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3381  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: New setup- assume free power on: July 31, 2014, 04:46:40 PM
sure, imagine my family owned a powerplant and within that powerplant i had an outlet and no one cared about power consumption. I still havent received a concise answer as  to why my plan  would/wouldnt work assuming free power. like i said before im a total newb at this and would like help.
To understand why your plan may or may not work requires you to understand the role of difficulty in your expected ROI.  Difficulty is a means by which the Bitcoin network adjusts itself to try and maintain a 10 minute block generation time.  As more and more hashing power is added to the network, blocks are solved faster and faster (typically).  Every 2016 blocks, the network looks at the average generation time and adjusts the difficulty to bring it back in line.

In a nutshell, as difficulty goes up, and your hashing power remains constant, you earn less BTC.  Here's a quick breakdown.  Your 5 S3s will hash at about 2.2TH/s.  Let's see how that would have manifested over the past few difficulties in expected earnings per day:

On 6/18, the difficulty was 13,462,580,115.  2.2TH/s expected to earn 0.08218BTC a day
On 6/29, the difficulty was 16,818,461,371.  2.2TH/s expected to earn 0.06579BTC a day
On 7/12, the difficulty was 17,336,316,979.  2.2TH/s expected to earn 0.06382BTC a day
On 7/25, the difficulty was 18,736,441,558.  2.2TH/s expected to earn 0.05905BTC a day

As you can plainly see, as the difficulty goes up, your expected earnings goes down, and how much the difficulty goes up directly corresponds to how much your expected earnings go down.  Just for fun, let's see what that same 2.2TH/s would have expected to earn in December of last year:

On 12/21/2013, the difficulty was 1,180,923,195.  2.2TH/s expected to earn 0.9369BTC a day.

So, in 7 months, that same hashing power went from earning you close to 1BTC a day to now making about 0.06BTC a day, because the difficulty went from 1.1 billion to the current 18.7 billion.  If you project that every single difficulty adjustment will be an increase of 20%, let's take a look at what that same 2.2TH/s would be earning you:

After 10 difficulty adjustments of 20% each, the difficulty would be about 116,000,000,000.  2.2TH/s expects to earn 0.009538BTC a day.  10 difficulty jumps should be right around the end of November this year.  So, at the end of a year's hashing, your gear would be earning just about 100 times less.  In fact, the decreased earnings EXACTLY corresponds to the increased difficulty.  Here's the actual formula for calculating expected earnings:

Code:
25 / (Difficulty * 2**32 / your hash rate / 86400) = expected earnings per day

So... now you need to speculate.  What do YOU believe the difficulty will do?
3382  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: What PSU you use for your antminer S3? on: July 31, 2014, 02:55:09 PM
Get a 1500 watt psu and hook like 4 to it... Save a lot of space and trouble..

There are a lot of people who would never even be able to order a 1500W PSU due to it being out of stock or not even available in their area of the world.  It might be reasonable to get an 800W or 1200W and hook up 2 or 3 respectively, but 1500/1600W PSUs are sometimes hard to come by.
Besides the availability of such PSUs, the prices they command are unreasonable.  An EVGA 1300 G2 can be had for about $175 on Amazon.  The EVGA 1600W PSU is about $350.  I'm pretty sure I'd rather have 2 of the 1300W units for the same cost as one of the 1600W units.

Another thing to consider is the power from the wall.  If you're in the US and plugging it into your typical wall outlet, and there's nothing else at all on that circuit, you can pull a max constant load of 1440W before tripping your breaker (80% of 120V/15A), which renders the 1600W PSU a worthless investment.

You won't trip the breaker at 80% of max load.  The general rule is for continuous applications, like mining, is that the load is not to exceed 80% of the maximum.  Short term items like microwaves can still use the max for a couple of minutes without tripping.

