LFC...Well deserved, congrats.
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I like the fact that PTB are focusing on @barstoolpresidente instead of btc right now. It looks like that at least some of them are setting Dave to be crushed as he is challenging the WS fees. On the other hand, people like him can get the stock market party going, which is also in PTB interest. Mixed feelings from them, I think.
Btc is not 'hot" at the moment and I kind of like it. If it doubles every year (on average) instead of popping X20 one year, then declining 80% next, it would be peachy from my perspective.
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TMC numbers for COVID are spiking (Harris county, Houston area). The darned thing is probably mutating to adjust to higher temps as we were above 90F (32C) for a while already with high humidity. No bueno... pardon my [very limited] spanish.
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Interesting thoughts about whether we would keep human form or evolve into a "connectome". https://www.wsj.com/articles/looking-forward-to-the-end-of-humanity-11592625661 [could be a paywall, but not for me] During the months of lockdown, a sharp division emerged between people who work with information—images, words, numbers—and people who work with objects—shelving groceries, delivering packages, nursing the sick. The former can shelter in place and communicate through screens, but the latter have to venture out into the physical world, putting themselves at risk of infection... ...As technology makes it possible to escape more of the burdens and dangers of physical existence, this class and professional divide could deepen into an existential one, with a virtual elite being served by an embodied working class....
2030-2040ish...sitting on a balcony in a citadel's loft...powering up Ryzen 700...activating avatars...checking night's account activities...the day's work is done. Profit re-invested in more assets. Sent connectome 239/EAG beam to the Mars colony to see how it could venture there. Eloi, meet Morlock. Yeah. Not a particularly novel idea. Oh well. Really? It has almost nothing to do with the products of H.G. Wells ideation. If anything, it resembles Greg Egan's writings with a sprinkling of "Altered Carbon"
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Interesting thoughts about whether we would keep human form or evolve into a "connectome". https://www.wsj.com/articles/looking-forward-to-the-end-of-humanity-11592625661 [could be a paywall, but not for me] During the months of lockdown, a sharp division emerged between people who work with information—images, words, numbers—and people who work with objects—shelving groceries, delivering packages, nursing the sick. The former can shelter in place and communicate through screens, but the latter have to venture out into the physical world, putting themselves at risk of infection... ...As technology makes it possible to escape more of the burdens and dangers of physical existence, this class and professional divide could deepen into an existential one, with a virtual elite being served by an embodied working class....
2030-2040ish...sitting on a balcony in a citadel's loft...powering up Ryzen 700...activating avatars...checking night's account activities...the day's work is done. Profit re-invested in more assets. Sent connectome 239/EAG beam to the Mars colony to see how it could venture there.
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Stop saying “My Nigga” or I’m going to kneel on your neck for 9 minutes. LOL
If you do, will the whole world start rioting & stealing shit because of my demise? Probably not ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) LOL yeah, me either. If someone kneeled on my neck they would probably win a free meal at Denny’s and a six pack of Budweiser. hahahahaha True dat. You had not been too appreciated in the forum in recent times (last year or so), but at least you have not been banned, so far. How are you feeling in regards to bitcoin? I recall that sometimes you can go through some unreasonably bearish and even worldly pessimistic phases, hopefully you have not sold too many of your satoshis in anticipation for summer shopping or some other out of touch world perspective? ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) ** **Please note that I am largely attempting to razz you and stir your pot a bit, QuestionAuthority, because I had not seen you around in these parts very much recently, so I don't mean any ill-will.. that's for sure, and would not mind getting some kind of on-the-ground QA updates from you (as a BTC OG), even if there might be some variance in our perspectives.. Doesn't hurt to have some variance from time to time.. and maybe some of us might be able to welcome you back by get pissed off at you.. for asserting that you are cashing out a decent percentage of your BTC for early Christmas shopping or some nonsense like that. ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) I’m still a bitcoin purist and this place is mostly for shitcoins now. WO? Hardly...and not even true for bitcointalk as a whole. Somewhat true for the WHOLE space if you lump btc and alts together.
