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3541  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 21, 2018, 04:15:46 PM
You are all wasting your time.  It is only possible to build usury schemes that centralize transaction validators through economy of scale, and those then turn into federated chains/permissioned ledgers by default.  

Is that right?

So let's say all of us idiots bought into your bullshit, but invested in Bitcoin anyway. And we road the wave all the way up to full federated ledger status. We then sell all our bitcoin at $1M/btc and buy up 10,000X more physical silver than you'll ever own in your lifetime.

Thus we outsmart you again. Checkmate fool.
3542  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 20, 2018, 10:32:23 PM
I see the price is rising with declining volume since the recent low of ~$9200

Price going up, volume going down.....

Looking at Bitfinex 6hr chart.

What is your interpretation of this ?

Less demand at higher prices.

Yep, I edited my post above to include this little nugget :

The bear is back....

If you are so convinced, let's see you short this market.

Money meet mouth.  Cheesy
3543  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 20, 2018, 02:19:19 PM
On another note: https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-will-totally-collapse-even-takes-100-years-nobel-prize-winner/

Omg, things that exist eventually (given enough time) disappear!!! Thank god for Noble prize Economists enlightening us about the universe.

If Bitcoin lasted the next 100 years, that would be about double the life expectancy of almost all modern fiat currencies. I guess economists would view that as a failure? /s
3544  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 20, 2018, 04:11:30 AM
Bitcoin has the development effort behind it. It is going to smash it out of the park this year.

I certainly hope so

Oh no we can't have that. Otherwise what will the BCash and shitcoin shills troll us with?
3545  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 04:44:33 PM
The Amazon rumor was just the catalyst for the conversation, the point remains that BTC is not, at this time, a good fit for retail.

As far as the big A goes, I would be quite surprised if "Amazoncoin" were not in development.

Agree.

Although you can buy pretty much whatever you want from Overstock.com with crypto. Even with BCash and Litecoin. It's not an Amazon, but they have enough wide selection of goods for the average person. I wouldn't be surprised if/when Overstock.com integrates their own Lightning Network.
3546  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 04:31:20 PM
Bitcoin is very secure and decentralized, while being slow, expensive and annoying.  I am good with that.  I like it that way, but I have had to admit that this does open market space for a solution that makes different compromises that favor speed and low fees.

You're missing one thing though. If Amazon isn't integrating Bitcoin payments now, then they sure as hell aren't going to do it for an altcoin. Speed and low fees alone isn't the deciding factor. Because if it was, Amazon would have jumped on Bitcoin integration all the way back in 2012 or 2013 when fees were lower.

The reason is political. Major banks through Visa, MC, and PayPal have exclusive contractual obligations with major merchants, and they can change the terms of deals or even make it politically 'difficult' for Amazon to integrate what they perceive as a 'competitor' payment system.

It's also substantial marketcap size and stability, and extremely low volatility. No crypto has achieved these things yet.
3547  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 04:03:31 PM
Look at the price on 12/4. Then look at the massive volume pump starting on 12/5.

Then look again at the price where we are today. Pretty much the same as what it was on 12/4.

It makes complete sense the price is sitting where we are right now. The whale(s) responsible for the entire Dec/Jan PnD is out.
3548  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 03:26:44 PM
I haven't watched that movie, no. Is it worth the time?

Yes, very good movie. Performances all around are fantastic.
3549  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 03:00:56 PM
Which is why it's all the more important to identify tokens that function as equity in a company with realistic and reaonable future prospects. The (overall) altcoin market is pretty insane for sure though. There are still people who believe in BCC apparently.

Have you ever seen an ICO company that says "There will only ever be [X] number of these ICO tokens issued. Each one represents a VALID and LEGALLY DEFENSIBLE equity ownership share of the company."

I haven't.
No, I haven't either. But equity hasn't always been regulated either. Regulation adapts to reality, not the other way around. Again, altcoins are extremely risky and require a lot of time and know-how to even have a chance of making profits without losing it down the road. But that doesn't mean that they're all bad.

Stocks carry very similar risks as well, despite being regulated. The lack of regulation is simultaneously a threat as well as an opportunity. It depends on the individual which aspect will outweigh the other.

Even if one of these ICO companies actually makes it and starts making money (which I highly doubt), the tokens as equity would be meaningless. There is likely no chance they would honor that. And even if they did honor it (which they are not legally obligated to), expect MASSIVE dillution.

Remember that one scene near the end of the movie 'The Social Network', where Eduardo gets massively diluted out of his majority stake in Facebook? Yeah, it would be something like that but worse. "Each ICO token is now worth 1/1 millionth of an equity share of this company." And no amount of lawyering-up would save you.
3550  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called) on: January 19, 2018, 02:55:38 PM
Why would anyone use Bitcoin Cash over any of the other fast transaction coins? I just don't understand this.

It's Bitcoin.

No, Bitcoin is decentralized.
3551  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 02:35:44 PM
Which is why it's all the more important to identify tokens that function as equity in a company with realistic and reaonable future prospects. The (overall) altcoin market is pretty insane for sure though. There are still people who believe in BCC apparently.

Have you ever seen an ICO company that says "There will only ever be [X] number of these ICO tokens issued. Each one represents a VALID and LEGALLY DEFENSIBLE equity ownership share of the company."

