Bitcoin go up.
Coinbase go down.
Like clockwork.
well, if mindtrust had coins on Coinbase, he would possibly still have them  I don't want to neg on him too much 'cause I had my share of panic sells as many others had as well, I am reasonably sure, unless y'all have iron balls. Maybe the difference is that you don't panic sell the stash, but rather a small portion. I consider it a sacrifice (like in ancient Greece)) for the sake of all remaining bitcoiners. Blow off steam. Coronavirus Cases: 8,049,670. Deaths: 436,682. Recovered: 4,154,981.
- More than 100,000 new cases worldwide were reported each day for the last two weeks.
- A resurgence in new infections has been detected in Florida, Texas and California. 170,000 new cases in the U.S within one week.
What this does to a theory that temperature should bring it down? We had a couple weeks with temp above 90F or above 32C, but cases are climbing fast. People don't realize that it is an entity that could mutate to facilitate it's propagation. Pure darwinian evolution in real time. |
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Maybe I'm out of touch, but I really don't get this whine. Economic progress is so simple it is stupid. Create something of value that someone else is willing to pay you for. End of story.
..economic progress works by squeezing the Fed until it squeaks "whatever it takes", and letting it mop up all your junk investments. Right...I believe that fed actions not only this time, but all the way at least since the LTCM "crisis" in 1997 indirectly created more and more stress in the system. The market cannot perform it's weighting function, especially not when faced with a 2, 3, 5, 6.7 tril $$ "bazooka". I have no idea how this ends and when, but all those rallying bankrupt companies have got to indicate something that is not healthy. |
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Yes, I give 80% to no 100K in 2021 and, hence, invalidation of S2F model, but not S2FX model.
Hang on, his S2F model never showed 100k in 2021. It showed 100k by 2024. That is vastly different. Sure if it followed 2017 pattern, peak might be 2021, but PlanB never claimed that. At least not to my knowledge. Oh, yes, he did show 100K in 2021... https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1247580045331365888https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1267214325661433856 https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1256156555009036290interpretation in https://digitalik.net/btc/Basically, S2F shows that price "should be" at 100K already. Granted, it took 6-18 mo before to get to the theoretical price (and exceed it), but if it takes an extra 4 years (a full cycle), then there is no much value in S2F model specifically vs 4-year cycle based models and numerology of apparent diminishing % appreciation, etc. ....and many other entries, like on this podcast (the confusion is S2F vs S2FX, and in podcast he mostly talks about S2FX): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2cP8k_QUaw |
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Here are my thoughts:
1. If stocks seriously tank (20% probability), btc would tank just as well with bear market continuing. Yes, until we exceed 20K, we are still technically in a local bull market within a longer bear market.
Likely that is a fair probability assignment, yet I am not sure if you can presume that BTC would tank to the same degree nor on the same timeline as stocks.. Let's say that some kind of Japan-like bearmarket ensues.. Maybe after a few years bitcoin might start to recover, perhaps? Or, let's say equities are down 10-20 years, and that would not necessarily mean that bitcoin might not start to recover in that, even if maybe bitcoin crashes deeper and harder, but there remains a considerable amount of difficulty to ONLY ascribe a long term correlation expectation to bitcoin under such circumstances.. and even there are variants in the degree of such a worse case scenario in terms of recovery, supply lines, war, another currency taking over or all currencies stagnate? Maybe you are suggesting gold is going to prosper in such a scenario while bitcoin languishes, which seems quite unlikely too, except maybe some weird scenario in which internet and computers no longer exist, and you are likely not predicting that scenario to be within your 20% worse case scenario, right? yes, of course, in a long bear market in stocks (10-20 years) btc could recover much earlier and even go to ATH at some point. I was mostly referring to planb's scenarios for 2021 and 2020-2024. Well, if planB's price projection is partially based upon projecting future price from past performance, and some aberration, such as a black swan event, causes the present performance to skew the future performance direction, then that would not mean that planB is wrong, it just means that some new data changes the trajectory of the curve.... and maybe it changes it a lot or maybe it just changes the trajectory a little. Currently, we have no evidence of a changed trajectory, merely some speculation from you about the possibility of the trajectory being changed, and you seem to be placing the odds of the trajectory being changed at something like 80%, which just seems ridiculous the more that I think about it. Think about it yourself. You seem to be trying to discredit a BTC price prediction model that is highly correlated and cointegrated with existing data with an assumption that the BTC price is correlated to equities markets. Think about it. You seem to presume that BTC prices are correlated with equities, and then you set up various what if scenarios that build upon your assumption, when your assumption is far from even close to being true in the first place even though we have witnessed some short term correlation of BTC and equities, there is nothing really showing longer term correlation of BTC and equities - which makes it a pretty lame hypothesis to inject into attempting to show some flaws in the stock to flow model.. and sure I am not presuming that the stock to flow model is perfect or it is going to end up playing out correctly, but the stock to flow model is, at least, based on building a future trajectory that is attempting to come to reasonable and logical projections based on past performance. The "experiment" (future price trajectory) will show. I did not like the fact that planB concocted a second model BEFORE seeing if the prior would work out or not. Since he replaced the first one (S2F) with a second one (S2FX) I posit that the first one is inferior and from what I saw so far, indeed, it is. Yes, I give 80% to no 100K in 2021 and, hence, invalidation of S2F model, but not S2FX model. Lame or not lame-we shall see, won't we? In fact, hodling should become even stronger as there would be no high price enticement to sell, at least in 2020-2021...well, with 80% guesstimated probability. |
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Incredible numbers here (savings rate 1959-2020): https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-savings33% savings rate when the last 25 years it was 5-7%. What does this mean? Short term inflation is unlikely, long term, probably, guaranteed, with even a small whiff of goods shortage. Everything is out of balance so I am keeping a hefty cash balance in my ret accounts. Maybe the next 5-10 years is capital preservation time and we would have to be running just to stay put. |
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Here are my thoughts:
1. If stocks seriously tank (20% probability), btc would tank just as well with bear market continuing. Yes, until we exceed 20K, we are still technically in a local bull market within a longer bear market.
