the cheap ASIC will be distributed all around the world. it will be very decentralized.
Exactly this. Thousands of people are going to be running them. Sure, it won't be every person in the world like it can be now (with using GPU's), but everyone will certainly have a chance to purchase one. |
|
|
|
this is why we need asic mining rigs, cheap asic mining rigs.
Yes, definitely part of the reason. The other part being, preventing a malicious entity from developing their own ASIC and taking over the network because no one else has them. |
|
|
|
I agree. But do they have access to said supercomputer? And even if they did, it's only 1/4 of the estimated hashing power it is implied that they somehow have access to. |
|
|
|
Oooh, here's more: CSCS' main function is a so-called National User Lab. It is open to all Swiss researchers and their collaborators, who can get free access to CSCS' supercomputers in a competitive scientific evaluation process. In addition, the centre operates dedicated computing facilities for specific research projects and national mandates, e.g. weather forecasting. It is the national competence centre for high-performance computing and serves as a technology platform for Swiss research in computational science. [3]. CSCS is an autonomous unit of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH Zurich) and closely collaborates with the local University of Lugano (USI). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_National_Supercomputing_CentreAccording to that wiki page, it looks like that university has 604.52 teraflops of supercomputing power available to them. For free for research purposes. EDIT: Sorry, I'll stop double-posting. Found this: Bitcoin "FLOPS" computation on bitcoinwatch bitcoinwatch.com/ calculates PFLOPS of bitcoin network as: take number of Hashes/second (Terahashes/s of SHA256) and multiply by 12700 to get a "Single-precision FLOPS estimate". One hash calculation is considered as 6350 32-bit integer operations, and each integer operation is considered equal to two single-precision flops. Source of constants is: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=4689.0 (with reference to bincoinwatch's admin). Actual bitcoin mining contains no (or almost no) floating-point calculations. So, going backwards, 604 / 12,700 = 0.475. In other words, their 604 TFPS of supercomputers could only mine 48 GH/s, far lower than the numbers we are actually seeing would imply. |
|
|
|
Found the answer to my own question... July 2, 2010 - Made in IBM Labs: IBM Hot Water-Cooled Supercomputer Goes Live at ETH Zurich http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/32049.wss" In total, the system achieves a performance of six Teraflops** and has an energy efficiency of about 450 megaflops per watt. " 6 teraflops doesn't sound like much to me. Are they really getting 2 TH/s out of 6 TFPS, or is that not possible? |
|
|
|
|
So they have around 9% network hashing power...
How massive of a supercomputer would they have to use to get 2 TH/s? And does anyone know if they HAVE a supercomputer at that university?
|
|
|
|
|
Have you tried generating some base25 hashes and entering them?
|
|
|
|
Bitfloor's web site is having gateway timeout errors now. Repeat attack? Seems similar to the symptoms last time. I'm going to pull out my BTC immediately if it comes back up, just to be safe. I had the opportunity to do that last time, but I didn't. If this actually is a second attack and it's successful, I'm finished with Bitfloor.
Interestingly, the Bitfloor API still appears to be functioning.
To be clear, this appears to be happening upon attempted login. |
|
|
|
That assumption will be wrong 50% of the time...
Yes! I forgot the change position randomization! But still it's generally possible to guess which output is the change, since : 1. The payment amount is always greater than the sum of inputs amounts, with the exception of the input amount of lesser value. 3. The change amount is always smaller than any of the inputs. The only case where this guessing fails is when there is a single input amount. In this case, generally the payment amount is an integer value, and the change is not, so you still can guess with some accuracy. Best regards Pieter! I'm glad someone finally is doing analysis based on these assumptions! No, they aren't exact, but they would be generally pretty close. I am excited to see what you come up with.  Are you planning to contribute your blkdat parser back to bitcoinj? It sounds useful!
I believe your assumptions are still incorrect:
1) You cannot assume anything about the size of a change address, nothing says it has to be smaller than the payment and often it won't be
2) You cannot assume payments are round numbers as often they will have been converted through an exchange rate. For instance many payments I make look like essentially random numbers because they are some round figure of my local currency multiplied by the exchange rate at the time.
Block chain analysis is hard, I doubt there is an accurate way to calculate what you want.
He did say "guess". And this is certainly a good way to get it right a vast majority of the time. |
|
|
|
It'd be great if someone could host this on the web, maybe charging a small fee for each lookup or something.
