It doesn't make sense that miners are shutting down now. Before the block reward halving, KNCminer reprted they would have to declare bankruptcy due to their electricity costs. At a time when Bitcoin was worth ~$480, they claimed their cost per Bitcoin was $440 (this is from memory, it might have been slightly more or less) and their electricity costs were $0.196 per kWhr. I did some math and it turns out that about $200 of that cost per Bitcoin was electricity. Difficulty has not increased significantly since their announcement so after the halving, the cost per coin for electricity would be ~ $400 and the total cost per coin ~ $640. Bitcoin is still worth more than that. Also, KNC would have been the most expensive miner out there with the cost of living in Sweden and the electricity costs considered not to mention their taxes are through the roof. Consider also this:
422107 (Main Chain) 2016-07-24 16:59:14 KnCMiner 000000000000000001b63fcce1fa4b54bdf35971ac553ed7d50f97777d2963fc
Who is shutting down!? I say it's just an anomaly and is simply an extended bout of bad luck that is indicating an apparent decline in hash rate even though all the equipment is still mining. I don't believe it is caused by miners shutting down (at least not yet).
I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from KNC's decision to declare bankruptcy. They most assuredly didn't wait until they had no choice. Their decision looks to me to be more preemptive in nature. KNC must have some gear that's worth running anymore, and they can easily turn that off as they start to unwind their operations. They don't have to have a "fire sale", though liquidation companies sometime just want to get through the process of converting assets into money (fiat, not BTC). I think there is plenty of gear being turned off due to the halving. It may not be just huge farms, but a thousand farms for which a small profit isn't interesting any more. When the easy money evaporates, some folks will just quit. If they can find a buyer, then their gear will return to service somewhere. |
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We have to get a drop slightly more negative than -6% to get below 200 difficulty. Summer heat has definitely played into my plans for hashing until September, possibly longer.
Looks to me like Bitmain can ride this wave for a while longer and hold the price on S9. Just my guess.
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Looks like you are right. The electric bills have arrived, and numerous machines have been turned off. The nextdifficulty site is projecting a -4% adjustment, with a possibility of -8%. Nothing particularly exciting on the BTC price front at $655/BTC.
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got my chips, folks!!  Wait.....Wait....Wait....Those chips are more like 16mm rather than 16nm. You can't fool me!  |
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While this is an interesting thing to consider, it seems to be pretty speculative to conclude that they will actually do anything regarding chip sales. When/If/How they sell chips and miners get built seems way longer term and unrelated to how much the network hash rate they seem to have over a 24 hour period. As suchmoon said, many days would be more accurate, though still speculative in terms of chip sales. |
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While I can't decipher the Chineese web page, my simple view of it is that it is priced in CNY. In other words, the price is a fixed fiat price, and the BTC amount can "float". My recollection is that the English pages that used to be up for the S9 had a fixed BTC price. Unfortunately I can't confirm my memory since the English pages appear to be gone.
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Besides, if you want to replace the 20PH with S9 hardware, you'll need to purchase at least 1700 of them. Even with a discount, that will be significant money to send off to Bitmain. I wonder what kind of terms you get if you offer to buy 1700 S9 units from Bitmain?
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It may be that we are starting to see an effect of the halving on difficulty. Both bitcoinwisdom (-1.98%) and nextdifficulty (-2.1%) are showing difficulty decreases. We'll have to see how it actually works over the next 12-13 days, but this might actually be "real".
BTC price still at $673.
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Hi All,
Can you use 14 Gauge extension cords (max amp 15) with these S9's. I know the instructions say that these machines are 20 amps so i wanted to see what the rest of you guys were doing extension cord-wise. Thanks a bunch,
MM333
You might want elaborate on this just a bit. When I hear "extension cord", I tend to think of the a "house power" kind of cord which would usually be 120V (USA) or 220V (Europe). In which case the "20 Amp" reference might not make much sense. If you are thinking of the PCIe cords from the PSU to the miner, then the 20 AMPs makes more sense. Besides the 14Gauge cable, the pins need to be high quality, fit tight, and have all the pins wired with the 14 Gauge wire. I saw one ad, that advertised 12 Gauge wire, but when you looked closely, it only actually wire one of the +12V and one Ground. That would have been a disaster not because of the wire gauge, but the fact that all the power was going though one pin effectively. |
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So, the question in my mind is: How closely will the deployment of the S9's that are for sale match the shutdown of less efficient gear that should fall off the network? The halving must have rendered at least some gear unprofitable to run. The price of BTC doesn't seem to be going anywhere for the moment. This current difficulty period is all at 12.5BTC reward. The only unknown for the next 2 weeks is BTC price, and that appears moderately stable.
