Hehe, yes, it's no rocket science It's just this: Probabilty = 1/odds

1/1.46 = 0.68493
1/4.70 = 0.21276
1/5.68 = 0.17605

You can make a little Excel sheet with the above formulars and just put in the respective odds and have the (bookies/markets) probabilites in no time for lots of matches.



I would recommend to do your own analysis first and then afterwards compare it to the bookies probabilities. That way you are not biased

Edit: Thanks @o_e_l_e_o, my bad, corrected it.

Doesn't really matter what the odds for the other outcomes are, since you should only look at the odds for the outcome you want to bet on. If we make probabilities out of the odds for Chelsea game, we have this:

Chelsea -> 1.46 = 68.49%
Draw -> 4.70 = 21.28%
Leeds -> 5.68 = 17.61%

This totals up to 107.38%, so Sportsbet's vig is 7.38% in this market.

Now if you consider to bet on Chelsea, the only thing you should look at is the 68.49%. If you think Chelsea has a higher probabilty of winning than that, you should bet on them. If you think it's lower, then not and you can probably check for draw/Leeds, if there is some value there. So, if you give Leeds 25%, then you should bet on them instead.

The hard thing is to calculate your own probabilities. The good thing though is, that you don't need precise numbers, you just need to figure out, if it's higher/lower than 68.49%.

This is no trust issue though, but some personal/private dispute about deleting posts in a self-moderated thread (where some BTC is to be won tbf, paid out by a bookmaker afaik though and not by rdbase himself). The self-moderated warning on top of the thread has this covered ("if you do not want to be moderated....."), so not a lot you can do, if OP doesn't like your posts, which is of course a very subjective evaluation and probably not always fair.

Just shake hands guys

Going with Mainz today at Bielefeld or to put it more precise, I am going against Bielefeld, since they just lack the quality to make any noise in Bundesliga. Them promoting last season was already a bit of a surprise, since they are/were a good 2. Bundesliga side, but not super strong - it was just that everything was clicking for them for 34 rounds. They are no rich club with some big sponsor, so they basically play with the same squad in Bundesliga like they used to play in 2. Bundesliga as an above average team; longterm this can't work out.

They are able to keep the games close, since their defense is working very well and the coach is a defensive specialist, but offensively it's just poor. Their top striker (21 goals) is expectedly not working in this league and their other main guy (12 goals) is stilll coming back from injury (and won't work in Bundesliga as well imo). Mainz has been doing better lately and if they are able to let Bielefeld not score more than 1 goal, I am pretty sure, they will not lose this one today. A draw looks likely, but if there will be a winner, it will be Mainz me thinks.

Mainz dnb @1.80

---

The other games in GER1&2 look very interesting as well today, but I don't like the pre-match odds; something for inplay

It goes like this :

We have this little thread here for a long time, are posting our MM predictions, talking a bit about the games, cheering for each other if in contention for the win etc. I make these tables and also a general stats overview. This is just for fun basically, but over the time this has become a little MM family outside of the offcial SB thread.

SB likes this thread and how it evolved and started to offer weekly freebets to us, which we can distribute like we want. As it seems, they now like this thread even more () and decided to give 3x 100mBTC to this thread as a sign of appreciation and early Xmas gift. This of course leads understandably to potentially a lot of people coming here and wanting to join the party (read: harvesting the fruit of the regular posters ). So it was agreed, that newbies to this thread are not eligible for the extra prize, since SB left it to us what to do with the BTC, as you can read here. See the following posts for the discussion on how to distribute them as well.

I personally don't care (won't win anything anyway^^) and didn't engage in this discussion, since I am fine with everything that is decided. I personally have no problem in you or jeremy being eligible (one could maybe say Sr Member+ as a general rule), but I still consider myself only a guest in this thread - it's up to others to have the final say. My only concern is, that my table grows too big to properly post it here

Here are mine, took a bit longer for my algo to spit out the results with so much money BTC to be won, thank you very much @sportsbet.io

Tottenham Hotspur FC - Arsenal FC
AS Roma - Sassuolo Calcio
Athletic Bilbao - RC Celta de Vigo
Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig
Botafogo FR RJ - CR Flamengo RJ
Chelsea FC - Leeds United
Eintracht Frankfurt - Borussia Dortmund
Inter Milano - Bologna FC
Liverpool FC - Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
Montpellier HSC - Paris Saint-Germain FC
Sampdoria Genoa - AC Milan
Schalke 04 - Bayer Leverkusen
Sevilla FC - Real Madrid
Watford FC - Cardiff City
West Ham United FC - Manchester United

Screenshot

Implemented the legendary no-draw strategy for this one as well, so watch out for gazillions of X's.

