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3561  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: June 12, 2014, 08:00:49 AM
I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?   


Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Out of nowhere? I attribute the October '13 runup to increased confidence after the SR bust.

Maybe we should bust SR2?
3562  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][AUR] Auroracoin - a cryptocurrency for Iceland on: June 12, 2014, 07:11:10 AM
It's nice to hear that someone is taking the reins on this coin.

However, I think it still suffers from the main problem it's had since the beginning, which is a lack of trasparency in the airdrop distribution.  Baldur has appeared to act in a trustworthy manner, but it is not ideal to have to trust a single, unknown entity.  Surely there would have been someone in the cryptocurrency community that is both well-known/trusted and would have been willing to preserve Baldur's anonymity who could have overseen or at least audited the airdrop.

Just out of curiosity: how excactly would you audit the airdrop?
3563  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Bitcoin Wallet Recovery Services - for forgotten wallet password on: June 12, 2014, 06:56:07 AM
Thi is service flawed by design... lol for that idea

I think you're jumping to conclusions, see my previous post.
3564  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Bitcoin Wallet Recovery Services - for forgotten wallet password on: June 12, 2014, 06:55:16 AM
I am actually more confident that it is a scam after your post

The service can't scam you if you do it right: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=240779.msg2564277#msg2564277

If you're too lazy to wrap your head around this simple concept, then shut up, stop throwing around scam accusations and explain how the service would go about scamming people who don't send their complete wallet, just the keys with no money on them.

3565  Economy / Collectibles / Re: CASASCIUS PHYSICAL BITCOIN - In Stock Now! (pic) on: June 11, 2014, 10:59:42 PM
Well I am scared to sell them on eBay  Tongue

I totally agree as I've never done that myself.

I've tried it... once. ebay and paypal suck for sellers. Got an ok price, but the fees and regulations ruined the fun.

That's why I'd  only ever sell these for bitcoin.

good idea Wink
3566  Economy / Collectibles / Re: CASASCIUS PHYSICAL BITCOIN - In Stock Now! (pic) on: June 11, 2014, 10:58:11 PM
The market on these has dropped off quite a bit price wise.  Within the last 2 weeks some of these have sold for as low as 2BTC

Cause?

Not sure  Huh

I think price has only dropped in BTC terms, not USD terms. Correct?
3567  Economy / Collectibles / Re: CASASCIUS PHYSICAL BITCOIN - In Stock Now! (pic) on: June 11, 2014, 10:56:54 PM
Depends on condition, and if it has been graded.  Non graded these days are going for 2.5 - 3BTC.  Recently I auctioned off a graded 2011 error (MS-65) and it fetched 3.4BTC

Why do I recall 10x prices from just a year ago?

I recall BTC 6 about a year ago. Bitcoin was at $180 or so back then. So price in fiat has risen, in fact.

The "numismatic markup" doesn't scale with BTCUSD rate.
3568  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][AUR] Auroracoin - a cryptocurrency for Iceland on: June 11, 2014, 10:51:06 PM
Next I will move on to porting bitcoinjs to Auroracoin.

Have you talked to nite96 (or was it nite69?). Afaik he (they?) ported bitcoinj already for use in the schildbach android AUR wallet, no?

EDIT: this maybe: https://github.com/Nite69/bitcoinj-scrypt.git
3569  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 09:02:23 PM
Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

I don't understand that reasoning.

Offline trades don't move the markets we look at (at least not directly), so the rally can't be "due to offline whales".

And also: what do you mean by "not enough volume to support the rally"?

Thanks for anyones explanation.
3570  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 08:59:20 PM
this is me watching the price today



you clearly need to think about doing something else. Cause this looks painful!
3571  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 11, 2014, 08:36:00 PM
One Hundred Million Giga Hash per Second! Holy mother of god!

In awe we stare at the monster we created.

3572  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 08:25:18 PM
Bitfinex USD swaps at 23.5 million and there is actually another 370k available at or below the flash return rate (0.194%).

It looks like available swap grows rapidly - so long as the interest rate is above 0.15%/day, people transfer lots of money to the site.  This is very bullish.  I could see the available swap growing 5-20%/week if high interest rates are maintained.

How is this bullish? At least in the long run, the respective longs have to be closed, resulting in a sell.
3573  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Trezor: Bitcoin hardware wallet on: June 11, 2014, 12:41:04 PM

  The answer to your question is NO. There is no simple way to chech this. There is a difficult way to test that in your particular test scenario RFC6979 is used.

One more comment: If I understand this correctly, the Trezor use case for signing transaction never reuses adresses. If k=1 was used all the time, only the private keys of the dead address will be revealed. There is still no known way to steal your BTC in this scenario. So the RFC6979 is good to have, but you are safe even without it.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

I think you're wrong: the idea could be for the trezor devs to use k = <seed XOR some secret> in order to leak the seeds of people to the blockchain, visible only to them, of course.

