Total bitcoins avaliable: 12,976,600
If 5000 each, market cap would be around 100 billion
Current market cap is around 8.5 billion
How grow up bitcoin price to 5k: put 91.5 billions of fresh money there. Seems harder than walk to millions to billions
Patently false. The market cap is simply the price of a single coin multiplied by all the coins in existence. However if you tried to buy or sell that number of coins the price would massively fluctuate. It only takes a relatively small amount of direct currency investment to drive the price up (or selling to drive it down) in comparison with the market cap because the market is so thin. This is what will drove previous bubbles and what will drive the next. Hopefully with an ETF providing even more of a liquidity suck. |
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$700's
There's been a ton of merchant acceptance and general business investment in bitcoin recently which all has been far more bullish than anything that came out November last year. That said, I just don't think there's the mania and get-rich-quick crowd waiting on the sidelines to pump it into 4-figures+ right now. I think it's going to be steady rise with a reduction in volatility, and this is what we want...
I wouldn't get too bothered trying to time things. What is likely (not certain!) to happen is what all always happens. The last rally brought with it huge media splashing of bitcoin to the great unwashed. A proportion will have either read about it and forgotten or seen the price plummet and stayed out. As the price flirts with the ATH they will climb on board along with the whales and speculators. The price will feed on itself and mania will set in. If we are lucky an ETF will be sucking liquidity from the market. Its going to happen. The only question is when. My guess is we disillusion some speculators for a bit longer before ambling up to the ATH. History often rhymes. |
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<snip>
You have been and will continue to be wrong about bitcoin. Anyway, intelligent troll or not, this is a bitcoin thread and appealing to the moderators will not change that! |
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<snip>
This is a bitcoin movement thread on a bitcoin forum. Please consider taking your bearish (trollish) altcoin chatter elsewhere. Thanks. |
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so do you guys think this recent bump was from the newegg guys who have insider info, or does it have to do with the marshal auction? i personally think it has more to do with newegg.
I agree. Newegg > Overstock and Tiger Direct put together. We're primed to go up. If a government somewhere is about to screw up badly, (and there's probably one), it'll get crazy. Crazy as in? $10k+  In 20 years, maybe. Lol wobber and tzupy not enjoying the latest move upwards.  |
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I think we are now in the final phase where coins can be accumulated relatively cheaply. Who knows how long it will last? I personally think we will move sharply up in the next few weeks or months. Every day there is new positive news. The auction reinforced the friendly US position towards bitcoin. Several giant retailers have publically integrated bitcoin into their payment systems. Today it was the turn of Newegg. Over the coming weeks and months I predict user adoption will start to move upwards sharply again. This will cause the price to rise. It will be front run by whales and big players. A common theme is that bitcoin bubbles reduce in amplitude with each successive leap but I am not so sure. Once a battle for the ATH commences its off to the races. It is time to speculate to accumulate! Ignore the bears and traders. Look at the big picture. Every single time in the past my only regret with bitcoin is that I didn't buy more when i had the chance.  (only invest what you can afford to lose!) Remember when it was in the 300-400s? That was the time. Easy to say that. The adage of buying when there is blood in the streets is hard to do. Don't get me wrong, I _was_ buying, just not heavily as it goes against human nature. I have doubled my coins in the last six months which is great. I am thankful for the heavy pullback. I am hoping it continues just a little longer so I can reach triple digits. We are in the lag period where potential adopters are watching bitcoin prices - lots of them. I am sure most of us did this. We saw a bubble then watched it pop. Were glad we hadnt bought in. Then the price starts to rise again and surges up towards the previous ATH. Then the next wave start to buy in to avoid missing the boat. I think we are approaching this stage now. |
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I think we are now in the final phase where coins can be accumulated relatively cheaply. Who knows how long it will last? I personally think we will move sharply up in the next few weeks or months. Every day there is new positive news. The auction reinforced the friendly US position towards bitcoin. Several giant retailers have publically integrated bitcoin into their payment systems. Today it was the turn of Newegg. Over the coming weeks and months I predict user adoption will start to move upwards sharply again. This will cause the price to rise. It will be front run by whales and big players. A common theme is that bitcoin bubbles reduce in amplitude with each successive leap but I am not so sure. Once a battle for the ATH commences its off to the races. It is time to speculate to accumulate! Ignore the bears and traders. Look at the big picture. Every single time in the past my only regret with bitcoin is that I didn't buy more when i had the chance. (only invest what you can afford to lose!) |
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Eh, I have to give the OP this one. If we use Stamp for reference, we fell below $620 on June 12th (when this thread was started), and only returned above $620 today. He said "weeks", and it has been 6 weeks now.
