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3361  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2020, 11:46:07 PM
It's true, but $2400+828=$3228/mo in TX for furloughed restaurant workers surely beats maybe $160 (for 80hr at $2 per hr)+ maybe $1-1.2K in tips.
I agree with coming back, though, especially since restaurants have them in a bind: you can't NOT come back when they ask you, plus they got a sweetener of maybe $100-200/wk of COVID-pay (that comes from PPP). I know all this 'cause someone I know well works part time at a restaurant.

Damn, that would mean either offering higher wages or enslaving workers. Wonder which way this country will go.

enslavement, of course, there is no question about it.
I cannot believe that someone concocted a legal loophole allowing assholes to pay $2.13/hr already (instead of measly federal $7.25).
3362  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2020, 11:30:17 PM
https://twitter.com/ssoeborg/status/1264655812984799234?s=20

Quote
Dont take the unemployment stimulus. Go get a job now, because if/when the unemployment stimulus runs out there is going to be alot of people looking for a job and your chances of getting one will be much lower.

It's true, but $2400+828=$3228/mo in TX for furloughed restaurant workers surely beats maybe $160 (for 80hr at $2 per hr)+ maybe $1-1.2K in tips.
I agree with coming back, though, especially since restaurants have them in a bind: you can't NOT come back when they ask you, plus they got a sweetener of maybe $100-200/wk of COVID-pay (that comes from PPP). I know all this 'cause someone I know well works part time at a restaurant.
3363  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2020, 11:15:38 PM
BTC dominance seems to be in a bit of trouble:



^ This dataset is better described by the word "flat".
3364  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2020, 09:31:28 PM
Adam Back's retweet of a funny video..an apparent fight between cough-alt-cough and bitcoin:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1263450933486333955
3365  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2020, 09:08:23 PM
btc is fighting off the annoying pest Vegeta...

How about your dark core score?
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-dark-core-of-personality

The actual test is here:
http://qst.darkfactor.org

Not predicting anything for WO, but I am slightly on the dark side (took a shorter variant), lol.

full enchilada
2.19  Embarrassed

2.19 is less than 50% or about that.
I am 2.5 (59%), a "dark lord" comparing with @gentlemand 18%...you guys are so nice (as expected, though).
3366  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2020, 08:23:29 PM
btc is fighting off the annoying pest Vegeta...

How about your dark core score?
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-dark-core-of-personality

The actual test is here:
http://qst.darkfactor.org

Not predicting anything for WO, but I am slightly on the dark side (took a shorter variant), lol.
3367  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2020, 07:16:48 PM
Whats the price miners will give up and BTC dies? I wonder if these greedy people let BTC collapse just to make profit.
I have no idea what you are talking about.

BTW, according to the 2016 "fractal", we might have a 30% draw-down from high before resuming the bull market.
So, I penciled in 7000ish (plus minus $500) as a possibility. If not, excellent as well.


There is a price point where mining does not make any sense/profit because the mining itself is more expensive than the price of the coin.

No, there is no such number because the difficulty adjusts lower dynamically once marginally profitable or unprofitable miners exit.
It does not make sense for some to mine at a certain price point at the current difficulty, but it does not mean that it is true for MOST at any particular difficulty.
3368  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2020, 07:03:26 PM
Stop shilling your coin Biodom

my coin? you mean btc, I hope  Grin
3369  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2020, 06:55:47 PM
Whats the price miners will give up and BTC dies? I wonder if these greedy people let BTC collapse just to make profit.
I have no idea what you are talking about.

BTW, according to the 2016 "fractal", we might have a 30% draw-down from high before resuming the bull market.
So, I penciled in 7000ish (plus minus $500) as a possibility. If not, excellent as well, I don't want to scare the newbies and/or children.
3370  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2020, 06:45:28 PM
In US, it is relatively easy. Typically, bankrupt company still trades with a different stock symbol, so you can still close the short, and if it is not traded, then you can still effectively "close" it once it becomes "worthless entity", might take some time, though. The best scenario is when it still trades at a few cents as a bankrupt entity. However, you NEVER "lose" when you are short and company goes bankrupt.

