There is already a forum thread on the topic of Microstrategies bitcoin accumulation, including a yesterday post from Ratimov in which he specifically attempted to address the point that Microstrategies buys have been all over the place in the last nearly three years and also linking to a thread in which Ratimov outlines his own theory that it is not good to invest into bitcoin merely based on the behaviors of institutional investors..... and sure, I don't completely agree with Ratimov, even though I appreciate that he makes a lot of good points and outlines the data pretty well.. and hey, you do what you like in terms of timing your own investment into bitcoin strategies.   

I tend to think that it takes a whole fucking lot of time to build an investment portfolio, and there are needs to be careful in regards to trying to take short cuts, but surely making assessments of your own finances is good and then figuring out ways to combine regular DCA and buying on dips is also good... and surely once you have accumulated for 4-10 years or more, there are going to likely be points along the way that you are going to be able to reassess your options.. and likely you would have more options as long as you have been erroring in on the side of ongoing accumulation of BTC and perhaps even somewhat aggressively so long as you had not gone overboard and getting reckt along the way by being too greedy and trying to get rich too quick..

There is no evidence that OP had been able to hold through the dip period, service the loans, not panic through the whole period, and therefore still be in profits, currently.

So I would not presume that he was able to successfully carry out his intended play, merely based on his having had told us that he was going to do it.

There are decent odds that OP ended up getting reckt as fuck.. and that is part of the reason that he has not been providing any updates in the past 10 months or so, and there is even some of his posting evidence to show that he had not been managing his cashflow sufficiently in order to really play out the UPs and then DOWNs of the whole last 10 months and to see the light of day after our BTC price recovery that had largely been happening since late December (early January), but instead, OP may well have had fucked himself in this whole gambling matter and did not have abilities to sufficiently service the loan and to pay his own living expenses during the down period..

And, even his last post on the forum (in late October, right before the BTC crash that related to finding out that FTX didn't have the bitcoins they claimed to have had had), he was asking for a non-collateralized personal loan..

For reference, look at this:



OP did not seem to have had thought the matter through as thoroughly as you suggested Litzki1990.


You (Jatiluhung) seem to be presuming that OP was able to hold through the whole period and service the loan without getting reckt in the process.. I am not going to presume that based on the facts in front of us... and reasonable inferences that can be made from OP's lack of posting (mosty disappearance from the forum) since October.

I am surely not hoping for various aspects of the banking system to fall apart faster than it already is.. and likely it is falling apart way too fast... Those fucks can't even manage their shit properly, and of course, they ongoingly try to figure out ways to get the people to pay for the both the risks that the banks had been taking, and probably it is not even the bankers faults completely either because there were various aspects of the system that contributed to their engaging in irresponsible burdening their systems (maybe referred to as moral hazzards depending on which systems we are talking about incentivizing and bailing out, too?) with revolving debt and not even having reserves.. which was also something that federal mandates allowed them to go from 10% reserve requirements into 0% reserve requirements right around March 2020.. .. lot's of blame to go around and the incentives are screwed up.. which is why we bitcoin.. but at the same time, it seems too painful to witness various traditional financial systems crashing too quickly...even when they are acting like a bunch of dumbass arrogant fucks who really have not deserved so many of their perks and advantaging themselves and their buddies with Cantillon-type dynamics.


Another thing is: How we gonna refer to the nutjob without actually saying the word?

Asking for a friend.


I have a diagnostics "guy" coming in to check out aspectsenings of the various systems to see if some algonenings might need to be tweaked, added or removed. 

It's a journey, not a destination.. just saying.

It's a cute meme.. but those are bears, right? 


I am not sure about the bear "as our WO mascot." 


#justsaying


Oooo....ooooooooo

The "moon" song....

one of my favorites...

You're such a nice guy......



sometimes.




You and nutildah should get together and work on some kind of an NFT.. aka bitcoin inscription.

 

Well.. sorry about your father's health situation and that it might end up drawing you towards cashing out more of your cornz at likely a lower price than what would be preferred.. but surely life does some times get in the way.. in terms of sometimes difficulties to maintain investments for longer terms when shorter-term needs sometimes will compel spending and/or cashing out of cornz for likely inferior investments (possibly forced into housing as an investment.. when maybe other sources of funding might not be securable.. perhaps?  only you can know your specifics.)... 


