note: i was permabull until recently. I turned bear just few days ago after seeing how it dumps on paypal-news. Paypal was ment to take this to 5k$
Now what does it do?
Price leads sentiment smalltimer, not news events. Half a billion dollars of VC investment into infrastructure by the end of the year, widespread global merchant adoption and integration, large funds such as GABI entering the market, regulatory engagement, a potential ETF to be approved (opening up a huge potential capital pool of investors) suggests that bitcoin has enormous global future potential. Ask yourself why all this trouble for what is probably only a million active bitcoin users at present. Patience! |
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Ok we all make mistakes, don't be shy and share your drama here!
Yeah. Don't be shy. Have you gone dark after the bull trap closed?  (I really love to necro this kind of threads) Yes they are a rare find on the forums arent they dump3er, on account of the fact bitcoin over a slightly longer timeframe than one year has gone up spectacularly every single year since inception. |
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These sort of people would never dare post in such an area, because the opposition to their tired unsophisticated "critiques" would get completely decimated and ignored by people with any kind of subject matter expertise.
And it is exactly this sort of reply by "bitcoin experts" (the kind who claim that paying with BitPay or Coinbase is "paying with bitcoin") that keeps most people away from bitcoin. Don't be silly professor. Most people have never heard of bitcoin except superficially, nor do they understand it's properties or obvious advantages over fiat currency. I bought a takeaway last night from my blockchain.info wallet using my smartphone via bitpay. It was seamless, instantaneous and flawless. That is typical of the average bitcoin transaction in the future. |
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it will happen the day China/Japan refuse to continue rolling over the American debt and demand the principle back.
By principle do you mean freshly printed dollars? it will have to be freshly printed dollars because there is no other way to pay it back. you can be sure the Chinese and Japanese will immediately dump those dollars and buy anything that is not hammered down, that's when hyperinflation kicks in. Whilst in the end that may occur, betting on unfolding disaster is not a great strategy. Hedging against it with scarce commodities such as gold or bitcoin is undoubtedly a safe move though. |
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everyone who wanted it has it already. The permabulls keep holding and they ran out of ammo since they were calling the bottom wrong too often already. No new money coming in because nobody buys into these charts. Well, too bad, too sad.
Satoshi should have known better than forcing 10% inflation on us almost a decade into adoption.
Once the panic is on it's over.
Let me guess, you have a different coin to suggest?  are you happy with 10% inflation? Do we need that? It wont be that high for long. Come the next halving it will..er halve. Whether i am happy about it is irrelevent. The coins are being distributed as per the algorithm and the really high inflation of bitcoin is behind us. A much better question is whether a centralized mining race is good for bitcoin in the longer term. |
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everyone who wanted it has it already. The permabulls keep holding and they ran out of ammo since they were calling the bottom wrong too often already. No new money coming in because nobody buys into these charts. Well, too bad, too sad.
Satoshi should have known better than forcing 10% inflation on us almost a decade into adoption.
Once the panic is on it's over.
Let me guess, you have a different coin to suggest? |
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ok you've got my intention there, this suggest that you have most of the issues figured out, how do you think we will solve:
1-The Block size limit when the number of transaction/minute is 100 times higher than today.
2-The block chain size when it exceeds 200GB or 1TB ? most users or services will have to use clusters of storage, if the adoption rate picks up this has to be fixed really fast.
3-The energy waste, it has been known that when the price goes up mining becomes more profitable and more resources are brought online...resources that most of us consider wasted, as of today the hashrate is more that 250 Petahash/s, assuming that the worst chip on the network consume 0.5w/ghs (which is way too optimistic) this means that at this point miners consume way more than 125 hourly Megawatts... just FYI a typical nuclear plant produce from 500-2000 hourly Megawatts.
4-DDOS attacks: when Bitcoin become bigger, there will be Big services that run the Bitcoind in order to offer their services, organized groups can run denial of service attacks against these services, you can read more about how they can do it in that wiki I provided before.
5-Malleability issue, and don't tell me it is not an issue, because it really is, and it is not fixed yet, they just found some work around it.
6-Double Spending, even if you don't have 51% of the network you can perform double spending with as little as 25% of the network,
7- The 51% attack, we all know what it is, it is achievable, any government can achieve it if they want to kill Bitcoin, even at this point.