I haven't.
3552  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 02:29:17 PM
Another problem is that the newb crypto kiddies think that what we saw back in March/April 2017, that we'll see happen again. Where a relatively unknown crypto like ETH could be bought for $2, and it'll eventually get pumped to $1000 making them rich. And actually, EVERY altcoin and token got pumped to the moon. All of them.

That to me was a black swan event, that will likely NEVER happen again. The odds are stacked against it. But now they are going to buy these now-grossly overvalued altcoins and ICO tokens, thinking it will happen again. They could really give a shit what these coins and tokens supposedly are for, or what they are reported to do.
3553  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 02:19:40 PM
You are 100% right with everything, except the conclusion. The LN establishment as altcoin killer will not happen overnight, it's a process that will have markings on the wall as the journey unfolds. There will be plenty of time for anyone reasonable to exit the altcoins in time. Meanwhile, they are the vehicle to increase your BTC stash, which is in essence what Dabs said. I absolutely don't see anything wrong with it.

Except that the majority, like 90+%, won't increase their BTC stash with altcoin trading. They'll actually lose money, and would have just been better off buying bitcoin and holding it instead. The [altcoin]/btc ratio trailing downward on the majority of altcoins proves my point.
3554  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 02:02:03 PM
I consider the altcoin market as an easily accessible venture capital market, and I have significant positions in some of them.

The overwhelming majority is certainly trash and I wouldn't touch it with a pole, but I don't think that anybody can rationally explain away all of the altcoins.

I prefer staying out of "Bitcoin clones" and "next-gen Bitcoins" though (smallest positions for good measure) - mostly because there are no fundamentals to analyze; while investing in seeds that can realistically be achieved and sustained with predictable lower-end returns and potentials when thrown into a portfolio.
Granted that's a lot more work than just holding Bitcoins would be, but I also find it more interesting by virtue of keeping an eye on the entire beast that is blockchain and cryptocurrencies, which I do believe will become equities 2.0.
I would be quite surprised if traditional stock markets were still relevant a few decades from now, and the fact that common people at least have the access to VC is also quite big (which is something that crowdfunding platforms completely failed to accomplish due to their outrageous fees and crappy policies).

The problem I have with altcoins, is this:

Once Bitcoin established itself as a near-perfect digital gold 2.0 like store of value, as well as something that can be used online as a currency, then investing in anything else trying to do the same thing (i.e., an also ran) made zero logical sense.

If people want to gamble with also-rans that's fine. But there is a deep seated fallacy in comparing a fly-by-night project that all it has to show for itself is a single anonymous dev, an online token (which as been pre-mined and pre-allocated to hell), and a back-of-the-napkin scribbled future roadmap as even being in the same league as Bitcoin.

I also have a real issue with also-ran cryptos that claim to have solutions to problems that don't exist, or will never really exist. App-based tokens. History is literally littered with such IT projects that went nowhere and did nothing. Especially pay-to-play apps, that will compete with other apps that are free and do the same thing. That is beyond absurd.

You think that if an ICO company that had a Twitter-like app came out, but had a token that they made you buy in order to use it first (for "fuel" or some shit), that they could in any way compete with Twitter (a free app)? No. Fucking. Way.
3555  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 01:21:56 PM
Was just coming here to pontificate on that. Cause I'm, like, REALLY bored. Anyone else? And also wtf? A lot of us have our net value fluctuate by more almost daily than most people make in a year, and the only reaction is... boredom?

I came to the conclusion a while back that you have to feel that way to become truly wealthy in this life. You have to become comfortable with that feeling. It's what the rich must feel every single day. The poor and the middle class can't handle that kind of volatility, that much fluctuation in their paper wealth. So they cash out at the first sign of a small profit, or the first sign of a dip. Which is exactly what the establishment want them to do.
3556  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 12:37:12 PM
You guys must be really bored since your engaging our resident town fool. I've been guilty of that myself from time to time.

Don't feed the troll.
3557  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 11:45:11 AM
Hey kids, never forget that conspiracy theorists are completely nuts. Until they aren't.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/01/18/gop-lawmakers-demand-alarming-memo-on-fisa-abuses-be-made-public.html
3558  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 11:41:05 AM


What if I told you that people thought the same thing in July 2013?  Grin
3559  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 02:41:47 AM

Weiss and his father performed independent financial analyses on banks for many years.  They were conservative in their appraisals, and by that I mean that didn't count squishy items like "goodwill" for very much.  They published their own "Weiss ratings" for thousands of banks.  You could check on any single bank you were interested in, or subscribe to their service.  They sold the business but I guess the son still speaks on behalf of the business.  It was a legit business so this interests me.

Thank you very helpful.  I will give some further thought to this as it is an element missing from the market to date.

Take with a grain of salt.

I'm sure as an investment their rating system will give Bitcoin a C- or D, everything else will get an F.

And the market analysts will say, "See? Told ya so." and pat themselves on the back.
3560  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2018, 01:56:50 AM
First stage: Denial.

Second stage: Anger.

 Smiley

Am I a bad person for finding mirth in the self inflicted misfortune of others?

To be honest, I'm downright fkn irritated/annoyed with people who are passing over Bitcoin, the most awesome thing that is staring them in right in the face, for other shitcoins and scams.

So no, no sympathy, fk them.
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