For sure there is increasing evidence that the vaccinne may well have hurt some people rather than helping them... so not easy to know some of the cause and effect matters when science and even facts and even logic seems to be in an ongoing kind of an attack status.. I am not going to proclaim to know.. except to be sceptical in regards to whether those specific vaccines were helpful, even though other kinds of vaccines may well have been traditionally helpful, these covid vaccines seem to be of a different nature.. and even not well tested, except upon humans as guinea pigs and without even being clear about whether there are objective attempts to really assess the extent of the various side effects..and for sure when we hear about children getting these vaccines, we know that the whole thing is problematic, if not total bullshit.


No... I don't have nuttin..

I don't eat, sleep or exercise..

poor widdo me.

 


it really sucks to be me.

Oh?  Thanks for pointing out that portfolio management section of the article, and the various ways that the author (Tuur Demeester) outlines considering attempts to justify both risks and reasons for choosing bitcoin allocation levels.  He does really flesh out a lot of those kinds of considerations and also he leads off by fleshing out the investment thesis for bitcoin.. and largely proclaiming a stronger fuck shitcoins stance - even though he did not use those exact words, including that the investment thesis for bitcoin is getting stronger and stronger.. and surely unlike @bitebits summary - he did not not proclaim lump sum investing to be superior to the employment of a DCA strategy - though of course, he gives some rationale for each of those strategies and also pointing out that a combination of both may well be individually suitable... including describing some possible tradeoffs that may well come from a variety of levels of investment aggressiveness.....including higher levels of initial allocation than I am wiling to recommend with his up to 50% "early retirement" bet that tends to be more than what I would want to suggest on a general audience approach.. since I leave my own general audience starting out much broader, but still lower with a 1% to 25% range for starting considerations.. and surely he had pointed out that it is likely better that no matter which strategy(ies) that we might end up choosing to employ that we are keeping in mind bitcoin as valuable asset in the long term (and likely increasingly uncorrelated in the long run, even though in correlation and even liquidation risks in the short run.. that likely adds to bitcoin's ongoing likely inevitable short-term volatility).

What is that?

A moonboot for ants?

In udder wurds, "where's dee feets?"


You are too logical.   

Snap out of it, vapourminer!!!!!



The real world no doesn't work like dat.

Well, be careful tabas.

I know that a lot of people get tempted to trade and they also get tempted to try to accelerate their returns based on volatility, including that many of us likely realize that volatility in bitcoin is inevitable, but we still cannot really have any level of confidence in short term volatility, even though we likely can have a decent amount of confidence that if we continue to accumulate bitcoin and not get too risky with our approach and do not fuck around with trying to gamble with our bitcoin, then likely we can continue to build our bitcoin holdings over time, and maybe it could still take 15 to 30 years before we really get to a financially comfortable position (and that is not even guaranteed), and our odds of getting to such financially comfortable position is better if we continue to build our stacks of satoshis.. and then maybe at some point into the future, we will be able to recognize that we have a decent amount of financial cushion and we have largely reached the goals that we have set for ourselves, whether we want to reach a kind of fuck you status or if we merely want to just be better off than we would have had been if we had not invested into bitcoin.

Accordingly, if you measure getting to fuck you status by the amount of annual income that you have built up, then you may well need to get between 20 to 30x the size of how much that you need per year in order to be able to feel comfortable in terms of living off of that amount, and frequently people will get greedy before reaching those levels or maybe not be able to manage their wealth once they have reached a full years of income within their investment portfolio.. so it can take a lot of discipline to continue to pursue and persist and to not lose your principle when you have reached 1x your annual income and in the process of trying to get to a decently high level such as 20x to 30x.. and yeah, I understand that a lot of people do not make it, and yeah, I understand that some people believe that they do not need 20x to 30x, so those kinds of opinions can vary in terms of how much is needed and how to valuate the value of your assets (which ones that you hold - hopefully including but not necessarily limited to bitcoin... and I am not referring to any need to hold shitcoins, even though some folks might choose to hold some shitcoins).

I really have difficulties with the various arguments that relate to "if x had not happened, then bitcoin would have higher levels of adoption than it has now."

It just seems like failures/refusals to accept whatever is, is (or whatever happens, happens)... There are all kinds of factors that affect BTC price, and some of those factors have to do with ongoing and likely inevitable battles and manipulation attempts (whether in the realm of physically pushing the price or whether in the realm of information warfare and whether successful or not).

In some sense, any of us involved in the investment of bitcoin have to be ready, willing and able to deal with the various extremes and irrationalities that comes from being invested in a kind of battle zone investment asset.

