here's just how screwed ASIC buyers are - READ THIS if you have a preorder

[Desolator]

Hey ASIC pre-order people, you're screwed Here's why:

#'s have been corrected with more accurate info.  Unfortunately not much has changed

I've been going around trying to get more exact numbers from the major ASIC manufacturers and so far they don't even seem to know how many preorders they have   So we're going on ballpark estimates and rumors.  Many weeks ago, BFL had stated they have 7000 pre-orders total.  I heard from several other users that it's now stated to be 14,000, but taking into consideration other things, it's now much lower.  Let's say 5000.

Let's be conservative yet realistic and say that that's 4800 Jalapenos, 150 singles, and 50 mini-rigs.  That's 16,800 GH/s + 9,000 GH/s + 75,000GH/s =  100.8TH/s.

BTCFPGA's line of products:  They're the only other ones expected to ship before 2012 concludes so they've got to be a pretty good target.  Rumor has it, they're around 400 so let's go with that and split em between their 2 product levels.  That = another 16.2 TH/s.

The Avalon allegedly has a lot more than I thought despite shipping in fairly late 2013, like 3-4 months after their competition at which point ASIC mining will be extremely hard to profit form.  Well, they have some special 300 pricing but haven't hit it yet so let's say 150. That's another 9 TH/s.

So that's 126 TH/s total added in just preorders.

The number of people willing to risk lots and lots of money on a preorder for an experimental device from somewhat sketchy companies is definitely less than the number of people who will buy mining hardware soon after it's released to the public and proven to work for at least a short period of time.  I'd say it's 5:1 but let's go conservative and say for every 1 preordering daredevil, there are 2 people that will buy the hardware once it actually comes out and works.  Also they'd obviously be more inclined to buy higher end hardware than the Jalapenos for example once there's practically 0 risk (post-release) but once again, let's go conservative with a best case scenario and not adjust for that.  So with my numbers, that's another 252 TH/s for a total of 378 TH/s.

And the current total computational of the network is around 22.5TH/s.

So, since difficulty and price all scale evenly with each other, I can do this in any order.  A BFL jalapeno runs at 3.5GH/s and at the last price I recall from MTGox ($12.80 USD per BTC) and the current difficulty, that will pay for its $149 price tag in 11.19 days.  Not bad!  HURRAY, let's all pre-order!  Hell no, keep reading, lol.

By the time ASICs are released, 25BTC instead of 50 will be the mining reward per block and I think we all know the price won't magically jump to 2x overnight so let's go ahead and double that.  That's a 22.38 day payoff.  Now let's add all those new miners and readjust for the resulting difficulty increase of approx 16.8x, and you'll pay off your Jalapeno in 376 days which means you're making $0.40 USD per day.  That's all assuming that from release time to about 1-2 months afterwards, nobody ever buys another ASIC miner for that entire 376 days.  Let's factor back in future sales rates and....you're not going to pay it off, lol.  So let's say my numbers or estimates are somehow drastically off and give it a + or - 70% accuracy variance.  That results in...you still being screwed, lol.

Good luck with that!

[bobitza]

Acording to BFL_Josh I would cut that BFL TH output in half due to a lot of fake orders.

Still, I agree that it doesn't look like a "sure thing" money for people that will order after and even for people that pre-ordered.

[Desolator]

Wait, whaaaaat?  How do you fake a bitcoin or paypal order?  I mean yeah, demands for refunds via paypal's fraud tools but 20 or so of those would freeze their account instantly, let alone 7000.  Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought it was order + money now, hardware later not order now, money + hardware later.

[heinz]

If you go through the order process and never fwd the bitcoins or payment the order number still goes up by 1.

[Desolator]

If you go through the order process and never fwd the bitcoins or payment the order number still goes up by 1.

Ohhhh, they should clean that up, lol.

I put my best scientific minds on this and they came up with a simpler calculation that's guaranteed accurate!  There's still 50 BTC (well 25 soon) to go around every 10 minutes regardless of total TH/s.  That's how the protocol works.  So take whatever your hardware's capabilities are and divide it by the total TH/s of the system and multiply that by 25BTC and you'll get how many BTC you'll earn per 10 minutes

[bobitza]

Ok, maybe fake is not the right word to describe it. I was saying orders that didn't go through (buyer changed his mind or just wanted to see what the number was at that point in time) but the order number incremented anyways.

[HorseRider]

you will be very pleased if you have a 20% ROE in most other industries, which approximately means that investors cover their investment in 5 years. ASIC is still good investment, though a little bit lower than the expectation.

[squid]

First off, its not like these companies will be these products instantly. The network hash rate isn't going to increase 20 fold over night. This means early investors have a significant advantage over later investors. Second, your prediction over another 2x increase in network hash rate is probably not going to happen unless a price war occurs. People aren't going to invest in bASIC as the ROI goes down with the network hash rate going up. There will be some wall that is hit until all the ASIC companies lower their prices significantly which will result once again in an increase in hash rate..

Overall, if you are an early adopter you will definitely make a good chuck of bitcoin. The real question is, which company will ship first, whose theoretical numbers are most accurate (in terms of power use and hash rate) and for later adopters who is most likely ship out fastest.

[Desolator]

As soon as someone hops in their time machine and tells me what the price of BTC is 5 years from now, I'll make that my target break even point, lol.  Ohhh waaaait, that's right, I'm broke as hell right now, so I would prefer money right now lol.  But yeah, this was mostly just to discourage horribly unrealistic people from thinking they'll make loads-o-moneyz after like 12 days when it's closer to 9 months to never

Btw my best math takes the 14000, includes BFL-hater trolling w/fake orders, people just curious about their total sale count, and people testing if the final page on their order site actually loads....*clicks calculator* they have 7 pre-orders, lol.

