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First, Cointerra is MUCH cheaper at about $3/GH/s. That's a factor of more than 3!
HashFast second batch is cheaper too at $8.75/GH/s and they are supposed to deliver in November!
To be fair, you cant just compare hardware cost with a hosted solution. Put that cointerra in a datacenter with electrcity/cooling/monitoring/redudant everything included for a year, and you end up paying a lot more than $3/GH/year too. |
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Right, Bitfury isn't endgame. It's just the best that's currently available. Better stuff will come along.
But we have the numbers for hashfast, allowing decent calculation for production cost and power effiency . Those specs may or may not be representative of other 28nm designs, but closer than bitfurry at least. Anyway, no disagreement we will blast past 54PH:  |
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Growth rate is going to continue to skyrocket until the cost of electricity becomes significant.
Bitfury, 400 GH/s at 300 watts.
Current Difficulty = 112628548 roughly 1 PH/s
Daily income = $223
Daily electricity at $.10/kwh = $.72
Difficulty at roughly 54 PH/s
Daily income = $4.13
Daily electricity at $.10/kwh = $.72
Even at 54 PH/s, electricity costs are only 17% for a lot of miners. That's still a profit of $100/mo, so reasonably prices ASICs will still sell at that difficulty. ASIC prices are going to keep plummeting, and the network is going to blow past 54 PH/s. Easily.
Your reasoning is sound, except I am not sure bitfury's could still be produced at a reasonable margin that corresponds to a market price in a 50+PH network. Miners may still want to increase their hashrate, but bitfury wouldnt be able to sell them cheap enough (unless miners would get a multi year investment horizon). Instead, I used hashfast's chip to calculate the endgame. Spreadsheet can be found here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=295270.msg3165331#msg3165331Depending on electricity cost and other assumptions, you will end up somewhere between 80 and 800PH. |
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To keep stable income from BTC mining - one should buy new devices every month (and $/GH ratio will drop a lot in future to keep buyers, so amount of bought devices per month will grow). Does anybody want to have hundreds of devices in his room, and maintain all this stuff? Nope. Its much easier to buy mining contact -
Thats a spectacularly stupid reason to buy mining hardware... (or lease hashrate). "to keep mining income stable". Really? Any sane person would invest in mining equipment if/when if he sees an opportunity for it to be most likely profitable, but apparently if your profitability goes out of the window, your solution is constantly doubling down ? That will end well! For BFL that is, they will soon sell out that datacenter. |
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These 80% increases month on month are not sustainable. Indeed, it will likely be (much) more than 80% before it begins to taper, and when that begins, it wont really matter anymore, either you made your profit or you never will. We're seeing a lot of hash soon, so that makes sense, but by the time we get into 2014, it's going to ease. LOL. Its only going to get started in 2014. Even if KnC delivers on their promise, thats only a few PH. Nothing compared to whats coming next year. Many older miners will become unprofitable and get switched off. Yeah, all of 0.5 PH? You wont even notice that, just like no one noticed when CPUs got switched off, or GPUs, and perhaps FPGA; And because you're talking about a compounding of hash every month, you would need to ship almost double the amount of miners month on month. So that's like saying everyone will ship 10,000 miners in October, 20,000 in November, 40,000 in December, 80,000 in January, 160,000 in February... The mining market can't sustain that.
So how did it manage to do it so far? With basically only 3 or so companies selling asics, 2 of which that may as well be operating from a garden shed (no offense to the skills and devotion of the people in question). Soon we will have a dozen of providers. Besides, the point is not so much if it will double each month, its were its headed in the short and medium term. 20PH have already been sold and are promised before february. IT doesnt really matter if they get shipped according to an exponential or linear curve. What matter is that/if they will ship. If it can, the value of Bitcoin is going to skyrocket as people convert a ton of cash to buy these miners. Nonsense. Sellers are just as likely to convert that back to cash. Last time I checked, TSMC didnt accept bitcoins. So a lot of these purchases are going to do better than this long term forecasts predict (Although there is always risk) Remains to be seen. All will depend how fast the best of these asic providers are able to assemble and ship mining rigs. Because that is exactly how fast difficulty will rise and keep rising until we approach 100PH. Price and difficulty are just a result of that execution. |
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Seems to me to be the first truly reliably ASIC rig manufacturer.
