pulled in beneath usernames via a greasemonkey script?
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Price is quite high... 5 BTC = $58.15, whereas I can just order it from the company's website for $39.99.
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I'm expecting a 20-30x difficulty rating, no meaningful increase in BTC/USD price, a halving of the block reward, and a ROI of around 6-8 months... Agree that people expecting to get all their $$$ back in a week are crazy but over the long term the BFL power consumption means it will continue to be paying for itself well into 2013.
Will
The people expecting to get all their $$$ back in a week are the ones that had preorders in on the first day, and will (likely) be receiving the first ASICs out. And those people very likely will have a 100% ROI in around a week, provided the BTC price doesn't take a sudden dive. I'll let you know. |
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1) Making public information about how he created his cold wallet, or how it is stored, or where it is stored reduces his security.
Security through obscurity is not security. Passwords are security through obscurity, so yes, it is. |
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Surely, profitability is a function both of the network difficulty level and also the exchange rate if you're cashing out into fiat immediately. Obviously, early adopters are rewarded for having taken the risk of the early plunge. If I could dig up the $30k I'd be seriously tempted by the ASIC minirig. Somehow, though, I can't see any bank lending me that.  I tried - they asked what the loan would be for, I explained mining, and they promptly sent back a professionally courteous email saying my laon request had been denied.  HAHAHA that took balls man, good show. Would YOU finance the very thing that could destroy you? But really I'm sure bitcoin and banks can co-exist fruitfully. But banks must hate it at this point. More than likely, they had no idea what I was talking about, thought it sounded like a risky investment I was making, and didn't think I could pay it back if the investment didn't pan out. I should have just told them I wanted to buy a car.  |
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Hey all the dumbasses above me, how am I wrong here? You just keep posting immature bullshit and saying I'm wrong but seeing as how I'm not, I'm curious, how do you think I'm wrong? Are you just assholes or are you all truly in denial about ASICs? You must have A LOT of pre-orders to be that stuck in pretend land.
I hear BFL claimed their FPGAs would run on like 20W and it turned out they ran on 80W and the company's excuse was that they misunderstood the manufacturer's specs or something like that. So there's your actual precedent that actually happen with BFL. HELLO?!
So you disagree with me and think when they come out, your kill-a-watt meter will say 1500W on the rig with zero variance whatesoever. You sincerely believe that and say I'm wrong and that it will be exactly 1500? Okay, keep thinking that. Good luck with that. By the way, in case you missed the last paragraph, BFL has epically screwed up their power ratings on their last hardware release!
Oh and their CEO was convicted of fraud. If that's not a little bit of a red flag, you're too stupid to be in the bitcoin community. Just assume everyone is a scammer as a starting point and then get slightly more suspicious when you find out they are in fact a convicted scammer.
So in summary of your opinion, ASICS will make a ton of money, nobody in the community ever runs a scam ever, BFL is famous for exact specifications, and ummm I think leprochauns exist was in there too. Alrighty then.
I never said BFL's actual power usage would be right on the money. I said it was ridiculous to add a completely arbitrary amount of power usage to their released specs, then claim it was true and base your ROI calculations on it. Also, you're on ignore now, don't expect me to respond to any of your other absurd allegations. I'll unignore you when I pay off my ASIC, just to rub it in your face a bit. |
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I want to share the fast calculations i did a few days ago.
1) let's suppose to be around 10M$ in ASIC preorder
2) the $/GH is 21.6 ($/GH) (1300$ for 60GH)
3) so there will be around 460TH of hashing power *added* when the preorders delivery (10M$/21.6$/GH)
4) as of now a 1GH/s miner does around 0.3512 BTC/daily with a total network power of 21TH
5) let's halve that amount since that we will soon go from 50 to 25BTC per block, that's is 0.1756 BTC/day
6) the hashing power will go up around 20 times, that means that your profit per day per 1GH/s will go down of around 20 times, that's is 0.00878 BTC/GH/day
7) now let's suppose to have around 60GH/s of hashing power, that's 60 * 0.00878, 0.5BTC/day @50-100W
8 ) you need 120BTC to payback your 60GH/s mining hardware, that's 240 days, not taking into account the power usage.
9) after 120 days the asic market will be completely different, with people buying 1TH for 1000$
Yes, you are all screwed.