So the opposite side still gets screwed

My thoughts were specifically around an asset heading to zero I suppose




Of course, for longs in an equity bankruptcy typically means prices close to zero, eventually hitting that zero when it is declared a "worthless entity".
For bondholders, chapter 11 means some recovery, typically in the 30% range, sometimes more, sometimes less. Very often, their bonds will get converted into newly emerged company (Newco) equity, so eventually, prior bondholders can even make some money, but it would require time.
3371  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2020, 06:11:24 PM
In US, it is relatively easy. Typically, bankrupt company still trades with a different stock symbol, so you can still close the short, and if it is not traded, then you can still effectively "close" it once it becomes "worthless entity", might take some time, though. The best scenario is when it still trades at a few cents as a bankrupt entity. However, you NEVER "lose" when you are short and company goes bankrupt.
3372  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2020, 05:11:52 PM
Are we safe in our holding cell?
Are we safe in our citadel?
Asks KGATLW..

Enjoy, if you can.

Crumbling Castle

3373  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2020, 12:34:18 AM
Good interview, a bit more substantive than the usual cointelegraph fare...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/defi-exec-believes-crypto-community-mostly-short-term-thinkers
Quote
The main thing that I think most people miss when they come to crypto is when they know they’ve worked in something on Wall Street or something on Main Street and they say, “Oh, my gosh. If I just take this and transport it to the blockchain, it's going to be the next big thing. All I have to do is take the best idea of how Wall Street steals money from people and deliver it on the blockchain, and I'm gonna be a billionaire.”

Thanks for posting this article, but after reading it I feel like Alex Mashinsky either still doesn't get it, or is like preaching to the choir. He also doesn't offer up any solutions of his own, only listing the current state issues.

He talks a lot of shit about the community not "being proactive enough" in gaining mainstream adoption but I mean, where the hell has he been for the last 10 years? What does he personally plan to do about it today?

Quote
For Mashinsky, the end goal of the crypto community should be “to create a new economic system.”

Uh, gee, thanks Captain Obvious? No shit, like that hasn't been the goal all along.  Roll Eyes

Mashinsky is disappointed that we all don't rush and give all our btc to him to 'lend' out, lol.
What are the chances that either blockfi or celsius kicks the bucket eventually?
I say 50:50 within 10 years (my guesstimate from the abnormally high interest yield).
3374  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 23, 2020, 04:40:20 PM
Yup.  Stock market is way too high.  Too early to buy the blood in the streets.  Need to wait.



Thanks for the graph. Stocks are very high, indeed, but there is that pesky gap on the top. It might fill first, or at least, it is a possibility.
Personally, I am risking only about 34% of my fiat in stocks (not even the index).
Crazy moves in 2020, but so far I am staying the course, periodically buying/selling some trends.
3375  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 22, 2020, 01:39:53 AM
Sweden now has the worlds highest per capita death toll from coronavirus

Quote
But over the last seven days, Sweden had an average of 6.08 deaths per million inhabitants - more than any other country in the world.

This is in comparison to 5.57 in the UK, 4.28 in Belgium, 4.11 in the US, 2.62 in Spain, 2.29 in Italy, and 2.26 in France.

Many of these other countries saw far more virus deaths earlier in the pandemic, but managed to bring down the numbers with strict lockdown measures.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/20/sweden-becomes-country-highest-coronavirus-death-rate-per-capita/



Not good, but it is misleading for them to focus only on one week.
On the other hand, nobody can safely predict the overall toll during this event.
They tried to get to herd immunity fast, which is risky, but presumably spiky, others tried to flatten it as a pancake, but who knows what would be the area under the graph be eventually smaller or larger? Nobody knows.

BTW, why, exactly btc declined so abruptly? Bizarro.
I know the story...maybe satoshi...blah...blah...maybe someone else..blah blah, whatever, it just shows that many all those longs don't really trust the asset.
3376  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 21, 2020, 11:09:24 PM
sidenote: what is e-yuan that I am getting advertised for on yahoo?
Sounds exactly like bitconnect because they promise returns...was 5100, now 4500 $$, lol.

Don't buy!
3377  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2020, 04:33:19 PM
I remember some of you guys used to grin a lot... How's your sh!tcoin doing?



18 Months In, Few People Use, Mine or Buy Privacy Coin Grin

https://www.coindesk.com/18-months-few-people-use-mine-buy-privacy-coin-cryptocurrency-grin

Not sure why you are so up in arms because of a $20-30mil market cap alt.
Nobody really bought it, but you could have mined it on a video card, which is not really possible with other coins.
It's too difficult to use, hence it is mostly a developer toy. Plus, it has high inflation in a first few years as supply is growing linearly (at around 63 mil/year).
Not really anonymous, either.



