Football in China - The Chinese Super League

[tyKiwanuka]

Tianjin Teda - Qingdao / Qingdao -0.25 @ 1.93 5/10

Didn't watch that one, but looks like a comfortable win more or less, +4,65 here.


Shijazhuang - Beijing / Beijing ML @1.60 6/10

Beijing lost the big game against SIPG today, but they are still top team in CSL all things considered. Shijazhuang is doing pretty good after promoting. They have good foreign players and are pretty in sync all in all - their chinese players are weak though. Beijing is the way better team and 1.60 is just too much, when they lost today and want to go back to winning asap (they drew the game before as well). Shijazhuang seems a good opponent to get a win again after two unsuccessful tries

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[tyKiwanuka]

Shijazhuang - Beijing / Beijing ML @1.60 6/10

Beijing got a red card late in first half when the game was 1-1. Hard to get the 3 points then, 2-2FT, -6.00.


For next round:

Shenzhen – Guangzhou R&F / Shenzhen +0.25 @1.86 5/10

R&F is struggling a lot this season, especially upfront, which is unusual for them. Now they will also miss their top striker Zahavi, because he travelled to Israel to play the UEFA Nations League. These odds are very wrong.

Shanghai Shenhua – Guangzhou / Guangzhou ML @1.81 5/10

Guangzhou is still the best team for me in CSL and Shanghai will miss their top player El Shaarawy in this game, because he also left China for UNL.

Hebei – Shijazhuang / Hebei +0.25 @1.87 4/10

This one is wrongly priced, Shijazhuang can’t be favourite here. I am expecting Shijazhuang to fade a bit the longer the season goes, since their Chinese players are weak. Hebei is a solid side and should get a draw here minimum.

[tyKiwanuka]

Shenzhen – Guangzhou R&F / Shenzhen +0.25 @1.86 5/10 -> 2-0
Shanghai Shenhua – Guangzhou / Guangzhou ML @1.81 5/10 -> 1-4
Hebei – Shijazhuang / Hebei +0.25 @1.87 4/10 -> 1-3

Odds went down nicely for all the picks (Shenzhen ~1.45, Guangzhou ~1.50, Hebei ~1.50), but Hebei disappointed us, although they took the lead. But looked like it was good value, you won't always win value bets though  +4.35 for this round, +9.50 for the season, slow and steady wins the race

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For tomorrows match between Qingdao and Wuhan, the odds for Wuhan looked good, when they came out, because Qingdao will miss one of their foreign players due to red card in last match. They don't have a proper replacement for him and Wuhan is a very solid team. Odds have come down quite a lot though and not worth pre-match anymore. But if anyone is bored, watches/follows the game, you might consider putting a bet on Wuhan live.

[Trofo]

For tomorrows match between Qingdao and Wuhan, the odds for Wuhan looked good, when they came out, because Qingdao will miss one of their foreign players due to red card in last match. They don't have a proper replacement for him and Wuhan is a very solid team. Odds have come down quite a lot though and not worth pre-match anymore. But if anyone is bored, watches/follows the game, you might consider putting a bet on Wuhan live.

I am bit concerned for that bet since Wuhan plays much better on home turf and I would never put a bet on them in away fixture under normal circumstances. I can see the odds @2.0 at the moment for Wuhan win but I would much rather take both to score @1.7 since Wuhan defense looks criminal away. Which player got the red card, Roman Alesandrini maybe? If affirmative I am skipping this match, he is by far the most dangerous Qingdao player.

Great thread, info is really hard to find on these matches so much appreciated for the the stuff you write.

I started following Chinese league much more these last few weeks since I am working from home and often need something in the background to make the time pass faster. I am mostly betting on both to score market since I still manage to find solid odds and the strike rate is quite good. Will chime in with few of my tips so that you are not the only one posting here.

Here is my morning multi which thankfully passed without problems.

That was both to score in first Chinese match and home win in second + a little bit of DOTA.

[tyKiwanuka]

Wuhan defense looks criminal away. Which player got the red card, Roman Alesandrini maybe?

Yes, Alessandrini. Didn't read yet for how many games he will be suspended, but since it was unsportsmanlike conduct, it will be 2+ games imo.

I am bit concerned for that bet since Wuhan plays much better on home turf (...)

