It's only been a month since I last posted this chart. As long as 5120 holds, we are looking at another floor-to-floor doubling in only 11 weeks. The floor-to-floor doubling from 1280 to 2560 took 13 weeks. The price has remained above 5000 for 14 days. The price has been above 6000 only 4 days. Does that make 5500 feel a little better? At this rate, $10,000 floor for the New Year?   |
|
|
|
At this rate the value will go nowhere... stuck in a perpetual range of 5400-5700.
It's been between 5400 and 5700 for exactly 7 days. That's hardly perpetual.  |
|
|
|
If you paid with dollars then that would be 25% less dollars you would have to buy bitcoins.
You also perpetuate that bitcoin is only used for buying pot.
LOL, or cooking it. I like the way you think. MOAR Bitcoin! My Precious... |
|
|
|
Guys, is hodl a paradox? When are we supposed to enjoy our riches? I've never had riches before. Should I be living in a richly place now? I've never lived in a richly place before.
I just don't know.
Some time back, I bought my wife an Instant Pot (fancy pressure cooker) with Bitcoin at a 25% discount via Amazon/Purse.io. Told her by using Bitcoin (which was already way up for me), it was the cheapest Instant Pot money could buy.   Then Bitcoin quintupled. Now she looks at the Instant Pot and says, "Most expensive fucking Instant Pot money could buy."   And sits there scheming over all the things she could have bought HODLing instead. So yes. HODL is a paradox. Yes indeed. Nevermind I bought all the dips on the way up. Nevermind I can retire early now. That fucking Instant Pot will always be my HODL reminder. "Yes honey, it's a lovely house, but we could have bought a fucking castle, you idiot!"Wow, glass so half empty there! I bought my dream bike with some of my BTC gains 3 months ago, and even as I expect the market value to shoot the Moon, I will never look back and regret it. Of course I'm HODLing most of it. Life is for living, yo. Don't get me wrong - I don't have any regrets! Your Bitcoin ain't worth a thing if you don't spend it! Just try explaining this concept to me wifey wife.  I don't know about yours, but mine expects perfect prescience. "You knew it was going to quintuple and you spent it anyway??" |
|
|
|
Guys, is hodl a paradox? When are we supposed to enjoy our riches? I've never had riches before. Should I be living in a richly place now? I've never lived in a richly place before.
I just don't know.
Some time back, I bought my wife an Instant Pot (fancy pressure cooker) with Bitcoin at a 25% discount via Amazon/Purse.io. Told her by using Bitcoin (which was already way up for me), it was the cheapest Instant Pot money could buy. Then Bitcoin quintupled. Now she looks at the Instant Pot and says, "Most expensive fucking Instant Pot money could buy." And sits there scheming over all the things she could have bought HODLing instead. So yes. HODL is a paradox. Yes indeed. Nevermind I bought all the dips on the way up. Nevermind I can retire early now. That fucking Instant Pot will always be my HODL reminder. "Yes honey, it's a lovely house, but we could have bought a fucking castle, you idiot!" |
|
|
|
As an aside, since nothing is happening and we are bored, let's have a little philosophical kerfluffle. What is the difference between genius and insanity?
Usually about 15 minutes of patience. |
|
|
|
The last 10 floor to floor Bitcoin doublings since Nov 2012. Average doubling time: 6 months Shortest doubling time: 1 month ($20 to $40) Longest doubling time: 18 months ($80 to $160) The Mt Gox bubble is clearly disruptive to trend. Since recovery, doubling times have only accelerated. This kind of hyperbolic growth is typical of a technological singularity. Think color tv, mobile phones, or the Internet. At this scale, it's really hard to see the recent hardfork or China FUD having much of an impact at all. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2203360.0  .. Also.. I don't know if you know this.. But your chart predicts 10500$+ în 3-4 months.  Let's project! If we assume an average doubling rate of 6 months, then the price floor should remain above: $5120: Jan 2018 $10,240: July 2018 $20,480: Jan 2019 $40,960: July 2019 $81,920: Jan 2020 We may touch $10,000 in 3 or 4 months as an ATH, but it may take another couple months to form a new floor. I wouldn't be surprised if doubling rates slowed down to maybe a year+ after $10,000, though. It's mind-boggling and eye-watering to conceive it's even possible. But this long-term doubling trend has so far survived all kinds of FUD, hacks, and Bitcoin obituaries and only appears to be gaining resilience as adoption increases. It's funny, I just can't see it doubling into this heights so soon. But then again .. I didn't think we would reach 4000 (or even scratch 5000) 3-4 months ago. The new ATH will probably be between 30 Sept < > 2-3 Oct. And the $10.000$ will be probably around Christmas! LOL, how can it be "wrong" when it hasn't happened yet? ATH won't count by the way, it has to be a bonafide floor. (No dips!) That might take months to confirm. That said, I would happily (sooner) be wrong. |
|
|
|
The last 10 floor to floor Bitcoin doublings since Nov 2012. Average doubling time: 6 months Shortest doubling time: 1 month ($20 to $40) Longest doubling time: 18 months ($80 to $160) The Mt Gox bubble is clearly disruptive to trend. Since recovery, doubling times have only accelerated. This kind of hyperbolic growth is typical of a technological singularity. Think color tv, mobile phones, or the Internet. At this scale, it's really hard to see the recent hardfork or China FUD having much of an impact at all. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2203360.0Let's project! If we assume an average doubling rate of 6 months, then the price floor should remain above: $5120: Jan 2018 $10,240: July 2018 $20,480: Jan 2019 $40,960: July 2019 $81,920: Jan 2020 We may touch $10,000 in 3 or 4 months as an ATH, but it may take another couple months to form a new floor. I wouldn't be surprised if doubling rates slowed down to maybe a year+ after $10,000, though. It's mind-boggling and eye-watering to conceive it's even possible. But this long-term doubling trend has so far survived all kinds of FUD, hacks, and Bitcoin obituaries and only appears to be gaining resilience as adoption increases. |
|
|
|
We have all witnessed the fall in price on September 14, part due to Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and part due to rumors around China, the market was bleeding that day. Everybody knows that bitcoin is volatile, but I am sure that you didn't expect waking up that morning and seeing bitcoin down almost 1k$.