Likely that is a fair probability assignment, yet I am not sure if you can presume that BTC would tank to the same degree nor on the same timeline as stocks.. Let's say that some kind of Japan-like bearmarket ensues.. Maybe after a few years bitcoin might start to recover, perhaps? Or, let's say equities are down 10-20 years, and that would not necessarily mean that bitcoin might not start to recover in that, even if maybe bitcoin crashes deeper and harder, but there remains a considerable amount of difficulty to ONLY ascribe a long term correlation expectation to bitcoin under such circumstances.. and even there are variants in the degree of such a worse case scenario in terms of recovery, supply lines, war, another currency taking over or all currencies stagnate? Maybe you are suggesting gold is going to prosper in such a scenario while bitcoin languishes, which seems quite unlikely too, except maybe some weird scenario in which internet and computers no longer exist, and you are likely not predicting that scenario to be within your 20% worse case scenario, right? yes, of course, in a long bear market in stocks (10-20 years) btc could recover much earlier and even go to ATH at some point. I was mostly referring to planb's scenarios for 2021 and 2020-2024. |
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hmmmm
flip a coin?
I will be honest..I am not sure what narrative drives the price above $10k right now and sustains it. I still think we will see a pump over the next week if the fractal from last year holds. But I dont see it continuing in a years long bull run like everyone is hoping for. There is to much uncertainty in the world right now. Logic would dictate everyone pile into an actual hard money to preserve wealth but markets have never been rational.
So basically...in typical bitcoin fashion...pump it up and then dump...thats my two sats
So yea...kinda feeling a little bearish today..will just have to see what happens over the next couple of weeks.
one thing is for sure: hot money retail crowd is not into bitcoin at the moment and are, instead, chasing bankrupt companies, lol. Bitcoin is currently fighting to be considered hard money, but only history would eventually show if it succeeds or not. I am willing to believe in this narrative, but there are no guarantees. Here are my thoughts: 1. If stocks seriously tank (20% probability), btc would tank just as well with bear market continuing. Yes, until we exceed 20K, we are still technically in a local bull market within a longer bear market. 2. If stocks are approximately flat or very slightly decline (60% probability), btc would appreciate, but not hundreds of %% per year and will NOT reach S2F numbers (at least at the predicted time). 3. If stocks appreciate (20% probability), btc could reach S2F numbers in time (2021). Therefore: 20/100 (1:5 or 20%) chance (IMHO) that the S2F goal (55K-100K) would be reached in 2021 (no indication for later). I think that planB now realized this, so he came up with S2FX, which does not have an exact timeframe and generally talks about the 2020-2024 period, which could be backloaded and also caused by inflation closer to mid decade. EDIT: in order to be real hard money, bitcoin would have to deal, somehow, with all those Defi/lending companies that pay up to 4% interest (in BTC!). It is not clear to me how this is possible with hard btc number, or, at least, maybe possible, but prone to collapse with fast price moves. |
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Important Clarifications by PlanBS2FX misunderstandings:
1) Phase5 not defined. Phase5 ~ S2F55-60 & $100-900K
2) S2FX not falsifiable. Falsified if phase5 or other scarce assets (diamonds/homes) are not ~on S2FX line
3) Altcoins,palladium,platinum are left out. No, they are not scarce: S2F<1, no PoW/hash/liq/etc   Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1271555833130815488Honestly, as much as I like planB, I am much more eager to see how S2F plays out first, forget about that wicked S2FX for a while. First things first. |
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Tomorrow Dow another 4% down, perhaps, with later day recovery?
No prediction for btc apart from noting that we correlated with Dow/SP500 today and gold did not.
I hope that this short term "trend" won't continue.
For those who might want to complain about gold being mentioned, I am thinking that we need to compare to it more and more in the next, say, 5 years until we overcome it, hopefully.
