Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

I just read the plot to "Clear and present danger".


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-security-videos/detained-american-claims-he-plotted-maduros-capture-in-venezuela-tv-statement-idUSKBN22I2PJ

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[Biodom]

Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.  

OTOH, surrender your liberties and you also surrender to tyranny.

Incidentally, I don't doubt your rather rational conclusions about the effect of what you term 'opening early', as far as epidemiology goes. I just don't agree that the government of a free society has a legitimate authority to order the populace to stay in their cages.

As far as the effect upon Bitcoin, I'm not seeing such a causative factor.

At the risk of hubris, Australia is on the edge of eliminating the virus.  We have 10% of the population of the USA and 97 deaths total.  Our death rate is roughly one-thousandth yours.  

The only difference is that our leaders (despite their other faults) listened to the medical advice.  Within 2 months we should, fingers crossed, have a completely open and fully functional economy with no virus behind our sealed borders.  Many other European countries will also be in the same position.  

Meanwhile the US will lurch from crisis to crisis over the next six months, with hundreds of thousands and possibly millions dead.   You can keep your liberties.  

On Bitcoin, I suggest it is only a 50% chance that it will trigger another significant crash.  It is really hard to tie the real economy to Bitcoin, and question the extent we should try

I wish your country well, but I don't believe in miracles. All what you did is to postpone, UNLESS there is a functional vaccine soon.
There are lots of theoretical studies about this postponement phenomenon.
Then, maybe, you will get lucky with an early vaccine.
It is otherwise not possible to keep below 7k infections in a 30 mil population size country.
It opens up, infections would go up.
I understand the partial way-stay open when you can, close when you can't.
It is messy, but around here people already started to ignore orders.
Mask coverage dipped lately to 20% from 60% on the residential street, although we are still under "orders" to keep them on when outside.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

[edited out - distasteful recommendation] ... or less painful way: rebuy at ~$5-6-7k and become a millionaire within the next 12-24 months.

You really think that we are going to reach sub $7k prices?

are you suggesting that mindrust should set buy orders at three different levels?  $5k, $6k and $7k?

Its not a bad idea though..

I do have couple of buy order at lower levels, can wait 5-6 months. Who knows if we get to see another flash sale, anything is possible. if not then who cares.

For sure, I think that it is a good idea to have some buy orders set up, yet I was asking serveria what he was recommending that mindrust does - but at the same time, probably my main point was that mindrust does not seem very receptive to any kind of plan that would cause him to get stocked up on BTC in any kind of short period of time.

Of course, when it comes to the strategies of many of us who are already into BTC, and if we have already been into BTC for any amount of time that even approaches mindrust's quantity of time in BTC (he registered on the forum in late 2013, but he was saying that he made a lot of mistakes in earlier years, so he was refining his BTC strategy in either 2017 and/or 2018), then we have been planning and employing our strategy for a while, and we have likely tweaked our strategy and perhaps even made some mistakes along the way, too. 

So, yeah, even if some of us might have gotten into BTC as later bloomers (let's say late 2017 or even 2018, which I think might be your story, JSRAW), we have at least had some time to establish some BTC base.

Furthermore, we may have largely been able to get to a kind of minimum threshold level of comfort with our BTC holdings in order that we are not likely to FOMO when the BTC price goes shooting up (assuming at some point in the next couple of years BTC has pretty decent odds of shooting up). 

But anyhow, even if some of us might consider that we want to really be prepared for up, personally, I still consider it to be a great plan to have some amount of money prepared for all the way down to $3k, and yeah, there may be some people who do not even feel that they want to plan for BTC prices below $5k or $6k, and that is fine too... so long as the BTC accumulating person has some kind of thought through (and likely personally tailored) plan about how they want to treat their dollar reservoirs versus BTC stash and also considering cashflow that might come available with the passage of time (yeah, maybe some of us have been having some drying up of some of our future cashflow expectations.. or at least uncertainties regarding some sources that previously had been thought about as more assured).