8-man in the middle or packet sniffing, also described in that wiki.
There many more issues, but these are the one that concerns me for now. now I would like to hear your solutions.
Two more: 9- The average wait time for 1 confirmation is about 10 minutes; and, in a significant fraction of cases, can be 30 minutes or more. That is too much even for internet payments, and is unacceptable for shopping at brick-and-mortar stores. (In contrast, verification and payment with a chip-enabled credit card, which is the standard here in Brazil, takes less than 1 minute.) 10- There is no way to correct mistakes (like sending bitcoins to the wrong address) or to recover stolen coins. There is also the question of security against theft, but I am tired of arguing the obvious there... FUD alert! Have you ever bought anything with bitcoin? lol. |
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Without watching all of that, Jim Rickards tends to be very dismissive of BTC. Has he changed his opinion now?
I didn't see him mention it at all. He is concerned about central banks having huge balance sheets and being over leveraged. I didn't see a convincing argument why it does matter that central banks are technically insolvent. After all they can magick new funds and buy assets onto there balance sheets at will (see 2008 - now). What is to stop them simply doubling down (again) and printing currency to make up for private credit? |
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this shit will tank royally.
Paypal - pump dumped lower within days. GET THE FUCK OUT!
If it drops another 5% there will be panic
I already bought more. Did I buy early? |
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it will happen the day China/Japan refuse to continue rolling over the American debt and demand the principle back.
By principle do you mean freshly printed dollars? |
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Please let it be the last.
you stubborn troll, i'm doing you a service, and you're mocking me. okay then. No. You are claiming you KNOW something that cannot be possibly be known. If you don't even understand this most simple of concepts then how can you possibly be qualified to comment on something as complex as a potential paradigm shift in how the world uses money. Try again. Be careful (the same goes for XiaoXiao): Bitcoin and BTC price are two different things. Regarless on how bitcoin might be a "potential paradigm shift in how the world uses money", its price can still go to shit for the following months (and yes, maybe even to $200 or less, even if I have doubts on that happening myself). The two don't necessarily contradict each other. Please don't make the mistake of thinking that they have to go hand in hand. BTC is being VERY bearish lately, everything would point to another "price reset". The recent low ($378 at Stamp and 381 at Bitfinex) is a crucial long term support point. We didn't particularly bounce much from it (not even with the PayPal news) and it is NOT very well defended support wise. IF that support is breached, $200 or less might become a reality. Please let it be the last.
you stubborn troll, i'm doing you a service, and you're mocking me. okay then. No. You are claiming you KNOW something that cannot be possibly be known. If you don't even understand this most simple of concepts then how can you possibly be qualified to comment on something as complex as a potential paradigm shift in how the world uses money. Try again. Be careful (the same goes for XiaoXiao): Bitcoin and BTC price are two different things. Regarless on how bitcoin might be a "potential paradigm shift in how the world uses money", its price can still go to shit for the following months (and yes, maybe even to $200 or less, even if I have doubts on that happening myself). The two don't necessarily contradict each other. Please don't make the mistake of thinking that they have to go hand in hand. BTC is being VERY bearish lately, everything would point to another "price reset". The recent low ($378 at Stamp and 381 at Bitfinex) is a crucial long term support point. We didn't particularly bounce much from it (not even with the PayPal news) and it is NOT very well defended support wise. IF that support is breached, $200 or less might become a reality. BTC is being very bearish? or the price of BTC in dollars? Careful not to mix the two up...  The specific dollar values don't really make much difference to me. The overall price trend and broad order of magnitude price are interesting but only as part of the whole picture. There has been a lot of talk lately about BTC inflation and suppression of the price but its always been a very naive "this, so that" rationalisation. There are a whole bunch of obvious factors being stated in isolation to make for a bearish case, but not whole lot of looking at what all those factors mean when viewed as a whole. I've not really got a full picture - not one worth starting a whole new thread about - but i've been thinking about it a lot lately, the slow periods are the best time to reflect away from the euphoria of the moon! In summary, the all tim high in difficulty is a result of massive capex in mining equipment, capes that is looking for ROI. So we are seeing an all time high in downward pressure. That much has been stated and used to rationalise why bitcoin is doomed, because everyone will sell everything forever, and there is an unlimited supply of bitcoin to keep driving the price down...  