I frequently like to assert that the powers that be are going to push bitcoin prices (and even expectations about bitcoin) down as far as they can and keep it down for as long as they can.. until they cannot do it any more, and that's part of the reason that when they lose control of the price, there ends up being various upward explosions.... .. and specifically, I like to give the example of keeping BTC below $500 in 2015/2016... at a certain point, it became impossible to keep the price below $500, but if they could have had kept the price below $500 they would have... those fucks... hahahahaha..


....and they ended up losing that battle for $500 even though it stretched on for well over a year.. maybe even a few years, if you think about it.. they won the battle to keep the BTC price below $500 in 2014 and 2015 and part of 2016.. until they no longer won it., and in some sense there was humor in all of that, so long as you continued to buy BTC, hold BTC and not to get flushed out of your ability to maintain some BTC (or even to build your BTC position during that time), even while, at the same time, there was ongoing and ever-present fear, when you are actually a BTC holder because you do not know if "they" are going to be successful in keeping the BTC price below whatever the price point might be at the time (in the case of 2016.. and even going into 2017 the price point threshold seemed to have had been $500), and in March 2017, there were all kinds of folks scared out of either buying BTC or selling too much BTC too soon or selling what BTC they had because they believed that diptwat Vinny Lingham about BTC prices going back below $500 because that is what the powers that be wanted (and were going to be able to do), and how did that "waiting for $500" work out for those folks in March 2017?  Not so well... especially, if they are still waiting or bitter about having had believed that bullshit.. and did not buy BTC or sold too much of their BTC too soon because they were "expecting a lower price."


Yeah going by your forum registration date tabas, you have had 7 years registered in the forum and perhaps a possibility of having had gotten involved in bitcoin for nearly two full cycles - however, we know that many times, it can take a decent amount of time to build an investment position - unless you are bringing resources from the outside and reallocating some of your investment portfolio into bitcoin.

A brand new investor might take 10 years or more just to build his/her investment portfolio into something in which s/he is starting to feel as if the investment portfolio is starting to become of a substantial size that is meaningful and potentially life changing.


You spend your whole post focusing on the negatives that people think about bitcoin, but so fucking what?  We know a lot of people think negatively about bitcoin, and so if the school is teaching bullshit and dumb topics, and you happen to have a kid, or a relative or even friends who have kids in school, there can be opportunties to ask the kids what they are learning in school and then to ask the kids if they believe that bullshit (if it happens to be bullshit that they are learning)..

There is always going to be a certain amount of bullshit that is taught, and I doubt that we get anywhere by merely proclaiming that everyone believes bullshit and everyone is believing in bullshit, and so when any one of us is interacting in the world, then we can talk about these various topics and to say why we believe some topics are bullshit (such as various ways in which money is used to control people).. and how other topics are more liberating and empowering.. such as bitcoin giving various ways in which people can control, preserve and manage their wealth and for sure none of the systems of disinformation are going to change overnight, but I doubt that we get very far by merely complaining that they exist without figuring out various ways to interact with such systems and continue to spread the word about bitcoin and the importance that everyone - whether kid or adult  - whether rich or poor, whether governmental representative, institutional representative or individual.. learn about bitcoin and to invest into bitcoin in a variety of ways in order that some preparations are being made for the various ways in which the world is going to continue to change in favor of more and more bitcoin allocation, and those people who are ignoring bitcoin or failing/refusing to allocate into bitcoin are going to continue to lose out to bitcoin... so that remains their choice.. and to the extent that any of us is able to interact with people in our lives and to get their attention, we can discuss these matters, and many people are way more receptive to bitcoin than we might believe so long as we continue to be persistent in our own beliefs, and even though it could take some of these people 10, 20 or more years before they finally start to recognize and appreciate the power of king daddy... aka dee cornz.

Too bad that you could not have had figured out a way to write your post while using the term bitcoin therein... especially since this thread pertains to such topic.. aka dee cornz.. aka king daddy, aka honey badger, aka my lil precious...

but hey?  maybe your newbie plunder is not your fault this time?

Maybe "we" (royal, perhaps?) can blame OGNasty for starting uie pooie out in such an ill-conceived direction, in which neither one of you folks seem to have had realized the actual topic of this here thread.   

Yep.. exactly.. there can be some threshold issues that can make differences in regards to whether the amount of work necessary in order to keep a job x kind of a situation going does not seem to be worth the amount of calculated effort as compared with the potential benefit - and while making the various calculations the answer might not be exactly clear.. and even the idea of making the decision to go down the path of  "no x" might not be easy in the sense that there would likely be a preference that down the road (into the future) to not have to consider having to go back to "x" or some kind of "x" variation once "no x" has been chosen.