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Don't call me a party poop, you fucks.. but here goes: I am not clear regarding how much of his investment portfolio he decided to put into bitcoin, and at his age, I am not even sure if he can confidentally assert that he has a 5-year investment horizon. So I would have a hard time recommending even my common asserted range of 1% to 10%, because with such a likely short investment horizon, he should not be considered as really investing, but instead gambling on the shorter term, and of course, he could end up being correct... but I don't really agree with gambling, especially for 83 year olds... so just given the fact that his investment time horizon is likely only 2 years, I would recommend 1% to 3% for the average 83 year old, and maybe only a higher portion if he really could afford to lose the whole amount invested because he is otherwise way more wealthy than he can even expect to spend, then if that is the case, then maybe he could go above the 3% range - and surely, he would be in a better position to understand his situation than me, but I am just responding to the general idea of an 83 year old and based on that picture he does not necessarily look like he has any kind of genetic gift or perhaps luck that would allow him to have an investment timeline that is greater than a couple of years, at best. A recent study has shown that people over 72 under-perform the market (and the rest of fellow investors). This perfectly explains Buffett's lack of performance for the last 15 years or so. He did great in the previous 40-45, hence people still bought BRK-A. They would have been better off buying "spiders" (SP500). So, yes, 1-3% sounds about right for a 83 year old-just to hedge against a small probability of a $ calamity. OT: sorry, @LFC, Mbappe to Liverpool is a pipe dream.
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Good discussion... When you feel burned out, it most definitely means that something has to change. I am only 9 years into my second career cycle. So far so good, but who knows how long that feeling would last. Having bitcoin as a 'hobby' certainly helped as it makes things interesting, especially when I had to learn a thing or two about it. One point regarding drawn-downs: I cannot imagine myself stopping accumulation and starting a strict draw-down. I think this would make me feeling empty and/or exposed. Spending from IRA just does not feel right and I am not even talking about selling btc for spending. It would be difficult to overcome the hodling philosophy. @jbreher and @JJG were [having a] discussion spending $92K from a $2.3mil account as an exercise, 4% yearly and all... That's all peachy, unless either $ value significantly declines or, alternatively, market would not appreciate for, say, 20-30 years. Then, all money is gone in 25 years, someone is a 90 year old man (if you start at 65) in relative poverty (if social programs collapse or become highly insufficient). I tend to believe that 4% is hogwash and recent events show that we don't know what to expect down the pike. It is probably wise to have some residence paid out by 65; at least take this part of the equation out. Regarding yearly withdraws: 3% sounds much more realistic, at least I use this number for calculations. You can use your BTC stash as collateral for a 5% interest rate personal loan - borrow $10,000 with $40,000 of BTC Celsius.network
I've earned interest with them for a year now, a good business.
Interestingly, blockchain.com (the one that used to be blockchain.info) says that it would pay YOU 4.5% on btc in their custody account. Not sure whether it is in btc or in fiat. Seems to be a better deal, not sure what conditions are, though.
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Did you know Anne Boleyn, the Queen of England from 1533 to 1536 was a Bitcoin advocate. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ibb.co%2F6H6Sjw6%2Funtitled.jpg&t=663&c=KYTaldXUly1fdw) yea, her husband got mad at her bitcoin advocacy...it did not end well.
