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July 12, 2024, 01:54:57 PM *
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3481  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Fighting Game Betting on: July 12, 2021, 10:30:24 AM
The games that have the best possibilities are those that are currently top in the eSports as some people around said. This is becoming really big in terms of market size, with growths that resemble those of Facebook and WhatsApp at its best. DOTA 2 and League of Legends seem to be the most played in tournaments with prices in the range of million USD. Betting should follow and you will no doubt be able to find reputable sites soon if they are not already there. Perhaps having a look at the organisers webs could lead you there.
3482  Other / Off-topic / Re: Big win Argentina, Big win Messi. on: July 12, 2021, 10:23:24 AM
An excellent game by Argentina. It think they should be paying Barca for leaving Messi in such a perfect shape and well rested after doing little during the Spanish league and letting Athletico win. I guess that Messi gets much more tv time and glamour winning the America cup than winning the Spanish league  Grin Unfortunately, this win does not solve the Argentina perpetual crisis and political problems ... "Panem et circenses" as the old Romans say, that may keep the people happy for a weekend before going to the same old problems.

A joke: Do you know how to tell an Argentinian spy? - Just because he will have a shirt saying "I am the best spy on the world"  Grin

Congrats guys, none of this should be taken seriously.
3483  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: You got a pifzer ? Then you can be eligible for lottery in Poland. on: July 12, 2021, 09:30:54 AM
From a mathematical point of view, this is a very clear case for a rational decision making process  Grin

- Evaluate your chances of being seriously affected by covid.
- Evaluate your chances of getting a nasty secondary effect from the jabs (growing a third arm or getting a trombo).
- Evaluate your chances of winning that lottery.

If you are young, you might choose not to get the jab. If you are old, you most likely want to go for it. The funny thing is that the chances of winning the lottery only have a minimal effect so this is all marketing.
3484  Economy / Gambling discussion / Gambling or playing? on: July 12, 2021, 09:25:48 AM
I am sure most of you have played videogames of one short or another and many have noticed that may offer gambling in-game options - I am thinking mostly of Role Games and MMPORGs -  like implementing a casino or some short of fortune game. As an old example, Fallout New Vegas has an in-built game called Caravans, but you can play blackjack, roulette, etc... Newer games that are free to play or cheap to play offer lotteries that award prices such as unique or rare in-game items...

There is currently quite an effort on using these techniques in games that should not be about gambling or chances playing and some people may find undesirable. Is this going too far? What type of effect may this game on underaged players?
3485  Economy / Economics / Re: At least it was something great on: July 12, 2021, 09:00:54 AM
Most people in the world do not get the chance of doing anything remarkable in their lives. Many may do things that are significant for them, but usually, chances of doing something that will change humanity, its culture and its way of thinking are remote. People involved in the French Revolution, artists in the Renaissance, philosophers in ancient Athens, ... they did things that left the world changed.

Most of us have some bitcoin. A few have a lot of bitcoin. Just think that for any reason, in 5 years or 10 years, something happened that dropped bitcoin value or made the network unusable or whatever event or combination of events made it impossible to use it any longer. As far as I am concerned, I can say "I was there and, at least, it was something great and I was part of it". When bitcoin fades, the way people think about currency, self-governance,  trust in a system will have changed forever. And you will have been part of it and be able to say "I did something great and it changed the world".
I'll be honest, based on my surroundings I don't think Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies have been able to make that big an impact on the "payments system". Yes the level of adoption has increased, a lot of people know about bitcoin and invest in cryptocurrencies now and they have become a big market for hedgers, arbitrageurs, traders, and Investors but at the same time in the payment stream, except for EL Salvador there is nothing we can boast a lot about at this point of time. But yes the technology of blockchain is really something that has changed our lives forever.


You are forgetting about something: mindsets, psychology, philosophy and culture. Even if the "experiment" that is bitcoin fails in economic terms, you have made millions of people more conscious of how money works, what is happening with their fiat reserves and how is actually possible to free yourself from being played with.