Yep.. you might still be able to plan for a variety of winding down scenarios, and perhaps even have some preferred scenarios (perhaps preference of going cold-turkey scenarios) - while expecting that there could be circumstances in which the less preferred scenarios could end up playing out.. and surely the less preferred scenarios would still be within the realm of acceptable paths (especially since you had already prepared for a variety of scenarios, even less preferred scenarios).


For now, and through out various historical posts of mine, I have likely given enough details of my job x versus job y, yet it may be worth saying that prior to my giving up job x in 2013, I had largely already been doing some variation of job y..   

Job x related way more to a kind of traditional JOB of working for someone else - even though there was a lot of professional discretion contained therein, and even lucrative and interesting side projects and professional opportunities, and job y had a lot more self-direction in the sense of having a side business and working with a business partner, some contractors, venders, clients and customers.

So maybe even job y had a certain kind of existence during the period of time in which I still was carrying out job x, and then job y ended up evolving into more work by me after my having given up job x, but then into 2014 and 2015, job y evolved in some ways that I had not exactly anticipated (and likely part of the reason that job y evolved in some of the more involvement by me directions was related to my no longer having job x (or variations of job x) occupying my time and energies), so in some sense after job x is no longer in the picture, job y ends up having several kinds of branches (and perhaps even some complications and difficult choices) in which some of those were sub choices that evolved were not completely voluntary.. but surely involving partner disputes and then various ways to negotiate and/or to force certain kinds of resolutions..

And, even if there might be some ways in which winding down could be described as being attempted even while the business was still operating, there may be ways of also considering whether there were ways in which the business might be sustainable rather than winding down, but surely clearer and clearer resolutions about the need to wind down rather than sustain.. especially getting into 2017 and then decisions to proactively take proactive, concrete and not reversible winding down measures in 2018/2019.. .

For sure, aspects of Bitcoin were involved all around my various kinds of jobs, activities, incomes, benefits, and attempts to weigh various kinds of financial (and security structures) that I had in place in late 2013.. while at the same time that I was first considering various kinds of ways to supplement my already existing investments in late 2013 that would relate to my no longer having the perks of job x.. but then to still maintain some kind of supplemental investments that brought bitcoin onto my radar, into relevance and even into seemingly a good potential fit for me and my then circumstances in terms of filling in what I considered to be some holes of my own various investment portfolio allocations.

So, even from my amorphous rendition of issues that may well have played out for me between late 2013 (when I first got into bitcoin) and then continuing largely to invest and accumulate BTC between 2014 and 2016 (perhaps still believing that I was accumulating a wee bit into 2017 too) and then also BTC price performance during that time, you might be able to identify how bitcoin may have played some roles for me in terms of how I thought about my job y or various struggles (and juggling) that I may have been experiencing in going through various balances in relation to job y, when bitcoin also continued to be an ongoing personal and side investment for me that continued to provide me with more security on the side (that was not really intertwined in any kind of a meaningful way with job y).. and even how bitcoin's then price performance over more than one whole cycle.. and even bordering on then two cycles assisted me in weighing about how much value (or not) is coming from my staying involved in variations of job y.

hahahahha
I realize while typing my relatively short rendition that I probably did not even answer you in ways that you would have had preferred.. but why do I care?   

Yep..

Nervousness about being able to calculate value of your cornz.. .

Understandable...


understandable..


Many of us were quite shaken by the BTC price going below the 200-week moving average for such a long period of time (9-months-ish) while at the same time, even with current prices, we are ONLY a wee bit above the 200-week moving average.. even though the 200-week moving average continues to inch UPpity.. little by little but still moving north.

So then the question may continue about both how much is enough, and are we again subjected to possible dips below the 200-week moving average and will our own evaluations (of our own circumstances) be able to handle such dips below, if they were to occur in the short term.. but if they might happen in the longer term (such as 2 years or more down the road, then at that point presumptively the 200-week moving average would have had moved up to high enough points that it may well not matter so much if the then current (spot) price might end up moving below it, eve if we might have similar kinds of results as we did in this last DOWNity period (which had gotten as low as 35% below the 200-week moving average.. fuck.... )

I suppose in the end, no one can really answer for you, in terms of how much of a cushion that you may well feel to be enough to pull that fuck you lever, and surely no one should feel that they have to unpull such lever once they pull it, even if they still might choose to perform various kinds of income producing work that would mostly be (in theory) voluntary types of contracts.