There is no home/away They play in a bubble, Group A in Dalian, group B in Suzhou. The pitch in one of the stadiums (don't remember which one) is already in such bad condition that they play on some practice ground nearby. Heavy rains, hot and humid weather on top; this is a wild league, but gratz for your parlay

[Trofo]

There is no home/away They play in a bubble, Group A in Dalian, group B in Suzhou. The pitch in one of the stadiums (don't remember which one) is already in such bad condition that they play on some practice ground nearby. Heavy rains, hot and humid weather on top; this is a wild league, but gratz for your parlay

See, now I fell like a fool. I am basing a lot of my pics on statistics in these leagues I don't usually follow and home/away is the very important part of that analyses. What is even worse these Chinese clubs often behave like there is a home team advantage. I guess it must be an anomaly but check stats a bit. They are definitely slanted in favor of "home" teams.

For instance Hebei should have won easy today if we take away "home advantage". They are much better team IMHO.

[tyKiwanuka]

For instance Hebei should have won easy today if we take away "home advantage". They are much better team IMHO.

They definitely are, thats why I picked them. They were 3.0+ when odds came out and 2.30-ish before kick-off, so initial prices were wrong. Hebei has better foreign players and better chinese players, but thats not always enough in football Shijazhuang is doing pretty good, they have good team chemistry, players are in sync and they still live from the promotion hype a bit. But at some point they will start to fade and lose more games. You can compensate lack of quality only for so long.

I guess it must be an anomaly but check stats a bit. They are definitely slanted in favor of "home" teams.

I didn't notice thus far, because I disregard home/away in CSL for the moment completely (makes no sense when in a bubble^^). But a quick glance at the stats shows Group A doing poor at "home" and being strong in "away" games in general. It's the complete opposite for Group B. Maybe you found a pattern here

[tyKiwanuka]

Shenzhen - Shanghai Shenhua / Shenzhen AH0 @1.77 5/10

Same reasoning as the last bet against Shanghai: They are still missing their best player in El Shaarawy. Shenzhen is on a good run lately and should get a draw here minimum.

Guangzhou Evergrande - Guangzhou R&F / Evergrande ML (1.14)
Hebei - Shanghai SIPG / Shanghai ML (1.41)
Wuhan - Beijing / Beijing ML (1,56)
Parlay @2.508 3/10

Not a big fan of such parlays, but the 3 top teams just are in another league quality-wise. Beijing wasn't very convincing up until now, but showed a good performance in their last match crushing Qingdao 5-2, lets see, if they can back it up, they are super strong team if everything clicks for them.

[tyKiwanuka]

Shenzhen - Shanghai Shenhua / Shenzhen AH0 @1.77 5/10

Nothing to see here, 0-0 FT.

The above parlay is still alive thanks to the R&F keeper, who probably had a huge bet himself on Evergrande


Adding one bet for tomorrow:

Qingdao - Shijazhuang / Qingdao +0.5 @1.89 4/10

Qingdao's Alessandrini was surprisingly only suspended for one game after his red card against Hebei and will be available for them again, which is a huge boost. Another import, who was injured, might give his comeback for Qingdao as well, but only some minutes, nothing more to be expected.
For Shijazhuang there are some bad news, since one of their best chinese players had season-ending injury - and as said before, they already have quite weak chinese players and replacing the better ones is a difficult task. Considering all this, these odds for Qingdao not to lose look very nice and are worth a medium punt.

[tyKiwanuka]

Guangzhou Evergrande - Guangzhou R&F / Evergrande ML (1.14) -> 2-1
Hebei - Shanghai SIPG / Shanghai ML (1.41) -> 2-0
Wuhan - Beijing / Beijing ML (1,56) -> 2-2
Parlay @2.508 3/10

Well, these parlays just suck and always sucked, rightfully lost

Qingdao - Shijazhuang / Qingdao +0.5 @1.89 4/10 -> 0-1

A bit annoying since the game winning goal came very late, but very deserved win for Shijazhuang, Qingdao was just pathetic. I am beginning to hate Shijazhuang, so many lost bets with them. Maybe time to do some Martingale against them

Not a good round all in all, but still slight profit for the season.