Another historic example - many railways went bankrupt, yet we still have them and we still use railways as a means of transport. It was the first time people of moderate means could actually leave their surroundings at a cheap price and discover that there was something else in the world apart from their villages. That changed culture (people of modest means did not vacation before) and made people more free. That is my point, this changes everything regardless of the economic incentives.
3486  Economy / Economics / Re: What is better - cryptocurrency trading or investing? on: July 12, 2021, 08:52:17 AM
My personal opinion about any kind of trading is that if you have anything that remotely works you will not ask this question and you will certainly will not publish a youtube video "showing others how easy it is", etc... (not that you have done, just example). Other than that, it is the fastest way to loosing your money. Most trading platforms have to include disclaimers such as "most of our clients take loses" and the like - you surely get the point. Investing in crypto, as such, is not that different from trading except that you will trade much less. The chances of success are slightly better.

But the main point is something else: investing in crypto should be taken as investing in venture capital. Very high rewards for just a few projects, 100% loss for most and extreme variability in results. The only difference is that you normally have liquidity.
3487  Economy / Economics / Cybersecurity workers shortage in USA on: July 12, 2021, 08:47:04 AM
Recent news in various outlets are pointing out to companies in the US that have been victims of ransomware and other attacks not being able to get the help they need to get back on-line. Particularly, hacks that infect software companies that then spread the threats to other companies (as the recent Solarwinds which affected a number of major software providers). In my view, the equivalent to this is to be outnumbered by an enemy army - loosing a war because you do not have enough qualified soldiers.

https://searchsecurity.techtarget.com/news/252494362/10-of-the-biggest-cyber-attacks

Europe & USA are not taking this seriously enough and are not regulating strongly enough the requirements. You may argue that these are private companies, but the fact is that they have an effect on the system creating a "call effect" to further attacks and creating caos in the economy.
3488  Economy / Economics / Re: At least it was something great on: July 11, 2021, 12:54:00 AM
--snip-- Just think that for any reason, in 5 years or 10 years, something happened that dropped bitcoin value or made the network unusable or whatever event or combination of events made it impossible to use it any longer. As far as I am concerned, I can say "I was there and, at least, it was something great and I was part of it". When bitcoin fades, the way people think about currency, self-governance,  trust in a system will have changed forever. And you will have been part of it and be able to say "I did something great and it changed the world".
There there.

I don't know what is triggering your existential crisis but I find it very defeatist to think that you can just sigh away on a future thinking" I was there". The premise that Bitcoin will fade in coming years is something that those at this forum shouldn't accept in any scenario. The biggest tech companies are already deciding how an average human's life plays out. The banks are already deciding that they'll track your expenses and incomes from life till birth with CBDCs. The only thing that gives you an option is this decentralized network of peers called Bitcoin.

If it ever comes to the stage that it is fading, I think the renaissance moment for everyone on this forum will be to take a stand for liberty and run a full node and a miner..Smiley I mean the price of Bitcoin doesn't have to be 100K for the network to continue and survive. The developments can always continue and we can always have Bitcoin.

So stop being so gloomy buddy, you may still have your moment in the sun.


Not an existential crisis at all, just the knowledge that existence is finite and that it is nice to know that somehow mine contributed to the future of humanity even if was an atom size contribution. I am aware that most people do not think in those terms and that many will focus their answers in the hypothesis (not the premise at all) that bitcoin could cease or become irrelevant - which is not at all the topic - but I am not writing for them.

I am not being gloomy, it is exactly the opposite, I am happy that ... I am here doing this, and I am happy whether I personally get richer or everything fades. Some answers to the post lead me to think that some people do get the point, others don´t.
3489  Economy / Economics / Re: Understanding marketcaps and valuations on: July 11, 2021, 12:46:38 AM
You create a company with venture capital. The owners and the team have 100% of the shares and there is no real valuation of the company at that point. Your company is doing great in growth, but, as usual, it is burning through money. The owners decide to raise more money. It could by by floating, IPO or a financing round - does not matter for our example.
Valuation must first be built buy a team with dedicated effort and fund sourcing to keep the dream burning. But after creating this venture capital how would this each participant take a share in ROI.