I don't necessarily consider my route to have had been completely voluntary, and certain directions sometimes can end up having some forcing elements to them   - but for me, I feel a lot of matters worked out quite well, but there were various choices along the way that do not really seem to have had been completely voluntary.. and then some aspects of the direction have both luck and preparation that end up contributing towards decisions in which threshold matters can be decided regarding whether enough is enough.. and how much of this job versus another kind of job or another kind of job is necessary in terms of bringing in income or even making certain kinds of financial and psychological preparations.

I remember in about mid-to-late 2013 disclosing to one of my then work colleagues that when I reassess my financials with lesser income, there are ways to project out the income that I expected to have under one path versus another path and the outcome of those two paths do not really seem to show very much financial differences between working in job x that has higher income or working in job y that has lesser income, but way more freedoms... and for me, I likely would not have had time to spend so much looking into bitcoin were it not for me having had chosen to go into job y rather than staying in job x...... .. and largely my nestegg in job x had mostly had been established (even though another few more years seemed as if it would have had been preferable - since there were perks, and status, and even seeming opportunities and connections - but in the end, circumstances were not going to make such an option of sticking with job x to be worth it for my whole situation.. in regards to what I was willing, ready or able to do)..... and so there was a certain level of tearing and even seeming less prestige and benefits with job y.. even with way more freedoms.. 

In the end, going down the bitcoin road that may have also come about by giving up on job x (and spending more time on bitcoin-focused kinds of time-allocations) did end up causing both financial and psychological circumstances that way surpassed in surplus value compared to what I had projected my path to have had been nearly 10 years ago when these kinds of weighing of options of staying in job x or some variation of job x were being deliberated by yours truly.

Maybe I am suggesting that there can be some ways in which all of the "i"s do not necessarily need to be dotted, and not all of the "t"s need to be crossed in order to still end up being in a position in which you could still be ready to cross into a new kind of era in which there are fewer traditional "work-related" obligations.. and a path can be gone down in which fewer and fewer "work-related" obligations are filling up your days.... and so I had quite a few "work-related" obligations that I severed in 2013.. but also even more "work-related" obligations that I severed in 2018/2019... and sure, I still do have some things that I do that I label as work-related obligations, even though some people in my life have tried to suggest that I don't have to do them... but I still do dedicate some time to certain kinds of activities that I consider to be "work-related" obligations.. even though they are way more self-directed than many of the obligations that I severed in 2013 and in 2018/2019.

Ok... Fair enough.   

Since we are in a public thread, sometimes there are needs to attempt to verify these matters and also to clarify.

One thing that I will point out (and highlight)...

Historically, some members have become somewhat obsessed with ideas that they need to preserve their KYC and to earn their bitcoin and a lot of that kind of bullshit that ends up causing them to fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately stack enough cornz in the event that BTC prices might happen to end up going up.

Each of us needs to strive to figure out how much of my lil precious we believe to be enough to adequately/sufficiently prepare us for UP in accordance with our own circumstances, and in the event that up ends up happening.


Yep.. there is a lot of seemingly short-sightedness out there, when it comes to how to deal with accumulating and/or maintaining some kind of a meaningful position in dee cornz.

I can excuse folks somewhat in terms of their inclinations to get a bit anxious, but at the same time, there should be a certain amount of understanding that bitcoin's investment thesis has been growing stronger and stronger the longer that bitcoin has continued to exist.. and even though in late 2013, I was having some trepidations regarding whether a 2-year investment timeline might be acceptable, in the past 6 years or so, I have come to understand and appreciate that a 4-10 year investment timeline is actually acceptable.   So there should be some abilities for folks to wrap their heads around having a longer investment timeline when it comes to bitcoin, including something like 4-10 years or longer -- and if it happens to be that they are getting too damned anxious over volatility that is happening over shorter time horizons, then they likely should be able to get over some of their anxiety by lowering their exposure and finding an allocation amount that sufficiently satisfies a balancing of their concerns about volatility as well as their concerns about how much to invest in order to be able to possibly profit from UP, in the event that UP ends up happening.

I am not going to proclaim that the balancing is easy.. but it does seem to be possible to figure out whether there is comfort with $100 per week or $10 per week or some other amount might bring more comfort, and then perhaps thereafter, setting it and forgetting it and perhaps looking at it every quarter or two in order to consider if the amount should be adjusted upwards or downwards or whatever in accordance with ongoing assessments of the variables within personal financial and psychological circumstances.