It's a potential attack by the trezor devs, not just anyone.


There are million of ways how wallet devs (including trezor devs) can leak your seed. Some quick ideas:


thanks for your answer.

let me comment on the items in your list while thinking of RFC6979 compliance testing (assuming it's possible and done by at least some):

1. Use above when the amount is above 10BTC (you don't care about poor guys anyway).

RFC6979 non-compliance can be detected with any single transaction above 10 BTC (there are going to be many of these, because "change")  

2. Use only last 16bits of RFC6979 and xor this with seed. This way k is still deterministic, but easy to break.

RFC6979 compliance test will result in: FAIL (or am I wrong here? not sure)

3. Leak the seed in 1000th transaction (or milionth...)
4. Leak the seed with some particular transaction. I.e. if the amount mod 97 is 32, leak the seed.
5. Leak the seed with the special, undocumented command in the interface.

even if they only leak the seed in a low percentage of transactions, there is risk of detection by RFC6979 compliance test. Once detected, shit hits fan and it's over for them. Risk too high for reward (at least compared to when using random k)

6. Combine some of above or invent your own.

Since all of above are weak approaches, this one is also weak.

In my opinion, the true random k is a better option than RFC6979, but some devs don't even know how to generate random numbers and they still write wallets to store your money....

In my opinion it's not. True random k cannot be checked for at all. It's easy to slowly leak the seed (bit by bit if need be, or completely in one go XORed with or encrypted to attacker secret) in the "random" numbers without anyone being able to prove it. (just noticed XOR would be a bad idea since it would enable "freeloaders")

3574  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Trezor: Bitcoin hardware wallet on: June 11, 2014, 12:34:47 PM
Looking forward to it's release! Hope this will change bitcoin security
It will/does not change bitcoin security .. its just a way to store your money securely

Storage is part of "Bitcoin" in the broader sense.
3575  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 12:31:57 PM
Arbitrage bots keep a balance on multiple exchanges and rebalance once in a while. It's not a matter of withdrawal fees. It's a matter of too few people operating them with too little capital apparently.

Oh... here's a suggestion for banks pissed of by NIRP (negative interest rate policy) of the ECB ;-): Arb XBT-markets.
3576  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 12:30:20 PM
Arbitrage bots keep a balance on multiple exchanges and rebalance once in a while. It's not a matter of withdrawal fees. It's a matter of too few people operating them with too little capital apparently.

It's a matter of trading-fees, though. 2 * 0.5% fee is about $6.50 at these prices.

I wouldn't shoot all my arbitrage powder on 0.4% profit when there's considerable hope of the gap widening more.
3577  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 12:27:44 PM
lol, this site shows btc lost 10% today

http://www.finanzen.net/devisen/bitcoin-dollar-kurs

oh... and in € its more than 20 %

http://www.finanzen.net/devisen/bitcoin-euro-kurs



 Cheesy

Vollidioten!

Someone should tell them.
3578  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 12:24:43 PM
it is extremely extremely BORING oh my god, when will the price move , common man

there's not excitement without boredom. yin & yang, tao and shit, remember?




So true. That's why we should be super bored before we can become super excited!! Smiley

Lets just buy some to move upward. but we are not whales so we cant move upwards. so just be bored.

If you don't have much to long/short, you can borrow. I don't recommend that.
3579  Economy / Collectibles / Re: CASASCIUS PHYSICAL BITCOIN - In Stock Now! (pic) on: June 11, 2014, 07:52:12 AM
Bummer, it's a shame to see you stop producing these coins. I remember I was one of the first ones to see this very thread launch, when it was just posted in 2011 and no one had posted in it yet. The idea was still very new back then, and I regretfully didn't buy any thinking it was all a gimmick. Oh how wrong I was...

Hehe. Don't be sad, even buying some back then doesn't necessarily make you rich: I bought quite a few, but guess what: they're all gone except one. I gave them away or sold them to friends for around €7 or €14 a piece (don't remember exactly).

3580  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Trezor: Bitcoin hardware wallet on: June 11, 2014, 07:47:12 AM
Seeing they are deterministic isn't an indication against you potentially leeking seeds through the k value, is it? Even if you leaked seeds like that, signatures could still be deterministic.

Right. That's why I continued with the comment and suggested the check against other BIP39+BIP44+RFC6979 implementations (which currently might be just Wallet32 or at least very close to it).

Yes, and that's why I thanked you for your suggestion Wink.

I had noticed that the potential attack I was talking about was misunderstood by some. Sorry for repeating myself and reordering your answers.

BTW: Don't you need some sleep? You've been up until at least 3 last night and going at it again already? Well, good morning Wink
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