1/3 to 1/2 the households have 20A wiring now, so the 1600W isolated is usable - of course you could always use 240V.
We're on the same page regarding the circuit load.  Pulling the full - or close to full - load from a circuit is certainly supported for "bursts".  The microwave is a good example of this kind of load - pulling a lot of power for short periods.  What is not supported is continued and constant draw over 80%.  Your mining gear is a good example of this kind of load.

240V is always a better option simply because higher volts means less amps for the same power requirements.  Your PSUs will be happier.
3383  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: What PSU you use for your antminer S3? on: July 31, 2014, 02:45:24 PM
I don't have my Ant's just yet, but I'll be getting them hopefully in batch 5. Just ordered a Corsair RM1000 that should be good to power them both. I chose this one because it's fully modular, has 8 PCI-Express connectors and at the time I was able to get $20 off, plus a $20 rebate card. So it was essentially $140.00 for a $180.00 psu.

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16817139057

The RM1000 is a good, solid choice.  I have had luck with the Corsair products, having owned a CX600M (sold it to a friend to use with his S1), and an HX1050 which powered 2 S1s for 4 months and is now powering 2 S3s.
3384  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 600Gh/s What's the Best Pool for the Buck on: July 30, 2014, 09:13:21 PM
Have been using Eligius but want to make the most amount of money for the small investment we have.  What are the suggested pools, and is there a place to compare the potential differences on what you can make daily on avg per pool?

Thanks!
In the long run there won't be much difference in payouts between the different pools.  Some charge fees, others don't.

You could always set your miners to load balance across a number of pools to diversify your hashing power.  Here's a good thread that shows a long-running experiment on three different pools (BTCGuild, Eligius and p2pool): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=416933.0

Awesome, thanks!  I guess that's in January so not too far behind but yea looks like that answers my question.  I wish I had that many miners back then....ha.  So are they all the same type of pool, like PPLNS?

Why are there so many people on Ghash?  I personally would never go use them, but interesting non the least.
Yeah, having about 3.6TH/s 6 months ago would have been nice Smiley (About 56BTC nice).

BTCGuild is PPLNS (I believe they had a PPS pool previously that you could mine for a fee... I'd have to let someone else clarify here)
P2Pool is also PPLNS, but works based on a share chain.  When a block is found, payouts are calculated for the previous 8640 shares.
Eligius is a variant of PPS (CPPSRB) that wizkid devised.

Why are so many people on GHash.io?  I don't know... why do so many people use Microsoft products?  Some things just defy logic Tongue
3385  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: What PSU you use for your antminer S3? on: July 30, 2014, 08:34:57 PM
Get a 1500 watt psu and hook like 4 to it... Save a lot of space and trouble..

There are a lot of people who would never even be able to order a 1500W PSU due to it being out of stock or not even available in their area of the world.  It might be reasonable to get an 800W or 1200W and hook up 2 or 3 respectively, but 1500/1600W PSUs are sometimes hard to come by.
Besides the availability of such PSUs, the prices they command are unreasonable.  An EVGA 1300 G2 can be had for about $175 on Amazon.  The EVGA 1600W PSU is about $350.  I'm pretty sure I'd rather have 2 of the 1300W units for the same cost as one of the 1600W units.

Another thing to consider is the power from the wall.  If you're in the US and plugging it into your typical wall outlet, and there's nothing else at all on that circuit, you can pull a max constant load of 1440W before tripping your breaker (80% of 120V/15A), which renders the 1600W PSU a worthless investment.
3386  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: New setup- assume free power on: July 30, 2014, 08:22:44 PM
cool, thanks for the response. so all the profitability calculators are way the f**k off? mine pooling would be better off, and if the difficulty doesnt increase so drastically in the short run, assuming a $550 coin or higher, would i break even at say 1 or 2 month like the calculators say or not?
All the online calculators make assumptions and use static values where dynamic ones are needed.  Another thing to consider is how you're looking at ROI.  If you purchase hardware in BTC, you need to think of ROI in terms of BTC.  If you purchase hardware in fiat (like USD), then you can think of ROI in terms of fiat.  Do not intermix the two.  Examples:

1 - You purchase Joe Miner's new rig for 3BTC.  If that miner gives you back more than 3BTC before you unplug it, you've made a positive ROI
2 - You purchase Joe Miner's new rig for $1800.  If that miner mines enough BTC that you could convert to USD to cover your investment, you've made a positive ROI.