[Desolator]

Squid's right about the timing thing of course.  That's why the only way I'm getting a device is if I am guaranteed to beat 95% of all other preorders by at least 5 days.  But then the whole theory goes out the window because no matter what any company says, they're ALL LYING!  They will plug in a top end device or two that they made to mine before anyone else.  If BFL just happened to switch on 10 of their rigs for 1 day, that's about $2300.  Or they could ship them and not make that money.  If I was a business, I'd run em for a few days before sending them out

oh and since like a couple million USD was turned into BTC to make pre-order payments at BFL and the price magically went from $4 to $12.80 because of it, without that demand and with paypal payments available, it's gonna see <$5 again.  So that puts my estimate at like 7 years hardware payoff, lol.  But apparently my BFL numbers were inflated anyway so it all kinda goes out the window regardless, lol

[arij]

I know that for BFL and BTCFPGA, that there are orders that people never paid for but are included in the order #'s so your data might be off. 

[crazyates]

So much wrong...

1) There are less than 7000 orders. I went through 7 order numbers myself trying to buy my first SC Single. I know other people go through 3,5, or 10+ order numbers, never paid, and those order number just keep adding up into nothing. WE don't know how many orders there are, but BFL does (and hasn't told us). The Pre-order thread is not at all complete, but does list at least 46TH/s. I'm expecting this to be closer to 100TH/s, to account for people who have not listed their orders there.

2) While your numbers for BFL were high, your numbers for both the bASIC and the Avalon are LOW. Tom has said that he has ~400 bASICs already preordered (which puts him over 21TH/s), and the Avalon pre-order capped at 300 (which puts them at 18TH/s).

3) Even after the pre-orders, I will agree that the network will continue to grow. Obv it will reach 300 or even 400, but who knows how long that will take?

4) The SC Single, MR, and bASIC all have ~50% more speed per $ spent, so they will obv pay themselves off faster than a Jalapeno, even in spite of a skyrocketing difficulty. And a 10 day payback period is just astounding, but that will not last long. I think the price will level out so that a Single or a bASIC will pay for themselves in about a 6 month time (which is what the market is used to now).

[Richy_T]

Here's a possible way to think of it I guess. Consider gold right now. Valuable for the known reasons. Now imagine there's an island discovered in the middle of the pacific that consists of 2-3 times the quantity of gold currently in circulation in trivially mineable form, all you need is a boat to get there. What does this do to the cost of gold? To the cost of boats? Is it worth buying a boat?

Actually, it's a crap analogy since the rate of bitcoins mined is a constant and you'd have to make assumptions about people not being able to monopolize access. Maybe someone could knock it into shape?

[squid]

Here's a possible way to think of it I guess. Consider gold right now. Valuable for the known reasons. Now imagine there's an island discovered in the middle of the pacific that consists of 2-3 times the quantity of gold currently in circulation in trivially mineable form, all you need is a boat to get there. What does this do to the cost of gold? To the cost of boats? Is it worth buying a boat?

Actually, it's a crap analogy since the rate of bitcoins mined is a constant and you'd have to make assumptions about people not being able to monopolize access. Maybe someone could knock it into shape?

Yea except that gold isn't held together by a massive drug trade.

[cedivad]

I want to share the fast calculations i did a few days ago.

1) let's suppose to be around 10M$ in ASIC preorder
2) the $/GH is 21.6 ($/GH) (1300$ for 60GH)
3) so there will be around 460TH of hashing power *added* when the preorders delivery (10M$/21.6$/GH)
4) as of now a 1GH/s miner does around 0.3512 BTC/daily with a total network power of 21TH
5) let's halve that amount since that we will soon go from 50 to 25BTC per block, that's is 0.1756 BTC/day
6) the hashing power will go up around 20 times, that means that your profit per day per 1GH/s will go down of around 20 times, that's is 0.00878 BTC/GH/day
7) now let's suppose to have around 60GH/s of hashing power, that's 60 * 0.00878, 0.5BTC/day @50-100W
8 ) you need 120BTC to payback your 60GH/s mining hardware, that's 240 days, not taking into account the power usage.
9) after 120 days the asic market will be completely different, with people buying 1TH for 1000$

Yes, you are all screwed.

[crazyates]

4) as of now a 1GH/s miner does around 0.1756 BTC/daily with a total network power of 21TH
5) let's halve that amount since that we will soon go from 50 to 25BTC per block, that's is 0.1756 BTC/day

Would you mind relooking at your numbers?

[cedivad]

4) as of now a 1GH/s miner does around 0.1756 BTC/daily with a total network power of 21TH
5) let's halve that amount since that we will soon go from 50 to 25BTC per block, that's is 0.1756 BTC/day

Would you mind relooking at your numbers?

Sorry, copied pasted the wrong number, however the rest of the post is correct; fixed that.

[crazyates]

4) as of now a 1GH/s miner does around 0.1756 BTC/daily with a total network power of 21TH
5) let's halve that amount since that we will soon go from 50 to 25BTC per block, that's is 0.1756 BTC/day

Would you mind relooking at your numbers?

Sorry, copied pasted the wrong number, however the rest of the post is correct; fixed that.

You still got it backwards.

[cedivad]

4) as of now a 1GH/s miner does around 0.1756 BTC/daily with a total network power of 21TH
5) let's halve that amount since that we will soon go from 50 to 25BTC per block, that's is 0.1756 BTC/day

Would you mind relooking at your numbers?

Sorry, copied pasted the wrong number, however the rest of the post is correct; fixed that.

You still got it backwards.

Yes, i fixed it before your post tough
Sorry for the confusion.

[Morblias]

Yep, you are all screwed. Everyone cancel your orders so I can make a lot of money.

Thanks