So the OP was correct in his prediction.
He predicted weeks to months.. the insinuation being that the price is heading south for some time. Now he is saying no way to the 660's again. People predicting doom when the price is at 640 is great. The last thing we want to see as the bull markets tries to get some steam going is everyone agreeing the price is going up. We need buyers to propel this upwards, buyers like wobber |
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If Starbucks, Amazon and eBay altogether start to accept bitcoin, this means almost nothing. Just a small fraction of BTC owners will use to buy goods, rest holds and speculates.
Also, all bitcoins will be sold on exchanges, neither Amazon or Starbucks will hold a single BTC for more than 30days.
So this would mean nothing. Maybe some good publicity and bigger sell volumes on exchanges.
Not sure you understand the world we live in. If a tranche of giant internet and main street companies start accepting bitcoin then there will be a stepwise increase in its utility and it will suddenly become globally legitimised in the eyes of the public. Overnight there will be a complete change in coverage in the MSM, from slightly negative and hostile to positive. The little b sign will be ubiquitous. The biggest secret of bitcoin are its economic strengths - a deflationary commodity money with fixed inelastic supply. That secret has been leaking out for the last five years. The world ran on commodity money from the beginning of time until 1971. Every year between 1971 and now has been an aberration. What do you think the tech savvy youth of the world are going to want to save there funds in when they re-discover deflationary commodity money? You think people like holding fiat in a bank at 0%? ZIRP is great for bitcoin. Nothing is set in stone but sometimes it pays to look at the big picture and slightly longer timeframes than the typical daytrader. |
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It's clear for me that there won't be any rebound to 620s or more, for at least few weeks if not even months. 2-months, daily candles graph:  So, 400s here we come. SELL SELL SELL! Next prediction please! |
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Excellent new post Oda. I agree on almost all points. I dont know if we will test50 and 62 fibs of bottom again, since we did it so long already after the first leg up. But i do expect that we will have another upward movement soon. I also agree on ATHs. They are not around the corner and they will always be of less magnitude than they were in the past.
I don't think trying to predict the timing of the next bubble is very useful. History rhymes etc. |
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No. Also, peg doesn't mean what you think it means.
Legendary answer. |
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It's looking like the consensus is between the $580-640USD/BTC range for the selling price. The sample size is still small at 15 people, but I'm expecting this crowd-prediction to be correct. (closes at 8pm tonight EST) Tone down the obvious plugging. |
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What if there were many stop losses that were triggered right before yours was triggered? I can imagine quite a few stop losses were sitting right above $600, not just yours.
I know that there would have been a lot of stop losses from traders taking small short trades following exactly the same text-book rules as I was, but before I start ranting about exchange insiders intentionally going after these stops, I shall state this: If there that many stop losses that mine simply got bumped to the very back of the queue. Why wasn't anyone 'served' before me? Why does the ticker for Bitfinex report this: 02:00:58 602.29 0.1 02:00:56 600.3 1.00626 02:00:55 608.13 319.16802:00:24 600 255.37402:00:17 599.91 0.01 Why wasn't there any trades executed at 601, 602, 603 etc, where there were plenty Ask orders in wall along this small range? Amongst the double and single digit Ask orders that stood in the way of $600 and $608, was a 100 BTC order at $604.99. Why wasn't that triggered at the price which the trader who made the order set it at? I bet that insofar as it was a real order, that the trader only got paid his $604.99 minus fees. I wish had taken a screenshot of the Bitfinex order book just a second before the short squeeze happened to illustrate and emphasise the situation to those who skim read and come to conclusions like: "well, of course stop losses will be closed with market orders" If Bitfinex's policy with gluts of stop loss orders is to simply sweep up all the coins in the Ask wall required to fill the stops in a certain range, and then sell those coins to Stop Orders at highest possible price before Ask Wall depth recommences, then i am afraid that this is a form of front running and insider trading. I hope the price doesn't do what it has the last 5 years in a row and go up 10x later this year. Because you are going to be kicking yourself Mat. Why are you playing with leverage?! Einstein's definition of insanity comes to mind. |
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This is why you should ignore bears
If you would have been thorough, you would have noticed the context: that day the price dropped from 12$ to 9$, and the next days just below 6$. During the next 3 months it dropped down to 2$. So his bearish views were confirmed on a medium term. Someone who ignored the bears back then made a big mistake. A big mistake really? If they just held then they probably did better than 99.5% of the 'traders' on this forum, you included? |
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Now it's the last desperate hope for all the cab drivers and grocery clerks... Bitcoin is not about organic development of technology, not any more.