Bitcoin has doubled nearly 11 times since Nov 2012, on average every 6 months. That equates to a whopping 160,000% rise. Do you really consider a 25% drop a "bear market"? Wake me up when it falls 75%. Even then, Bitcoin would still have doubled 8 or 9 times since 2012. And probably still recover. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2203360.0 |
|
|
|
People says 1 BTC will be cost 1 Million do you believe in that?
Yes, but by that time $1,000,000 will only be worth $100,000 in today's terms. |
|
|
|
The last 10 floor to floor Bitcoin doublings since Nov 2012. Average doubling time: 6 months Shortest doubling time: 1 month ($20 to $40) Longest doubling time: 18 months ($80 to $160) The Mt Gox bubble is clearly disruptive to trend. Since recovery, doubling times have only accelerated. This kind of hyperbolic growth is typical of a technological singularity. Think color tv, mobile phones, or the Internet. At this scale, it's really hard to see the recent hardfork or China FUD having much of an impact at all. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2203360.0 |
|
|
|
The last 10 floor to floor Bitcoin doublings since Nov 2012, now in more precise graphical form on a log-linear plot using Bitstamp pricing. I arbitrarily chose base 5 because it fits this plot well. Base 2 would have the same number of doublings. Average doubling time: 6 months Shortest doubling time: 1 month ($20 to $40) Longest doubling time: 18 months ($80 to $160) The Mt Gox bubble is clearly disruptive to trend. Since recovery, doubling times have only accelerated. This kind of hyperbolic growth is typical of a technological singularity. Think color tv, mobile phones, or the Internet. At this scale, it's really hard to see the recent hardfork and China FUD having much of an impact at all. |
|
|
|
|
Goodbye $3xxx?? Not even Oct yet.
|
|
|
|
So if i interpreted the OP correctly you are saying that bitcoin will never return to the $3000 level once it falls back to something like $1.5k-$2.5k? I don't think this is likely, as bitcoin prices usually at LEAST triple over a 4 year period(at around halving time).
In between these halvings are usually bear markets which i think is well possible after this year. We could potentially see further dumps that drive price below $3k, but not this year imo.
Short term we might see some more gains, medium term 1-2 years we may turn bearish for a bit but long term we should still be going up.
No, I was thinking after another couple months hovering in the $3xxxs, that it will rise and never fall below $4000 again. A new floor. I agree that a mini bear market might be forthcoming, but I don't think we'll fall too much below $4000, not with Wall Street and more countries gearing up involvement into 2018. I certainly don't think we'll ever fall below $2000 again and $3000 might be a stretch too. |
|
|
|
OP, I know where you're coming from, but all of these price projections are based on past information. This is the whole reason why I don't subscribe to technical analysis--you're looking at past price movements and hoping(!) that patterns repeat themselves. And they most often do not.
Look at the list of all the richest stock market investors. None of them got their billions of dollars by looking at charts. None of them are technical analysts--they usually employ fundamental analysis, like Warren Buffet. That tells me that TA doesn't work. So we can hope bitcoin is headed to $10,000 or more, and it might be, but you can't tell from those charts.
I completely agree with short term TA. But long term trends tend to be immune to short term shocks to the system. Even Warren Buffet advises HODLing index funds, because over the long term, the market has always gone up. He recently won nearly $2 million betting on this long term trend: https://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/2017/09/18/warren-buffett-won-2-million-from-a-bet-that-he-made-ten-years-ago.html Zoom the S&P 500 out from 1977 to today and apply a several year moving average, and you will see a line that does not dip, even with war, disasters, and systemic asshole bankers. The thesis and trend of the overall market remains intact, thus far. And betting on this has most definitely made Warren Buffett rich. Do this with Bitcoin prices since inception on a logarithmic plot and you will see a very similar long term trend. Assuming the fundamental Bitcoin thesis holds true, this long term trend should, hopefully, continue, FUD and all, no TA required. |
|
|
|
Nice, so looking at the last Min predictions only, they put the $5000 doubling at 8 mos in March 2018, and the $10,000 doubling 12 months later in May 2019. Close to the 1 year projection times I posted above. |
|
|
|
0-$1000: 8 years
This took closer to 4 years than 8 years. Bitcoin was activated January 2009. The last time it was $1000 on Bitstamp was March 27 of this year. Eight years and three months. I don't consider ATHs because they are far too unstable. Willy's Mt Gox manipulation gave us our first $1000 ATH, which lasted for what, all of 10 days? It took until March 27 of this year for $1000 to finally establish a floor. I'm not interested in transient doublings but "permanent" ones. I say "permanent" because I'm assuming (hoping, praying) it will never drop down to $1000 again. I suppose for traders, ATH doublings might hold some significance. But for long time HODLers, it's the "permanent" doublings that really matter. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
