LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. No. Sweden has an extremely large number of people who live by themselves. Italy has an extremely large # of people who live with many family members.
I'm sorry, science doesn't work like this. You take the statistics at face value to begin with and then if there's some extreme mitigating circumstance then maybe you can say that that's the rule rather than the exception. The statistics in this case are very clear - that the lockdowns countries are all top of the league when it comes to relative mortality (i.e. mortality corrected for population). See, i'm in a "lockdown country", but the government locked down early. So we're on the low deaths/100k side of the scale. You are argumenting science, but at the same time you bring in a simple correlation as a causality. Sorry, but this doesn't really work out. It's a bit naive to say science works through isolated metrics, which just isn't true. It's more complicated than that (i was also pointing that out in my first reply). So, what's the real scope of this discussion then? |
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The lack of testing of workers in hospital and nursing/elderly homes has made the virus spread uncontrollably among our most vulnerable people.
Myself is utterly disgusted how Swedish authorities has handled this pandemic so far.
I don't quite understand your "disgust". The difference between Sweden and its neighbouring Nordic countries is almost insignificant in terms of mortality. Meanwhile the difference between Sweden and the big "lockdown" countries is very large - especially given that it's in the "wrong" direction if you hypothesise that the lockdowns are effective. How do you explain this ?  Many differencies, of which i'd look at population density, culture (handshakers and huggers vs. vocal greeters), amount of population living in densely populated cities, education (in regard to San Marino)... Quite complex, you probably can't explain these differences using simple, singular arguments. |
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Now, let me explain to all of you why the Swedish government is not closing down society and quarantining people/closing of areas.
This is a little known fact outside Sweden, and it rarely comes up in the debate.
Neither the Swedish government nor the Swedish parliament has the authority to do that.
The Swedish constitution guarantees all citizens the right to free movement in peacetime, no exceptions but one, people with a dangerous contagious disease can be forcefully quarantined according to the contagious disease act. But that only applies to specific individuals.
And there is no such thing as marshal law in Sweden, not allowed by the constitution.
So, no matter how much people or other countries bitch about Swedens way of handling the crisis, nothing is going to change.
You can change the constitution, but that reacquires two parliament votes with one general election in between.
We might se a change in the wording in the constitution from just "wartime" to "war and pandemics" or something like that, but no such change has been suggested yet.
That's actually an upcoming debate in AT as well, because many of the Covid19 laws that passed parliament are not backed by the constitution. I'm already imagine myself buying loads of popcorn for the next weeks and months. They even discussed the mandatory install of an app on everybody's smartphone that tracks social contacts. A gps/nfc keychain badge was brought up as an idea for cellphone users and people without smartphones (i'd combine such a device with a microwave oven  ). There are still ideologic traces of nazi embedded in the austrian culture. Counselor got support of about 50% of the people. Surrounded by morons, i'm telling you! |
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Thanks V8, appreciate it.
But now I really have to go to bed, please don't let me wake up to a 15 pages backlog.
After a pump well over $10k you would probably love to scroll through dozens and dozens of WO memes, wouldn't you?  I would  I'd say get a lot of rest and then start it up sloooowly again. In the past, i was always working - no matter what - until i got blown down by post viral fatigue for quite some months. |
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As I said, I am sure. For me. Does not mean it really will happen. But I watch all these pumps and dumps for 6+ years now and you start to get a feel for it. I tried trading once in 2016, lost 0.4 coins and never did again. But this time I was really sure that it will drop from 9900s. We see this pattern for weeks.
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That would be telling....
That's why i asked to forgive me I can only congratulate to you then --------------- Back on track, it seems...  |
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.....
Back to the garden for me, spring like BTC, waits for no-one.
You and me both bro! White Widow this year, legal and all. My neighbor caught the gardening bug too. Nothing like a little friendly competition to grow the best! Added bonus...it makes for great chit chat over the fence on a sunny summer day. (six feet apart of course) WW legal? Forgive my curious way, but where? california? portugal? |
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I just drink when I go out with friends, etc. Never alone. No alcohol in the house.