Anyhow, combination of DCA, buying on dips and HODL should be considered in such a way that accounts for those kinds of $5k to $6k possibilities and perhaps even lower, even if, currently, we might consider those lower price points to be somewhat less likely.

[Arriemoller]

Liechtenstein had a total lockdown and their deaths were only 2905 from COVID. So obviously total lockdown is the way to go considering the number of deaths is lower.

Yes, I suppose 2905 out of 38,000 is a whole lot less than 3220 out of 10,000,000.
Seen any good movies lately?

You are not good at detecting irony, are you.

[JayJuanGee]

Woah... Any news??

bitcoin is dead

Mining death spiral, started early.. but instead of a mining death spiral, it is a BTC price death spiral.

Tried to buy some, coinbase says bitcoin not supported, lol. More shenanigans. Off to another exchange.

I had some buy orders in around the $9000 mark on Kraken.
Seems I could have gotten them a lot cheaper!
Still, must not grumble as for a while, I thought I had missed the train.

Registration date = December 15, 2013.

In other words, you have had 6.5 years to accumulate some corns.  

[JayJuanGee]

Would be lovely to think this is washing out the leveraged longs before a mega pump

Sadly I think that is wishful thinking

Hard to take you seriously, these days hairy.

Remember back in the good ole days when you said that $9,485 was "a gift"?



 

I´m about to puke..

We dont deserve this 2 days before halving..

hahahaha

of course, we deserve this.  

When Vegeta?

Good point.

[HairyMaclairy]

Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.  

OTOH, surrender your liberties and you also surrender to tyranny.

Incidentally, I don't doubt your rather rational conclusions about the effect of what you term 'opening early', as far as epidemiology goes. I just don't agree that the government of a free society has a legitimate authority to order the populace to stay in their cages.

As far as the effect upon Bitcoin, I'm not seeing such a causative factor.

At the risk of hubris, Australia is on the edge of eliminating the virus.  We have 10% of the population of the USA and 97 deaths total.  Our death rate is roughly one-thousandth yours.  

The only difference is that our leaders (despite their other faults) listened to the medical advice.  Within 2 months we should, fingers crossed, have a completely open and fully functional economy with no virus behind our sealed borders.  Many other European countries will also be in the same position.  

Meanwhile the US will lurch from crisis to crisis over the next six months, with hundreds of thousands and possibly millions dead.   You can keep your liberties.  

On Bitcoin, I suggest it is only a 50% chance that it will trigger another significant crash.  It is really hard to tie the real economy to Bitcoin, and question the extent we should try

I wish your country well, but I don't believe in miracles. All what you did is to postpone, UNLESS there is a functional vaccine soon.
There are lots of theoretical studies about this postponement phenomenon.
Then, maybe, you will get lucky with an early vaccine.
It is otherwise not possible to keep below 7k infections in a 30 mil population size country.
It opens up, infections would go up.
I understand the partial way-stay open when you can, close when you can't.
It is messy, but around here people already started to ignore orders.
Mask coverage dipped lately to 20% from 60% on the residential street, although we are still under "orders" to keep them on when outside.

Excluding New South Wales and Victoria, both of which have an active cluster,  not one Australian state recorded a new case yesterday despite very high rates of testing.  State borders are closed.  

Elimination behind sealed borders is a real possibility.  *If* that is achieved, then many would be happy to wait out the pandemic behind sealed borders.  You can postpone it forever if you don’t let it in.  The virus can only come in, if you let it in. 

We do have a problem with NSW lifting its restrictions too early but other States will keep their borders sealed against NSW while they sort themselves out.  

I say this with caution because we could easily screw this up yet.  

[JayJuanGee]

it's annoying. I'm not a bot !

Protip:  You would not want to be.

