Thanks for your response.

If I were you, I would have started a thread, "Bitcoincharts WAY OFF -- here's why" and explained what you just typed -- it would have informed the community -- taught us all a little something. That's what I try to do all the time.

And there's a difference between authoritatively stating something, and musing/guessing. I always make it clear which I'm doing.

And you're right, the actual hashrate didn't go up by all that much.  I realize variance is just that -- variable. But according to Bitcoincharts, the "spike" was lasting quite a while, due (as you said) to their faulty algorithms. But I had never heard the criticism of their algorithms. I was just asking "why" -- I obviously had serious doubts about 4 TH/s being added in a few hours -- but I figured at least SOME of the spike had to be new hardware -- maybe 500 GH/s. Who knows? 
I (and others) just have to wait for guys who know to chime in and clear things up.

You can run, but you can't hide...

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=28401.0

And then you save $10, and get a brand new card with a full warranty.

This guy is asking $140 shipped, as if he can charge a premium for used cards that are AVAILABLE at places like NewEgg.

He's living in June 2011 -- but hey, guess what? It's not June anymore.

Hahaha.... yeah right.

Pics or it didn't happen.

And what, pray tell, are we supposed to discuss on this mining subforum?

What would meet YOUR approval? (Not that I personally care, but just for the sake of discussion...)

I think people like you enjoy complaining, but you don't post the kind of posts you'd like to see. If you don't want to light a candle, don't curse the darkness.

I have 380 shares, and haven't received the first .01BTC

I'm hoping they will send it eventually.

They sure seem to be "gone fishing" a lot.

And yet, it looks like the hashrate is permanently higher now.

That is, the 3-day moving average has been permanently affected -- not exactly a two-hour "luck blip":

...and at least 1/3 of us live in factories, not residential homes

What is a de-regulated area? I've never heard of the concept.

I live in the country; you'd think that would be pretty de-regulated. We have an electric co-op, so you don't have the usual price-gouging for electricity. In fact, sometimes when they have extra money, they send a bit back to each "member owner" which is what I'm considered.

When I lived up north, the electric company was much more of a price-gouger -- NOT member owned, and we never saw any refunds. They just pocketed whatever they managed to profit.

I just know that we don't have a lot of fees, especially due to "regulation" -- it's just the cost of natural gas for generation, plus a transmission fee (everyone uses cables to get electricity to individual houses -- no one using Tesla technology as far as I'm aware).

Matthew

If you won't miss the money (i.e., you're spending your "spending money"), then go ahead.

Worst case, you don't make much and you have yourself some computer hardware that plays games well.

I would say, however, that the "get rich quick" phase has unfortunately passed.  You're looking at 70-day payoff periods on cards (110+ days on systems) instead of 9 or 10 day payoff periods like we had in early June.

But the problem is, nobody really knows where Bitcoin is going. It's a gamble. BTC could continue to get cheaper every week, even as difficulty inches up every 1 1/2 weeks. That's what seems to be happening right now, so it's safest to bet on that (a.k.a., "more of the same") -- but that could change if something happened out of left field.

Long story short, Bitcoin is still a gamble. Are you a gambling man? 
But it's not exactly like playing the lottery, because when you lose the lotto you just have a lousy piece of paper. PC hardware is better than that.

Matthew

ZOMBIE THREAD of the month.

It lives!!!!

You have to be more specific.

If there is a NET LOSS of mining capacity, then difficulty will go down.

But just because 1,000 5830's are taken offline doesn't mean that 1000 6870's aren't going ONLINE somewhere else.

That's why you have to net it out. The bitcoin network charts show the actual state of the network, based on how many blocks are being found per hour.
The number to look at is "expected difficulty" -- that shows what we're on track to get at the next reset.

Call me out for precisely what?

I'm just trying to clear some of that fog, that's all.

No one pays less than 6 cents a kWh, at least not for their total bill. That's my assertion.
If anyone has actual electric bills handy (and a calculator) to prove me wrong, I'm ready to learn something today.

Please take your grudge against me elsewhere.

Yes, I know what deflation is.

It's something the US Dollar won't be experiencing anytime soon.

More like 12% annual inflation. Ergo, everything goes up in price.

I'd like to see a scan (go ahead, black out your acct number, address, name, etc.) of an electric bill showing a rate lower than 6 cents a kWh, and I'll eat my hat.
In the case of tiered pricing, the total kWh would have to cost .06 each or less.

In other words, it doesn't matter if the first 100 kWh are 5 cents each -- nobody uses that little. You have to average the whole thing.
Same for on peak/off peak hours. Who cares if off-peak hours are 5.5 cents if on-peak hours are 9.5 cents? The question is, what would a mining rig cost you 24/7. So you have to AVERAGE it all.

what is your bill
------------------
how many kWh you used


Matthew

Difficulty isn't staying put -- that's a pipe dream.

Mark my words.

Look at how many people are sitting on *prime mining hardware* who still are just finding out about Bitcoin.

One guy said:

"Even if I can get 1/2 my new PC paid off in the space of 1 year, I'm in!"

...

So until THAT becomes not true any longer, expect more and more miners -- and difficulty.

Moral of the story: Don't run your income calculations with "0 difficulty increases" factored in -- you'll be in for disappointment.

Moral of the story: Don't estimate more than 1 1/2 - 2 months out.

TL;DR (for all you young'uns) -- If the payoff period is greater than 60 days, RUN AWAY. Or at least be patient for a better deal. I'm serious.

So you're saying your rates are higher? That's fine. I'm just saying they can't be lower.

For one thing, the website's data is 2 years old and I haven't heard about anything coming down in price in the last 2 years. Inflation only goes one direction -- up.

And I don't think the SIPA charts are pulling figures out of thin air, either. Their figures have matched up quite well with eventual difficulty increases.

You can see there's an obvious change between the right-hand side of the chart (today) and a little bit to the left of it, where it's often "below the line".

Ain't nobody THAT lucky!

I think it's too big of a swing to be simple "luck".

What is going on? Did some large cluster just go online?

1 or 2 Thash is a lot of 5830's.

But with stocks you just buy them, and go on with your life.

No time spent tending machines, no noise, no heat, no equipment failures...

Mining is more like a business or job than an investment, unless you're buying mining contracts or something. (Or having a friend do the actual mining for a cut of the proceeds -- which is basically an informal mining contract)

+1