Example of how NOT to think of things:

1 - You purchase 3BTC from an exchange for $1800.  You then use those coins to purchase Joe Miner's new rig for 3BTC.  After 6 months, the miner has mined 2BTC and you pull the plug.  In 6 months the price of BTC has gone to $1000.  You sell your 2BTC for $2000.  You DID NOT make a positive ROI.  You ended up with less BTC than you started with.
3387  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: New setup- assume free power on: July 30, 2014, 08:14:20 PM
thanks for the reply. can you break down in ranges what is limited, medium, high processing speeds? Also, sorry for asking the obvious whats the units to measure it as it starts Gh/s -> to whats next ->  and so on? if i were to buy a dedicated rig to mine for the next 6 months how much $$ would it take to setup to have a decent expectation of break even and profitability within say 6-12 months?
The units are hashes per second.
KH/s - kilohashes per second - 1,000 h/s
MH/s - megahashes per second - 1,000,000 h/s
GH/s - gigahashes per second - 1,000,000,000 h/s
TH/s - terrahashes per second - 1,000,000,000,000 h/s
PH/s - petahashes per second - 1,000,000,000,000,000 h/s
... and so on.

Your average PC's CPU will measure speeds in KH/s
Your average PC's GPU will measure speeds in MH/s
You average ASIC will measure speeds in GH/s - TH/s

Your last question is just another variation on your first post in this thread, "What rig will make me profit?" If we all knew what machines would guarantee profit, I'm pretty sure we'd all have bought the manufacturer out of them by now Smiley
3388  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: New setup- assume free power on: July 30, 2014, 08:05:38 PM
hey thanks for the response! as you can see im still pretty much new to all this, so bear with me. With the formula you used, the return is half a bitcoin in a year and change? Is that solo or mining pool? Does that factor in the % of getting supremely lucky and getting a block reward (25 coins)? 

and if you could simplify it even more, assuming free electricity, how is mining even worth it at all? How are the businesses which make specialized mining rigs sell things if its a losing proposition of say $1000 per $1500 spent?

Yes 0.5BTC if the difficulty goes up at a high rate.  4.5BTC if it goes up slowly.  This is assuming pool mining - solo mining would be bad with that limited hashrate as you will most likely end up with nothing.

Why are people mining?  Well companies are mining because they can make miners for 1/3 the price they charge us.  The just sell the units to us after a month after they took the majority of the profits - just the sad reality.  People buy the miners hoping to get rich.
Some people buy the miners with delusions of grandeur.  They think, "I'm gonna make a fortune in magic money!" figuring if they buy some overpriced crap on flea-bay and plug it in, they'll be flying their own private jet to their vacation island.

Mining BTC is not a get-rich-quick scheme, plain and simple.  Can mining be profitable?  Sure it can... just like any investment has the potential to be profitable.  Do your research and make your decision.
3389  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: New setup- assume free power on: July 30, 2014, 07:39:26 PM
hey guys, i have been mulling over whether or not to try my hand at some mining as an investment for the past 6 months. If anyone could correct anything I say or tell me how my assumptions are wrong (or better yet right) please do so.

