Has BFL found a new way to screw over it's customers, I'll let you be the judge.

[creativex]

These 80% increases month on month are not sustainable.  We're seeing a lot of hash soon, so that makes sense, but by the time we get into 2014, it's going to ease.  Many older miners will become unprofitable and get switched off.  And because you're talking about a compounding of hash every month, you would need to ship almost double the amount of miners month on month.  So that's like saying everyone will ship 10,000 miners in October, 20,000 in November, 40,000 in December, 80,000 in January, 160,000 in February...  The mining market can't sustain that.  If it can, the value of Bitcoin is going to skyrocket as people convert a ton of cash to buy these miners. 

So a lot of these purchases are going to do better than this long term forecasts predict (Although there is always risk)

Not to say BFL is a wise choice to invest in.  There is no value in putting your cash into this until its online and you know what your ROI will really be at the time you make a purchase.  Same with any other service or offering.  Since BFL has a no refund policy, you take a greater risk on losing your money completely than other vendors.

While I agree that these increases are unsustainable long term, opaque and dishonest vendors such as bfl taking pre-order funds on the backs of people's ignorance will ensure that this mess can continue longer than it otherwise would. People are just now figuring out what a horrendous decision pre-ordering hardware months in advance is. Naturally Hashfast, CoinTerra, knc, etc...already have petahashes of paid gear in the pipeline. Dumb money will ensure that everyone in mining takes a haircut before rationality becomes more widespread.

[PuertoLibre]

These 80% increases month on month are not sustainable.  We're seeing a lot of hash soon, so that makes sense, but by the time we get into 2014, it's going to ease.  Many older miners will become unprofitable and get switched off.  And because you're talking about a compounding of hash every month, you would need to ship almost double the amount of miners month on month.  So that's like saying everyone will ship 10,000 miners in October, 20,000 in November, 40,000 in December, 80,000 in January, 160,000 in February...  The mining market can't sustain that.  If it can, the value of Bitcoin is going to skyrocket as people convert a ton of cash to buy these miners.  

So a lot of these purchases are going to do better than this long term forecasts predict (Although there is always risk)

Not to say BFL is a wise choice to invest in.  There is no value in putting your cash into this until its online and you know what your ROI will really be at the time you make a purchase.  Same with any other service or offering.  Since BFL has a no refund policy, you take a greater risk on losing your money completely than other vendors.  

With 28nm...

Need I say more?

Gen 1 ==> 300Mh/s to 2.4 Gh/s (per chip)
Gen 2 ==> 300Gh/s to 600 Gh/s (per chip)

Notice anything about the jump in each mining machines hashing power??

[bcp19]

Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.

[Puppet]

These 80% increases month on month are not sustainable.  

Indeed, it will likely be (much) more than 80% before it begins to taper, and when that begins, it wont really matter anymore, either you made your profit or you never will.

We're seeing a lot of hash soon, so that makes sense, but by the time we get into 2014, it's going to ease.  

LOL. Its only going to get started in 2014. Even if KnC delivers on their promise, thats only a few PH. Nothing compared to whats coming next year.

Many older miners will become unprofitable and get switched off.

Yeah, all of 0.5 PH? You wont even notice that, just like no one noticed when CPUs got switched off, or GPUs, and perhaps FPGA;

And because you're talking about a compounding of hash every month, you would need to ship almost double the amount of miners month on month.  So that's like saying everyone will ship 10,000 miners in October, 20,000 in November, 40,000 in December, 80,000 in January, 160,000 in February...  The mining market can't sustain that.  

So how did it manage to do it so far? With basically only 3 or so companies selling asics, 2 of which that may as well be operating from a garden shed (no offense to the skills and devotion of the people in question).  Soon we will have a dozen of providers. Besides, the point is not so much if it will double each month, its were its headed in the short and medium term. 20PH have already been sold and are promised before february. IT doesnt really matter if they get shipped according to an exponential or linear curve. What matter is that/if they will ship.

If it can, the value of Bitcoin is going to skyrocket as people convert a ton of cash to buy these miners.  

Nonsense. Sellers are just as likely to convert that back to cash. Last time I checked, TSMC didnt accept bitcoins.

So a lot of these purchases are going to do better than this long term forecasts predict (Although there is always risk)

Remains to be seen.  All will depend how fast the best of these asic providers are able to assemble and ship mining rigs. Because that is exactly how fast difficulty will rise and keep rising until we approach 100PH. Price and difficulty are just a result of that execution.

