A few days back the coinbase app went to number 44 which appeared to be accelerating at a fast pace which would indicate the retail entering the market.

However it topped at 44 and has dropped to >100 right now. Seems like it was just a small bump and it’s trending down again. Which implies that most of the retail is not here yet but should be soon, especially if on Monday we cross into $70K again.

This is probably very hard to calculate.

Reason being is that a low fee transaction usually is bumped off the mempool. Or it’s never even broadcasted with most nodes.

Then if the sender uses RBF then it appears like a new transaction. Only certain nodes can tell that it was accelerated with a higher fee because they see 2 transactions which might trigger a double spend.

Crazy amounts of tether being minted. Just a few hours ago we had a $1B tether mint and then all of a sudden 30 mins later another $1B tether print. Basically $2B in a single day. At first I assumed it was a misprint.

We also had another $1B tether print yesterday. And the circulating market cap is well over $100B now. This implies tons and tons of money is flowing into tether.

Look at the tether premium it’s something like 0.2% which is usual. Means there is tons of demand for tether. The tether prints are lagging the supply.

Even if you lose low leverage you can still have huge loses with leverage. Right now it’s extremely expensive to long with the perp swaps. You are looking at 70% APR. So even if you use 5x leverage the amount you are paying daily will be 5x that amount. So you are losing 350% APR.

Sure you won’t hold it for a year but if you hold it for 2 weeks or 1 month and price trades sideways, you will lose tons from paying the funding fee alone. Hence when markets are volatile it’s best not to use any leverage at all.

Yes today again it broke ATH and touched $70K while at the same time ETH touched $4K. Since these are both important psychological numbers we knew there would be a pullback and we got one.

Lots of shorts were liquidated when we broke up and then lots of longs were liquidated on the way down. For the rest of the day it just traded sideways.

Most likely on Monday we will see some movement and perhaps a crack again at the $70K figure.

In Canada people stopped using them years ago because you need to KYC. And if you need to KYC you might as well just using an exchange. Instead of using the atm and paying 10% fees.

Perhaps you can get away without KYC if you buy $100 worth however even that needs some phone verification at least, so it always will have some form of KYC either way.

Yes I agree. The Euphoria is very difficult when we are hitting ATH everyday but you need to set a target and stick with it.

I am sure last year many would love to sell at $50K but when $50K hit they are all wanting to sell at ATH, now that ATH hit they want $100K. Eventually it will reverse and it will go back to $50k and even head lower.

Hence why it’s best to take partial profits from time to time.

SBF is not in the Bahamas anymore. He was arrested there and went to prison and then after a few days he said he wanted to be tried in the US instead. Most likely the prison conditions were horrible and hence why he wanted to go back to the states.

All claims will be paid out in full. The market rose so much that they are solvent. Everybody will be made hole. However if you had non stablecoin assets like BTC or SOL you will be paid at the Nov 22 prices which is like $16K instead of $68K. It’s locked in fiat and hence why many are upset.

Yes those that got rich by investing in bitcoin were lucky if they bought it early. I would say if you bought in 2015 at $200 you were the early ones. Later in 2018 the lowest price was around $3-4K and since we peaked at $70K I guess the gain would be substancial if you bought lots of it. A small investment of $1000 wouldn’t of made you rich like in 2015 or earlier.

Right now the way to become rich is with all these meme coins pretty much. Look at that wifdog token. Many became extremely rich if they bought a small part of it early on. Same with shib and Pepe last cycle. These are how millions are made not by investing in bitcoin.

Right now from what I can tell is everyone is buying bitcoin or memecoins because they are expecting bitcoin to at least hit $100K this time around.

They know that whenever the ATH is broken, usually there is a huge rally right after. Since $100K is only $31K away, many are speculating that their investment will at the bear min reach that figure.

Look at IBIT yesterday. We had $800M inflows there alone. The boomers with their 401K are buying the ATH break. Going to be a busy year.

Anyone trace these bitcoins and can confirm it was sent to an actual exchange? Maybe it was just a coincidence that he decided to move his coins the same time we hit a new ATH.

