Price perspective

[RejectedBanana]

Here's some healthy price perspective for you...

Approximate time BTC price has been between:

     0-$1000: 8 years
$1000-2000: 5 months
$2000-3000: 11 weeks
$3000-4000: 26 days (or only 16 days leading up to Sept 1 ATH, pre-"China FUD")
$4000-5000: 37 days

Talk about an exponential time series... Personally, I think Bitcoin owes $3xxx at least another month or two before waving goodbye forever.

Edit: quoting my post below:

Doubling times might be another way to look at it...

Approximate time to "permanently" double:

from $5 to last time it ever dipped below $10: 7 months
$10 to $25: 4 months
$25 to $50: 2 months
$50 to $100: 6 months
$100 to $250: 2 years (!)
$250 to $500: 10 months
$500 to $1000: 8 months
$1000 to $2500: 4 months
$2500 to $5000: (not yet: 2 months and counting...)

Edit: quoting my plot below:

The last 10 floor to floor Bitcoin doublings since Nov 2012, now in more precise graphical form on a log-linear plot using Bitstamp pricing. I arbitrarily chose base 5 because it fits this plot well. Base 2 would have the same number of doublings.

Average doubling time: 6 months
Shortest doubling time: 1 month ($20 to $40)
Longest doubling time: 18 months ($80 to $160)

The Mt Gox bubble is clearly disruptive to trend. Since recovery, doubling times have only accelerated. This kind of hyperbolic growth is typical of a technological singularity. Think color tv, mobile phones, or the Internet.

At this scale, it's really hard to see the recent hardfork and China FUD having much of an impact at all.

[BitcoinHodler]

     0-$1000: 8 years
$1000-2000: 5 months
$2000-3000: 11 weeks
$3000-4000: 26 days (or only 16 days leading up to Sept 1 ATH, pre-"China FUD")
$4000-5000: 37 days

     0-$1000: 100,000%
$1000-2000: 100%
$2000-3000: 50%
$3000-4000: 33%
$4000-5000: 25% (and has not yet happened by the way).

now that you look at it like this, you can see it was not really a significant rise, you should change your price ranges into percentages if you want to compare them in my opinion. (it will still be similar -faster rise as time passes- but it won't be that big)

the adoption is like this and we are still in the "early adopters" stage which is pretty slow. and it will get faster soon and becomes vertical (with it price will be the same) until the mass adoption and then it plateaus.

[YuginKadoya]

Here's some healthy price perspective for you...

Approximate time BTC price has been between:

     0-$1000: 8 years
$1000-2000: 5 months
$2000-3000: 11 weeks
$3000-4000: 26 days (or only 16 days leading up to Sept 1 ATH, pre-"China FUD")
$4000-5000: 37 days

Talk about an exponential time series... Personally, I think Bitcoin owes $3xxx at least another month or two before waving goodbye forever.

Nice with the words right there and you are predicting that bitcoin will be bye bye after only two months? where is your proof saying such FUD on this forum, you yourself are talking about the price of bitcoin on the many years right now and you are thinking that bitcoin's going to end that way? well I will tell you that bitcoin's price on the upcoming 3 years will be $100,000 mark value and nothing can stop it, but the fake news that have been rising recently have ruining the bitcoin's value and as of now the value is at $3600 and resisting to go up for now.

[RejectedBanana]

Talk about an exponential time series... Personally, I think Bitcoin owes $3xxx at least another month or two before waving goodbye forever.

Nice with the words right there and you are predicting that bitcoin will be bye bye after only two months? where is your proof saying such FUD on this forum, you yourself are talking about the price of bitcoin on the many years right now and you are thinking that bitcoin's going to end that way? well I will tell you that bitcoin's price on the upcoming 3 years will be $100,000 mark value and nothing can stop it, but the fake news that have been rising recently have ruining the bitcoin's value and as of now the value is at $3600 and resisting to go up for now.

Before waving goodbye to $3xxx forever! Bitcoin itself is here to stay.

[Seansky]

0-$1000: 100,000%
$1000-2000: 100%
$2000-3000: 50%
$3000-4000: 33%
$4000-5000: 25% (and has not yet happened by the way).

now that you look at it like this, you can see it was not really a significant rise, you should change your price ranges into percentages if you want to compare them in my opinion. (it will still be similar -faster rise as time passes- but it won't be that big)

the adoption is like this and we are still in the "early adopters" stage which is pretty slow. and it will get faster soon and becomes vertical (with it price will be the same) until the mass adoption and then it plateaus.