If i were to have the following setup, how profitable would it be over say 12 months:

5 Antminers S3-B5- $1948.35 USD
expected speed - 441 GH/s * 5 = 2000 Gh/s or so
$Kw/hr = $0.00 (lets assume it is and will stay free)

Time Frame   BTC Coins   USD   Power Cost (in USD)   Pool Fees (in USD)   Profit (in USD)
Hourly   0.00246606            $1.43        $0.00   $0.00                                               $1.43
Daily       0.05918551    $34.22   $0.00   $0.00                                               $34.22
Weekly   0.41429855          $239.55   $0.00   $0.00                                               $239.55
Monthly   1.77556520          $1,026.63   $0.00   $0.00                                               $1,026.63
Annually   21.60270999     $12,490.69   $0.00   $0.00                                            $12,490.69

Now this is based on the exchange rate around $550, it could hover around or go higher so the numbers towards the end of the year would be slightly higher in profit. If we assume free electricity, what do you guys think of this, is it very possible? is this based on a solo scenario, or are profitability calculator found online all based on pooling?
Online calculators use the following formula to figure out your expected earnings per day.  So, if you had those S3s mining right now:
Code:
BTC Block Reward / (Difficulty * 2**32 / hash rate / seconds in a day)
25 / (18736441558 * 2**32 / 2205000000000 / 86400) = 0.05918551

The numbers aren't based on whether or not you mine in a pool.  You also need to account for the changing difficulty - which I'm sure the numbers you've provided do not.  You've based your projections on a static difficulty rate, whereas the reality is the difficulty rate is anything but static.

You need to realize that the BTC network adjusts the difficulty every 2016 blocks to try and maintain a 10 minute block generation time.  If you look at the historical difficulty charts, you'll see that it is constantly rising... sometimes ridiculous amounts... others very little.  Most online calculators will assume a 20% increase every jump by default.  Personally, I think that's not sustainable, but that's a completely different discussion Smiley

Anyway, if I use the same numbers you've given - up front hardware costs, free power, etc.. and assume you will not get your miners until next Friday at the earliest... with a difficulty increase of 20% every 2016 blocks...

By December 18 of 2015 you will have made a 0.4755BTC return.

That's the doomsday scenario where every single difficulty increase between now and then is 20%.  If you change that number to a 10% increase...

By January 9 of 2016 you'll have made a 4.436BTC return.

As you can see, there is a significant difference.  So, what do you do with all of this?  Take it with a grain of salt and decide for yourself if you want to commit your cash to mining hardware Cheesy
3390  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 600Gh/s What's the Best Pool for the Buck on: July 30, 2014, 07:15:54 PM
Have been using Eligius but want to make the most amount of money for the small investment we have.  What are the suggested pools, and is there a place to compare the potential differences on what you can make daily on avg per pool?

Thanks!
In the long run there won't be much difference in payouts between the different pools.  Some charge fees, others don't.

You could always set your miners to load balance across a number of pools to diversify your hashing power.  Here's a good thread that shows a long-running experiment on three different pools (BTCGuild, Eligius and p2pool): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=416933.0
3391  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: Big baller on bitsolo on: July 30, 2014, 07:12:20 PM
http://bitsolo.net/pool-stats/

almost 110TH, also the guy who found the last 2 blocks is back with 14+TH
Somebody's got some pretty serious firepower pointed there, that's for sure.  One address has 160TH/s... the lucky guy who found the pool's only 2 blocks is there with 15TH/s.  That "high roller" would expect to find a block about every 6 days with that hash rate at current difficulty.  $17,000 a week payday.  Not too shabby.
3392  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: GHS To Mine Bitcoins? on: July 30, 2014, 06:51:02 PM
Good day folks Smiley I was wondering these days how much GHS it would
take to mine 2BTC a month?
At current difficulty, 2.484TH/s

Wow ok thank you for the info have a goodone.

Cheesy I think that scared him away pretty quickly Cheesy Also, keep in mind that the difficulty increases at an exponential rate. Meaning: It will be less and less profitable mining bitcoin with each difficulty adjustment. Please make sure, you understand what exponential growth is, before mining bitcoin or investing in a bitcoin mining rig.
I'm sure it did... these types of questions are typically asked by people who think they're going to get rich by leaving their 5 year old PC running in the basement and creating magic internet money.  I suppose I could have explained how I got that answer, but since the question itself shows little to no effort put in by the OP to understand how the mining process works, what role difficulty plays in the equation, or to see one of the many other threads on these forums that mention the multitude of online calculators, I figured I'd save myself the trouble and just scare him with the fact that right now he'd need nearly 2.5TH/s to mine those 2BTC a month.
3393  Economy / Computer hardware / Re: [WTB] 5 more ANT Miner S1's on: July 30, 2014, 06:09:45 PM
Just sent you a PM... I've got 2.  One of them is my "lucky" one ... it found a block on p2pool Wink