Additionally, when talking about inflation people seem to thing it is driving the price down in and of itself (i.e. unlimited supply). They seem to overlook the fact that the selling pressure is largely a product of the massive capital investment that has already happened. Mining has always produced X number of coins per day, but don't think we have ever seen a period where such a high percentage of those coins are being sold daily. Again a naive conclusion here is that the price is dropping because 3600 x <price> = ~$1.5m of dollars must come into BTC every day to maintain equilibrium. If money doesn't come in price drops because of supply and demand, and of course everyone is selling and nobody is buying. Except price is only declining slowly. So clearly their is deeper magic! Beyond the superficial scary price decline. There must be some large proportion of $$$ buying into bitcoin every day, because otherwise the fiat price would have totally collapsed. Yet it hasn't. So what we are looking at is that slightly less then <coins per day> * <current price> in dollars is being converted to bitcoin *every day*. Suddenly that argument that "bitcoin can't survive because it needs $1m dollars a day" becomes, OMG bitcoin is getting over a million dollars a day of investment. Bearish? Really? So what will happen is the price *will* keep sliding till we find equilibrium. Speculative price discovery at the moment is not about what miners will sell at, because they are *all* selling to recoup capex (and what happens when they don't?). It's about how much money is coming in daily vs how many BTC are mined daily. As the price per BTC declines, then less daily 'total investment' is required to maintain that price. So we will naturally find the bottom. Like we found the bottom at ~$2 back in 2011. Which implies daily influx of around $10-15k (before the halving) Like we found the bottom at ~$60 back in 2013. Which implies a daily influx of around $200k Like we are finding the bottom now. Once that bottom is found, things start to happen that mitigate all of the factors that drove the price down. Miners decide to cut their losses. Daily coins available shrinks. Price goes up. Less people sell because they think I might get more tomorrow... The thing with price is, as you say, it doesn't really reflect on the real world nature of BTC itself. The price can fly and crash in the space of hours. In the real world the bullish people are adding value to the BTC ecosystem, however the 'IRL bearish' people don't really do anything to subtract value. So the BTC ecosystem value only goes up. Faster or slower depending on how en vogue it is at any given time. Mining doesn't 'crash' BTC startups don't spike and crash. Ecosystem just keeps growing slow. Daily investment in BTC just keeps slowly chugging along. The market price is just a function of how many BTC are being sold into this daily investment in BTC. This is the fundamental foundation to the base price that I an countless others have postulated on. The massive spikes are what happens when things run away with themselves, when everyone starts holding for that better price tomorrow. That daily investment in BTC doesn't stop it just gets spent on whatever is available, at whatever price. The spikes are fun, but what they draw attention from is the base price. The true 'fundamental' value of bitcoin. What the 'bubbles' hide, is that this base price is what is growing - exponentially, following the s-curve. Fluctuations are just noise. We might hit the winklevoss $40k, or risto's $300k during one of these bubbles, and that too will be fun. If we do it like that though there will probably be a contraction due to things being ahead of themselves, because actually the true 'value' of bitcoin is its base value. In time, as has happened previously, the base price will catch up with and ultimately overtake each and every bubble before it. The only exception is the final bubble. As has been suggested by many others before me, that final bubble will be the overshoot before the top of the s-curve. I don't think that was this time, some might disagree. The burgeoning BTC ecosystem is my 'evidence' that we have a long way still to go. Excellent rebuttal. There is far too much interest in the short term market movements of bitcoin. |
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You can tell he is just trolling because he won't directly answer..
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Paypal integrating bitcoin as justification for future success and price rises is wishful thinking? Not sure I agree with you there.
Of course crypto 2.0 coin could rise up and win the race. But as it stands bitcoin has a huge first mover advantage, huge network effect advantage and is the only crypto being built into internet payment systems globally. It may fail but its upside potential are undeniable.
To say it has reached its potential as we are on the cusp of going mainstream, with huge VC infrastructure investment ongoing, suggests you either sold already or cannot handle the volatility of a long term bull market.