Chongqing - Hebei / Hebei -0.25 @1.83 5/10

When you beat SIPG, you shouldn't be -0.25 against poor Chongqing, but -0.5. For Hebei it's vital to take the 3 points here, since it would strengthen their top4 position - and if you want to get into top4, you just have to beat Chongqing. Chongqing themselves won't make the top4 anyway, so motivation clearly on Hebei's side. Chongqing won just two games thus far (Tianjin, Shijazhuang) and I doubt they will make that three in this game. A draw is still possible, but we only lose half stake then.

[tyKiwanuka]

Shanghai Shenhua - Shandong / under 2.5 @2.13 4/10

Not a fan of unders, but often times good value can be found (and you can often hedge inplay). Both these teams have a very good defense and as we know Shanghai is still missing their best player. They had two scoreless draws in their last 3. Shandong can potentially score a lot, but they failed to score even once in their last two matches, so they are struggling offensively and against this Shanghai defense it won't get any easier. Hopefully something like 0-0/0-1/0-2 here

[tyKiwanuka]

Shanghai Shenhua - Shandong / under 2.5 @2.13 4/10

This was relatively easy, some minutes of sweating after Shanghai managed to equalize late in the game, but 1-1 FT. Playing unders is really annoying, I can literally not watch/enjoy the game


Henan - Shenzhen / Shenzhen ML @1.94 5/10

Henan is a mess right now and as it seems they will miss an important striker on top for this game. They have very slim chances to qualify for Top4, so they won't be too motivated. Shenzhen still has very good chances for Top4 and have been doing ok in the last weeks (losing to Guangzhou is nothing to be ashamed of). 1.94 is still ok, but I wouldn't place a bet if it goes below 1.80.

Dalian - Shanghai Shenhua / Dalian -0.25 @1.76 4/10

Shanghai will keep playing with only two import players, which is a huge disadvantage. Dalian has full squad and amongst them some very good import players (Hamsik f.e.). They had good results lately and are still fighting to get into Top4. With a win here, they could catch up with Shanghai. A draw is very likely (Shanghai has good defense as said before) and probably the result Shanghai is aiming for in first place, so the -0.25 gives a little bit of insurance.

[tyKiwanuka]

Chongqing - Hebei / Hebei -0.25 @1.83 5/10

Henan - Shenzhen / Shenzhen ML @1.94 5/10
Dalian - Shanghai Shenhua / Dalian -0.25 @1.76 4/10

Hebei really pathetic, even lost the game, which gives Chongqing some hope for Top4 again, 3-1 FT.
Shenzhen lead 3-0 early, 3-1 FT, no sweat.
Some bad luck again with a late goal against us in the Dalian game, 1-1 FT, but only half stake lost

These are the stats for the season so far:

Profit: +4.72   
Yield: 5.55%   
W-L: 9-9-1
Win rate: 50.00%   
Average Stake: 4.47   
Average Odds: 2.11

Not very happy with those, has to get better, but at least no loss


Tianjin Teda - Shijazhuang / Shijazhuang ML @2.07 4/10

This time a bet on Shijazhuang and not against them. According to Murphys Law, they will not win now But they are really on a good run and 3 points in this match will bring them a big step nearer the Top4. Wuhan and Hebei have very hard matches against SIPG/Beijing, so Shijazhuang could run away a bit from those two in the table. Tianjin has nothing to play for and with 0-1-9 and 7-25 goal differential they are by far the worst team in CSL right now. These two teams will meet in a cup match on September 19th and Tianjin will probably concentrate on that one and rest some players. A 3for3 is also possible (Shijazhuang gets the 3 points in league match and Tianjin gets the cup win). First match was 3-0 for Shijazhuang earlier this season.

[tyKiwanuka]

Tianjin Teda - Shijazhuang / Shijazhuang ML @2.07 4/10

No more bets involving Shijazhuang, they never do what they are supposed to do 1-1 FT


A bet from Chinese Cup for today, starting in around 2 hours:

Guangzhou Evergrande - Henan / Guangzhou AHC -2 @1.775 8/10

Big bet here, since Henan will rest some players and be without any import players today from what I heard. Henan is poor anyway as I wrote above, the last results against poorer opposition and with full squad: 1-3 / 1-3 / 0-4 / 2-5. Evergrande should at least win with two goal margin (push then), but this could also be a blowout like 5-0+.