I can factory reset them for you, or send them to you as is (overclocked to 393.75 and running kano's cgminer binaries).
3394  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: GHS To Mine Bitcoins? on: July 30, 2014, 04:20:34 PM
Good day folks Smiley I was wondering these days how much GHS it would
take to mine 2BTC a month?
At current difficulty, 2.484TH/s
3395  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [OPEN] Spondoolies-Tech SP30 - Specs: 6TH/s + 0.46W/GH on: July 30, 2014, 02:37:54 PM
Well, Spondoolies-Tech has officially announced the production specs of the SP30:

July, August, September batches are 4.5TH/s @ 3000W from the wall
October and later are 5.5TH/s @ 3000W from the wall

Pricing will be adjusted to reflect the change in specs.  No actual pricing numbers have been presented yet, and their website has not been updated with stock/pricing, either.
Ouch. Not good news for those stuck with 15A/120V circuits ... they're limited to 1440W each, continuous load. Trying to get 1500W out of one is asking for trouble. The original SP30 spec called for 2400W, which would have been fine for 2 circuits.
You're exactly right... the new power requirements effectively kill off any chance of running these units residentially in the US unless you've had electrical work done.  I imagine the new power requirements will also impact hosting costs as well.  All in all pretty disappointing news from the guys at SP-Tech... losing 1.5TH/s and costing 500-600W more in power.  The numbers are still pretty good in terms of efficiency, but just nowhere near what was advertised/promised/sold.  I know the SP-Tech guys have promised compensation to those who ordered, so kudos to them for at least making an effort.
3396  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: ANTMINER S3 Discussion and Support Thread. on: July 30, 2014, 02:13:33 PM
Does anyone have an idea what can lead to this hashrate?


All chips seem to be fine. It is powered by a 1600W PSU (all 4 PCIe Cables connected), but it is only ~half of the promised hashrate.
Latest firmware is also installed...
Kind regards

Try a reboot.
That's an odd temperature difference between the two chains.
If you look at the HW (hardware errors) column, the number there is huge for the 2-day mining period. One of the chains (likely the low-temperature one) is having trouble. I have an S3 that behaves similarly and gets similar numbers; the hashrate is just slightly above 1/2 nominal (meaning 230-250).

If you reboot it, you may find that it hashes fine for a few minutes then one of the chains will start acting up again and your hashrate will drop. When this happens you'll see the HW number start going up. For my unit, I took off the case and removed the 2 externally-facing heatsinks to see if it was making good contact with the chips. It seemed fine, but I re-applied thermal compound and re-installed the heatsinks. This didn't make any difference.

What I ended up doing is UNDERCLOCKING the unit. Try 212, and lower if you have to. It can help if you power the unit down completely for a few minutes to let it cool down. I got my unit running at 395GH/s for about a day before HW errors started spiking again. I underclocked it further and it has been stable now for a few days.

YMMV.
I'm not sure I would call that HW error number huge... it's 0.034%.  It's certainly larger than what I experience on my S3s, which give me about 0.0017%.  The WU number is very telling, though.  You're getting 3525 and you should be somewhere between 6100 and 6200 at stock clocks.  Also, the extremely low temperature of chain one is an indication that something funky is happening there.  If you reboot it from the web console, does it come right back up and show all ASICs as "o" status on both chains?  If yes, then there's a power problem and the ASICs on that first chain aren't getting fed enough to hash at the specified clock rate.  Another question: if you power down the unit completely for about 5 minutes, then start it back up again, does it report proper hash rates, but then drops over time?  This would also point to a problem most likely in the DC/DC component.  What happens if you try to clock it lower (like 212.5 or even 200)?