Quote
The owner manage to get a deal selling 5% of the company for 50M USD. The valuation of the full company at this point, since there is only one deal, is set at 5% for 50M, thus 100% (all the company) is valued at 1 Billion. That´s it, it is "an unicorn".

You have probably noticed that this is not fully true. This means that someone has effectively valued the company at 1B and paid a 5% of the share at that price, but this does not mean that anyone would be ready to pay 1B for it or that other people would offer the same valuation.
You mean the valuation depends on the bid price of the biggest investor at the moment how about the other small players don't their share add value to the market capitalization as well?



Mmm.. more or less. Valuation is not really value, but rather the price that someone puts to having a share on a company or project. Value is the intrinsic utility or the increment in utility over that of the raw components (value added). So the team, the community, the apps, even the hype builds value, but not the valuation.

So I mean that assigning a price to a company or project based only of the highest bid for just a partial acquisition is not really correct, that is irrespective of small or large players.

... everyone will start to look at the company as a failure and, at this point, attracting new investors will be very difficult.

Certainly, that is a problem in these cases, because many times the buyer includes a clause by which the stock cannot be later sold to others at a lower price.
3490  Local / Servicios / Re: Más presión sobre Binance on: July 09, 2021, 11:03:25 PM
Pues si, yo como tal no tengo cuenta hay pero me inmagino que los usuarios en China de seguro sufrieron una verdadera patada a las b$%& pero nada que un VPN no resuelva, debemos recordar que China esta a punto de sacar su propia moneda digital, supongo que ven el BTC como una amenaza a su moneda... pero al final esto queda en "Solo el tiempo lo dira"...

Me da a mi que con China y lo que llaman "El Gran Cortafuegos Chino", en ingles "The Great Firewall" que hace referencia a la Gran Muralla China como broma, está pensado para que el estado tenga un control bastante potente sobre que se ve y donde. Las VPN por supuesto están bien vigiladas y si son las típicas me da a mi de que ellos las bloquean antes de que tu puedas encontrarlas si vives por allí. No se si hay alguna manera tecnológica de saltarse esto pero incluso si lo consigues corres un riesgo personal importante.
3491  Economy / Economics / Understanding marketcaps and valuations on: July 09, 2021, 10:53:25 PM
Valuations of this kind must be carefully understood. For example, you call unicorns to new companies that reach a valuation of 1 Billion. That does not mean that someone has actually paid 1 billion for it, as the fact of reaching a marketcap of 1B does not really mean that someone would buy 100% of the project for that price.

How does this really work then? Easy to understand with this example:

You create a company with venture capital. The owners and the team have 100% of the shares and there is no real valuation of the company at that point. Your company is doing great in growth, but, as usual, it is burning through money. The owners decide to raise more money. It could by by floating, IPO or a financing round - does not matter for our example.

The owner manage to get a deal selling 5% of the company for 50M USD. The valuation of the full company at this point, since there is only one deal, is set at 5% for 50M, thus 100% (all the company) is valued at 1 Billion. That´s it, it is "an unicorn".

You have probably noticed that this is not fully true. This means that someone has effectively valued the company at 1B and paid a 5% of the share at that price, but this does not mean that anyone would be ready to pay 1B for it or that other people would offer the same valuation.

This is the same when a project floats a small amount of crypto. The price may get very high if there is not that much liquidity and many people want to a have a bit, but saying that is the real value is a long shot.
3492  Economy / Economics / Re: The trend of prices is still upward, any hope for downward? on: July 09, 2021, 12:14:25 AM
Short answer... if US inflation is at 4% and a large part of it is due to commodities and construction goods, prices are likely to grow even more. COVID disrupted production strongly and until things go back to normal there is no way global commodity prices are lowering. This is despite China mobilising their strategic commodities reserves. The fact is that not everything in the economy can be solved by printing massive amounts of monopoly money.