Mmmh, not really : this is designed to run a full linear sweep of the entire blockchain for every query ... that's truly heavy duty (both raw I/O and CPU). The moment 5 users hit the web site at the same time, the server will basically die. The way blockchain.info does it is the right approach for what you describe: they dump the blockchain into a DB with a crapload of pre-computed indices and update said DB incrementally to keep the queryable version up to date. I guess I just don't like blockchain.info's way of displaying the data it finds. Maybe I need to get used to it more. Regardless, jobs could be queued, and the resource-intensiveness is why I suggested a small fee for each lookup. There are those of us who do not know linux well enough to run something like what you have created here, but would still like it to be accessible.  |
|
|
|
|
It'd be great if someone could host this on the web, maybe charging a small fee for each lookup or something.
|
|
|
|
So uh, if you get some asics going now. You're good for the next 8 years
Don't believe that for a second. The current round of ASICs are good for maybe 1 year. 2 years tops. By then newer, faster, cheaper, more efficient ASICs will be available, making these 1st gen ASICs just as obsolete as the latest FPGAs will soon be. A couple things you are missing in your quick analysis: 1) New ASICs will come out, and they will be more efficient. But they will NOT make current ASICs "just as obsolete" as the latest FPGAs will soon be. The jump in efficiency between FPGAs and ASICs is projected to be along the lines of going from 100MH/watt to 1,000MH/watt - about a 10x increase in efficiency. The jump in efficiency between current-gen ASICs and future-gen ASICs will be wholly due to decreased process size, and would likely see no more than a 45% increase in efficiency over the course of a year, if Moore's law is to be believed. 2) Your statement also assumes that mining income will stabilize to the point where revenues = no more than 200% of the variable costs, if they would be obsolete by a 100% increase in efficiency over the course of two years. The volatility of the price of Bitcoin (and thus, the profits from mining) makes such an assumption completely unreliable. |
|
|
|
Except I'll be the one laughing when my ASIC farm makes more money in 5 days than you've made in 5 months. You won't make much of anything if everyone else with an ASIC also decides to dump. ...except for maybe a good price for me to buy at. I'm not too worried about that. If the price takes a dive, I'm holding until it stabilizes again. |
|
|
|
They can make like 500 units per day, these will run a 24-hour burn-in test, so they will be constantly mining with 500 pcs of jalapenos/40Ghs/1TH machines. At 400X3.5G+80X40G+20X1TH..... 1400k+3200k+20000k=24600k Mh/s=$106,863.96 a day??  Check my calculation please, someone? I'd drop that figure to about 1/5. No way they're building 20 minirigs a day. But even assuming they are, compare the price of those (assumed) hardware pieces compared to the mining revenue. 400 x $150 + 80 x $1300 + 20 x $30000 = $764,000 selling price. So, even if they make $107k/day mining, it still wouldn't make up a substantial portion of their revenues. And that $107k wouldn't last long either - as more of the units are released into the wild, that revenue would drop to maybe $10k/day, if that. I'm not particularly happy that BFL is choosing to mine on the main net, but I'm not going to cancel my order over it either. |
|
|
|
|
Pool income is something I hadn't thought about before eleuthria - thanks for bringing that up.
|
|
|
|
I think a 5830 probably has best roi. pretty easy to get 285mh/sec out of them, with free electric thats $35 a month.
But at 100W, that's $10 a month in electricity. That's only $25 a month profit now. Those things draw 200w. Horribly inefficient cards. LTC has been around for almost a year. It's not dead and it's probably not going to die. Like BTC, the algorithm is self adjusting so that it remains profitable to mine. The naysayers are welcome to sit around in a circlejerk waiting to profit from nonexisting ASICs they bought six months ago while I continually make money with a GPU farm.
Except I'll be the one laughing when my ASIC farm makes more money in 5 days than you've made in 5 month. |
|
|
|
|
I'll still be mining... not on GPU's though.
|
|
|
|
If you guys had any idea how much you should have paid for all this OP has posted so far... I think it's great of you to offer this advice, and do it basically free. But I don't really understand why you bother, since you cannot even redeem the goodwill, since you will have to stay anonymous since you are not allowed to give this advice here as an attorney.... Anyways, carry on! I know... that's why I at least sent a tip his way! Honestly, it'd be great to have a lawyer who was quite familiar with Bitcoins, and would be willing to defend/prosecute Bitcoin-related cases in court. Not sure if that's something you're interested in Nolo, but "specializes in Bitcoin-related cases" might be a great thing to add to your or your employer's website. |
|
|
|
Pretty sure 'passed' is correct.
Pretty sure it's not. Yes, it is a word. No, it is not the right word in this context. |
|
|
|
|
My next question then, is would this be something better done via betsofbitco.in? People can create bets to help hedge their investments, and the market itself sets the risk rate simply via the agree/disagree ratio.
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