Call me a pussy if you must, but what is wrong with striving to have some plug and play reliability, even if it might be a side unit that is just always running (or mostly running and like you said maybe ONLY just running only one node that is used from time to time to verify personal transactions rather than trying to provide any kinds of services to others or to learn about various aspects of the whole lightning network?).. and in that regard, what's wrong with running an old laptop, or even spending a bit on some system such as Embassy in order to attempt to achieve more user-friendliness and power..   I don't claim to know much, but I heard that the various raspiblitz and some of those cheap set ups are likely way under powered and causing some of their issues based on being underpowered... and sure maybe if you pick some systems that are somewhat already intended as user-friendly and paying more, then you might be giving up a bit in regards to how much to be able to customize them, too.. but who needs to have problems with equipment failures that end up taking a lot of time and frustration?  

Don't get me wrong, I am a bit of a tinkerer myself, so I do actually enjoy some of those moments in which I am able to successfully set something up or figure something out, even if it may have taken me a few days and an expert would have gotten it done in less than an hour..  and so I can understand and appreciate some of the value in terms of both troubleshooting and then actually accomplishing the tasks, too.. ..

I don't claim to know shit in regards to the actual topic of interfacing with technical aspects of the nodes, and some of your various descriptions of trade-offs, and I ONLY recently started running bitcoin core 24.01 on a couple of macs.. but I hardly know what the fuck is actually happening beyond having 600 gigabytes or something like that, less space available on the harddrives.. .hahahahaha, even though at the same time, I am thinking that I am moving in the right direction to maybe later be able to verify my transactions through such nodes and thereafter considering that running some kind of a regular node then facilitates the ability for me to possibly expand into having a lightning node on each of the computers too.. ..and yeah, many of us Mac users don't really know much about terminal windows.. and we may well even get scared if we see a terminal window and have to type some kind of a command.. so many of us may well rely somewhat on plug and play expectations and/or other ways in which the hopefully user-friendly GUI software is screened and reviewed by others, and since you already know some of the various ways to play around with the software (through terminal interface), then you have some of the luxuries of both worlds, no?

Isn't this supposed to be a user-friendly thread?  #askingforafriend

I doubt that the evolution of systems are as clean as you seem to be suggesting them to be DaNNy001.  Sure there is likely evolution in systems and frequently there are systems that are overlapping one another and even difficulties to be able to figure out which system is better, so people make choices regarding how much of their own value they are going to put in each of the systems that exist, and whether it is potentially to their benefit to either place value in new systems or to retain value in already existing systems.

As individuals our lives are finite, and we cannot be waiting around for new systems to take over, and there may well be set backs along the way, so we continuously will be needing to determine how to allocate our resources, in order that we might feel that we are making decisions that are better for ourselves and maybe even accepting that we may well make some mistakes too.. in terms of how much to allocate or how to allocate.

For example, it could take anywhere between 50 years and 250 years or maybe even more for bitcoin to really become embedded as a reserve system.. and sure some people consider that it could take ONLY 20years, or that our current system may well come crashing down at any minute, and so in those cases, we may well want to be mostly allocated in the new system rather than the old system, and for myself, I would not feel comfortable overly allocating into "the new system" if the odds of such a calamitous crash is not very likely.. and not even as close to as likely as a lot of the dooms-dayers want to proclaim, yet at the same time, none of us would necessarily be hurt if we might end up ONLY allocating 10% into the new system rather than 100% - even if such a calamitous outcome were to end up playing out.


For sure you are right about these matters thecodebear, and one of the things that I frequently tell these dumbass bitcoin naysayers (bitcoin deniers; fence sitters) is that it is way the fuck better to just put a small amount of their wealth into bitcoin, such as 1% of their investment portfolio rather than for them to continue to sit on their hands and end up doing nothing.. so in the longer run, yeah maybe bitcoin does not end up going up and in that sense they have ONLY allocated 1% to it.. but at the same time, they may well falsely conclude that pro-bitcoin folks (such as many of us longer term forum members) are trying to sell them something, and many of us could give less than two shits about whether they get into bitcoin or not, and it is merely to their advantage to get some kind of stake in bitcoin rather than to ongoingly (and likely wrongly) presume that bitcoin has reached its peak.. there is no more profit potential.. there is a lot of downside risk and blah blah blah nonsense failures /refusals to invest any energy into looking into it further and/or putting some kind of financial, psychological and/or time stake into it... so yeah, in that regard, they end up getting into bitcoin at the price that they deserve, even if the BTC price ends up being way higher than $1 million before they start to realize that it (bitcoin) is not going away, and it (bitcoin) happens to be more of a thing than they had (likely wrongly) presumed it to be.


You are not wrong, Kakmakr.. .but still there is something wrong with your framing.