Yeah.  People do not understand that the innovation in MimbleWimble is not the "privacy", but the potential for scaling with a lightweight blockchain.  I think that is why so many bitcoin talk OGs were interested.

But it is unproven tech, and  Grin is the proving ground for better or worse.

It's economics are also interesting.  And in some ways obviously not designed for competition with BTC.  I have never mined, nor bought a single pip of Grin, myself.

I find people's obsession with alts failing to be a telling thing about someone's security when it comes to Bitcoin's place as the lindy project with network effect.

In the end we HAVE to do the experiments.

Some coin HAS to try to be a world computer and do all calc on chain. (ETH)
Some coin HAS to have no blocksize limit and store all kinds of data on chain and centralize. (BSV)
Some coin has to have inflationary monetary policy. (Doge?)
Some project has to have an opaque base layer, and be capable of truly private use. (Monero?)
ETC ETC ETC
Grin gets to try to prove out mimblewimble.

And then there are all the projects that have no purpose because they try to compromise on one or more of those aspects in the name of "moderation" (BCH?).  

We simply cannot live in a world where BITCOIN exists as an open source distributed ledger tech attempting to become money where competing forks and copycat software does not exist.  Can't have both of those things.

It sucks for those of us old enough to have less life left to live as this stuff works itself out... but it has to work itself out.

My bet is on Bitcoin.  (Well, and I do keep a Monero side bet so to speak...  I just list that here to make JJG froth)


I would refer to this as a @cAPSLOCK conjecture: we HAVE to do experiments while betting on bitcoin (and others, as a side bet, if you are pleased to do so and in moderation).
3378  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2020, 05:53:20 AM

At this moment I only have one alternative, very repeated in your posts, "I will assign a minimum weekly amount" so as not to miss the train.
It is the first time since I bought Bitcoin that I have been forced to sell.
I feel a little strange, a btc bull without btc Angry, I hope it does not affect me mentally and continue to share the good and bad moments in WO, I do not like the idea of ​​getting away from here.

Thx, you for your comments.

Wow, sorry to hear this, kind of drastic, but, bro, any amount of btc is good as long as your mind is on a right track as a bitcoiner.
3379  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2020, 05:41:02 AM

Bitcoin Forms Elusive Golden Cross Pattern as Economic Models Forecast Fresh Highs

Quote
This elusive pattern was formed between its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and elucidates that the crypto’s macro market structure is incredibly strong.



Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/05/20/bitcoin-forms-golden-cross-pattern/

This is just a model, the one that is most accepted is the S2F that predicts that in some time not so far away, Bitcoin can reach $ 300k

looking at that chart, can't I see a similar "Elusive Golden Cross" a few months ago? Immediately afterwards bitcoin fell of a fucking cliff.

yea, because TA cannot predict a real life events, like the virus.
Dinosaur "dominance" TA probably looked great looking forward for millions of years if not for a pesky asteroid.

Talking about dominance, I finally figured out what bothers me in alts: the fact that they confuse the heck out of everyone not involved in bitcoin, which results in altcoin chasing, etc.
When a solid chunk of humanity is exposed to bitcoin, say 10-20%, THEN I would be more OK with the experimentation.
Bringing those 700-1bil people onboard is hard enough without them exploring cheap alts and getting busted/frustrated and dropping out.
Of course, exchanges are promoting this to no end as they are making money in all those sloshing alts.
The adopting process is also slow as heck. Where is the famous hockey stick?

3380  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2020, 04:18:04 AM
I remember some of you guys used to grin a lot... How's your sh!tcoin doing?



18 Months In, Few People Use, Mine or Buy Privacy Coin Grin

https://www.coindesk.com/18-months-few-people-use-mine-buy-privacy-coin-cryptocurrency-grin

Give it another year.

Ha! Been mining that shit straight to an exchange ever since it launched.
Then like once a month I log in and dump it all for bitcoin.
(Still don’t have a clue how to send or receive it, but who cares)
It keeps my hot wallet stocked with some (accumulating) bitcoin dust.
One way to indirectly “mine” bitcoin with video cards I suppose.

Talking about video cards...someone mistakenly (I think) posted MSI 1080 ti Gaming X (open box) at $45.88 plus shipping on ebay...30 were already sold in one day (today).
Either scam or a mistake, there is no way he will send them out for this price...lol. I didn't bother to buy since it is all going to be refunded at best or lost at the worst.
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