I don't drink any more but drinking alone was by far my fave. Nothing better than slowly descending into a dribbling giggling mess at your own pace. No one else fighting, puking or crying. I used to go through London every week with a few hours to kill. I'd always go straight to the pub, have 4-5 pints on my own, and then wander the city in a slightly floaty daze. It turned that shithole into a world of wonder. Next time, try that on a tab of LSD no risk, no fun  |
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It WAS over 9000 again  Have a nice afternoon. |
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OY
I'm not a native speaker, as you know. My first long-time association of the term "gnarly" is Bon Scott's voice, especially on this track. More than just occasionally when i read "gnarly", i have flicks of memories of the song and/or his voice. Legends. I couldn't believe that Axl Rose is the lead singer of ACDC now. Gotta have to give this a listen, though  |
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Run for your life!
Great, now i have this old iron maiden tune going all evening long in my mind  Happy halvening, WO Run to the hills! Let me offer ACDC Lock up your daughter, lock up your wife. Lock up your back door! and run for your life! The man is back in town Good spot! T N T |
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Run for your life!
Great, now i have this old iron maiden tune going all evening long in my mind Happy halvening, WO |
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There's much more to this, but i'd need "JJG superpowers of texting" to express all this in a meaningful way, i guess Maybe you could hire JJG as your personal wordsmith. This would likely make things worse, because it'd be still me having to explain him what's the matter on each topic. No, this is not the same thing. Or you just tried to be ironic, maybe?  |
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Well i was cleaning up the studio a little today to make room for this thing which fedex delivers today:  Behringer tended to sound quite sterile, at least with their processing equipment. How does this half-modular thingy actually sound to you? I didn't even know they built something like this, last news i had was that virtual analog keyboard synth, which might be aged about 10 years now. Please lemme know about your hands-on experience with this orange mystery box |
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I am going to post something quite unpopular. It will make some people mad at me. This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now. I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.
The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response. The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast. With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state. Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days. In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.
We have extremely bad economic data. On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression. This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen. So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.
But know this. By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked. The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims. They aren't. Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back. Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy. Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy. Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.
The consequences are not going to flow immediately. Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer. It will be warm out. People will say that the warm weather killed the virus. Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time. Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again. People will think we are winning. There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors. Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.
But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad. We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave. 195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918. There are 328 million people in the US. The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%. Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator. If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America. If the hospitals collapse, the death toll has the potential to get much higher.
I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns. This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand. I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November. The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%. Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy. Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders. People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.
My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020. Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage). So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.
Good luck and stay safe.
A. Sweden disagrees B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe. Not this again... Most of these fatalities stay one or two weeks in a hospital, take up quite some resources like ventilators and have to be quarantined in ICUs. Do you grasp the gravitiy of this? You are an idiot. We are doing this right now, right here. We have doubled our number of ICU beds in less than a month, and we are not using them all, not even close. Is that so hard for you to grasp? Or do you just like to be locked up buy your government? you are Austrian after all, you guys love hard disciplin, so history shows us. Just compare the infection charts of Austria and see who's doing it wrong, in respect to the fact we were a main european covid hub in february. It's even not over yet, and Hairy already pointed out that numbers aren't to be easily compared because of different base variables (number of testings). At least i'm clever enough for an idiot to understand this EDIT: The rest of your "argument" is just nonsense based on prejudice. You don't seem to understand that we don't want a low infection rate, we want a slow infection rate. We accept the virus as part of our reality, we don't lock anybody up, all businesses are open as usual, distancing is practiced, but it is a recommendation, not a law, no cop will arrest you if you hug anyone. And I really, really, prefer it this way. See, that's perfectly understandable, plausible and objective wording here. You don't get your point through by calling a discussion participant an idiot. Let's settle with "controlled infection rate", because this is what most nation's leaders want. Some try to achieve it this way, some try other ways, but the health systems, economy, culture of every country is different, that's why i favour the regional, instead of the national control approach. Lockdown is an emergency measure of China, it acted as a role model, and it did match the chinese culture (anti-freedom, so to speak). The rest of the world was caught naked, there were no pandemic plans, but everybody knew that the days when these plans would be needed would come. And here they are. China stuck to the SARS strategy of combating an epidemic virus outbreak. This is imho the main factor of failure, not being prepared. There are some more black swan events waiting which we are not prepared for, like the global power blackout and such. We will react to these events unprepared, and this will always cause more damage than the events themselves would. It's a complex system we're dealing with, so you can't just say: this is good..., this is bad... but only: this will likely have these effects... and so on. Whatever "we" decide to do, it's wrong - in some way - as well as right - in some way. It's a point of perspective. There's much more to this, but i'd need "JJG superpowers of texting" to express all this in a meaningful way, i guess |
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 Still on track. You can see the covid impact quite nice on this chart, too. Now let's zoom in a litte...  |
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I am going to post something quite unpopular. It will make some people mad at me. This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now. I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.
