BTC created new ATH before Halving: are you surprised?

[OgNasty]

I’m surprised because on the face it seems like this is something that hasn’t been done before. However, once you understand that the market was artificially depressed due to Sam Bankman-Fried’s nonsense fraud, you realize that it isn’t that surprising. Just imagine that the FTX collapse didn’t happen and Bitcoin hit $135K last cycle if you want the pattern and the behavior we’re seeing now to make sense.

[adaseb]

Yeah we all assumed it wouldn’t until the halving. In the past it always broke ath a few months after the halving, we assumed this would be no different.

Another difference this time around is that the etfs weren’t a sell the news event which marked the top. Back in 2017 the CME futures marked the top, then in 2021 both the coinbase ipo launch and the bitcoin etf which tracked futures also marked the top. We assumed this would be no different but we were all wrong.

[Bitco55]

BTC reached a new ATH of 69,170.63 USD today, marking a significant moment in its history. This is a surprising development, as BTC has traditionally never reached a new ATH before the halving event.

BTC halving is an event built into Bitcoin's code that cuts the reward for mining new BTC in half, roughly every four years. This happens because the halving is triggered at a specific number of mined blocks (around 210,000)^[1], and with an average block creation time of 10 minutes, it works out to roughly four years between halvings.

In simpler terms, Halving reduces miners' income, causing the minimum BTC mining cost to roughly double. This means that for miners to maintain their pre-halving income, the BTC price would also need to roughly double. This is considered one of the driving forces behind the historical price increases of BTC observed after each Halving event^[2]. It may contribute to the roughly 4-year cycle observed in both BTC and the broader crypto market, similar to some traditional markets. I believe this cyclical pattern might have been part of Satoshi's calculation when creating Bitcoin.

I believe that BTC history can be segmented into distinct periods. The first period, spanning from its genesis block mined on January 3rd, 2009^[3], to the third halving event on May 11th, 2020, exhibits unique characteristics:

• Singular ATH: a period witnessed a single, prominent ATH, suggesting a distinct price discovery phase.
• Bounded Bear Markets: Subsequent bear markets never dipped lower than the prior cycle's peak, potentially indicating a rising price floor.
• Pre-Halving Stagnation: New ATHs consistently emerged after halving events, suggesting a price increase pattern tied to block reward reduction.
• Fib retracement at Halving: The BTC price at each halving appears to gravitate towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding downtrend.

Due to the consistent properties mentioned earlier, predicting the first stage is generally straightforward.

The second stage, however, presents a more intricate picture. While it may have begun around May 11th, 2020, coinciding with Halving 3, there are some key deviations from the previous cycle:

• Double-peaked ATH: ATH took the form of a double peak, occurring in both April and November of 2021.
• Deeper crypto winter: The current crypto winter's bottom point sits lower than the prior cycle's peak, reaching 15.5K USD in November 2022 compared to 19.8K USD in December 2017.
• Early new ATH: Notably, a new ATH emerged today, before the Halving 4.
• Uncertain Halving price: The BTC price at the time of this halving remains undetermined, with the possibility of exceeding the previous cycle's ATH.

While I'm impressed by BTC's new ATH, as a non-technical investor, I'm cautious about this deviation from historical cycles. In 2021, I successfully timed the market by selling in November-December based on cyclical patterns. This time, however, the uncertainty is higher. The next peak for BTC could be in November 2025, but an earlier ATH in 2024 followed by a crypto winter in 2025 is also a possibility. Predicting this accurately is difficult, and more data is needed for a clearer picture.

I want to know your views on BTC reaching a new ATH before the Halving:

• Are you surprised by this event?
• Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?
• Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?

References:
[1] What Is Bitcoin Halving? Definition, How It Works, Why It Matters
[2] Bitcoin Halving 2024: How It Works and Why It Matters
[3] How and when did Bitcoin start? The complete Bitcoin history

I'm not surprised at all. Yes, this is the 1st time it's price is getting this high, but Bitcoin has the potential to get this high and even go higher.

Predictions already said it'll get over 100 - 500k between 2024 and 2025. So, I believe it'll keep on going up and up and until it reaches these prices and properly even surpasses it... Digital currency is the future and it's starting to show how much potential it has.

