Your welcome. Just bc she is scared to come back here for fear of her old emails being released to the public by some unknown actor  doesn't mean she will ever stop writing negative Bitcoin articles. We scarred her for life as we mocked her for being very aware of Bitcoin so early but never managing to buy any and get rich. She was bitter bc she had to wage slave away for a banker propaganda blog, she will always be a bitter hater, its not a surprise. I'm going to take a less popular position and say that she just needs some bitcoiner dick. I'll take one for the team if I have to. |
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Much ado about nothing IMO
3-5% of the worlds population died of H1N1 in 1918 but but, we has medical sciences now we also have far greater mobility and we are packed in tighter Most people had no clue what a "germ" was. The germ theory of disease hadn't even been around long. People had no idea about hand washing or basic sanitation. But yes, that could be offset to some extent by the reasons you mentioned. I just have a tendency to think the media overblows all of this. They're estimating they'll have a vaccine ready in 6-8 months anyway. We'll last that long, at least. |
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Much ado about nothing IMO
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number go down
jojo keep working
Me for the next 2 years:  |
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Ain't nobody got time to read that
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To be fair, the question extended beyond BTC to crypto.
And the bottom is most definitely not in for shitcoins.
Yeah, it should've been two polls. Though IMO the shitcoin bottom is probably in too. |
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Imagine being someone who still thinks the bottom isn't in.  |
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When Ve ge TA ?
Right now the price is a bit overexcited and needs a cup of tea and a lie down. Zat is all.  Do you believe in $400k BTC somewhere in 2021?  Now that's some good hopium! |
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Last poll:  How long you going to let the new poll run, infofront? Until the next ATH is reached? This one could take a while, unless you are amongst the super-optimistic here - which still might be late 2020, at best, no? and probably mid-to-late 2021, more realistically. In other words, we have to get passed our ATH first.. and then figure out how many corrections there might be along the way to a new ATH - assuming we get a new ATH - unlike the naysayer first answer. I'll probably just let it run a couple weeks. I'm in the late 2021 bubble top camp. It seems too obvious, but that's my best guess. Anyway, I decided on this poll after there was some discussion about the next ATH here a few days ago. Hopefully, the poll results will still be up here for posterity when the new ATH hits. |
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Haha!
I was looking at living costs in The Philippines earlier. I thought about nutildah (no homo) & had a little look.
It’s so fucking cheap.
I refuse to move anywhere sweaty. And though I don't know how sweaty it is there it's certainly close enough to other places filled with people sweating to raise my suspicions to Defcon 1. I could buy a rotating army of small Filipinos to sit in fridges and then run out and press themselves against me until they warm up, but I think I'd rather stay put and incur a bit more expense. I was just there for three weeks recently. The cost of many goods is higher than the US. So unprepared food, unless you buy in-season produce, will cost a little more. However, services are so cheap they're almost free. So the cost of prepared food will be much cheaper. I can't emphasize how cheap human labor is there. I had a manicure-pedicure for $3 (my wife insisted). An excellent haircut for $1.20. Massages are around $4-$5 per hour. We had a couple plumbers doing repairs on my wife's house (no sexual innuendo) for about 1.5 days, and it was $35, including parts. So, services are all basically 5%-10% of the cost here. Very sweaty when you leave an air conditioned space, however. |
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Last poll: |
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Also interesting reading: I stumbled across this from 2010, where MA makes countless forecasts - presumably based on his ECM/Socrates - and hardly any of them came to pass, including China becoming the new economic superpower by 2015.75, or at least that would be set in stone by 2020.05... Meanwhile, the US remains the world's largest economy by some $7.2trn.  BTW, anyone read his latest private blog posts? I'm curious what he has to say about the stock markets. |
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Sex is a puerile and animalistic urge that causes nothing but trouble. I had sex once. Or at least that's what they told me it was. I've scoured the internet and couldn't find anyone doing what I did. Everyone else looks like Daddy unblocking Mummy. Look, just remember to rotate the cricket bat counterclockwise, and make sure the rodents of choice are nice and healthy ahead of time. That's the summation of all I've learned in nearly 4 decades on this earth. |
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It's official. Nazi Chads use BTC. Nazi beta cucks use silver.  |
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Actually in some recent articles was named hmmm let me remeber. Flufflypony. What about this chart?  Finally some chart pr0n. I now have no need for a fulffer. |
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Once we get going make sure you reference the MRV-Z and Puell multiple to assess the top  Because, you know, we will be the only ones doing that, so it will work for sure. I think you're overestimating the wisdom of the crowd. When FOMO kicks in and things get really crazy, ala Nov-Dec. 2017, all bets are off. Most retail investors have absolutely no TA knowledge, let alone know about MVRV-Z and shit. We'll be considered "smart money" in that context, hopefully. |
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https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/eqblby/daily_discussion_saturday_january_18_2020/fepviu9/This guy has a different view I guess. I too think $100k would be max price this time but what if... So last year I made a prediction last year on January 1st. I don't think I did too bad. I thought we would bang on 6k a lot more and not just rocket through it. I thought we would double in price for the year, which we did. We just made a little pit stop to 13k first before coming back down and ending the year at 7k.