Finally, I'd open a support ticket with Bitmain.
3397  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [OPEN] Spondoolies-Tech SP30 - Specs: 6TH/s + 0.46W/GH on: July 29, 2014, 10:15:37 PM
Well, Spondoolies-Tech has officially announced the production specs of the SP30:

July, August, September batches are 4.5TH/s @ 3000W from the wall
October and later are 5.5TH/s @ 3000W from the wall

Pricing will be adjusted to reflect the change in specs.  No actual pricing numbers have been presented yet, and their website has not been updated with stock/pricing, either.
3398  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: bitcoin mining not profitable anymore on: July 29, 2014, 09:06:11 PM
so if you have 1000 gh/s miner which is drawing 1000 watts you lose $ 3.67 per day according to cionwarz
so my question is how come hashrate is continuously increasing
why are all these people mining at a loss or am i totally missing here something

Unless you are paying 80 USD cents per kWh, I think you made a mistake in your calculation.
Err... so did you.  $0.80 per kWh translates into $19.20 a day.  To get $3.67 a day, it's $0.1529 per kWh.

No, I assumed "you lose $3.67 per day" to be the total, after adding profits. Else the title of this thread would not make sense.
Wouldn't "you lose $3.67 per day" mean "it costs you $3.67 a day to run the thing"?

The original statement is "I have a 1TH/s miner that draws 1kW of power".  We know he's using 24kW of power in a day.  If it's costing $3.67, he must be paying $0.15ish per kWh.

I am genuinely interested in how you got your number as I just can't see your interpretation of it.  Would you mind expanding for me?  Thanks!

EDIT: Never mind!  I got what you're trying to say now... your take on his statement was "At the end of the day I'm $3.67 in the hole"
So, given the current difficulty, that 1TH/s expects to earn 0.02683BTC a day, which converted to USD right now is $15.51.  So, if he's ending up at a loss of $3.67 a day, he's got to be spending $19.18 a day in power... hence your $0.80 per kWh costs.
3399  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: What PSU you use for your antminer S3? on: July 29, 2014, 08:59:33 PM
That's was great explanation, thank you for that! Smiley

I wasn't aware that I have to consider how much power actually goes to the pci-e as well.
Is there a way to check if it has that dynamic management or if not how much goes to the pci-e?
I mean what's the point of having 1000W PSU if only 200W go to the pci-e i'm gonna use right?
That's kind of why most here would state it's better to use a single rail PSU.  Let me give you a couple examples:

The Cooler Master Elite V2 550W PSU is a multi-rail unit (2 12V rails) that has 2 6+2 PCI-e connectors.
The EVGA 500B 500W PSU is a single-rail unit (1 12V rail) that also has 2 6+2 PCI-e connectors.

Just from what I wrote, you would think the Cooler Master is the better PSU... higher wattage, multi-rails.  You'd be incorrect.  That Cooler Master can only draw a max of 384W and 23A from rail 1, OR 384W and 20A from rail 2.  That's right.  You've got 384W of useable power.

The EVGA 500B on the other hand gives you a full 480W and 40A off that single rail.  All of that is useable.

So... which would you choose now?  The one that will give you 480W of useable power at 40A... or the other one?

By the way, did I mention that the EVGA is also $15 cheaper on newegg.com (after rebate), and it's bronze-rated (higher efficiency)?
3400  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: bitcoin mining not profitable anymore on: July 29, 2014, 03:24:04 PM
so if you have 1000 gh/s miner which is drawing 1000 watts you lose $ 3.67 per day according to cionwarz
so my question is how come hashrate is continuously increasing
why are all these people mining at a loss or am i totally missing here something

Unless you are paying 80 USD cents per kWh, I think you made a mistake in your calculation.
Err... so did you.  $0.80 per kWh translates into $19.20 a day.  To get $3.67 a day, it's $0.1529 per kWh.
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