[Bobrox]

I am so surprised with bitcoin can created the new all time high price before halving time left one month later, usually the new highest price of bitcoin near future with halving or few days after halving time coming.
I have prediction before with difficulty of bitcoin price after ETF approval announcement and seems not easily for raising up to new higher price before halving time arrive.

Yesterday bitcoin have touched the new higher price and halving time left one month later, will see any possibilities of bitcoin get the new higher price before halving? I think more close opportunity how easily bitcoin recovery after few percent correction with bigger chance to make new other all time high price maybe raise more than $70k.

[rodskee]

While I was waiting for the effect of Bitcoin spot ETF recently but ever that I expected
the price will reach this high.
creating ATH before the halving? damn this never happened before in the whole History
of bitcoin so how come that ow we are seeing this hype.

I am so surprised with bitcoin can created the new all time high price before halving time left one month later, usually the new highest price of bitcoin near future with halving or few days after halving time coming.
I have prediction before with difficulty of bitcoin price after ETF approval announcement and seems not easily for raising up to new higher price before halving time arrive.

Yesterday bitcoin have touched the new higher price and halving time left one month later, will see any possibilities of bitcoin get the new higher price before halving? I think more close opportunity how easily bitcoin recovery after few percent correction with bigger chance to make new other all time high price maybe raise more than $70k.

what I was waiting now is that how much will this run ends before the halvigng?
or will it continue to grow till last quarter.

[Faisal2202]

Hmm, Surprising that you are bullish dude haha because it's a new ATH already and you are expressing your Bullish turn now hehe, Anyway it's totally up to you that you make your market moves. ATH's are always surprising and 150k is not a big deal according to the current momentum I'm expecting a great rise again after May reason some deadlines. At the same time, there's still time to go beyond the 100k, and by the end of 2024 100k will be a little surprising because I'm expecting an 80k to 90k potential gain by the end of the year, At the same time 2025 might bring the optimistic target of 150k+.

Who knows what's gonna happen, still these are some of my instincts.

hmm, it's surprising that your words also looks bullish to me haha, because it's already new ATH, BTW what was the previous ATH, it was around  $67,567 (let's round off it to $68k) and the current ATH is $69,170 which to me is not a big target. Well, your words are also expressing your bullish turn now hehe. BTW what deadlines are you talking about, maybe the ones for MT gox payment, or the selling of BTC from the US government? If that's so then is it possible that if people will start to sell their BTC?

The market can consume them without impacting the demand and supply ratio in a negative way. I think it is possible because once more ETFs are approved, as the company already had future ETFs approved, then spot and now they are applying for option ETFs also. I think if they are approved more funds can be consumed into these companies and we might not see big impact from the selling of these BTC, because if they will sell, it is possible for the companies that they will buy it.

[Hamza2424]

Hmm, Surprising that you are bullish dude haha because it's a new ATH already and you are expressing your Bullish turn now hehe, Anyway it's totally up to you that you make your market moves. ATH's are always surprising and 150k is not a big deal according to the current momentum I'm expecting a great rise again after May reason some deadlines. At the same time, there's still time to go beyond the 100k, and by the end of 2024 100k will be a little surprising because I'm expecting an 80k to 90k potential gain by the end of the year, At the same time 2025 might bring the optimistic target of 150k+.

Who knows what's gonna happen, still these are some of my instincts.

hmm, it's surprising that your words also looks bullish to me haha, because it's already new ATH, BTW what was the previous ATH, it was around  $67,567 (let's round off it to $68k) and the current ATH is $69,170 which to me is not a big target. Well, your words are also expressing your bullish turn now hehe. BTW what deadlines are you talking about, maybe the ones for MT gox payment, or the selling of BTC from the US government? If that's so then is it possible that if people will start to sell their BTC?

Haha, that's weird anyway it's up to you what you find bullish and bearish, For the deadlines I meant by some ETF approvals, and some other regulatory policy clarification, TBH for MT GOX and the unlock supply I don't really care about it, because there's already a huge lack of supply for accumulation, Haha on that short time even if 100k Bitcoins starts flowing a very short-frame dump is possible.

