Show Posts
I can't believe the lack of intelligence in this thread . . .
All this low bid depth and low volume is ridiculous. Dollar volume is massively more important than BTC volume. Same goes for bid depth. It would be stupid to think that just because someone dumped 50k coins (worth maybe a bit more than $5M) earlier in the year, that it would happen again. Anyone with that many coins has a vested interest in the health of bitcoin. Someone would have to want to damage bitcoin, it just dos not make sense. The same 50k coins would be worth massively more now, why would someone just dump them? Bid sums are near or at ATHs. This is not bearish. As BTC gains value, volume will drop WAY off. Compare dollar volume now to dollar volume in the July to October time frame, we have more dollar volume now. This gives more of an idea of what a slowly increasing market looks like. Healthy growth, not the stupid parabolic growth. People scream about low volume, but we don't want the volume of November, it leads to a bubble!
There does not need to be 10 times the dollar volume to support a price that is 10 times higher. If BTC were $10k, expecting there to be tens of thousands in BTC volume every day would be ridiculous. In fact, if there needed to be 10 times the volume to support 10 times the price, eventually we would have to be trading the entire amount of mined bitcoins every day. If someone were to dump 50k BTC, that would be like someone dumping $38B worth of gold all at once, no market could absorb that without massive slippage. While it is much easier to see 0.4% of bitcoins dumped all at once than gold, it still becomes less likely as bitcoin gains value. It would make no sense to dump them all at once, on an exchange, unless for manipulation, and even then, the coins would have to be re bought for less if it was manipulation. As bitcoin makes gains in usage, there will be less and less volume on the exchanges. It is possible that eventually there would be almost no volume on the exchanges. There is no trading when everyone agrees on the price, bitcoins are only bought or sold as they are actually needed.
Those being ridiculously bearish (there are a very few intelligent bear arguments) are just butthurt over the markets reaction over the last few weeks. Many are only interested in making a quick fiat profit in the volatility that surrounds big drops, so they crave that. They have no interest in the long term health of bitcoin. The bears have stopped using their lines on charts to predict the doom of bitcoin because we have broken most of them. Now the are crying about volume and bid depths. Wake up people, compare the USD bid depths, and coins ask depths to the crash in the spring. Compare news, and sentiment, and proliferation, and new projects. There is not a lot of comparison.
Make up your own minds, but be very skeptical of those trying to create fear. Simple math goes a long way. The lines many have drawn on charts failed to accurately predict recent prices. They can't take into account the news, in either direction. When people try to make it sound like they know what they are talking about, be very wary. That goes for me to, don't take my word for anything, think about it. If the things someone says begins to play at your emotions, there is a good chance you are being manipulated . . .
Sorry for the long post, but I got home late and spent a few minutes catching up on the thread, and got super frustrated. I actually have some fiat sitting around because I believe there could still be a drop as the China issue is still not closed, and I am sure there will be a further attempt to cause panic selling if something goes bad there again. You couldn't make me sell right now for anything though, not even into a "final capitulation".
All this low bid depth and low volume is ridiculous. Dollar volume is massively more important than BTC volume. Same goes for bid depth. It would be stupid to think that just because someone dumped 50k coins (worth maybe a bit more than $5M) earlier in the year, that it would happen again. Anyone with that many coins has a vested interest in the health of bitcoin. Someone would have to want to damage bitcoin, it just dos not make sense. The same 50k coins would be worth massively more now, why would someone just dump them? Bid sums are near or at ATHs. This is not bearish. As BTC gains value, volume will drop WAY off. Compare dollar volume now to dollar volume in the July to October time frame, we have more dollar volume now. This gives more of an idea of what a slowly increasing market looks like. Healthy growth, not the stupid parabolic growth. People scream about low volume, but we don't want the volume of November, it leads to a bubble!
There does not need to be 10 times the dollar volume to support a price that is 10 times higher. If BTC were $10k, expecting there to be tens of thousands in BTC volume every day would be ridiculous. In fact, if there needed to be 10 times the volume to support 10 times the price, eventually we would have to be trading the entire amount of mined bitcoins every day. If someone were to dump 50k BTC, that would be like someone dumping $38B worth of gold all at once, no market could absorb that without massive slippage. While it is much easier to see 0.4% of bitcoins dumped all at once than gold, it still becomes less likely as bitcoin gains value. It would make no sense to dump them all at once, on an exchange, unless for manipulation, and even then, the coins would have to be re bought for less if it was manipulation. As bitcoin makes gains in usage, there will be less and less volume on the exchanges. It is possible that eventually there would be almost no volume on the exchanges. There is no trading when everyone agrees on the price, bitcoins are only bought or sold as they are actually needed.
Those being ridiculously bearish (there are a very few intelligent bear arguments) are just butthurt over the markets reaction over the last few weeks. Many are only interested in making a quick fiat profit in the volatility that surrounds big drops, so they crave that. They have no interest in the long term health of bitcoin. The bears have stopped using their lines on charts to predict the doom of bitcoin because we have broken most of them. Now the are crying about volume and bid depths. Wake up people, compare the USD bid depths, and coins ask depths to the crash in the spring. Compare news, and sentiment, and proliferation, and new projects. There is not a lot of comparison.
Make up your own minds, but be very skeptical of those trying to create fear. Simple math goes a long way. The lines many have drawn on charts failed to accurately predict recent prices. They can't take into account the news, in either direction. When people try to make it sound like they know what they are talking about, be very wary. That goes for me to, don't take my word for anything, think about it. If the things someone says begins to play at your emotions, there is a good chance you are being manipulated . . .
Sorry for the long post, but I got home late and spent a few minutes catching up on the thread, and got super frustrated. I actually have some fiat sitting around because I believe there could still be a drop as the China issue is still not closed, and I am sure there will be a further attempt to cause panic selling if something goes bad there again. You couldn't make me sell right now for anything though, not even into a "final capitulation".
Agree with everything (and thanks for writing what I was far toolazy to write), minus China. I think the second bad news from China was about all the market could take. I dont think anyone really believes the volume on the fringe exchanges are real and very much doubt that anymore bad news from China will cause another panic. More likely to be a shrug.
if everything pans out, $775 will indeed hold for that time frame.