[Morblias]

Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.

There is a difference. AM ships right away and the customer knows exactly what he will be making at the time he buys the item. BFL didn't ship for over a year. How the hell can customers estimate their ROI on something that will not ship a year down the road?

[PuertoLibre]

PuertoLibre, I would modify that gif to be 10 days per change, not 14.

BFL can not be trusted to meet the demanding challenges of time to market.  But they will still get more suckers I'm sure.  Their production ability is piss poor but their marketing and advertising is ace.

With a 10 Day Period.

With a 10 day period of change....wow the Hosting Package 1Th/s....the income pretty much flatlines at around Early February.

Yikes...

(An understatement)

How can BFL sell something which is obviously not even close to profitable? (BTC wise)

They could fix this by making the hosting contract only 1 month long max, or 14 days. They would have to substantially change things around to make it viable.

You probably don't realize that by May 16 2014 you have difficulty up over 6 billion.  We'd only need something like 54 Petahash to reach that and the total of all estimated preorders today only comes to around 10-14PH.  At that difficulty, anything that cost over $.50 per GH would be unprofitable long term by your table.  But hey, it's not intended to be accurate, it's just BFL you're causing FUD to after all.

I am saying exactly that.

I don't agree with putting a 10 day interval. But someone requested it...because that is what it is in actual reality. (I know bcp19, you don't like reality)

And ultimately, yes, I totally agree with your statement. Anything above 50cents per GH/s is not a long term investment.

Sorry, to be the alarm clock, but it is time to wake up. Hash Fast (one example) is already offering miners at $3.50-ish per Gh/s.

BFL is offering the Monarch at about double that.
---------------------------

So don't look so surprised when I actually agree with your statement my friend. .50cents should be close to what a long term invester in BTC is looking for.

[bcp19]

Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.

There is a difference. AM ships right away and the customer knows exactly what he will be making at the time he buys the item. BFL didn't ship for over a year. How the hell can customers estimate their ROI on something that will not ship a year down the road?

So the hosting center isn't going into operation for a year?  I must have missed that. 

[PuertoLibre]

Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.

I am no hypocrite at the very least.

I have always complained and pointed it out. Doesn't matter who it is, it is wrong. My story, nor my stance has changed. I continue to think the same.

[Morblias]

Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.

There is a difference. AM ships right away and the customer knows exactly what he will be making at the time he buys the item. BFL didn't ship for over a year. How the hell can customers estimate their ROI on something that will not ship a year down the road?

So the hosting center isn't going into operation for a year?  I must have missed that.  

You must have missed them shipping their ASICs in October of 2012 also. Honest Abe.

But yeah, at this point if anyone ordered $10/gh shipping in February, the customer is an idiot.

[PuertoLibre]

Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.

There is a difference. AM ships right away and the customer knows exactly what he will be making at the time he buys the item. BFL didn't ship for over a year. How the hell can customers estimate their ROI on something that will not ship a year down the road?

So the hosting center isn't going into operation for a year?  I must have missed that.  

You must have missed them shipping their ASICs in October of 2012 also. Honest Abe.

But yeah, at this point if anyone ordered $10/gh shipping in February, the customer is an idiot.

Totally agreed.

[bcp19]

PuertoLibre, I would modify that gif to be 10 days per change, not 14.

BFL can not be trusted to meet the demanding challenges of time to market.  But they will still get more suckers I'm sure.  Their production ability is piss poor but their marketing and advertising is ace.

With a 10 Day Period.

With a 10 day period of change....wow the Hosting Package 1Th/s....the income pretty much flatlines at around Early February.

Yikes...

(An understatement)

How can BFL sell something which is obviously not even close to profitable? (BTC wise)

They could fix this by making the hosting contract only 1 month long max, or 14 days. They would have to substantially change things around to make it viable.

You probably don't realize that by May 16 2014 you have difficulty up over 6 billion.  We'd only need something like 54 Petahash to reach that and the total of all estimated preorders today only comes to around 10-14PH.  At that difficulty, anything that cost over $.50 per GH would be unprofitable long term by your table.  But hey, it's not intended to be accurate, it's just BFL you're causing FUD to after all.

I am saying exactly that.

I don't agree with putting a 10 day interval. But someone requested it...because that is what it is in actual reality. (I know bcp19, you don't like reality)

And ultimately, yes, I totally agree with your statement. Anything above 50cents per GH/s is not a long term investment.

Sorry, to be the alarm clock, but it is time to wake up. Hash Fast (one example) is already offering miners at $3.50-ish per Gh/s.