There are many numbered speculations in market for the March but this week is bullish afterwards a healthy correction is expected.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

I am so surprised with bitcoin can created the new all time high price before halving time left one month later, usually the new highest price of bitcoin near future with halving or few days after halving time coming.
I have prediction before with difficulty of bitcoin price after ETF approval announcement and seems not easily for raising up to new higher price before halving time arrive.

I guess everything has a first? I haven't check the history of Bitcoin, but if it is true then maybe we will see this pattern in the next cycle or it could indicate that this bull run could be very different as well as compare to the previous one.

Yesterday bitcoin have touched the new higher price and halving time left one month later, will see any possibilities of bitcoin get the new higher price before halving? I think more close opportunity how easily bitcoin recovery after few percent correction with bigger chance to make new other all time high price maybe raise more than $70k.

Possible, although it dip as obviously short term investors took that route to sell and get their profits. So there is a huge liquidation in the last 24 hours, not just Bitcoin but the whole crypto space. But it's back to it's normal again, Bitcoin hitting $66k and then possible next move is $70k. Still, the moonboys are inside the market.

[Vincom]

I’m surprised because on the face it seems like this is something that hasn’t been done before. However, once you understand that the market was artificially depressed due to Sam Bankman-Fried’s nonsense fraud, you realize that it isn’t that surprising. Just imagine that the FTX collapse didn’t happen and Bitcoin hit $135K last cycle if you want the pattern and the behavior we’re seeing now to make sense.

Do you want to say that without the FTX crash, we would have entered a super cycle and the market would no longer be as cyclical as it was in the past? I personally think that the market decline in 2022 is inevitable, the collapse of Terra and FTX are just consequences of the downtrend and make the situation worse, but they are not the main cause of crypto winter.

The market always has its own very reasonable narratives: the hack of Mt. Gox in 2014, the collapse of Bitconnect ponzi in 2018 and Terra + FTX in 2022. I believe that the market has its own behavior, and the cycle will still repeat and I hope the peak of this cycle will come in 2025 

[Maus0728]

Definitely a surprise but it's not a showstopping kind of surprise, bitcoin didn't waver at the start of January and it's prices until now just continuously gone up without a sign of decline so that's what I've felt about that event happening to bitcoin, we all got to be ready though as bitcoin has never had a black swan event yet and it's going to be a mess if you're not prepared for that so if you're investing right now, make sure that you're doing DCA rather than buying bitcoins in droves, it would be a bad idea if suddenly the price dumps and you have no money to buy during that price dump, DCA and go all out in investing once the prices goes down which it inevitably does but only invest what you can afford to lose so you're not making yourself go hungry and getting late in rent because you've invested everything.

[Poker Player]

Bitcoin again created a new ATH albeit narrowly at $70,083.05. What is happening is to be expected. When the price approaches resistance like this, the moment it reaches the figure it goes back down because many sell orders are triggered. But I am an optimist and I believe that the buying pressure will make the price go up like crazy very soon. Next stop, the $100K (although it is not going to be a straight line from $70K to $100K).

[Wexnident]

Not that big of a surprise, but was still a surprise. Sure if it was a sudden increase like in the span of a week it went from 50k to 69k, but there were obvious telltale signs that Bitcoin was going up with no signs of stopping for like a month or two. At that point, it was pretty hard to assume that it wasn't going to hit ATH before the halving, especially if you consider how it again, broke through 60k and had no signs of stopping it's growth (or even just steadying it). Though I was on the side where it was going to go steady after that 60k mark tbf.

Well, I guess people learned about what happened in the last pattern and had huge expectations. That and the ETF, which most likely had a big effect compared to what most people saw (which took some time really).

[adaseb]

Yes today again it broke ATH and touched $70K while at the same time ETH touched $4K. Since these are both important psychological numbers we knew there would be a pullback and we got one.

Lots of shorts were liquidated when we broke up and then lots of longs were liquidated on the way down. For the rest of the day it just traded sideways.

Most likely on Monday we will see some movement and perhaps a crack again at the $70K figure.