---

Here is the table with all entries (public table):



As expected lots of matches with quite some consensus found, but only PSG gets the trust from all participants. Only two draws picked for Sevilla-Real, which seems a quite likely result - we just have too many users with the no-draw approach JanpriX and Trofo have the exact same first 12 picks, but then have different opinions for the three remaining ones.

@jeremypwr @LFC_Bitcoin
I added you to the table, welcome If I read the conversation in here correctly, you won’t be eligible for the extra prize though, since this is your first time posting your picks in here. (Sorry, if this is bad news for you, but I don’t make the rules, I only post the tables Just wanted to give you notice about it, so you are not disappointed, if/when you don’t get the extra prize).

I am asking all users to check their entries in the table. As far as I understood, this table will be the basis for the 100mBTC prize and I am thankfully not free of failure, so make sure I have put your picks correctly in there, to prevent any trouble afterwards and for everyone to follow and cheer everything properly. If you see a mistake, post in this thread or PM me.

Good luck everyone.

One bet for FA Cup for tomorrow.

Jiangsu - Tianjin Teda -> Tianjin +0.25 @1.90

Jiangsu will be playing this one without any foreign players, while Tianjin has 3 of them available, which is a huge advantage and Jiangsu can't be favourite here under these circumstances. Game will be played in neutral location. Some sources say it's the first leg, but it's actually only this one game, no 2nd leg. If the game is tied after 90min, there will be a penalty shootout right away.

Put in the work

Don't expect any good results with not putting any work in. Study the league, study the teams, study the players, watch as many games as possible, make yourself familiar with money management & value, search for good information that is not easily accessible by average Joe etc.

Then start with small stakes and keep track of your bets, play only single bets. Don't only analyze your bets beforehand, but also in retrospective, like was it a good/valuable bet regardless of the outcome.

I guess you are not willing or able to put in this work, so in the end you will have to live with losing. But you are not alone

Probably some uncertainty about Allens ankle, which he injured a bit against the Chargers; he looked fine the rest of the game though. Adrenaline always helps in such a situation, the severity of the injury you only realize the day(s) after. It's said to be not bad, but you never know (what other punters know^^).

Main reason though is imo the 49ers getting more healthy on defense and this showed already in the Rams game. Offensively they are still struggling, but if their defense clicks, it's always hard to beat them. Bills are still a bit overrated and/or not super convincing, so with a FF or INT here and there, the odds look ok-ish to me.

1.  Burnley FC vs. Everton FC - 1
2.  West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC - 2
3.  West Bromwich Albion vs. Crystal Palace FC - 2
4.  Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC - 1

5.  Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid - X
6.  Granada CF vs. SD Huesca - 1
7.  CA Osasuna vs. Real Betis Balompie - 1

8.  DSC Arminia Bielefeld  vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 - 2
9.  FC Koln vs. VfL Wolfsburg - X
10. Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart - 2

11. Hellas Verona FC vs. Cagliari Calcio - 1
12. Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Benevento Calcio - 1
13. Udinese Calcio vs. Atalanta BC - 1
14. UC Sampdoria vs. AC Milan - 2

15. LOSC Lille  vs. AS Monaco FC - 2

Betnomi username: tyKiwanuka

Nice - Leverkusen -> Nice 1X @2.60

Pretty meaningless game for Leverkusen here, only thing they have to take care of is to not lose the H2H with the french side, but first leg was 6-2, so very unlikely that they will lose it. Other than that, it doesn't matter, if they win, lose or draw today, since they can win the group in their last game at home against Prague still. And in the end it doesn't matter that much if you finish first or second in your group, the EL is very random all in all and by finishing second you at least get a more attractive opponent most likely

The germans are still struggling with some injuries and their last showing in Bundesliga against Hertha was poor; they are a bit tired overall. They will still field a competitive squad, but couldn't care less about this game imo. Fly there, play the game and leave again as fast as possible. Nice is not what you would call an in-form team atm and I am not sure about their motivation, but they should look to get some confidence after 4 losses in a row. They have tiny chances to promote to KO phase, but don't think they are too eager to go there. I expect a rather boring match and like Nice to not lose here at good odds.

Yes, Zenit have disappointed during this CL campaign and they were struggling a bit in domestic league lately as well, but you also have to consider the fact, that they have to score at least two goals to have a chance to win the H2H against Brugge. A 1-0 win won't do it, since first leg was 2-1 for Belgians. A 2-0+ today would do the trick, a 2-1 would tie the H2H and results like 3-2/4-3/etc. would also win them the H2H. I do think they are very interested in continuing to play in EL, so I think they will take a quite offensive approach, which should then also open up some space for Brugge. And if Brugge takes the lead, you will see Zenit pushing all the time. BTS is a good option as well, but odds are slightly lower, thus I went with the over instead, lets see.

