Please let it be the last.
you stubborn troll, i'm doing you a service, and you're mocking me. okay then.
No. You are claiming you KNOW something that cannot be possibly be known. If you don't even understand this most simple of concepts then how can you possibly be qualified to comment on something as complex as a potential paradigm shift in how the world uses money.
Try again.
Be careful (the same goes for XiaoXiao): Bitcoin and BTC price are two different things.
Regarless on how bitcoin might be a "potential paradigm shift in how the world uses money", its price can still go to shit for the following months (and yes, maybe even to $200 or less, even if I have doubts on that happening myself). The two don't necessarily contradict each other.
Please don't make the mistake of thinking that they have to go hand in hand.
BTC is being VERY bearish lately, everything would point to another "price reset".
The recent low ($378 at Stamp and 381 at Bitfinex) is a crucial long term support point. We didn't particularly bounce much from it (not even with the PayPal news) and it is NOT very well defended support wise.
IF that support is breached, $200 or less might become a reality.
Please let it be the last.
you stubborn troll, i'm doing you a service, and you're mocking me. okay then.
No. You are claiming you KNOW something that cannot be possibly be known. If you don't even understand this most simple of concepts then how can you possibly be qualified to comment on something as complex as a potential paradigm shift in how the world uses money.
Try again.
Be careful (the same goes for XiaoXiao): Bitcoin and BTC price are two different things.
Regarless on how bitcoin might be a "potential paradigm shift in how the world uses money", its price can still go to shit for the following months (and yes, maybe even to $200 or less, even if I have doubts on that happening myself). The two don't necessarily contradict each other.
Please don't make the mistake of thinking that they have to go hand in hand.
BTC is being VERY bearish lately, everything would point to another "price reset".
The recent low ($378 at Stamp and 381 at Bitfinex) is a crucial long term support point. We didn't particularly bounce much from it (not even with the PayPal news) and it is NOT very well defended support wise.
IF that support is breached, $200 or less might become a reality.
BTC is being very bearish? or the price of BTC in dollars? Careful not to mix the two up...
The specific dollar values don't really make much difference to me. The overall price trend and broad order of magnitude price are interesting but only as part of the whole picture. There has been a lot of talk lately about BTC inflation and suppression of the price but its always been a very naive "this, so that" rationalisation.
There are a whole bunch of obvious factors being stated in isolation to make for a bearish case, but not whole lot of looking at what all those factors mean when viewed as a whole. I've not really got a full picture - not one worth starting a whole new thread about - but i've been thinking about it a lot lately, the slow periods are the best time to reflect away from the euphoria of the moon!
In summary, the all tim high in difficulty is a result of massive capex in mining equipment, capes that is looking for ROI. So we are seeing an all time high in downward pressure. That much has been stated and used to rationalise why bitcoin is doomed, because everyone will sell everything forever, and there is an unlimited supply of bitcoin to keep driving the price down...
Additionally, when talking about inflation people seem to thing it is driving the price down in and of itself (i.e. unlimited supply). They seem to overlook the fact that the selling pressure is largely a product of the massive capital investment that has already happened. Mining has always produced X number of coins per day, but don't think we have ever seen a period where such a high percentage of those coins are being sold daily.
Again a naive conclusion here is that the price is dropping because 3600 x <price> = ~$1.5m of dollars must come into BTC every day to maintain equilibrium. If money doesn't come in price drops because of supply and demand, and of course everyone is selling and nobody is buying.
Except price is only declining slowly. So clearly their is deeper magic! Beyond the superficial scary price decline. There must be some large proportion of $$$ buying into bitcoin every day, because otherwise the fiat price would have totally collapsed.
Yet it hasn't.
So what we are looking at is that slightly less then <coins per day> * <current price> in dollars is being converted to bitcoin *every day*. Suddenly that argument that "bitcoin can't survive because it needs $1m dollars a day" becomes, OMG bitcoin is getting over a million dollars a day of investment.
Bearish? Really?
So what will happen is the price *will* keep sliding till we find equilibrium. Speculative price discovery at the moment is not about what miners will sell at, because they are *all* selling to recoup capex (and what happens when they don't?). It's about how much money is coming in daily vs how many BTC are mined daily. As the price per BTC declines, then less daily 'total investment' is required to maintain that price. So we will naturally find the bottom.
Like we found the bottom at ~$2 back in 2011. Which implies daily influx of around $10-15k (before the halving)
Like we found the bottom at ~$60 back in 2013. Which implies a daily influx of around $200k
Like we are finding the bottom now.
Once that bottom is found, things start to happen that mitigate all of the factors that drove the price down. Miners decide to cut their losses. Daily coins available shrinks. Price goes up. Less people sell because they think I might get more tomorrow...
The thing with price is, as you say, it doesn't really reflect on the real world nature of BTC itself. The price can fly and crash in the space of hours. In the real world the bullish people are adding value to the BTC ecosystem, however the 'IRL bearish' people don't really do anything to subtract value. So the BTC ecosystem value only goes up. Faster or slower depending on how en vogue it is at any given time. Mining doesn't 'crash' BTC startups don't spike and crash. Ecosystem just keeps growing slow. Daily investment in BTC just keeps slowly chugging along. The market price is just a function of how many BTC are being sold into this daily investment in BTC.
This is the fundamental foundation to the base price that I an countless others have postulated on. The massive spikes are what happens when things run away with themselves, when everyone starts holding for that better price tomorrow. That daily investment in BTC doesn't stop it just gets spent on whatever is available, at whatever price. The spikes are fun, but what they draw attention from is the base price. The true 'fundamental' value of bitcoin. What the 'bubbles' hide, is that this base price is what is growing - exponentially, following the s-curve. Fluctuations are just noise. We might hit the winklevoss $40k, or risto's $300k during one of these bubbles, and that too will be fun. If we do it like that though there will probably be a contraction due to things being ahead of themselves, because actually the true 'value' of bitcoin is its base value. In time, as has happened previously, the base price will catch up with and ultimately overtake each and every bubble before it.
The only exception is the final bubble. As has been suggested by many others before me, that final bubble will be the overshoot before the top of the s-curve.
I don't think that was this time, some might disagree. The burgeoning BTC ecosystem is my 'evidence' that we have a long way still to go.