There are a lot of outlets to spread information these days; however, large financially backed institutions (including media institutions) remain scared of bitcoin and even scared of decentralization and even scared of what various aspects of decentralization represents, so in some sense there is a kind of battle in terms of the ability to spread the news (whether true or otherwise) - which also happens to be tied in with finances and government, and surely news and information (and truth) should be products of the people - yet it is likely that various news sources have been based on various kinds of centralized control of information (and money) in that they end up perceiving bitcoin and non-centralized forms (forces) of information to be threats that they have to battle through whatever means that they perceive might be able to preserve the various status quo arrangements... Even some of the adventurous news entities have troubles to actually attempt to describe bitcoin for what it really is and for what it really represents, and from time to time we do get some of the individuals and institutions to be breaking out with pieces of information that are factually and logically accurate rather than misleading.. but then there could be backlash that ends up coming from the information that comes out in such ways that we continuously have both lies and truth being spread at the same time and various kinds of internal and external battles to try to figure out what it is that people want.. and trying to figure out is bitcoin good or not good, and do the various spokespersons actually know the difference between bitcoin and shitcoins when they are trying to represent what is happening in light of what has already happened, where we are currently and where we might be going with these various matters that also include scams (in the space) and a large number of legitimate purposes too.. and which parts of the news happens to be more interesting.. the scams or the legitimate purposes, and do they feel comfortable to talk about the various legitimate purposes without potentially subjecting their news organization to a law suit or even prosecution for promoting tax evasion and money laundering?..   

Actual peer to peer  that is backed up by computing power that is located all over the world (including being embraced by some possible enemies) brings a lot of power to individuals (good guys and bad guys), and ain't nobody gots time for that, right?   

What you want, and what king daddy gonna do may well be two different stories.

In udder wurds:

Best to prepare for a variety of scenarios rather than getting worked up whether the price might go up or down in the short term, when it is a 50/50 call at best in the best of circumstances, and currently there is not really any way to expect "down before up" or that the correction that we just had is all of the correction that you are going to get.

In udder wurds:

Too bad you sold too many coins too soon, you expecting down that might not happen, and maybe, in order to commensurate, join forces with Philip and hope that he may well have sold more than you did and even at lower prices that you did.


 

Shouldn't be selling coins when we are largely at historically low prices, and if you do sell some, it is better NOT to be expecting the price to go down because you may or may not be able to buy them back cheaper or even at the price in which you sold them, whatever that might have had been.

New bie who doesn't know how to read.

 

Even if you are able to use various search functions and/or you have potential access to "good" information as opposed to "bad" information, there are still needs to employ critical thinking in order to attempt to figure out what is good information and what is bad information.  

The development of good critical thinking skills does not come easily, and many times people might believe that they are employing good critical thinking skills merely because they are skeptical of the views of others, but still NOT necessarily easy to figure out why some information is better than others, and why some sources of information are better (and more credible) than others.  Are the sources showing their work and showing actual facts, or are the sources merely giving conclusions and you are supposed to agree with certain sources because the conclusions sound "right."

Many times bad information will be presented in very persuasive kinds of ways to make it seem as if it is good information when it is not.  It is not easy, and frequently a lot  of uneducated people still will come to the wrong conclusions, and it can take a while (including maybe that their friends start to tell them that the information that they had been believing and/or relying upon was actually wrong).


I doubt that there is any need to accept such labels and/or characterizations in order to continue to press on with potentially steadforth ongoing pro-bitcoin messages, even if there might be some need to acknowledge that some folks will perceive bitcoiners as nuts, but that remains their own issues rather than the fact that there is any kind of need to accept such framing.. even if there are plenty of others who believe such nonsense.

My approach continues to emphasize that almost everyone needs to get the fuck off of zero, even if they might choose to allocate in fairly whimpy ways.. and again that is on them in terms of their level of allocation into bitcoin psychologically, how much they study it and/or financially...