[HairyMaclairy]

US intelligence agencies are reportedly examining mobile phone data suggesting there could have been an emergency shutdown in October at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

According to a report, obtained by NBC News, there was no mobile phone activity in a high-security part of the Chinese laboratory complex from October 7 to 24. Previously, there had been consistent use of mobile phones.

The report, carried out by private experts, suggested there may have been a "hazardous event", specifically at the institute's National Biosafety Laboratory, between October 6 and 11. Analysis of mobile phone data from around the institute also suggested roadblocks were in place between October 14 and 19.
Experts urged caution, suggesting the report may be based on limited commercially available mobile phone data, and that there could be other reasons for varying levels of phone usage.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/north-america/wuhan-lab-phone-records-show-possible-shutdown-in-october-20200510-p54rid.html

The Wuhan Military Games were on 18 - 29 October.  Some think the first infections of foreigners occurred then.  

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/french-army-returned-wuhan-military-21988912


This might explain the Chinese claim that the US Army brought the virus to Wuhan.  They are setting up the lie. 

[jojo69]

if the fucking retards would just wear their masks we could lick this thing AND open our economies

but people

people

cause

cops

[OutOfMemory]

I am going to post something quite unpopular.  It will make some people mad at me.  This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now.  I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.  

The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response.  The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast.  With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state.  Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days.  In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.  

We have extremely bad economic data.  On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression.  This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen.  So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.

But know this.  By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked.  The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims.  They aren't.  Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back.  Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.  Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy.  Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.  

The consequences are not going to flow immediately.  Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer.  It will be warm out.  People will say that the warm weather killed the virus.  Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time.  Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again.  People will think we are winning.  There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors.  Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.  

But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad.  We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave.  195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918.  There are 328 million people in the US.  The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%.  Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator.  If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America.  If the hospitals collapse, the death toll has the potential to get much higher.  

I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns.  This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.  

What does this mean for Bitcoin?  I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand.  I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November.  The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%.  Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy.  Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders.  People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.  

My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020.  Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage).    So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.  

Good luck and stay safe.  

A. Sweden disagrees
B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe.

Not this again...
Most of these fatalities stay one or two weeks in a hospital, take up quite some resources like ventilators and have to be quarantined in ICUs.
Do you grasp the gravitiy of this?

You are an idiot.
We are doing this right now, right here.
We have doubled our number of ICU beds in less than a month, and we are not using them all, not even close.
Is that so hard for you to grasp?
Or do you just like to be locked up buy your government? you are Austrian after all, you guys love hard disciplin, so history shows us.

Just compare the infection charts of Austria and see who's doing it wrong, in respect to the fact we were a main european covid hub in february. It's even not over yet, and Hairy already pointed out that numbers aren't to be easily compared because of different base variables (number of testings). At least i'm clever enough for an idiot to understand this  

EDIT: The rest of your "argument" is just nonsense based on prejudice.

[JSRAW]

~snip~ 
So, yeah, even if some of us might have gotten into BTC as later bloomers (let's say late 2017 or even 2018, which I think might be your story, JSRAW), we have at least had some time to establish some BTC base.

Aug 2017

[OutOfMemory]

Still on track. You can see the covid impact quite nice on this chart, too.

Now let's zoom in a litte...

[jbreher]

Post this 2020 halvening miners will cease to be the biggest sellers of Bitcoin. It'll be the dawn of the crypto exchange as the leading seller.

The biggest sell pressure on Bitcoin will soon be from exchanges selling their BTC fees collected into fiat.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1258966521071599616?s=21

BUT: When the bitcoin price doubles, and trading volume stays the same, the exchange trading fees selling pressure in bitcoin halves.

Second I think over time there will be pressure on trading fees collected by the exchanges, as mentioned in one of my previous posts. 0.5% and higher is insane and not sustainable in a competitive free market environment.

Use maker taker

If you are not the maker, you are doing it wrong

Does it just mean placing your sell above the price? or something more elaborate?

