Analysis

[xephyr]

hmm, I've noticed something. Mining bit-coins is beyond the capabilities of my hardware. In one night I can mine a thousandth of a bitcoin and even that is in decline.

so now I mine litecoins, the difficulty is low enough for me to mine a tenth each night. but I noticed at 0.02 to 0.03BTC per LTC I seem to be able to mine a bitcoin's worth of litecoin faster than I can mine a bitcoin, even though doing that will take me longer than reasonable. But for people with better hardware then me, is that going to affect the market somehow?

That's why mining altcoins is hot right now and vendors are bringing FPGA/ASIC for litecoin to the market fast. Folks who missed easy days mining bitcoin are jumping on litecoin.

[JustAnotherSheep]

[edit] also, people, androids, sheep, this is an analysis thread. keep your petty e-arguments to PMs please. thanksies.

But I'm not arguing 

Anyway, I agree that this, or at the very lowest $400 (gox price) is bottom. It fits my original estimate based on top/bottom ratio of previous bubble, as well as daily SMA100 which determined April floor.

A bit worried that China broke SMA100 but this should be expected with recent news. I just hope the effect won't spread to the western exchanges.

[oda.krell]

if we continue to go down.

We are in hourly oversold right now on mega volume, decreasing rapidly. 3 hours of tapping the underside of $600. High chance of heading back down to retest *something*... I think $330 is too aggressive. To me $400 is more likely (mid-November pit-stop). $450 is certain.

All prices gox.

Yeah, I should really mention time frames. Around 330 is what I expect to be an important level if we have another *major* swing down. As in: major swing #1 was from Dec. 5th  to Dec. 7th. #2 from Dec. 11th to today. If we don't stabilize where we are now (and I would consider breaking 600-625 a good sign that we do), then I expect another major leg down in the coming days. A retest of 450 fits in between, it's just that I don't trade these (smaller time-frame) swings, so I don't really look at them, I admit.

[Zarathustra]

Strong support at $60.-, and at $5'000.- in Dec. 2016 (with resistance at 150'000.-).

[windjc]

I'd love to see some lovely charts about this bounce back, resistance levels, points to determine whether the next leg down tests support or breaks it, etc.

[Pruden]

If you rely on what masterluc said, the process of finding a bottom will be long and painful. Don't rush in too fast.

He also said that in april, just before the obvious bottom of 50$, when he announced he was back in. In case you did not notice, 400$ are the new 50$. 

[cAPSLOCK]

I'd love to see some lovely charts about this bounce back, resistance levels, points to determine whether the next leg down tests support or breaks it, etc.

Look at post 992... that does (informally) what you are asking.  It takes time to make a strong argument with charts and such...  which I always appreciate, but there's a lot of good information in smaller posts as well...  I find it interesting that there seems to be a general consensus amongst the traders.

[Rampion]

So stop "arguing" with the market, and stop dividing investors and traders into "weak" vs."strong" hands, because you sound like cultists when you do.

They ARE cultists. Bitcoin cultists. They don't want to make money, they want to be right.

Yes, some of us have a very pronounced "cultist" side regarding Bitcoin, and we are not in it only for the fiat profits.

Probably that's one of the things that make Bitcoin so resilient, while on the other side greed is the best fuel to make it go viral. Effective combination.

Do you think Satoshi created Bitcoin to "make money"?

Strange assertion coming from someone who despises (and rightfully does so IMO) scamcoins. Normally those who admit being into BTC just to make money are very much into alts pump and dumps.

[cAPSLOCK]

Meh... I think bitcoin is pretty special too but every speculative bubble investment has a hoarde  of robe wearing, chanting, tambourine waving converts.  Bitcoin is no different.  Also there will always be grumpy naysaying, conspiracy seeing bears too.

But the ones who turn from group A to group B are by FAR the most intolerable thing imaginable.

And to bring this post on topic:

When you see the membership of group C starting to peak...  We are finding a bottom.  

PS. Yeah… I know that's mostly bs up there, but I've seen it be true many times before.

[samurai1200]

Meh... I think bitcoin is pretty special too but every speculative bubble investment has a hoarde  of robe wearing, chanting, tambourine waving converts.  Bitcoin is no different.  Also there will always be grumpy naysaying, conspiracy seeing bears too.