This year I think we'll double in price again to 14-15k. However, if we have another mini bubble like last year it could put us above 20k price, in which case all bets are off. If we don't break 20k I think we could bounce off of it, something like this. It would look like a big C&H on the weekly which is, of course, a bullish formation.
I've been lurking for a while here and I see talks of the next bubble. My own baseless long term speculation of the next bubble is probably a lot higher than others, which I find interesting. Many are expecting 70k to 100k and unless the long term prospects of bitcoin are already topping out then I feel that is a very low estimate. Generally bitcoin will do about 10x from the previous bubble top, which points to the next top being around 200k. I think it will get to at least that next bubble, with a higher, but less likely, target of 250k.
In fact that will lead to the perfect bubble catalyst, the overtaking of gold's market cap. If bitcoin's market cap = gold's then it would put bitcoin at 380,000 USD/coin. I guarantee you those will be the headlines that will cause the frenzy for the next bubble. "BITCOIN TO BECOME THE NEXT GOLD?" "BITCOIN IS THE NEW GOLD" "NEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM" "BITCOIN TO 1 MILLION USD?" When you see those headlines start to pop up as bitcoin hits 250k, you know that will be the top. That's your sell signal everyone. Don't miss it.
As for the bottom of the next bubble, I hope that bitcoin becomes more stable as time goes on and therefore retrace less. I still expect a big retracement from the top of the next bubble but I hope it doesn't go more than 60%. Even 70% would be harsh. If we have another 80% retracement it will leave me scratching my head as to why it isn't becoming more stable, but I'll still buy back in hard for the next bubble to 1million usd. I'll buy heavily from 100k and below.
Also, I think after this next bubble it will take longer to hit new highs and each subsequent bubble will be smaller in terms of % than the previous. Right now we are on a 4 year cycle, but I think that will increase to 6-8 years cycles. And if you take 250k as the top then to 1million that will only be 4x increase compared to the previous 10x. Smaller bubbles become more likely as the market becomes saturated. Long, long term, like decades in the future, bubbles will becomes obsolete and gains will be limited to a few % a year.
Well, that was a fun wall of text. Have fun trading everyone. I'm still just hodling and won't post that much anymore. Should be a fun two years! According to moonmath $200k is in the realm of possibilities. (for the next 2 years) $400k's possibility starting to become reality only after 2024. Actually, eighty something %% decline this time left me scratching my head as well. I fully expected that the decline would be less (60-70%) in the current cycle, yet we still went like a yo-yo. Actually, it was a few percentages less than prior, but only a few. 94% ($32 to $2) first cycle, 86% second cycle (1160 to $160), 84% this cycle (19870 to 3100). You can see that draw-dawn got slightly lower, not by much. Hence lies the problem. If we keep popping up lower gains (in %) in each cycle (320000% to 57900% to 12400% to, say, 2655% in the upcoming), but always declining in the % of gains, but keeping draw-dawn high at or above 80%, then, inevitably, and quite soon, we would have a reverse cycle where we increase less than subsequent drop and that would be a devastating picture. BTW, 2655% increase (keeping with lower increase trend) in the upcoming is projecting to $82K. TL;DR So far, each cycle the drop is above 80% and changing very slowly, but gains are declining more rapidly (in %) each cycle, suggesting that at some point relatively soon we would have a down cycle (in the next one or two). Personally, I've been noticing the estimates for the bubble tops decreasing. I recall in 2018, some popular tradingview and twitter guys were claiming we were just taking a breather on the way up to $400K. Now there seems to be a prevailing sentiment that we'll top out <=$100K on the next bubble. Who knows? There are so many different prediction models that are all supported by past data, but give wildly different future results. There's S2F, and other power law based models, various exponential models, basic TA models like yours and the one below, etc. I'm leaning toward the S2F power law corridor, which would put us at $100K+ late next year. I intuitively feel this is too high, and the model is too aggressive. However, I've seen various models converging around $100K at the end of next year. Perhaps this will be the final bull market for bitcoin which results in 3,000%+ returns from the bottom. As you noted, the 80%+ drops have been continuing, so perhaps the huge volatility, while being a bit muted on the upside, will continue for at least one more cycle. The last 80% drop could've foreshadowed another massive bubble. That reminds me, I just saw this posted on twitter yesterday: @Josh_Rager
$BTC Unpopular Opinion:
The next Bitcoin peak high will not be as high as most people think
Lots of analysis out there point from $100k to $300k to $1M
Simple rate of return will show you bottom to peak return reduces by around 20% each cycle
IMO, next high hits $75k to $85k  https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1218265268243304449 |
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I'll interject with something nice. Congrats on your BSV investment, jbreher.
*ducks and runs*
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Hopium:
BTC crashed from ~$19,500 in Dec. 2017 to ~$14,500 on Jan. 9, 2018. That's the day Monero reached its ATH of $542, or 0.0347 BTC.
It's likely we'll see an altcoin bubble following the next bitcoin bubble again. If Bitcoin were to reach $100K at the top of the next bubble, then crash 25% when altcoin season hits it's pinnacle, one XMR at 0.035 would carry a value of $2,625.
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You'll find the antipathy works both ways. Looks at all the zerohedge comments along the lines of "BTC is a scam. Just buy gold"
BTW, how was the Philippines trip? Very relaxing. Thanks for asking |
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