I think OP's price ranges is just right after all, it is just a timeline. Looking at yours, it is also a good comparison table too and right now I think the point where adoption will get pretty fast will happen by next year or maybe it will be sooner than that. As I can see it now, bitcoin got more exposure than ever before right after the current price rise so a possibility of mass adoption is sure to happen within a year considering Japan and other countries that legalized it wont declare that it is illegal within the time frame.

[RejectedBanana]

Doubling times might be another way to look at it...

Approximate time to "permanently" double:

from $5 to last time it ever dipped below $10: 7 months
$10 to $25: 4 months
$25 to $50: 2 months
$50 to $100: 6 months
$100 to $250: 2 years (!)
$250 to $500: 10 months
$500 to $1000: 8 months
$1000 to $2500: 4 months
$2500 to $5000: (not yet: 2 months and counting...)

[RejectedBanana]

Let's project.

Average "permanent" doubling time over the last 5 years is just over 6 months. This includes a 2 year doubling from $100 to $250 in 2013 to 2015.

Price has remained above $2500 since: July 2017 (May still be tested.)
Will remain above $5000: Jan 2018
$10,000: July 2018
$20,000: Jan 2019
$40,000: July 2019
$80,000: Jan 2020

To be conservative, if average doubling time doubles to 1 year instead (which seems silly considering the doubling trend has been halving the last couple years), then:

Price will remain above $5000: July 2018
$10,000: July 2019
$20,000: July 2020
$40,000: July 2021
$80,000: July 2022

And if we project the longest doubling time of 2 years henceforth:

Price will remain above $5000: July 2019
$10,000: July 2021
$20,000: July 2023
$40,000: July 2025
$80,000: July 2027

Frankly, I'd be happy with any of these scenarios.

[BrewMaster]

i have not checked all your prices and their durations but i am skeptical because you have mistakes. for example how are you saying from $2500 to $5000 was "not yet 2 months"!

first time bitcoin price reached $2500 it was 2017-5-24 which is exactly 4 months ago.

$1000 was also reached on 2017-1-1 which makes it nearly 6 months (7 days short) to $2500 but you said "4 months".

[fabiorem]

I'm guiding myself with this table here:

https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd

[LoyceV]

     0-$1000: 8 years

This took closer to 4 years than 8 years.

the adoption is like this and we are still in the "early adopters" stage which is pretty slow. and it will get faster soon and becomes vertical (with it price will be the same) until the mass adoption and then it plateaus.

Based on this graph, one could argue we're all Innovators! Less than 2.5% of the population uses Bitcoin. I have very high hopes for Bitcoin once SegWit is used a lot more, especially when the Lighting Network becomes main stream. As far as I understand it right now LN would mean I can create a "small expenses wallet" on LN, and put the equivalent of $100 in there. I can then use LN to send and receive small amounts (buy 2 coffee, sell one to a colleague). All off this off-chain with near instant confirmations and very low fees. That would allow Bitcoin to go mainstream. Faucets could instantly pay small amounts again too.
Meanwhile, large transactions would remain on-chain. If my LN-wallet gets loaded, I can transfer some to any other wallet again.
So far for my future dreams. Back to this graph: note the S-shape that's common for market penetration. Exponential growth can't be sustained forever, at some point it will have to slow down.

All in all I see a bright future for Bitcoin. But do yourself a favour: don't compare a linear thing (time) with an exponential thing (price) without using a logarithmic scale.

[SvenBomvolen]

The speed of bitcoin's price growing is rising in arifmetic progression  so I think after the period of drop and dark news from China bitcoin will come back firstly at 4000$ and fast at 5000$. I suppose to see 6000-7000$ this year already, cause of the speed of bitcoins spreading over the world and it's price growing is just a phenomenal!

[moopser]

I'm guiding myself with this table here:

https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd

Nice forecast, i wish it to be 10k till end of 2018.
Does they have background for the forecasts?

[coolstory]

So according to your word we can still expect higher prices from bitcoin and other coins. This will be eventually and this will make us stressful probably. If we can survive, the bright is future.

