Something, something, something, technical analysis

[Dragonkiller]

You list 'market explosion' events such as an ETF being approved or a new 'serious' exchange popping up. We know these things will happen in the remainder of 2014, so why do you say a new ATH rally will not take place until at least next year?

I only know that more than one ETF has been under consideration for some time now. If and when it gets approved, we will see whether it does in fact lead to another 'explosion event' or not.

Keep in mind, there were almost 2 years between the 2011 ATH and the next one, so having to wait for a bit more than year to get to the next one (especially after seeing two in quick succession in 2013) isn't exactly a gloomy prediction.

Well we know Barry Silbert is hoping to launch his exchange this summer and his ETF in Q4.

The Winklevoss ETF will likely be approved this year too.

Yes, it isn't a gloomy prediction and in fact I agree with your prediction for the size of the next ATH. But I don't agree with the timing.

[windjc]

Excellent new post Oda. I agree on almost all points. I dont know if we will test50 and 62 fibs of bottom again, since we did it so long already after the first leg up. But i do expect that we will have another upward movement soon. I also agree on ATHs. They are not around the corner and they will always be of less magnitude than they were in the past.

[inca]

Excellent new post Oda. I agree on almost all points. I dont know if we will test50 and 62 fibs of bottom again, since we did it so long already after the first leg up. But i do expect that we will have another upward movement soon. I also agree on ATHs. They are not around the corner and they will always be of less magnitude than they were in the past.

I don't think trying to predict the timing of the next bubble is very useful. History rhymes etc.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Great observations, oda!

One thing I would like to point out. The Feb '12 bottom after the $7.22 high (the lower one) was caused by a trader who thought he would slam the market and make all this money. He even gloated about it on this forum with screen shot and all. Big mistake! Someone else quickly short squoze him in one of the fastest 100% swing volatility we have seen. This doesn't change that it happened, and it still stirred the psychology in the market, so by default, valid to use the data, but it was something that wouldn't have normally happened without the help of the #2 worst exchange (maybe #3?) Bitcoinica.

[oda.krell]

Great observations, oda!

One thing I would like to point out. The Feb '12 bottom after the $7.22 high (the lower one) was caused by a trader who thought he would slam the market and make all this money. He even gloated about it on this forum with screen shot and all. Big mistake! Someone else quickly short squoze him in one of the fastest 100% swing volatility we have seen. This doesn't change that it happened, and it still stirred the psychology in the market, so by default, valid to use the data, but it was something that wouldn't have normally happened without the help of the #2 worst exchange (maybe #3?) Bitcoinica.

Thanks! Really interesting to hear that bit about 2012.

I know the history 'first hand' since last year, and have done some reading into the 2011/2012 era, but it's different if you experienced it directly or not. The entire Bitcoinica debacle is something I only know of vaguely, and it almost feels a bit like "grandfather reminisces about the war" when I hear the 2010/2011 members talk about it... and it's aweseome, I hope I can do the same in 2016 for the new members "I will never forget the SR coins auction in June 2014, kids" :D

[lebing]

Thanks again Oda for the great analysis as usual. Bare with me for a minute while I poke the subject few analysts like to touch. I am wondering why everyone is so confident about the next run up being smaller in % than 2013. Imo the next run up starts when an ETF is released and all of that pent up non technical buying demand is finally provided with their preferred buying option. Once that starts I do not see this run up playing out any differently than the others. Something to consider as well is just how different the medias opinion is now vs 2013. We did not have a resident spokesperson bloomberg tv in 2013, that would have been unfathomable.  For these reasons I believe the market is still far too small of a market cap to absorb the pent up demand and corresponding usual frenzy without moving the price at least over 5k, probably 10k. This will happen within a few weeks of the etf release so I am also optimistic that it will happen this year.

[oda.krell]

Thanks again Oda for the great analysis as usual. Bare with me for a minute while I poke the subject few analysts like to touch. I am wondering why everyone is so confident about the next run up being smaller in % than 2013. Imo the next run up starts when an ETF is released and all of that pent up non technical buying demand is finally provided with their preferred buying option. Once that starts I do not see this run up playing out any differently than the others. Something to consider as well is just how different the medias opinion is now vs 2013. We did not have a resident spokesperson bloomberg tv in 2013, that would have been unfathomable.  For these reasons I believe the market is still far too small of a market cap to absorb the pent up demand and corresponding usual frenzy without moving the price at least over 5k, probably 10k. This will happen within a few weeks of the etf release so I am also optimistic that it will happen this year.