You just pulled that 10m$ pre order out of your butt.... There is no way that there are that many pre orders for ASIC. There are just not that many people in the community to invest that kind of money in mining equipment. Wasn't that an almost accepted data of how much BFL got on pre orders? No - it is pure speculation. I believe when BFL opened up their pre-orders on 6/23, Bit-pay set a new record for amount processed, and I think it was somewhere just over 1million USD in a 24 hour period. Considering that the waitlist only shows the first day going up by about 500 orders or so, and we're coming up on 9000 order numbers, it's quite possible to be around 10 million in sales. It was only $250,000. BitPay received considerable media attention after their payment processing service handled a total of over $250,000 worth of transactions in a single day after pre-orders for Butterfly’s new machines opened up for sale. http://bitcoinmagazine.net/bitpay-exceeds-1000-merchants-accepting-bitcoin/I am fairly certain $10M is a high estimate, by a fairly large amount, but I could be wrong. My point was though, there is no "accepted" number, and certainly, $10M is a guess just as any other number would be. If there's one thing BFL is famous for, it's exaggerating hardware specs. I think they were off by 400% on their FPGA's power rating  I do think that given the release date vs current date, they did just get in the actual prototype units to test with. But still, a precise 1:1 ratio of GH/s to watts is completely ridiculous. If you slapped the biggest rig on a watt meter, it'd probably draw like 1653 or something, not 1500 precisely on the dot. The probability is basically impossible so I do think it's just an abitrary alteration to their purely theoretical speed and power ratings. Let me get this straight. - A company releases specs. - You don't believe them, so you make stuff up and state it as fact? Am I missing something here? This logic borders on insanity. |
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I want to share the fast calculations i did a few days ago.
1) let's suppose to be around 10M$ in ASIC preorder
2) the $/GH is 21.6 ($/GH) (1300$ for 60GH)
3) so there will be around 460TH of hashing power *added* when the preorders delivery (10M$/21.6$/GH)
4) as of now a 1GH/s miner does around 0.3512 BTC/daily with a total network power of 21TH
5) let's halve that amount since that we will soon go from 50 to 25BTC per block, that's is 0.1756 BTC/day
6) the hashing power will go up around 20 times, that means that your profit per day per 1GH/s will go down of around 20 times, that's is 0.00878 BTC/GH/day
7) now let's suppose to have around 60GH/s of hashing power, that's 60 * 0.00878, 0.5BTC/day @50-100W
8 ) you need 120BTC to payback your 60GH/s mining hardware, that's 240 days, not taking into account the power usage.
9) after 120 days the asic market will be completely different, with people buying 1TH for 1000$
Yes, you are all screwed.
You just pulled that 10m$ pre order out of your butt.... There is no way that there are that many pre orders for ASIC. There are just not that many people in the community to invest that kind of money in mining equipment. Wasn't that an almost accepted data of how much BFL got on pre orders? No - it is pure speculation. |
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Hey ASIC pre-order people, you're screwed That's nothing compared with Bitcoin as a project becoming screwed, as a result of moving in wrong direction. Instead of workload becoming distributed to as many entities as possible (1 billion+ ORDINARY computers using CPU grinding, if nothing else), it will become distributed to (much) less entities than now (5k+ EXTRAORDINARY setups). First you put CPU only miners out of game, now you'll put GPU miners out of game as well. Great job, let's ignore total processing power of all ordinary computers on the planet and the fact few billions are harder to compromise than few! Let's put NECCESSARY work of solving blocks into hands of less and less people, so those who this project is ment to fight against have easier job. Now you can continue with ordinary irrelevant debate. See, I'd argue that if 5,000 individuals are mining, it is just as effective as 5 million (given the same hashing power in both cases). Both are very decentralized, to the point that it would be impossible to compromise the network by compromising individuals. On top of that, botnets will be made completely unviable/unprofitable. Not only does that mean less malicious usage of other people's computers, it also means malicious entities cannot gain control of a significant part of the Bitcoin network via botnets. I see this as a very good thing.
The ignore button,,, That's what it's for !
Ps: I don't mind not paying my hardware back, It's only to protect the network.
I prefer to showcase arrogant people's shortcomings instead. |
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Before you go and label me as one of "those" people. I actually started mining about 2 months ago. started with a small gpu rig about 700 Mhash/s (friend's PC). Now im roughly pumping 2 ghash/s and adding each day. I so far spent absolutely NO money on mining.. I mine with my university's electricity and hardware. I'm sorry you cant be in my position, nor do I care about your current situation. My question was generally out of concern.. Didn't need a smart ass pointing out my sig and depict me as an outsider.
What university do you mine at, and who approved the use of university computing hardware for mining? |
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