[player514]

The speed of bitcoin's price growing is rising in arifmetic progression  so I think after the period of drop and dark news from China bitcoin will come back firstly at 4000$ and fast at 5000$. I suppose to see 6000-7000$ this year already, cause of the speed of bitcoins spreading over the world and it's price growing is just a phenomenal!

I think after this whole China news went down, the growth factor of Bitcoin will slow down. I think by the end of this year, we may be able to see BTC at 5000. After that, there might be a drop due to people selling at 5k and the lack of explosive growth.

[RejectedBanana]

i have not checked all your prices and their durations but i am skeptical because you have mistakes. for example how are you saying from $2500 to $5000 was "not yet 2 months"!

first time bitcoin price reached $2500 it was 2017-5-24 which is exactly 4 months ago.

I'm not interested in the first time we hit $2500 (the ceiling), but the last time (the floor), providing a much more robust estimate of true doubling time. On Bitstamp this was July 26. Today is Sept 24. My 2 month estimate was off by 2 days.

$1000 was also reached on 2017-1-1 which makes it nearly 6 months (7 days short) to $2500 but you said "4 months".

The last time it was $1000 was March 27 and $2500 was July 26. So my 4 month estimate is off by only one day.

Cut a brother some slack?  

[RejectedBanana]

    0-$1000: 8 years

This took closer to 4 years than 8 years.

Bitcoin was activated January 2009. The last time it was $1000 on Bitstamp was March 27 of this year. Eight years and three months.

I don't consider ATHs because they are far too unstable. Willy's Mt Gox manipulation gave us our first $1000 ATH, which lasted for what, all of 10 days?  It took until March 27 of this year for $1000 to finally establish a floor.

I'm not interested in transient doublings but "permanent" ones. I say "permanent" because I'm assuming (hoping, praying) it will never drop down to $1000 again.

I suppose for traders, ATH doublings might hold some significance. But for long time HODLers, it's the "permanent" doublings that really matter.

[RejectedBanana]

I'm guiding myself with this table here:

https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd

Nice, so looking at the last Min predictions only, they put the $5000 doubling at 8 mos in March 2018, and the $10,000 doubling 12 months later in May 2019. Close to the 1 year projection times I posted above.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

OP, I know where you're coming from, but all of these price projections are based on past information.  This is the whole reason why I don't subscribe to technical analysis--you're looking at past price movements and hoping(!) that patterns repeat themselves.  And they most often do not.

Look at the list of all the richest stock market investors.  None of them got their billions of dollars by looking at charts.  None of them are technical analysts--they usually employ fundamental analysis, like Warren Buffet.  That tells me that TA doesn't work.  So we can hope bitcoin is headed to $10,000 or more, and it might be, but you can't tell from those charts.

[RejectedBanana]

OP, I know where you're coming from, but all of these price projections are based on past information.  This is the whole reason why I don't subscribe to technical analysis--you're looking at past price movements and hoping(!) that patterns repeat themselves.  And they most often do not.

Look at the list of all the richest stock market investors.  None of them got their billions of dollars by looking at charts.  None of them are technical analysts--they usually employ fundamental analysis, like Warren Buffet.  That tells me that TA doesn't work.  So we can hope bitcoin is headed to $10,000 or more, and it might be, but you can't tell from those charts.

I completely agree with short term TA.

But long term trends tend to be immune to short term shocks to the system. Even Warren Buffet advises HODLing index funds, because over the long term, the market has always gone up. He recently won nearly $2 million betting on this long term trend:

https://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/2017/09/18/warren-buffett-won-2-million-from-a-bet-that-he-made-ten-years-ago.html

Zoom the S&P 500 out from 1977 to today and apply a several year moving average, and you will see a line that does not dip, even with war, disasters, and systemic asshole bankers. The thesis and trend of the overall market remains intact, thus far. And betting on this has most definitely made Warren Buffett rich.

Do this with Bitcoin prices since inception on a logarithmic plot and you will see a very similar long term trend. Assuming the fundamental Bitcoin thesis holds true, this long term trend should, hopefully, continue, FUD and all, no TA required.

[teilwalL05]

This would really help a lot newbies that are only starting in learning the history of bitcoin and I think this will make a motivation for certain people that the value has jump to a certain increase if they would see how much the price had rise I think many would be interested with bitcoin but I think bitcoin will never gonna go out anytime soon.