Spoken like a BFL customer in 2010 after seeing a picture of their first FPGA, roughly a year or so before actually receiving one (at a lower hashrate and almost 5x or so the promised power consumption, even though both metrics were deemed conservative and likely to be exceeded), or one thats still waiting after what, 8? 12? months after seeing a die shot of BFLs asic. BFL was bad, but they didnt really have competition back then, even a 6 months delay wasnt really a drama. So a hint: dont go spending all that KnC mining profit just yet. Pictures of chips = good, but not exactly a guarantee it will be hashing at your place a few weeks later and most definitely not that its a "truly reliable manufacturer" (to be clear, Im not claiming the opposite either, we just dont know shit yet). |
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How can BFL sell something which is obviously not even close to profitable? (BTC wise)
Hmm.. why would they sell this if they thought it would be profitable? |
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And a whole load of legal regulations (read troubles) along with it. Some people prefer bitcoin exactly because how cumbersome these 'regulations' might be. T
Sure, but the beauty of bitcoin is that no one forces it on you. Dont need it, then dont use it, but when buying $25K worth of mining hardware from a shady company, I wouldnt mind some cumber |
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how can this shit be legal  I dont think it is. The refusal to refund at least: The Rule, issued in 1975, requires that marketers who solicit buyers to order merchandise through mail or telephone must have a reasonable basis to expect that they can ship ordered merchandise within the time frame they advertise, or, if no time frame is specified, within 30 days. The Rule also requires that, when a seller cannot ship within the promised time, the seller must obtain the buyer’s consent to a delay in shipping or refund payment for the unshipped merchandise.http://ftc.gov/opa/2011/10/mailorderrule.shtm |
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Thing is you would need a trusted third party/arbiter. A company like paypal is ideally suited for that. Bitcoin isnt about to render that obsolete, quite the contrary. Ive always seen bitcoin and paypal as natural allies. Just think of what paypal could bring to bitcoin; merchant services, wallet services, currency exchange, banking integration, conflict resolution/consumer protection, .. Bitcoin is an opportunity for paypal and vice versa. sooner or later PP will see that too and either acquire bitpay or bury it real fast. |
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So much for BFL's claims to never to mine for profit with their own hardware (unless anyone is silly enough to believe they will keep those asics ready and boxed until someone orders the hash rate).
Kinda predictable, first you sell asics for a huge markup (+screw your customers by not delivering for a year), then you screw them again by self mining, thereby competing with your customers but with vastly cheaper hardware.
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I'm surprices this thread doesn't get more attention. Im not. Most miners right now are only looking forward for the next 3-6 months or so. Thats the time during which they will either earn, or more likely, lose a lot of money. As long as you are buying asics at $3-$30/GH it doesnt really matter if the network will top out at 50 or 500PH 24 months later. All that really matters is the next few months. This speadsheet offers no help predicting that. However, I would love to understand it better.
Can you pls hit me up on skype to explain it?
Why dont you just ask your questions here? Im more than willing to explain anything thats not clear, but the idea of a forum is that its public so everyone can chime in and/or benefit. What part are you struggling with? |
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. Also, that means, the bitcoin becomes the new driving force for the semiconductor industry, Ahm, no, not really. I guess my 1000 wafer per day starts at TSMC might have been too conservative as estimate: For 28nm alone, the foundries had a total capacity of 200,000 wafer starts per month (wspm) by the end of 2012, according to Barclays Capital. In 2013, the foundries are expected to add an additional capacity of 75,000 to 100,000 wspm for 28nm, according to Mike Splinter, chairman and chief executive of Applied Materials. http://semimd.com/blog/tag/28nm/My reckoning, bitcoin will account for not much more and possibly much less than 1000 wafers in 2014, on a capacity of almost 4 million wafers. Not gonna make a lot of headlines in silicon processing magazines. |
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[funny pic]
I dont think anyone sane questioned there would be chips, not after reading the press release by orsoc. I still question their ability to turn untested trays of chips in to shipping miners in just 2 weeks time (but I have that same question about all the other asic's too, so its still looking good for KNC customers) |
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By parts I meant the ASIC's mainly.