AltaVista had first mover advantage against Google, MySpace had first mover advantage against Facebook. Nokia had first mover advantage against iPhone. I see that everyone here believes what they want to believe and opinions catering to personal biases are favored, others dismissed. I won't post here again. I have no agenda, just posted the message. Do what ever the fuck you want. Well I would quite like to ask your mum the lottery numbers next week just in case.. |
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Your lack of reply isn't surprising. If you failed to enrich yourself in the meteoric bull market since 2011, why should we listen to your trading advice now?
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I tend to buy whenever he posts. Some sort of reverse psychology process I suspect.
good strategy. you must be totally bankrupt by now. Sorry to disappoint you old chap. In fact other than my tesco share holding which has taken a drubbing I am doing rather well this year. This bear market has allowed me to triple my btc holdings and remain firmly in the green even now. Definitely the most exciting part of my portfolio. I cannot wait for an etf to hold btc in a tax free wrapper. I respect the opinions of the older posters who have been through more than the 2 bubbles I have. You seem to have been around since 2011 so you are a straight up bitcoin millionaire right? If you aren't (a signed btc transaction will do) perhaps you could explain why anyone should listen to your noisy warnings? |
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Nobody wants to jump on our sinking ship   You should probably get that myopia checked out, it might be costing you some serious large long term benefits. Nice lines Bitcoin is $394 on BTC-e ... quick, you better close out your shorts then. Nope. $390;) You'll learn. Shorting a bear market is easy until it isn't. Timing the end of a bear market is difficult. Most traders get burned. You may pick up a few more pennies betting on the demise of bitcoin but don't come whining when the price jumps 10% in 30 minutes like it did earlier this week. |
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I tend to buy whenever he posts. Some sort of reverse psychology process I suspect.
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Shorting might be a great advise now. Please don't try to prove to me the bright future of BTC by saying things like ETF/Paypal adoption or that no other altcoins can take over. I'm well aware of these wishful arguments from here or r/bitcoinmarkets.
I'll just say that it doesn't have to be an altcoin to take over - people don't care about decentralized, they want least pain with max outcome. How many of you host your own email rather than letting google do the thing? How many use facebook connect? You know what.. "you" are not even a good representative group of the population, it's clear BTC has reached it's full potential from nerds alone.
We need joe sixpacks and computer illiterate people. And by computer illiterate people I'm saying people that pay to get their windows re-installed every 6 months because it "gets slow" or people who call their ISP about broken internet link just because they accidentally dragged the IE icon to trash bin. Why would they care about BTC technicals (arguably hard to grasp and use securely even for IT professionals) and not convenience alone?
The moment Apple, Google or Facebook launches a convenient, safe and quick value transfer system BTC will bite the dust. And no, these companies are not crazy to adopt BTC - it has a muddy PR image due to massive scams like gox, no "founder" and thousands of early adopters still silently waiting for their exit. I've seen people showing screens of their MtGox accounts with thousands of coins (could be fake, but whatever) because they lost it and can no longer do anything about it, there are certainly many people with thousands of coins lucky/smart enough not to have kept it in that childish exchange. They alone can crash the economy, I won't even touch the mining/inflation that is taking place.
ETF is still vaporware, just another day for the bulls to fix on. Many dates have passed this year with no positive impact already because things like that don't drive consumer (not company) adoption. Joe sixpacks have to have a genuine need for this or be told they need it by their peers. ETF will certainly not change that.
Look how poor an investment was BTC this year - a constant slide down after gox wrap up and scam news. I would not recommend anyone put in their money unless I wanted to lose a friend.
Paypal integrating bitcoin as justification for future success and price rises is wishful thinking? Not sure I agree with you there. Of course crypto 2.0 coin could rise up and win the race. But as it stands bitcoin has a huge first mover advantage, huge network effect advantage and is the only crypto being built into internet payment systems globally. It may fail but its upside potential are undeniable. To say it has reached its potential as we are on the cusp of going mainstream, with huge VC infrastructure investment ongoing, suggests you either sold already or cannot handle the volatility of a long term bull market. |
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it means the mission to infest bitcointalk and sway it into a bitcoin-negative site is working ... Jorge and the team will get their bonuses from Uncle Sam
I wonder why it turns out this way. Initially it was such a quality forum. People meant what they say and you can see that they actually think before they say. Right now, there are so many troll accounts with so many sub-quality posts. Trolls and newcomers that got burned cause they invested on the ATH in December. Now they come here and vent... It's only a burn if you sell! |
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