Pretty crazy holding all these years. Means he most likely has a larger stash and sells whenever we are in a bull market. Very rare to see coins move from this era.

Yeah was expecting a new ATH after yesterdays $788M inflow from IBIT. However we pumped in the European session and pretty much traded sideways during NY. Looks like ETH hit a new high but not BTC.

Todays numbers were released a few minutes ago and we are $332M net inflows. So the numbers are still strong. I think the culprit is GBTC which was almost $300M outflow today. They got legal issues and are selling lots of BTC to pay for all these lawsuits.

Normally I wouldn’t start a topic when this can be easily googled because I am running into many scam bridges. Also went on Reddit and there are tons of links to bridges which drain your wallet.

So besides using a CEX what is a bridge one can use to bridge assets from the Ethereum (or any ETH l2 network like ARB) to the Solana chain?

We broke the ATH but had a horrible rejection. Initially I assumed we might of topped and this double top would of been it for this cycle however there is light at the end of the tunnel.

I assumed we would have a -$1B day today of etf flows. However most flows were positive. GBTC was -300M or so, it was high but not crazy like -$1B. But we were all waiting for the IBIT number and we were worried it would be low or negative but guess what. It came out and it’s $788M. This is a crazy number. Record high for the etf and 2nd highest inflow day while we broke ath.

So we might get another stab at $69K hopefully.  Seems boomers aren’t still buying bitcoin and they don’t care what price they pay.

Yeah we all assumed it wouldn’t until the halving. In the past it always broke ath a few months after the halving, we assumed this would be no different.

Another difference this time around is that the etfs weren’t a sell the news event which marked the top. Back in 2017 the CME futures marked the top, then in 2021 both the coinbase ipo launch and the bitcoin etf which tracked futures also marked the top. We assumed this would be no different but we were all wrong.

The only coin or token that came marginally close to flipping bitcoins market cap was ETH. This was in 2017 during the Segwit debate and ETH was gaining while BTC was declining and if I recall it came maybe a few %s away from flipping but never did.

Can some meme coins top bitcoin? Sure it’s possible but it won’t hold that market cap for long. Only way I can see this happening is maybe if some entity owns 99.9% of the supply and artificially inflates the price while never actually selling a signal token.

So it’s possible but not likely.

I knew this would happen when they removed the debt ceiling. They should of rose it a little and made cuts along the way to reduce it.

Problem is that this help is paid for by bonds and those bonds demand a 5% coupon right now, so they are getting deeper and deeper into this hole, especially when interest rates are still elevated. No idea if they will ever be able to reduce the steepening of the curve and make it more flat.

Coinbase on the App store is finally starting to accelerate rapidly.

2 days ago it was around 150 Rank
1 day ago it broke the 100 rank at 84

Now its standing at 44 Rank.

If this keeps up most likely next week we might be in the Top 10.


Whenever we are #1 we usually put in a top in crypto, give or take a week or two.

Something to keep an eye for.

From what I understand they sell those otc and they are auctioned off. At least that’s how it was in the past. I don’t think they will send it to coinbase and do a market sell on there.

What surprises me is that they haven’t sold anything since last July and price has been much higher. I wonder what they are waiting for. Now would be a perfect time because most of the sells would be absorbed by the etf inflows. If they sell during a bear market then it would be horrible for price but now since we got lots of demand the market should absorb it.

When there is a tether print and the market cap goes up it means that money is flowing into the crypto market. Now it doesn’t mean they are buying bitcoin. They can be buying Ethereum or some other alt coin, they can just keep it in USDT and just use it as margin for trading or they can even just lend the USDT for some APR gains.

But in general, it’s bullish. It’s because money is being fed into the market and it will help the system grow overall. It’s rare for tether to have burns but it does it happen. Usually when market peaked, the supply is flat and during a long bear market there might be a tether burn or two. But in the long time frame it usually goes up.

We are nearing $100B as I type this. I think we got $500M to go.