Thanks for the kind words. Keep in mind, my initial remarks (about how far the next "bubble" will go) are comparably off-handed. I don't have the tools to predict the long term price, and I don't trust the tools that I know to exist (log linear extrapolation), so what I believe I _can_ do is short and mid term predictions and calculations.

That said, the main reason that I do believe bubble size growth will decrease over time is that I believe that as the market gets bigger, the market also becomes more professional, which also entails it becomes more opportunistic, which entails profits will be taken earlier (because if you don't take profits comparably early, someone else will, and suddenly there are no profits for you to take anymore - i.e. a game theoretic understanding emerges that profits need to be taken earlier as time progresses), which entails the bubbles will overshoot less than they did in the past.

But I'm not firmly committed to this, or rather: I don't really base my trading decisions on this (relatively vague) intuition, which in a way means I don't trust my own intuition. It's just that I trust others' intuition about the 10k coin in 2015 even less.


Update: Watch out for $614 to $616. Daily SMA200 (which threw us back earlier this month) is sitting there right now, and it is the previous peak from mid June. Won't be trivial to break it, I'm afraid, but if we make it through it, we'll probably pick up speed.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Thanks again Oda for the great analysis as usual. Bare with me for a minute while I poke the subject few analysts like to touch. I am wondering why everyone is so confident about the next run up being smaller in % than 2013. Imo the next run up starts when an ETF is released and all of that pent up non technical buying demand is finally provided with their preferred buying option. Once that starts I do not see this run up playing out any differently than the others. Something to consider as well is just how different the medias opinion is now vs 2013. We did not have a resident spokesperson bloomberg tv in 2013, that would have been unfathomable.  For these reasons I believe the market is still far too small of a market cap to absorb the pent up demand and corresponding usual frenzy without moving the price at least over 5k, probably 10k. This will happen within a few weeks of the etf release so I am also optimistic that it will happen this year.

Thanks for the kind words. Keep in mind, my initial remarks (about how far the next "bubble" will go) are comparably off-handed. I don't have the tools to predict the long term price, and I don't trust the tools that I know to exist (log linear extrapolation), so what I believe I _can_ do is short and mid term predictions and calculations.

That said, the main reason that I do believe bubble size growth will decrease over time is that I believe that as the market gets bigger, the market also becomes more professional, which also entails it becomes more opportunistic, which entails profits will be taken earlier (because if you don't take profits comparably early, someone else will, and suddenly there are no profits for you to take anymore - i.e. a game theoretic understanding emerges that profits need to be taken earlier as time progresses), which entails the bubbles will overshoot less than they did in the past.

But I'm not firmly committed to this, or rather: I don't really base my trading decisions on this (relatively vague) intuition, which in a way means I don't trust my own intuition. It's just that I trust others' intuition about the 10k coin in 2015 even less.


Update: Watch out for $614 to $616. Daily SMA200 (which threw us back earlier this month) is sitting there right now, and it is the previous peak from mid June. Won't be trivial to break it, I'm afraid, but if we make it through it, we'll probably pick up speed.

Another very simple reason for much smaller bubbles is a sheer amount of money it would require. I mean, raising the current price X to 2X would require twice as much money as would be needed to raise price from 1/2X to X. This is of course very simplified, but you get the idea: e.g. price cannot raise "as easily" from $700 to $1400 as it did from $350 to $700.

[MatTheCat]

But I'm not firmly committed to this, or rather: I don't really base my trading decisions on this (relatively vague) intuition, which in a way means I don't trust my own intuition. It's just that I trust others' intuition about the 10k coin in 2015 even less.

Update: Watch out for $614 to $616. Daily SMA200 (which threw us back earlier this month) is sitting there right now, and it is the previous peak from mid June. Won't be trivial to break it, I'm afraid, but if we make it through it, we'll probably pick up speed.

Intution, ah that old chestnut.

The indicators and common sense all suggest that Bitcoin should correct a bit from here but my intuition says that that $615 target will be taken out and then some. B4 or after a correction I don't know, but I am finding it very difficult to get my heart behind the bearish cause at the moment.