Also having a 4-10 year or even a longer investment timeline should help to demonstrate that bitcoin remains a long, rather than a short play, and even some acknowledgement that there may well be a decent amount of negative BTC price performance in shorter term periods and even in the long term there is no guarantees, so each person needs to decide for himself/herself the amount to invest and the ways to invest, even though I surely do not mind to give some suggestions, such as saying that there starting out at $100 per week might be good, but if there are some inabilities to afford $100 per week, then perhaps $10 or some other amount that might be affordable, and also the person may need to get their financial shit together (and their psychology) in order to even be in a position to invest into bitcoin or into anything else, part of the problem with a large number of folks is that they are not even in a position to invest into anything because they are unable to live within their means and/or to adequately handle their psychology and/or their finances.. so many times the bitcoiners would not be the clowns, to the extent to which they are exercising reasonableness and prudence in their own approach to bitcoin and sure, no problems with being somewhat aggressive in terms of investing into bitcoin, but there are also needs NOT to either overdo it or to gamble or to get yourself into any kind of pickle because you are too busy having fun and too much acting the role of a clown rather than someone who is attempting prudent, practical and reasonable investment approaches that may well be of a kind of 4-10 year time horizon, and surely it may well be an investment timeline that is much longer than that - such as in the neighborhood of 20-30 years.. since building an investment portfolio can take a long-ass time, even when the investment seems to be such a good one.. such as bitcoin.... or even somewhat bitcoin dominant.. and yeah some people come to bitcoin who have already built an investment portfolio, so they are largely just diversifying into bitcoin rather than starting from nothing.. so there can be variations of status that could cause they movement from accumulation status to maintenance status and or to liquidation status to be shorter for some folks who might be starting out with larger quantities of wealth (and/or a larger investment portfolio).

In some sense the lies suppress the BTC price, and so those of us who can see through the lies are advantaged, in the sense that we have asymmetric information and so if we continue to buy BTC, then it seems that sooner or later, the abilities to fight the actual truth of bitcoin are going to end up resulting in BTC price rises beyond expectations.. while in the meantime, and in the shorter run, the BTC price could still end up being suppressed for years, and years and years, and maybe even suppressed for decades.. so in that sense, to continue to take into account what is actually happening, how much BTC are we individually accumulating and what remain our strategies to continue to build our bitcoin education and our bitcoin portfolio without overdoing it and without getting discouraged by the ongoing misinformation campaigns (aka lies) that exist in the world?

Well what if a green candle comes prior to a red candle?.. even something like $40k or $55k prior to some kind of potentially severe crashening.

In other words, suggesting that down before up is highly-likely is ONLY half of the formula, and in regards, to the 2019 pattern, we are not in 2019, so the dynamics are different - which does not necessarily rule out more UP before DOWN..

Even if you look at the 2019 upwards price movement, the BTC price moved up right around 3.5x between April and June (From about $4,200 to $13,880) - and then pretty much gave up most of that gain for a short time prior to moving back up.. (but of course there was the lil March 2020 blip in there, too)... so in one sense the amount of UP in 2019 had caused the BTC price to come within about 30% of its December 2017 ATH of $19,666.... and so if some kind of similar principle were to apply to the amount of UP (or retracement of the earlier price growth), then we can see that 30% of $69k brings us right around $50k.. and even with all of that, it likely is a fools errand to expect too much preciseness in any kinds of price patterns - while at the same time recognizing that price dynamics in bitcoin are still not so different from 2019 in order to appreciate that those kinds of price moves (or that degree of price movement) is not really completely removed from the realm of reasonable and/or plausible scenarios..

......even while at the same time being careful in regards to how likely we believe any of that to be in terms of overly assigning that the BTC price might move in one direction or another merely because you feel as if it might move in a certain direction.. and hopefully at the same time (on a personal level) to have yourself financially and psychologically prepared for either outcome... and how you do that has been beaten to death in these here parts... which means that you have ONLY have yourself to blame if you overly prepare in one direction and then some variation of the opposite ends up happening.

By the way, bitcoin prices do not even need to reach new ATH in the next year or two in order to continue to profit from the likely ongoing asymmetric bet nature of bitcoin, and surely we do not have any guarantees about where BTC prices will go or how long it might take for BTC prices to get to some level in which we are feeling that we are profiting relatively on a personal basis.. and likely at minimum, a lot of us merely want to be able to have investments in which our odds are pretty decent that the value that we invest will hold its value and even better if the value that we invest can slightly out perform other kinds of investment opportunities that might be available to us.

Where are we going to put our value?  There are no guarantees in any place, so then it seems to remain a question of how much to put in which of the various places that are options available to us.  The more wealth that we are able to build, then the more likely that we are going to have more options, yet ever since the invention/discovery of bitcoin, there has been price performance that has beaten other options - even though of course, no guarantees that such ongoing outperformance is going to continue, while at the same time, there is no real evidence that bitcoin has become a less preferable (rather than a more preferable) investment in the past 14 years.. and even in the past 2-4 years... likely more obvious to some folks since March of 2020 that various aspects of Bitcoin's investment thesis has been growing stronger rather than either staying the same or getting any weaker.