This is not about the governments doing something, it is about the market rebuilding the offer side and that takes years.
3493  Economy / Economics / The first rule of investing is saving on: July 08, 2021, 09:53:19 AM
It is fairly obvious, but there are people out there that have written 200 pages self-help books and made a fortune out of them by simply stating this simple fact of life: "you can invest your savings. If you ain´t got any, you ain´t gonna invest". (I admit you could argue that you can borrow but still nobody ain´t lending ya if you ain´t gonna givvet baksh).

The basic concepts that will save you a 15 bucks book:

- you invest so that your money works for you. Even if you cannot drop your job, you can still live a bit better with extra income.
- Investing is sacrificing something today to get something tomorrow. This is just a definition. You save x today because you want 2x tomorrow or in year or whenever.
- The first step to invest is saving part of your income. No savings, no future.
- If you have credits unpaid (other than mortgages or other asset backed credits), you pay those first because they charge you a lot.

And from here we could start speaking on how are you going to save regularly, if it is going to be 10% of your income, or 5% or 50%, how are you going to learn about investing, etc...
3494  Economy / Economics / Re: Why should i invest in bitcoin or other cryptos ? on: July 08, 2021, 09:35:55 AM
Many people are arguing that investments cannot be compared. Actually, they can. Bitcoin is relatively volatile, limited, has been around only for a while,... you should compare it in those terms with alternative investments and even with alternative crypto.

I have my own theory about how bitcoin could be considered a decentralised business, but that is just my thinking, what is certain is that you can invest in bitcoin as a network and get returns by investing in mining operations if you whish to treat this as a revenue generating investment. You have a budget and you decide what works best for you. Bitcoin does not provide dividends, as gold does not provide dividends nor orange juice concentrate stock produces anything. If you look to speculate with bitcoin, gold, or commodities is just the same: speculation.

This forum does not seek to convince you of investing in crypto. Its main purpose is to have dialogue in the community, disseminate information and, as a possibly unintended effect, allow business. Having said that, there are good reasons why some of us have crypto, but you need to do some research of your own to find them. I am not here to sell it to you.
3495  Economy / Economics / Re: Will Bitcoin be infinite? on: July 08, 2021, 09:23:45 AM
If I am getting you right, you mean infinite in time or in value? Nothing man-made is infinite in time. Bitcoin like any other creation will live for a time and then become obsolete, change into something else or simply disappear as everything in history except human stupidity - but that was given by the gods  Wink I understand your question is merely philosophical, in practice bitcoin will last for a period of time, but it may be quite a long period indeed. Being first matters a lot in terms of trust and community and bitcoin was the first reasonably successful attempt at creating a decentralised digital mean of exchange.

If you mean infinite in value... well, just do not take The Simpsons as financial advice. Even if they do not have a disclaimer about it.

3496  Economy / Economics / At least it was something great on: July 08, 2021, 09:10:05 AM
Most people in the world do not get the chance of doing anything remarkable in their lives. Many may do things that are significant for them, but usually, chances of doing something that will change humanity, its culture and its way of thinking are remote. People involved in the French Revolution, artists in the Renaissance, philosophers in ancient Athens, ... they did things that left the world changed.

Most of us have some bitcoin. A few have a lot of bitcoin. Just think that for any reason, in 5 years or 10 years, something happened that dropped bitcoin value or made the network unusable or whatever event or combination of events made it impossible to use it any longer. As far as I am concerned, I can say "I was there and, at least, it was something great and I was part of it". When bitcoin fades, the way people think about currency, self-governance,  trust in a system will have changed forever. And you will have been part of it and be able to say "I did something great and it changed the world".
3497  Local / Español (Spanish) / Re: El PSOE prepara un Bitcoin público on: July 08, 2021, 08:56:53 AM
La verdad no me extraña, es obvio que de alguna manera quieren volver a tomar el control que tanto se les ha salido de las manos, y por como están planteando todo parece que están bastante desesperados, lo malo de esto es que habrá muchas personas que si llevarán a cabo esos planes pero por falta de conocimiento, lo que se me ocurre es que puedan hacer un tipo de publicidad bien fuerte para que las personas aprendan y no caigan, lo que no entiendo es por qué tantas ganas de controlar esta actividad? cuando son países con economías tan estables,( llamo estables en comparación con la entropía económica que existe en Venezuela), lo único que  si controlan en Venezuela es la actividad de minería de BTC.