Thanks

That, or placing your buy below the current market price at time of order entry.

with market price being the lowest ask or LAST trade?
Binance, kraken and Coinbase say that maker is the order that is not immediately executed.

Lowest ask. If you are the maker, you make the market come to you. If you are the taker, you take the current offer.

[JayJuanGee]

~snip~  
So, yeah, even if some of us might have gotten into BTC as later bloomers (let's say late 2017 or even 2018, which I think might be your story, JSRAW), we have at least had some time to establish some BTC base.

Aug 2017

Are you trying to label yourself as a mid rather than a late 2017?


Such self labelling would be arguable, but might be a stretch depending upon whether your "self-proclaimed" entrance in August was early or late.  

[jbreher]

You can keep your liberties.  

Much as I would like to thank you for your magnanimous offer, I'm afraid that my fellow 'merkins -- many of them at least -- would rather cower under a benevolent boot than take responsibility for their own well-being. And accordingly are making an irresistible force determined to throw away their liberties - with mine thrown right out in the process.

As for myself, I'm perfectly capable of limiting my exposure to disease vectors on my own volition.

[lightfoot]

You can keep your liberties.  

Much as I would like to thank you for your magnanimous offer, I'm afraid that my fellow 'merkins -- many of them at least -- would rather cower under a benevolent boot than take responsibility for their own well-being. And accordingly are making an irresistible force determined to throw away their liberties - with mine thrown right out in the process.

As for myself, I'm perfectly capable of limiting my exposure to disease vectors on my own volition.

We'll see. At the moment our loving leader is beginning to realize the limits of his control of reality....

More to the point: Requiring the wearing of masks is like requiring the wearing of pants. Sorry, otherwise you smear your shit everywhere you sit, thus society requires pants. You exhale virus particles and infect others so society requires masks.

[jbreher]

it's annoying. I'm not a bot !

Protip:  You would not want to be.

Speaking from experience?

#justfunninya

[lightfoot]

I live in a nation that can conceptualize and produce this:



Nothing to really fear in the long term.

[aesma]

Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy. 

OTOH, surrender your liberties and you also surrender to tyranny.

Incidentally, I don't doubt your rather rational conclusions about the effect of what you term 'opening early', as far as epidemiology goes. I just don't agree that the government of a free society has a legitimate authority to order the populace to stay in their cages.

As far as the effect upon Bitcoin, I'm not seeing such a causative factor.

At the risk of hubris, Australia is on the edge of eliminating the virus.  We have 10% of the population of the USA and 97 deaths total.  Our death rate is roughly one-thousandth yours. 

The only difference is that our leaders (despite their other faults) listened to the medical advice.  Within 2 months we should, fingers crossed, have a completely open and fully functional economy with no virus behind our sealed borders.  Many other European countries will also be in the same position. 

Meanwhile the US will lurch from crisis to crisis over the next six months, with hundreds of thousands and possibly millions dead.   You can keep your liberties. 

On Bitcoin, I suggest it is only a 50% chance that it will trigger another significant crash.  It is really hard to tie the real economy to Bitcoin, and question the extent we should try

I wish your country well, but I don't believe in miracles. All what you did is to postpone, UNLESS there is a functional vaccine soon.
There are lots of theoretical studies about this postponement phenomenon.
Then, maybe, you will get lucky with an early vaccine.
It is otherwise not possible to keep below 7k infections in a 30 mil population size country.
It opens up, infections would go up.
I understand the partial way-stay open when you can, close when you can't.
It is messy, but around here people already started to ignore orders.
Mask coverage dipped lately to 20% from 60% on the residential street, although we are still under "orders" to keep them on when outside.

The problem is that the places with the most infected persons are still far away from herd immunity, so there is no real advantage gained by having suffered big losses already. And as time passes, even if we don't have a vaccine, we still are better prepared, there are now promising drug combinations, doctors know better how to judge if ventilation is needed, etc. We also know who is most at risk so these people know what to do if they want to survive.