BFL is offering the Monarch at about double that.
---------------------------

So don't look so surprised when I actually agree with your statement my friend. .50cents should be close to what a long term invester in BTC is looking for.

Why should I be surprised that you and I can come to the same conclusions on the same data concerning difficulty and $/hashrate?  I've told several people that the current market is not good for investing in mining equipment.  I knew it wasn't a good investment when I ordered my Jalapeno, but I'm not in this for quick cash, I'm investing in the future.  This is what the 'invest in BTC not equipment' people don't understand.  I've earned not quite 3BTC from my mining efforts over the last 4 motnhs.  I've invested some and played with the market and overall I did well since I am now "worth" well over 10BTC.  Here's the rub though... the BTC I mined is 'play money'.  I don't really care if I win or lose with my investments, so I am a little bolder with them.  If I would have spent cash to get those BTC, I would have never taken half of the investments I did, cause it would have lost the play money aspect of it.  This is why buying equipment is more palatable to me than buying BTC.  My monthly expenses don't change much and I don't have to worry every second of the day whether I am gaining or losing money.

[PuertoLibre]

KNC photo's of their first 28nm chips.

So, um, KnC has their new 28mn chip. FUD FUD FUD!



http://forum.kncminer.com/forum/main-category/hardware/2545-kncminer-28nm-die-photos-hot-of-the-press-from-our-packaging-assembly-house

How long can BFL hold out before slashing prices? (Only time will tell)

[PaperClip]

Hosting contract equipment comes from our bulk production of Monarch cards so contracts will begin to be served in the January / February 2014 time frame.

$10.83/GH for something starting in either January or February? LOL!

I ran the numbers and these look as good as a dead donkey.

Actually this is lowest $/GH ratio available on ASIC market (excluding other BFL cards). Next one is KNCminer Jupeter with 12,48 $/GH (with preorder for November delivery). If BFL will activate this service even on February - these options are sort of the same by profitability.

BFL is very good at marketing and have great vision of future. Their delivery totally sucks, though. But everything is already foreseen by them.

Soon difficulty will skyrocket with cosmic rates. To keep stable income from BTC mining - one should buy new devices every month (and $/GH ratio will drop a lot in future to keep buyers, so amount of bought devices per month will grow). Does anybody want to have hundreds of devices in his room, and maintain all this stuff? Nope. Its much easier to buy mining contact - pay money and receive mining power instantly, without shipping and device setup and etc.. Plus, this is better for ASIC producer too - they do not need to process all these orders with shipping and packing. Just receive chips from manufacture, assemble on board, plug board into server rack.
Soon ASIC producing companies will start to switch to this contract delivery model. They must be stupid to leave this opportunity. And BFL does this now not because they have technology, but just to establish themselves as general provider of such service. Real result will be provided by them in two weeks after publicly announced date .
Its just their work model - promise thing that will be demanded in future, collect invests, promise, deliver when its not relevant anymore.
It looks totally promising, just don't invest anything until you will see that this service is online.

[Morblias]

Hosting contract equipment comes from our bulk production of Monarch cards so contracts will begin to be served in the January / February 2014 time frame.

$10.83/GH for something starting in either January or February? LOL!

I ran the numbers and these look as good as a dead donkey.

Actually this is lowest $/GH ratio available on ASIC market (excluding other BFL cards). Next one is KNCminer Jupeter with 17,48 $/GH (with preorder for November delivery). If BFL will activate this service even on February - this option is still much profitable than KNC.

BFL is very good at marketing and have great vision of future. Their delivery totally sucks, though. But everything is already foreseen by them.

Soon difficulty will skyrocket with cosmic rates. To keep stable income from BTC mining - one should buy new devices every month (and $/GH ratio will drop a lot in future to keep buyers, so amount of bought devices per month will grow). Does anybody want to have hundreds of devices in his room, and maintain all this stuff? Nope. Its much easier to buy mining contact - pay money and receive mining power instantly, without shipping and device setup and etc.. Plus, this is better for ASIC producer too - they do not need to process all these orders with shipping and packing. Just receive chips from manufacture, assemble on board, plug board into server rack.
Soon ASIC producing companies will start to switch to this contract delivery model. They must be stupid to leave this opportunity. And BFL does this now not because they have technology, but just to establish themselves as general provider of such service. Real result will be provided by them in two weeks after publicly announced date .
Its just their work model - promise thing that will be demanded in future, collect invests, promise, deliver when its not relevant anymore.
It looks totally promising, just don't invest anything until you will see that this service is online.

http://cointerra.com/ $3/gh shipping January

[PuertoLibre]

Hosting contract equipment comes from our bulk production of Monarch cards so contracts will begin to be served in the January / February 2014 time frame.