Dortmund will probably be happy with a draw today, since it would secure promotion to KO phase. They are not the team go for a draw, but if the game is tied middle/late second half, they won't go for the win no matter what just to take top spot in the group. Lazio can live with a draw as well, so I am expecting a rather boring game like you.

Interesting situation in Group F, where Zenit needs a win today, if they want to keep their hopes for EL participation after the CL group stage alive. A draw won't be enough, since they would lose the H2H - in first leg Brugge won 2-1 at Zenit. The Belgians themselves don't need the 3 points badly, IF Lazio loses at Dormund. A draw would put them 3 points behind Lazio then and with a win at Rome they would advance to KO phase. So the motivation of Brugge to go for 3 points relies a bit on what happens in Dortmund, but still Zenit has no choice but to play for the win. I like these scenarios and the over 2.5 @ 1.75 looks like a good bet here.

I rarely bet on player props, but I like Wilson going over 28.5 rushing yards in MNF. He is 6/10 this season beating this line and though the Eagles are bad, their defense/pass rush is still doing good and the Seahawks O-Line isn't very reliable. He averages 36.7 rushings yards per game, which includes two games with only 5yds. There is a pattern in his stats with going over two times, followed by two under games. He currently is on his two-games-over-streak, so lets hope he will be able to break the pattern tonight.

Game looks very under-ish - also the H2H - but don't like to bet on that. Will maybe jump on the Seahawks inplay above 2.00, if that opportunity arises (and I don't fall asleep^^).

Another rather boring weekend in terms of red cards. With this small sample size I did actually get a better feel by now and was able to take advantange of my observations in a game not mentioned here. I wanted to lay Elche to win at HT as well, but then got distracted and by the time I got back to the game, Cadiz already had scored the equalizer. Too bad.

These second half red cards are still hard to figure out properly (laying next goal does work imo, but it's risky and you would have to hedge); the red cards in first half are "easy", only problem is, that they don't come by very often

England

No red cards this round.

Spain

Elche - Cadiz
Red Card: Elche in 45+4th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-1

This is one game from the lesson we learned ealier this thread and it would have worked out again. Elche were around 2.00 to win at halftime and as expected they weren't able to hold on to that lead and Cadiz scored the equalizer in second half.

---

Celta Vigo - Granada
Red Card: Celta Vigo in 98th minute, score 3-1
Final Score: 3-1

Late red card, no impact.

Italy

Benevento - Juventus
Red Card: Juventus in 97th minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-1

Late red card, no impact.

Germany

Wolfsburg - Bremen
Red Card: Bremen in 80th minute, score 4-3
Final Score: 5-3

Kind of expected for Wolfsburg to score another goal, when Bremen was pushing to score the 4-4, but it took until 95th minute. So this is not a red one to me.

---

Mainz - Hoffenheim
Red Card: Hoffenheim in 80th minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-1

10+ minutes are really short to have any impact, because a red card at this late stage doesn't change a lot. The red-carded team will just park the bus for some minutes with 10 players and it's not easy for any team to score then. This could be green.

Well, my accounts at Betcris family are limited, non-parlay restricted and they have mandatory KYC, so not that easy to do multi-accounting like you probably do at the crypto bookies. I am generally not the one defending bookies, but it's pretty easy to tell what you are doing/betting (and I am not talking about getting an informational advantage like @gadado mentioned), so I for one think that you are not in a position to accuse all the books of scamming you. Just take it on the chin that it didn't work out and move on.

I am wondering why you and your "friends" seem to have problems with like every bookmaker there is on this planet. If you are a winning player or just have a betting style the bookie doesn't like, you will have problems here and there with them bullying you, but this can't be the case with all of them. Looks to me the "problem" is more with you in general than the bookies, but not sure.

None of us made it to the top this week, so here are just the overall stats, where Avirunes takes home the highly valuable 100 fame points this week.....



.....also leading the fame point category by a mile now with 400 points. This weeks win also puts him at 5 wins and thus on par with Trofo. Pretty good weekend, eh ?

Special mention goes out to @ralle14, who is the only one to never miss publishing his picks in this thread (although you were a bit late sometimes lately^^)

Hope next week will be more exciting again

I doubt they had that much action on the Presidential markets, so you just pay the Trump bettors as well and use it as a promotion tool á la "hey, look, we have paid Biden and Trump bettors here at Stake".

I do to and am surprised no one has mentioned the Bills yet. They are coming off a bye week and are nearly a lock for me to beat the Chargers today. Chargers only beat Bengals/Jaguars/Jets this season, although they were able to keep most games close or lose with some dumb plays tbf. Bills will play with a chip on their shoulder after the Murray-miracle and I can see nothing but a Bills win here. ML @1.50 is good enough for me. The over 51.5 looks very tempting as well, can see this one going into the 60’s, if the Chargers show up. Something like 40-24 maybe.