As I type, all the rampy, leveragey, fake volumey exchanges are bursting and squeeling to go higher....but Stamp won't let them. If whales on all the other big exchanges think that Bitcoin is such a great buy at these prices, why aren't they buying on Stamp?

[CEG5952]

The indicators and common sense all suggest that Bitcoin should correct a bit from here but my intuition says that that $615 target will be taken out and then some. B4 or after a correction I don't know, but I am finding it very difficult to get my heart behind the bearish cause at the moment.

I'm bullish -- soon -- but this last leg looks like a fakeout. I think we might correct down from here before approaching that target. Still looking for 580 level, unless I see a breakout up first.

[MatTheCat]

The indicators and common sense all suggest that Bitcoin should correct a bit from here but my intuition says that that $615 target will be taken out and then some. B4 or after a correction I don't know, but I am finding it very difficult to get my heart behind the bearish cause at the moment.

Intuition calls it again! I do this all the time! But did I have a Bitcoin position during that break out? Did I fuck! I sold my $600 buy-in at $601.41 yesterday, and had buy-in set at $567. I really am fucking awful at trading. Why can I generally be pretty good at calling market but so fucking damn awful at trading? What is it about my decision making process that has such a strong desire to LOSE!?

Bought in at $628, and am proud to admit that due to all my ill-timed faffinf around, I have 0.5 Bitcoins less than I had when I sold at $645 before the correction down to $538......lowest I bought was $555.....sold at $540.  

Going offshore today...be gone for weeks.....probably won't be in position to sit staring at charts and make 'judgement' calls and try and outwit the market. It either trends North from here, or hits $750 - $800 and is smashed back down for C leg of DanV's Wave 4 correction.

[windjc]

The indicators and common sense all suggest that Bitcoin should correct a bit from here but my intuition says that that $615 target will be taken out and then some. B4 or after a correction I don't know, but I am finding it very difficult to get my heart behind the bearish cause at the moment.

Intuition calls it again! I do this all the time! But did I have a Bitcoin position during that break out? Did I fuck! I sold my $600 buy-in at $601.41 yesterday, and had buy-in set at $567. I really am fucking awful at trading. Why can I generally be pretty good at calling market but so fucking damn awful at trading? What is it about my conscious decision making process that has such a strong desire to LOSE!?

Bought in at $628, and am proud to admit that due to all my ill-timed faffinf around, I have 0.5 Bitcoins less than I had when I sold at $645 before the correction down to $538......lowest I bought was $555.....sold at $540.  

Going offshore today...be gone for weeks.....probably won't be in position to sit staring at charts and make 'judgement' calls and try and outwit the market. It either trends North from here, or hits $750 - $800 and is smashed back down for C leg of DanV's Wave 4 correction.

Yes. You suck at trading because you fail to follow any of the rules of trading. I and others told you to hold your long position. And you said "no." Until you can say "yes" you don't deserve trading profits.

Have fun on your vacation.

[oda.krell]

Daily SMA200. 2nd attempt.

[sgbett]

That said, the main reason that I do believe bubble size growth will decrease over time is that I believe that as the market gets bigger, the market also becomes more professional, which also entails it becomes more opportunistic, which entails profits will be taken earlier (because if you don't take profits comparably early, someone else will, and suddenly there are no profits for you to take anymore - i.e. a game theoretic understanding emerges that profits need to be taken earlier as time progresses), which entails the bubbles will overshoot less than they did in the past.

I think that is spot on what is going to happen, its the best I'm hoping for in the circumstances. Any other crazy MOON ideas occupy the same part of my brain that thinks I'm gonna win the lottery or something, nice to dream but unlikely to happen!

That kind of choppy slower growth ties in with how I felt about it being harder now to hold as it rises, because there will be so many more profit-taking driven sell offs. They'll keep spooking the holders. If you are long term hold and skim though you should realise this isn't a problem, it doesn't matter if any price action is super-exponential or merely linear, your strategy remains the same, and it still works.

(Until it doesn't of course, but that should never be a surprise to anyone signed up for this roller coaster.)

[sgbett]

Daily SMA200. 2nd attempt.