A 65nm wafer wouldnt cost much more than $2000 at the fab. Add some margin if they are going through intermediaries. A single 300mm wafer would yield over 1000 potential asics. Subtract yield and you get somewhere between $2.5-$5 per die in wafer cost, maybe a few dollar in packaging and handling etc.. really, those fans may cost more. Its all peanuts compared to keeping up a charade and paying their employees if they really were nearly bankrupt; dont forgot they are not generating any meaningful revenue right now. If they were somehow headed for any kind of financial trouble, they would have closed shop a long time ago. I do agree there's always been some level of oversight/management failure. You couldn't fail this hard if you planned on it without some special skills. No disagreement there. |
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They also should be rolling in the dough, but if that were the case, why are they having issues receiving parts when the parts are plentiful in the wild and other distributors are having no problems? At the same time, they're pumping folks for cash, and all deliverables have slowed to a crawl. The cost of their non asic components is so laughably low compared to their revenue stream, money being tight is not a credible explanation. if they cant pay for the solder, capacitors, fans and PCBs, why on earth would they keep trying? Just close shop, its not like a lot of money is still flowing in from their 65nm asics. Nah, its either utter incompetence or carelessness (literally "who cares") or a combination of both. |
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They were stopped longer than that.. prior to Saturday, they were dead in the water for 2 weeks. Now they've stopped again. When I brought it up, they deleted my posts. When I mentioned how the BBB is investigating them, they deleted my thread. They're deleting other folks' comments about the situation also. Sounds like they're running in deep financial issues right now honestly. They're having frequent work stoppages, won't tell folks why.. they put out a massive call to preorder the Monarch which they haven't even got in the foundry yet (sounds like a cash pump doesn't it?), they had strict guidelines for GB's of the Monarch at first but recently tossed those rules to the wind (desperation).
Yeah, short of either some miraculous plan which they're trying to keep under wraps until the last second (two weeks), it's likely they're headed toward the brick wall of default/bankruptcy. They've gone from sounding like a scam to visible flags of extreme financial failure. Wouldn't be the first time either, with the folks they have leading the company having been involved in previous crowd-funded failures.
On the upside, I liked the aesthetics of their designs. Maybe one day I'll get one for dirt cheap on ebay when they aren't worth anything. Would be a great coffee table piece.
I dont buy the "BFL going broke" thing. Really, they should have enough money in the bank to buy Manhattan. Well, at least a building there 65nm asics arent that expensive to develop, even with their monumental screw ups, Id be surprised they burned more than a few million dollar on that, money they would have had at hand from their FPGAs. Production of asics is even cheaper, these chips essentially cost nothing a piece, PCBs, cases etc dont add up to all that much either when compared to their retail prices. Margins on those miners is phenomenal. Now lets have a look at just how much money they made. Going by this alone: http://bfl.ptz.ro/Im too lazy to look up historical prices, so Im just going by todays equivalent prices in dollar (they took shitloads of bitcoins, that if they didnt sell them all immediately, would have made a small fortune too): 3575 Jalapeno x 275 = $983,125 1230 Little single x 1300? = $1,599,000 2678 single x 2500 = $6,695,000 185 minirig x 22500 = $4,162,500 total in 65nm asics alone: $13,439,625 Now thats a very incomplete tally, it amounts to 7668 devices, where Josh claims BFL already shipped over 10K asic devices, which cant be more than 1/3 of their backorder as they are still only shipping october 2012 orders. If you believe Josh's claim their real sales could easily be ~4-5x higher. Even if you dont believe a word Josh says, the real revenue is going to be a lot higher than this estimate. I just cant see how they could possibly have burnt through that kind of money. If you wonder why they behave cocky as hell with zero respect for their customers, well, believe me, its not because they are on the verge of bankruptcy. |
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No, PayPal doesn't like Bitcoin because it has the potential to make them obsolete.
As the BFL saga demonstrates, clearly there is a need for a service like paypal. Perhaps it could be done with bitcoin instead of dollars or euro's, but ask BFL customers how they feel about bitcoins irreversible transactions now. |
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