$10.83/GH for something starting in either January or February? LOL!

I ran the numbers and these look as good as a dead donkey.

Actually this is lowest $/GH ratio available on ASIC market (excluding other BFL cards). Next one is KNCminer Jupeter with 17,48 $/GH (with preorder for November delivery). If BFL will activate this service even on February - this option is still much profitable than KNC.

BFL is very good at marketing and have great vision of future. Their delivery totally sucks, though. But everything is already foreseen by them.

Soon difficulty will skyrocket with cosmic rates. To keep stable income from BTC mining - one should buy new devices every month (and $/GH ratio will drop a lot in future to keep buyers, so amount of bought devices per month will grow). Does anybody want to have hundreds of devices in his room, and maintain all this stuff? Nope. Its much easier to buy mining contact - pay money and receive mining power instantly, without shipping and device setup and etc.. Plus, this is better for ASIC producer too - they do not need to process all these orders with shipping and packing. Just receive chips from manufacture, assemble on board, plug board into server rack.
Soon ASIC producing companies will start to switch to this contract delivery model. They must be stupid to leave this opportunity. And BFL does this now not because they have technology, but just to establish themselves as general provider of such service. Real result will be provided by them in two weeks after publicly announced date .
Its just their work model - promise thing that will be demanded in future, collect invests, promise, deliver when its not relevant anymore.
It looks totally promising, just don't invest anything until you will see that this service is online.

http://cointerra.com/ $3/gh shipping January

And the march towards 50 cent per Gh/s has started....

Makes you realize that BFL just took a dump in front of their customers and called it "liquid gold"...

[Syke]

You probably don't realize that by May 16 2014 you have difficulty up over 6 billion.  We'd only need something like 54 Petahash to reach that and the total of all estimated preorders today only comes to around 10-14PH.  At that difficulty, anything that cost over $.50 per GH would be unprofitable long term by your table.  But hey, it's not intended to be accurate, it's just BFL you're causing FUD to after all.

Growth rate is going to continue to skyrocket until the cost of electricity becomes significant.

Bitfury, 400 GH/s at 300 watts.

Current Difficulty = 112628548 roughly 1 PH/s
Daily income  = $223
Daily electricity at $.10/kwh = $.72

Difficulty at roughly 54 PH/s
Daily income  = $4.13
Daily electricity at $.10/kwh = $.72

Even at 54 PH/s, electricity costs are only 17% for a lot of miners. That's still a profit of $100/mo, so reasonably prices ASICs will still sell at that difficulty. ASIC prices are going to keep plummeting, and the network is going to blow past 54 PH/s. Easily.

[Puppet]

To keep stable income from BTC mining - one should buy new devices every month (and $/GH ratio will drop a lot in future to keep buyers, so amount of bought devices per month will grow). Does anybody want to have hundreds of devices in his room, and maintain all this stuff? Nope. Its much easier to buy mining contact -

Thats a spectacularly stupid reason to buy mining hardware... (or lease hashrate). "to keep mining income stable". Really?
Any sane person would invest in mining equipment if/when if he sees an opportunity for it to be most likely profitable,  but apparently if your profitability goes out of the window, your solution is constantly doubling down ?
That will end well!
For BFL that is, they will soon sell out that datacenter.

[bcp19]

Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.

I am no hypocrite at the very least.

I have always complained and pointed it out. Doesn't matter who it is, it is wrong. My story, nor my stance has changed. I continue to think the same.

True, but most of the people in here who pooh poohed me for pointing out AM was fleecing people are now screaming BFL is fleecing people.  That my friend IS a hypocrite.

[Syke]

True, but most of the people in here who pooh poohed me for pointing out AM was fleecing people are now screaming BFL is fleecing people.  That my friend IS a hypocrite.

Asicminer is fleecing people with honesty.
BFL is fleecing people with dishonesty.

Subtle but significant difference.

[bcp19]

True, but most of the people in here who pooh poohed me for pointing out AM was fleecing people are now screaming BFL is fleecing people.  That my friend IS a hypocrite.

Asicminer is fleecing people with honesty.
BFL is fleecing people with dishonesty.

Subtle but significant difference.

That is called perception, you still have not shown proof.