But the ones who turn from group A to group B are by FAR the most intolerable thing imaginable.

And to bring this post on topic:

When you see the membership of group C starting to peak...  We are finding a bottom.  

PS. Yeah… I know that's mostly bs up there, but I've seen it be true many times before.

If A = speculators and B = conspira-bears, who is group C? Converts?

[oda.krell]

Yes, some of us have a very pronounced "cultist" side regarding Bitcoin, and we are not in it only for the fiat profits.

Probably that's one of the things that make Bitcoin so resilient, while on the other side greed is the best fuel to make it go viral. Effective combination.

Do you think Satoshi created Bitcoin to "make money"?

Strange assertion coming from someone who despises (and rightfully does so IMO) scamcoins. Normally those who admit being into BTC just to make money are very much into alts pump and dumps.

Excellent point, never thought of it like that. Goes into my btc quotes file.

[cAPSLOCK]

Try number 2 for the price to break resistance at 630.  Second chance?

[samurai1200]

Try number 2 for the price to break support at 630.  Second chance?

My guess is a ping (bounce off resistance).

Market depth shows lots of ask pressure and hardly any bid pressure. First 1000 btc on ask @ $645, first 1000 on bid @ $580.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html just fyi

[cAPSLOCK]

Try number 2 for the price to break support at 630.  Second chance?

My guess is a ping (bounce off resistance).

Market depth shows lots of ask pressure and hardly any bid pressure. First 1000 btc on ask @ $645, first 1000 on bid @ $580.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html just fyi

I changed my post to use the correct word, but too late I see.

Looks like 2x now its bounced off...  Now let's see if it will challenge support.  I have a pile of cash on Gox.  Makes me nervous.  I want to reenter just to have it back in a safe wallet.  But I don't think its time yet.

[Ivanhoe]

Try number 2 for the price to break resistance at 630.  Second chance?

Done.

[ajax3592]

Where to generate our own "fibonacci retracement charts" ?

[lebing]

Ohi guyz I heard u liek volatilities
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1t8j7c/proof_that_btc38_takes_cny_for_btcltcxrp_etc/

If it ends up being the case that the chinese gov is simply retarded and they are going to let the exchanges back on, we will be back over previous highs by march for sure.

[Rampion]

Yes, some of us have a very pronounced "cultist" side regarding Bitcoin, and we are not in it only for the fiat profits.

Probably that's one of the things that make Bitcoin so resilient, while on the other side greed is the best fuel to make it go viral. Effective combination.

Do you think Satoshi created Bitcoin to "make money"?

Strange assertion coming from someone who despises (and rightfully does so IMO) scamcoins. Normally those who admit being into BTC just to make money are very much into alts pump and dumps.

Excellent point, never thought of it like that. Goes into my btc quotes file.

I always thought that Bitcoin was designed on purpose to make it skyrocket very fast - it's the best way to make it go viral because there's nothing that motivates more than pure profit/greed. In fact, there are times in which I entertain the idea that Bitcoin is just a "trojan horse" which real purpose is to spread the blockchain (which has many other revolutionary purposes apart from being a way of transferring value) as fast as possible.

[samurai1200]

Try number 2 for the price to break support at 630.  Second chance?

My guess is a ping (bounce off resistance).

Market depth shows lots of ask pressure and hardly any bid pressure. First 1000 btc on ask @ $645, first 1000 on bid @ $580.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html just fyi

 Guess was incorrect, whales took over.  Now to test 700. I  have a really hard time seeing a breakthrough here.  But I could be wrong again, because whales.

[lebing]

Try number 2 for the price to break support at 630.  Second chance?

My guess is a ping (bounce off resistance).

Market depth shows lots of ask pressure and hardly any bid pressure. First 1000 btc on ask @ $645, first 1000 on bid @ $580.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html just fyi

 Guess was incorrect, whales took over.  Now to test 700. I  have a really hard time seeing a breakthrough here.  But I could be wrong again, because overstock.

FTFY
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/19/overstock-com-begin-accepting-bitcoin-2nd-half-2014/