[tyKiwanuka]

Didn't have a lot of time for China football recently and beginning of a season is always the most interesting/profitable anyway. There is some interesting bet for tomorrow in Jia League though, which is the second division in China.

Suzhou - Shaanxi -> Suzhou DNB @2.00 6/10. Last round in the relegation groups tomorrow and Shaanxi is already safe, while a point for Suzhou is enough to avoid relegation. Shaanxi will not bother with this one and Suzhou would probably sign a 0-0 prematch. Thus DNB is maybe not the most clever choice, 1X pays around 1.50-ish, which one can maybe parlay with some other game.

Another interesting bet would be Guizhou 1X vs Beijing Renhe @1.95, but I won't play it. Guizhou is safe as well and has been doing really good, leading the table. They have better quality, but their motivation for this one is questionable, although everyone always likes to beat the teams from the capital. Beijing are in still in danger of relegating, a draw won't be enough most likely, they have to win. Their big issue is money and the players didn't get their wages for quite some time. Hard to judge, if the players are super eager to avoid relegation. If they do, there is a higher possibility of maybe getting paid, but otoh they are probably pretty disappointed with how things went in the last weeks. Judge for yourself, if this is worth a bet

Guangzhou Evergrande - Henan / Guangzhou AHC -2 @1.775 8/10

This was ages ago, but for the record, it ended 2-0 and was a push thus.

[Trofo]

Suzhou - Shaanxi -> Suzhou DNB @2.00 6/10. Last round in the relegation groups tomorrow and Shaanxi is already safe, while a point for Suzhou is enough to avoid relegation. Shaanxi will not bother with this one and Suzhou would probably sign a 0-0 prematch. Thus DNB is maybe not the most clever choice, 1X pays around 1.50-ish, which one can maybe parlay with some other game.

I thought you have given up on this thread
There was some unexpected (at least for me) results in play offs so I started to skip on the league as well.

Thanks for the info. This is just what I am looking for for my 5x insured & boosted parlay on Sportsbet. Just hope those odds will still be 1.5 or higher tomorrow when I can actually play it.

[tyKiwanuka]

I thought you have given up on this thread

Hehe, no, I normally keep going with the threads I open, but there might be times of silence (same with the CBA thread, where a new season has started again some time ago), when other things are more important. Doing things half-heartedly is not a good recipe when betting, you will just lose money, so better to put things on hold for the time being. And as said, China football isn't that profitable mid-season and with this new format due to Corona things were a bit different anyway.

[BestBitcoinCasino]

This is interesting! Does OP happen to know how popular CSL is in China? Also, do we have foreign bettors who are keen on placing wagers on CSL?

[tyKiwanuka]

This is interesting! Does OP happen to know how popular CSL is in China? Also, do we have foreign bettors who are keen on placing wagers on CSL?

It's not that popular like the big european leagues and competitions, but it has gotten more interest over the last years, because a lot of well-known import players were brought into the league. That being said, there is not much interest outside of China fan-wise. The quality is still lacking overall and it's a very unique league with lots of drama behind the scenes and money plays a big role. It's not organically growing and the teams are often just toys for some big investors. The CCP has some say here and there as well of course, as in all matters in China It's a very capitalistic league in a still officially communist country.

There are foreign bettors for sure, because this league has one big advantage: The time when the matches are played During the week there is very few kind of good football during the day for european betting people. The matches are usually played around noon/early afternoon european time and thus this attracts punters who are bored while waiting for some bigger european matches in the evening.

Suzhou - Shaanxi -> Suzhou DNB @2.00 6/10.
Another interesting bet would be Guizhou 1X vs Beijing Renhe @1.95, but I won't play it.

As expected, Shaanxi wasn't really interested and Suzhou won 1-0 with an early goal in HT2.
Guizhou sent Beijing into Div3 with a 3-0 win, but as said, I didn't have a bet there, but maybe someone else was brave enough

[tyKiwanuka]

One bet for FA Cup for tomorrow.

Jiangsu - Tianjin Teda -> Tianjin +0.25 @1.90

Jiangsu will be playing this one without any foreign players, while Tianjin has 3 of them available, which is a huge advantage and Jiangsu can't be favourite here under these circumstances. Game will be played in neutral location. Some sources say it's the first leg, but it's actually only this one game, no 2nd leg. If the game is tied after 90min, there will be a penalty shootout right away.