I'm no chart expert but that first test was never gonna hold as the SMA50 was miles away, this one might - esp if the 50 crosses this time. Could be all kinds of gains if that happens!

edit: i dunno if its relevant but the SMA30 is very close to crossing, if i did this chart thing then i'd probably go for a 30/200 crossover as 200 is always the default 'long term' and 30 seems like the logical (monthly) medium term one to choose. like i say, i'm no expert though

[Torque]

That said, the main reason that I do believe bubble size growth will decrease over time is that I believe that as the market gets bigger, the market also becomes more professional, which also entails it becomes more opportunistic, which entails profits will be taken earlier (because if you don't take profits comparably early, someone else will, and suddenly there are no profits for you to take anymore - i.e. a game theoretic understanding emerges that profits need to be taken earlier as time progresses), which entails the bubbles will overshoot less than they did in the past.

I think that is spot on what is going to happen, its the best I'm hoping for in the circumstances. Any other crazy MOON ideas occupy the same part of my brain that thinks I'm gonna win the lottery or something, nice to dream but unlikely to happen!

I generally agree, as it will take an even higher volume of money to make a bubble go parabolic to the same relative level (5x - 6x) as past bubbles.  But to play devil's advocate, suppose we go through future periods where the bitcoin "awareness factor" spreads faster than previous times, and an influx of new bitcoiners has a higher incoming velocity (i.e., say 20x vs. 10x) than past bubbles?  So hyper userbase growth?  Higher velocity of new incoming users = higher volume of incoming fiat, resulting in possibly the same relative bubble height.

In terms of awareness growth, I believe we are going through one of those periods now, in that bitcoin awareness is spreading globally at a hyper-exponential rate than past periods.  This is what I think may fuel a hyper-bubble in the future.  Maybe not this next time, but at some future date.

Hopefully what I'm saying is making some sense.

Thoughts?

[sgbett]

That said, the main reason that I do believe bubble size growth will decrease over time is that I believe that as the market gets bigger, the market also becomes more professional, which also entails it becomes more opportunistic, which entails profits will be taken earlier (because if you don't take profits comparably early, someone else will, and suddenly there are no profits for you to take anymore - i.e. a game theoretic understanding emerges that profits need to be taken earlier as time progresses), which entails the bubbles will overshoot less than they did in the past.

I think that is spot on what is going to happen, its the best I'm hoping for in the circumstances. Any other crazy MOON ideas occupy the same part of my brain that thinks I'm gonna win the lottery or something, nice to dream but unlikely to happen!

I generally agree, as it will take an even higher volume of money to make a bubble go parabolic to the same relative level (5x - 6x) as past bubbles.  But to play devil's advocate, suppose we go through future periods where the bitcoin "awareness factor" spreads faster than previous times, and an influx of new bitcoiners has a higher incoming velocity (i.e., say 20x vs. 10x) than past bubbles?  So hyper userbase growth?  In terms of awareness growth, I believe we are going through one of those periods now, in that bitcoin awareness is spreading globally at a hyper-exponential rate than past periods.  This is what I think may fuel a hyper-bubble in the future.  Maybe not this next time, but at some future date.

Thoughts?

It certainly could [says the I'm-gonna-win-the-lottery part of my brain]

[oda.krell]

Agreed, sgbett, there's a better chance to tackle the SMA200 today in my opinion. Still not 100% sure we're going to stay above it then in the next days. Don't underestimate the sheer weight of the preceding bear market that's still lasting on us. Could take another few attempts before we conclusively leave it behind.

re: the "bubble size" discussion... agreed, the increased awareness of btc could lead to ever increasing numbers of new users which brings in multiples of the previous "fresh fiat" amounts needed to sustain the bubble growth rate. I still don't buy it. I probably have a somewhat lower "final" valuation in mind than many, and I almost certainly think it'll take a lot longer to get there than most here (in the range of up to a generation), so there's plenty of time for that, even with declining growth rate.

[sgbett]

yes 5 figures in 10 years is probably a more realistic target, though thoroughly less popular an opinion.

I hold for that scenario, prepared for zero, and insured against the outrageously unlikely moon scenario. I sleep well at night.

[oda.krell]

yes 5 figures in 10 years is probably a more realistic target, though thoroughly less popular an opinion.

I hold for that scenario, prepared for zero, and insured against the outrageously unlikely moon scenario. I sleep well at night.

I'd be happy with putting that one into the official Bitcoin investment brochure.