Focusing on fighting gold makes it:
a. more achievable
b. a solid narrative
c. safer for cashing out in the mid term
planb has a nice chart predicting btc moves with regards to gold and ignoring $.
IMHO, that's the way to go (in comparisons).
If we achieve 100oz/btc in 2 years, as he postulates, I would be very happy.
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These little moves are SO funny...
suddenly Yahoo does not show VIX among other indexes, which is, incidentally, up 54 49% today.
I had a few thoughts:
1. It is in the interest of elites to have at least one or two conduits to preserve wealth IF the economic situation deteriorates.
2. Historically, gold was one such conduit.
3. There is a chance that gold would be replaced (at least in part) with bitcoin, but only, paradoxically, if the inflation will not increase tremendously.
4. I believe that if inflation becomes high (and, therefore, $ declines), it would be in the interest of PTB to try to smash any and all competitors, which would then include gold and btc.
5. Conclusion: we have a shot on much appreciation AS LONG as inflation is at least reasonably tame.
I know that this goes against the dominant view that inflation favors bitcoin, but in my opinion, only to a degree.
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Is this some kind of algorithmic trading?
Bizarro.
...at least coinbase didn't glitch, apparently
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WTF, Tesla stock. W.T.F.
Terrifying for the poor pleb investors.
I refused to be a fool, dancing on the string held by all those big shots...in Godfather's scratchy voice and caressing my 2 day stubble. That said, at least it is not officially bankrupt yet. |
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Winklevoss Twins to Help Adapt ‘Bitcoin Billionaires’ Book for FilmAs reported by Deadline on Monday, the twins will work with Stampede Ventures to turn “Bitcoin Billionaires” by Ben Mezrich into a movie. Stampede is an entity created by Greg Silverman, formerly Warner Bros.’ president of production, to fund blockbuster entertainment. https://www.coindesk.com/winklevoss-twins-to-help-adapt-bitcoin-billionaires-book-for-filmIf we see the twins walking the Hollywood red carpet, every last satoshi will be bought. I dunno. The rich, gentrified, polo/country/rowing club white dude vibe is not exactly tops in the world right now. They better get Arthur to walk with them. Or on them. *ducking* They can take some artistic liberties. Certainly they can find a pair of handsome, young, black twin actors. They can modify the story a bit to make them grow up in the Baltimore housing projects or something. Well, "Social network" boosted Zuck. I am sure they aim to have the same effect, which, I doubt, will happen. There is not much of the story there. Judge by yourself: a couple of rich guys vacationing in Ibiza, some friend introduces them to bitcoin, then a brilliant moment of realization that it could be important. Buying 100K btc (not more than a $1mil then), then founding Gemini, which is great, but a minor (by volume) exchange. Enjoying ever richer lifestyle. Fin. It's not going to sell/inspire. |
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since btc is doing nothin', I wonder if Nasdaq will make it to 10K today?
Even chances, IMHO.
Anybody's up for buying any puts?
That would be a counter-trend move as everyone is buying calls+buying bankrupt companies' worthless (in the future) stock.
EDIT: made it!
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Hertz, which went bankrupt recently, is now trading higher than before it went bankrupt.  but of course, since all that matters is a number, the Robinhood populace has been trained well. There is no risk of going bankrupt again, ain't there? well, I start to feel a whiff of a Dec 2017-Jan 2018 type situation. Nothin' can go wrong. My spidy senses are tingling. |
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I don’t envy the old. They’ll be stuck with whatever the State is willing to give them. Probably not a lot (anyone recalls the good old USSR?) and inflation will eat the rest.
The young(er) ones will at least be able to keep up somewhat through wage pressure.
A socialist muddle through may not even be the worst way to get through this 4th turning stuff.
Yes, sure. It was clear for a while that we would eventually end up with inflation. Hopefully, bitcoin would follow the inflation up, then, once inflation is very high, switching into bonds would be a good move, probably. Maybe 5-10 years, max. It took 5 years in Germany, maybe twice as long here (and lower numerical values) due to the fight back from the monetary authorities. On a bright side, everyone would be a millionaire, lol. |
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Perhaps Social Security could be paid our depending upon the amount of years you were voting age and the debt went up. Pay first toward paying down that debt, anything left over can be distributed in social security checks.
Win win for everyone I'd say.
"But I paid into that my whole life!"
Ya, you also took more than you paid in your whole life as well. Time to pay back.
Well, WHOSE debt went up? I am servicing MY debt. I did not ask anyone to take on debt. BTW, soc security statement says exactly how much you and your employers contributed. So far, I contributed quite a bit, but got zero out and it will be this way for a long time. By all calculations, boomers did not take their contributions out yet (the "oldest" boomers started getting Soc sec only in about 2012-2013, "youngest" would do so in 2029-2031 if there would be anything left by that time), it was prior generations that spent more than they contributed. You fellas are misinformed at best. |
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