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having one or two million in silicon valley might just make you comfortable
I take it you've never been to (e.g.) Palo Alto? I have been there. O.k. Let me see if I can attempt to 'splain my assertion to you. There are a lot of people who don't have shit in regards to investments or savings (even if we account for home ownership, too), and surely having any kind of investment portfolio is going to be a whole hell of a lot more than many people, even in the US of A, where we have way more access to credit and financial services than so many people on the planet. However, many of us still have a lot of difficulties building some kind of investment portfolio. So, in that regard, even just having a mediocre investment portfolio of $1 million or $2million is going to put these kinds of people way in front of the vast majority of other people, whether we are talking about silicon valley or other places in the country. And, for sure, the cost of living for any particular area is going to hamper the extent to which the accumulated amount of wealth meets either "fuck you" status or "filthy rich" status. There are places in the world in which $1million or $2 million, and maybe even some places in the USA (so long as a guy/gal has fairly humble needs) would allow a kind of entry level "fuck you" status, even if there might be some questions regarding future value of such dollar denominated amounts, but there still might be ways in which a BTC portfolio might have decent chances of being able to outperform the value of the dollar in terms of maintaining its value in dollar denominated terms. <part deleted> Never been to Palo Alto (been to many other places in Cali), but I imagine that I know what he is talking about as Houston also has very prosperous enclaves with houses that look like some kings ought to live there. I straddle "the great divide" of both of these arguments. IMHO, in most of US, $1-2 mil remains a pretty good investment portfolio AS LONG as you have a steady job that pays reasonably well (or an equivalent income stream) AND your job gives you a decent health plan. If you don't have a job and you are not close to at least getting Medicare and SocSec, $1-2 mil is woefully insufficient. "Gambler" (the movie) claims that 2mil is enough (F U money), but it is not. The movie is based on the 1974 screen play. Back then, $2mil was certainly F.U. money. Not anymore. Ok. Let's play with $2million. I was not referring to any movie, and sure of course, if you are talking about 1974 as compared to today, then you have to 3x the referred to amount in order to get somewhere close to 2020 dollars. I do believe, however, a person can live decently well off of $2million, which would provide a passive income of $6,666 per month. That is assuming a 4% withdrawal rate that would largely allow the withdrawal of appreciation while maintaining the principle. We have had this conversation before, and of course, you are not going to have any kind of baller lifestyle on $6,666 per month, but it should be enough to get by pretty decently as a kind of passive income, and surely, $2million is better than $1million because it is double the amount of $3,333... even $1million is doable in some parts of the USA and of course certain parts of the world will even allow for better living on that amount of passive income per month. We can agree to disagree if you believe that entry level of fuck you status is absolute more than $1million, because I know all kinds of poor fucks who live off way less than $3,333, and some of them live off less than $1k per month and are able to get by, so $3,333 is going to be much better for them, than $1k, especially passive income. Of course, many of us consider that we want to have a cushion and all those kinds of considerations that involve volatility and making sure that we are planning based on worse case scenarios, but if we can assume either $1million or $2million in principle that is steady, then a lot of people are going to be bat shit excited by that level of principle to be able to generate their 4% per month of a withdrawal rate that would produce $3,333 per month for $1million and $6,666 for $2million. I assume that 6.66K number came from doing 4%? Assume that you are doing this 4%, suddenly, a health issue. No job, no insurance and you are billed $500K. Plus, subtract taxes on RE, etc, etc. 6.6K and moving to less expensive place like Spain or Portugal-maybe. As far as some people getting excited-sure..it turned out that meager donation of $600/wk from CARES act increased "earnings" for more than 60% people on UE ABOVE their previous pay.