Tal vez a nivel económico tienen otro tipo de problemas, no sé como irá lo de la separación de España con su otro Estado, puede que también esto esté influyendo. Y lo que menos me agrada es que venga de una propuesta de tipo "Socialista", por experiencia propia ojalá que en Europa no caigan en la trampa triste del socialismo.
Lo que pasa es que estamos en un punto crucial de la historia, en estos momentos hay una guerra invisible entre la centralización y la descentralización, los gobiernos por obvias razones quieren tener todos los hilos, el problema con esto es que es casi una certeza que abusaran ese poder una vez obtenido, es por esto que las redes sociales casi no tienen regulaciones, en las obras literarias distópicas la vigilancia a la cual el estado tiene sometidos a sus ciudadanos es obviamente inhumana, sin embargo gracias a las redes sociales no tienen que llegar a tales extremos dado que la gente comparte todos sus datos por su propia voluntad.

Lo mismo quieren hacer con el dinero, desde el nacimiento de la civilización ha habido actividad económica que escapa su supervisión, una criptomoneda controlada por el estado en un mundo donde las monedas descentralizadas no existen como bitcoin les permitiría toda clase de abusos, como ejemplo basta ver lo que paso con las protestas en Hong Kong contra China, en el cual las cuentas bancarias de los protestantes y sus fondos que habían obtenido por donaciones fueron cerradas, en un mundo en el que solo existan monedas así cualquier disidencia puede ser destruida con unos clics matando de hambre a sus participantes independientemente de si sus reclamos sociales son legítimos o no.

Muy bien expuesto. Además está plenamente respaldado por datos: La UE realizo unos sondeos preliminares para conocer la opinion de los ciudadanos de a pie sobre un posible Euro digital y la mayor preocupación resultó ser... la privacidad. No ya que un estado absolutista o distópico pueda bloquear las cuentas de forma automatizada (creo q en USA las cuentas se bloquean sin mucha dificultad si es tema de drogas), sino q la UE sepa cuando y que compran todos sus ciudadanos en cada momento.

Tal como dices, yo no me fio un pelo de los políticos ... vamos q si les dejas gestionar una lata de sardinas, tienes q estar todo el rato mirando la lata o las sardinas desaparecen.
3498  Economy / Economics / Re: FOLLOW THIS RULES TO BECOME RICH on: July 07, 2021, 06:17:24 PM
Being rich comes from many sources, including being born with it, being lucky and being in the right place at the right time. If Bill Gates had been born in Sudan, black and woman he could not have said his famous sentence about being born poor is a a question of luck, dying poor is your fault or something like that. The fact is that there are situations in which there are no opportunities and no matter how many rules you apply, you are doomed to fail.

Anyway, becoming rich, whatever that means to you, is not about following 25 rules or 30 or 10. In fact, some people just do something that works over and over and that works well because they are excellent at executing that plan.

3499  Economy / Economics / Re: Vietnam Becomes Latest Country to Turn to Crypto on: July 07, 2021, 03:09:09 PM
The problem with this declaration is that it encompasses a number of buzz words that also should be interpreted in the right context. Vietnam has gone trough a very expansive stage of their economy in the last years, with massive increases in value to local companies. The government possibly wants to keep up this momentum and use it to attract foreign investment, so all this mentions of bitcoin, crypto mixed with other buzzwords should be an amber flag for people and taken with a pinch of salt.
3500  Economy / Economics / Re: The One World Currency: Is it Bitcoin? on: July 07, 2021, 03:00:20 PM
bitcoin is not really intended to become the "only money" at all. As said by other posters, that it technically nearly impossible, not just for the limitation of the network, but because the mechanism to float the value of goods in different countries is nowadays solved by having all currencies float respective to each other. If that did not exist, you would need to change the price of goods almost every minute in every place.

Bitcoin can however become the dominant way of transferring value for transactions of certain value, across borders, international commerce,... There is no particular need to pay for your coffee with bitcoin as there is no need to pay for it with gold bullion coins.
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