I wonder the extent to which Bitmain has been replacing S7's with equivalent hash (i.e. stable hashrate), and not stable power consumption (2-3x hashrate increase).
Thanks again for running this, Phil.
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With the recent runup in Bitcoin price, I find that an S5 earns about $1/day NET of electric at the electric rate I am currently at.
No idea how long that will last, but on the other hand there are other areas of the US that have somewhat better rates for us SMALL miners than where I ended up at.
I too have to question this claim of $1/day in BTC revenue, much less profit after electric. If you are basing your figures on bitcoinwisdom, as I have in the past, be aware that it's still using a BTC reward of 25BTC/block. Try a couple of other calculators and you'll likely find that the revenue (i.e. before electric costs are subtracted), is more like 85 cents/day. |
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........
I guess that's something that I've never really understood, money is money who cares whether it comes from the hobby miner or the massive Bitcoin farmer? That would be disappointing if a avalon stopped selling to the public.
The primary reason is that the after-sale support is distinctly different for individual purchasers and large installations. Individuals many times have problems that really have little to do with the actual mining hardware. Could be Power Supply, Internet access, cooling, whatever. They also have to worry about individual repair and parts replacement. Most of the issues go away when it's a larger enterprise. |
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May guess is likely WAY too high......
Looks like we could "coast in" to just about zero for an adjustment!
Bitcoin Difficulty: 213,398,925,331
Estimated Next Difficulty: 213,371,430,168 (-0.01%)
Adjust time: After 103 Blocks, About 17.2 hours
Hashrate(?): 1,565,861,149 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated: 1:55 (5.4 minutes ago)
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I am 90% sure that the 50TH Smart Miner 3.0 (used) is a complete fraud. The specs for it are wildly optimistic, and completely unsupported by any other reports.
If it was real, it would absolutely crush the S9 in terms of cost per TH, as well as efficiency.
Have we seen this scam before?
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One small item to consider. I am not 100% sure what block reward is being used by bitcoinwisdom on it's "Bitcoin Difficulty" page. When you drill down into the "Bitcoin Calculator" page, it still fills in a 25BTC block reward. You can obviously over-ride that, but it can be a bit misleading.
For profit/loss calculations, you might want to consider using the coinwarz.com calculator. It's obvious as to what it's using.
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Everything depends on cooling, power costs, backup, and area available. Your area should be neat, as to make cooling as effective as possible. You'll want cheap electricity in a cooler place, so you won't use as much power on cooling, but still need especially cheap electricity. Cool and cheap is a huge factor, which is why many farms are located in Washington state in the US. You'll want extended backup to keep things going in case of power going out; it takes time to shut miners down safely. There's many more factors like cost of miners and what model, but assuming it's an S9 farm with 5-cent electricity or less, in an ideal enviroment, it should work.
While I agree with 80% of what is said, I think any focus on backup is largely wasted money. There is very little risk to a miner from an unplanned shutdown. Yes, mining time is lost when the lights go out, but that's it. If you have unstable power with frequent outages, then you have a different problem, that backup is unlikely to solve. Mining is does not need a Data Center environment. Extensive backup and redundancy in power isn't free, and is unlikely to pay for itself. I am basing this on the general reliability of of the USA electrical grid. Your environment may be different. |
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can any oldtimers shed some light on what happened with the previous halving? did quite a few people walk away or was the difficulty static compared to the current arms race?
Personally I cannot. I would however be wary of the first halving experiences. Bit was massively smaller, and the investment in mining was much smaller, both in hashrate and monetary investment. I expect that there was essentially NO commercial mining operations. As best I can tell (I joined in mid-2013), home/hobby mining on GPU's would have been king. There were no ASIC's. In other words, Bitcoin was a small boutique hobby, and not the huge enterprise it is today. Obviously other folks may have a different, possibly better, view. |
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... And now it's gone totally wonky, with one board showing 33 chips and the other showing 43. Looks like I have some more work to do!
Can you revert to the original Bitmain setup? I'd try back there to see if it's related to your changes, or something else. |
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If you have the 2.6.14 firmware on your SP20, then it does have an option for extra nonce contained within.
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All s9's sold out except batch 8
Is their any difference between batches except for price? I got late to the game so missed out on buying the first released which were probably sold out before rolling off the assembly line.  Yes, in addition to price, the hashrate of the Batches may be different. The biggest reason that Batch #8 is lower priced is that it has a lower hashrate. At least that's my opinion for the reason. While Batch #9 is presently sold out, Batch #8 is a slightly "better buy" in that the reduction in hashrate is offset by a slightly larger reduction in price. Not by much, but a tiny bit. You can figure BTC/TH to see a small difference (in favor of Batch #8) at the present time. |
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