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having one or two million in silicon valley might just make you comfortable
I take it you've never been to (e.g.) Palo Alto? I have been there. O.k. Let me see if I can attempt to 'splain my assertion to you. There are a lot of people who don't have shit in regards to investments or savings (even if we account for home ownership, too), and surely having any kind of investment portfolio is going to be a whole hell of a lot more than many people, even in the US of A, where we have way more access to credit and financial services than so many people on the planet. However, many of us still have a lot of difficulties building some kind of investment portfolio. So, in that regard, even just having a mediocre investment portfolio of $1 million or $2million is going to put these kinds of people way in front of the vast majority of other people, whether we are talking about silicon valley or other places in the country. And, for sure, the cost of living for any particular area is going to hamper the extent to which the accumulated amount of wealth meets either "fuck you" status or "filthy rich" status. There are places in the world in which $1million or $2 million, and maybe even some places in the USA (so long as a guy/gal has fairly humble needs) would allow a kind of entry level "fuck you" status, even if there might be some questions regarding future value of such dollar denominated amounts, but there still might be ways in which a BTC portfolio might have decent chances of being able to outperform the value of the dollar in terms of maintaining its value in dollar denominated terms. <part deleted> Never been to Palo Alto (been to many other places in Cali), but I imagine that I know what he is talking about as Houston also has very prosperous enclaves with houses that look like some kings ought to live there. I straddle "the great divide" of both of these arguments. IMHO, in most of US, $1-2 mil remains a pretty good investment portfolio AS LONG as you have a steady job that pays reasonably well (or an equivalent income stream) AND your job gives you a decent health plan. If you don't have a job and you are not close to at least getting Medicare and SocSec, $1-2 mil is woefully insufficient. "Gambler" (the movie) claims that 2mil is enough (F U money), but it is not. The movie is based on the 1974 screen play. Back then, $2mil was certainly F.U. money. Not anymore.
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Hello, I have been reading every single answer to this interesting post. This is because I have also been framed by Bitmain with those S17+ antminers. I have some background in electronics and analyzing those intermittent failures that these miners have just got me a little confused, specially during a time that I checked control boards and data cables by disconnecting back and forth. At times the miner was full throttle mining just to drop after few hours. That in electronics is called a "cold soldering". Although there are not visible cold solderings I discovered that the soldering material that is being used on this S17 have 2 problems.
First, high amount of lead and low proportion of tin, and of course zero silver in the soldering material. This can be observed under the microscope used to soldering circuit boards. All of the solderings showed a greyish mate color and no shinning finish. Second, below normal temperature of the soldering material, also leaves traces, specially on the hashing board chips. Also analyzed under the microscope there are traces that look like an sponge along with tiny cracks surrounding the chip's area at the surface of the hashing board.
So, this takes me into the conclusion that somebody at Bitmain's is trying to cut ends and by doing this they have compromised 50% of the S17, T17 series. The use of soldering with high percentage of plumb just tells me that they are throwing the cheapest crap they have to solder the components on those miners. Also they are trying to reduce electricity costs by not heating well enough the soldering material melted at the trays and this is specially true because the soldering material with higher proportion-ratio of lead instead of tin and silver takes colder temperatures to melt.
So taking all this into consideration I really recommend to all of those that are willing to throw the money into shipping costs, customs fees and no mining income, just don't do it because Bitmain still uses the same bad quality materials to fix it.
Since that soldering material is all over the hashing and controller boards is just a matter of time chips keep coming off the boards, the only and costly solution is to desoldering them all and soldering back with a good quality soldering flux, other than that those miners will keep failing over and over.
Basically most of the S17 series are doomed.
Since S9 had a pretty good reliability/longevity (on average), I wonder what is the cause of the apparently shoddy work done on these machines?
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I am going out on a limb here, but there is very little chance of eth 9K. That's a trillion $ market cap. For what? On the other hand, I can easily see btc at $150K since the use cases for it are much more streamlined.
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I dabble in GBTC because I can trade it in IRA and the realized gains are not taxable (that is, until I take $$ from the account). If i can simplify @fillippone's great thread it would be that I invest in GBTC to "gorge" on the increased premium during the bull run. During the last bull market premium topped 100% at least a couple of times. If something similar would happen again, it would outperform btc in $$ terms. That said, it's not a major position for me.
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According to planB, apparently, SP500 and btc are not only correlated (95% R2), but they are also co-integrated. Ooops! Albeit, current SP500 suggests 18K btc https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1273202818476892160At $288K btc (predicted by the S2FX model), SP500 'should' become 4300, which is entirely possible, considering the amount of "pumping". How much " The Big mac" would cost then, I don't know, but probably not less than $10.
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Certainly, Powell is "massaging" Congress to allocate more stimulus so he can lever up even more. Municipalities, etc. are just a side show.
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