The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response. The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast. With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state. Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days. In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.
We have extremely bad economic data. On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression. This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen. So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.
But know this. By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked. The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims. They aren't. Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back. Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy. Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy. Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.
The consequences are not going to flow immediately. Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer. It will be warm out. People will say that the warm weather killed the virus. Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time. Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again. People will think we are winning. There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors. Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.
But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad. We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave. 195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918. There are 328 million people in the US. The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%. Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator. If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America. If the hospitals collapse, the death toll has the potential to get much higher.
I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns. This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand. I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November. The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%. Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy. Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders. People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.
My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020. Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage). So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.
Good luck and stay safe.
A. Sweden disagrees B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe. Not this again... Most of these fatalities stay one or two weeks in a hospital, take up quite some resources like ventilators and have to be quarantined in ICUs. Do you grasp the gravitiy of this? You are an idiot. We are doing this right now, right here. We have doubled our number of ICU beds in less than a month, and we are not using them all, not even close. Is that so hard for you to grasp? Or do you just like to be locked up buy your government? you are Austrian after all, you guys love hard disciplin, so history shows us. Just compare the infection charts of Austria and see who's doing it wrong, in respect to the fact we were a main european covid hub in february. It's even not over yet, and Hairy already pointed out that numbers aren't to be easily compared because of different base variables (number of testings). At least i'm clever enough for an idiot to understand this EDIT: The rest of your "argument" is just nonsense based on prejudice. |
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The next 60 hours are not entirely insignificant!
Fuck... it's snowing here.
They do finally have internet in alaska? EDIT: Somehow i slipped three or four pages of WO backwards when i was reading/commenting this. I must admit that i made some chocolate, spiced with the concentrated leftovers of my (weed) vaporizer, yesterday |
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Bad Brains! This is the album i stumbled over in record shops regularly back then, it was advertised a lot in the skate magazines, but i still somehow refused to give it a listen. Years later, i couldn't remember that band and album title, and it made me mad that i didn't have a second chance to find out how it sounds. I only reminded that album cover... I can't thank you enough for posting this today, dude!
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I am going to post something quite unpopular. It will make some people mad at me. This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now. I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.
The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response. The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast. With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state. Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days. In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.
We have extremely bad economic data. On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression. This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen. So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.
But know this. By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked. The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims. They aren't. Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back. Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy. Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy. Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.
The consequences are not going to flow immediately. Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer. It will be warm out. People will say that the warm weather killed the virus. Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time. Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again. People will think we are winning. There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors. Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.
But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad. We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave. 195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918. There are 328 million people in the US. The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%. Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator. If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America. If the hospitals collapse, the death toll has the potential to get much higher.
I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns. This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand. I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November. The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%. Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy. Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders. People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.
My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020. Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage). So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.
Good luck and stay safe.
A. Sweden disagrees B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe. Not this again... Most of these fatalities stay one or two weeks in a hospital, take up quite some resources like ventilators and have to be quarantined in ICUs. Do you grasp the gravitiy of this? |
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