Wow, Im pretty sure that anywhere in the world you go and ask a cab driver what bitcoin is, they never heard of it. As for development of technology, bitcoin is barely scratching the surface, there are more developers working on bitcoin related software, hardware, than there are in most technological fields at the moment. Imagine 1-2 years from now, when all those MIT and other universities students graduate what will they come up with. Altcoins brought nothing new to the table, Bitcoin was about decentralization of money and is the main cord that keeps all the altcoins alive. If I'll lose faith in Bitcoin I'll lose faith in decentralized money meaning in all crypto currencies. About 4 months ago, a cab driver told me about bitcoin and how it will tear down banks. Bitcoin is currently also hot in certain circles, where people meet each other by visiting the same motivational self-help classes. there are more developers working on bitcoin related software, hardware, than there are in most technological fields Exaggeration like that always crack me up. You are not even just talking about the open source scenery, but about most technological fields! Haha.. Bitcoin's development is slow and one of the reasons for it is that it's core is flawed. If you can't fix the core flaws, then there isn't much road ahead. Altcoins are the improvements of bitcoin, the new and better models that face the flaws that bitcoin has shown through experience. Fools like to see bitcoin as flawless, just like religious zealots find The Bible flawless. Just like religious zealots, they can't see that when the core is rotten, then no matter how much you try to decorate the exterior, the core still remains rotten. Pumpkin head I do wonder why you bother trolling a bitcoin forum about altcoins. You come across as a very negative elitist fool with that comment about taxi drivers and clerks. Hilarious really that you can be so wide of the mark whilst trying to sound superior. Or have I missed the numerous giant silicon valley firms integrating altcoins as payment in the last six months? |
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I wish TERA would make another illustrated prediction so we can add it to our collections of Goofy Forecasts Didn't Tera turn bull a few weeks ago though? Aside from the usual trolls pretty much everyone is bullish right now. In terms of short term trading (the next 6 months) I was bullish for the past 6 weeks, until 550 was breached. Now I am neutral and think there is an equal chance of rallying and of beginning a C wave down and the next 2 weeks of consolidation will be critical. Long term I have always been bullish and remain bullish.Jesus you keep that bullish enthusiasm well hidden. |
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to matt
Wow 555 was the trendline. Looks like we were close.
<snip>
A bull market is often referred to as a wall of worry. It isn't meant to be easy. The market shakes out most people on the way up, right Mat? |
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Great post OP.
I can tell you the killer apps and quick access to bitcoins are rolling out and coming soon. If it weren't for all the muddy regulations, we'd be a lot further along.
Thanks. I just wanted to post something based on the fundamentals rather than technicals on here for a change. Here is hoping you are right. |
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The BTC brand is getting more visibility because of this I agree, but what's the real incentive for someone to actually start buying them? Maybe some will learn about the advantages of decentralisation and how BTC can be a better form of money than anything we've ever had before and buy some just for that reason alone. But will that be enough to truly launch it into the mainstream? I don't think that's enough yet, but I'm optimistic someone somewhere will be making that killer app one day that will make BTC accessible, easy to use and also desirable by the public. I think we all underestimate the general public. Don't forget until the last forty three years all of collective human history revolved around commodity money. It is only the baby boomer generation who believe in fiat. Bitcoin is simply reverting to an improved mean. As the public become aware of bitcoin they will become aware of its huge advantages over conventional fiat currency. For business the gain is cheaper payments eliminating the legacy banking system. For the consumer the benefit is a frictionless deflationary currency. That is the killer application, it's the reason we all hold bitcoin. It is what will bring in the next wave of users. |
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