[2Pizza410000BTC]

I want to know your views on BTC reaching a new ATH before the Halving:

• Are you surprised by this event?
• Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?
• Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?

]

New ATH created before Bitcoin halving is of course surprising to everyone. Every bitcoin holder now has a lot of success in his investment. I have not been able to raise very large investments but I have had great success with the amount I have raised. Creating new ATH before the Bitcoin halving brings with it a better future signal. We know that Bitcoin halving is not much longer, few months after the halving, the bull season will start in the market and the price will increase a lot. Now if the price of bitcoin is between $70k to $80k and after the halving the bull season will surely cross $100k to $170k. So hold bitcoin investment and try to increase the investment only then you will be more successful.

[pinggoki]

Honestly, I'm surprised, there's no other explanation to what happened when I saw it, I expected bitcoin to take it's time before breaking the previous all time high but it didn't and it's a really awesome thing that bitcoin defied my lowly expectations that it's going to go down again but it is what it is and it seems that I'm almost at the point that I'm going to be seeing the profits of my investments. Maybe it's time for me to accumulate even more because there's no other way besides the fact that I would either be missing out or I'm going to spend more if I don't increase what I'm currently buying with my bitcoin right now with my DCA. I'm feeling a little crazy about the price pump right now and I like to increase my selling price goal because there doesn't seem to be a lot of indicators of the prices going up to be stopping soon, we might even touch 100k USD possibly in the next month.

[NeuroticFish]

I was unsure what to vote - 2 or 3 - and I'll tell you why.

The ETF approval was somewhat a surprise, although not that much, the pressure is accumulating for a lot of time. And it's about big money, hence big influence in political decisions. After ETF being approved, the only surprise could have been the magnitude of the drop afterwards, not the quick recovery and ATH afterwards. Again, it's about huge amounts of money here.

But I could have been voting 3, because imho, in the grand scheme of things, this is pretty much just noise and best is to stack sats and hodl.



PS. The price may still go wildly up and down. Try to not get surprised by that. After all, it's still the bitcoin markets

[Reatim]

Bitcoin again created a new ATH albeit narrowly at $70,083.05. What is happening is to be expected. When the price approaches resistance like this, the moment it reaches the figure it goes back down because many sell orders are triggered. But I am an optimist and I believe that the buying pressure will make the price go up like crazy very soon. Next stop, the $100K (although it is not going to be a straight line from $70K to $100K).

Why did I missed this one lol , another ATH last 17 hours ago ? I hate myself for not   having a chance to sell some percent as this is my target price selling .
but maybe this is indication that I need to wait for higher price than just selling small faction of my coins instead in 100k to be all.
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Surprised and up to now still , twice ATH breaking before halving? market is really acting crazy nowadays.

[FinneysTrueVision]

It is surprising because after the ETFs were initially approved we didn’t see the kind of pump many were expecting. The price even started to dip for a while and people were saying the ETF was overhyped. Rather than having an immediate effect, it turned out to be a delayed reaction. After the initial selloff, interest in the ETFs has started picking up which has caused the price to explode.

[Cryptoprincess101]

BTC reached a new ATH of 69,170.63 USD today, marking a significant moment in its history. This is a surprising development, as BTC has traditionally never reached a new ATH before the halving event.

BTC price setting a new price before halving may seem as a surprise but we need to understand that it was expected in the sense that after Spot Bitcoin ETFs was approved, every one was hopeful that the price of Bitcoin would reach a certain milestone since a lot of investors developed interest in Bitcoin after knowing that they would get access to Bitcoin spot prices directly without having to buy.

[el kaka22]

Honestly I am not surprised, yeah it is a surprise in the sense that we are talking about something that would not be all that easy to handle. I think we should be considering all these new things to be all normal. What is unexpected is expected in the crypto world and that should be something that will take a while for most people. I feel like it has to be all the normal things in the end.

I understand that it is going to shock a lot more people but if we could make it work then we could just cause it to be normal eventually. Like maybe it happened this time, and it will happen every time from now on. This is why we should not really be shocked anymore, we should be considering this to be normal eventually. Many things will become normal.