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361  Economy / Economics / Re: Demand / Production imbalance on: June 04, 2011, 12:15:33 AM
i think he is talking about gpu hardware production not bitcoin production.
362  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTCUSD historical volatility on: June 03, 2011, 11:01:57 PM
try formatting the cell, custom format.

363  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTCUSD historical volatility on: June 03, 2011, 10:38:27 PM
it's time, price, amount

the time is unix (epoch) time (not sure if there is a difference or just different names for the same thing)

1282038389 = Tue, 17 Aug 2010 09:46:29 GMT

see http://www.epochconverter.com/

or use the formula I gave above in a spreadsheet.
364  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTCUSD historical volatility on: June 03, 2011, 10:26:01 PM
in your browser there should be something like save page as. save it as a .csv or .txt  and then import it into Excel or whatever you want to use
365  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTCUSD historical volatility on: June 03, 2011, 10:14:12 PM
i think the time is unix time. [edit: originally said UTC but meant to say unix time]

you can convert it into a more human readable form if you use a formula like this in Excel (where A2 is the UTC cell)
 
=DATE(1970,1,1+(A2/(60*60*24)))+TIME(MOD(INT(A2/3600),24),MOD(INT(A2/60),60),MOD(A2,60))

that'll give you day/month/year hour:min

you can use just

=DATE(1970,1,1+(A2/(60*60*24)))

to get day/month/year

hope that helps
366  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin sticker shock looming? on: June 03, 2011, 05:22:39 PM
no it means 1 old bitcoin will = 1 million new BTC or 1000 kBTC

1 new BTC would = 1 current uBTC
367  Other / Obsolete (buying) / Re: will pay 2 BTC for 1 BTC with traces of that pizza on it on: June 02, 2011, 10:31:39 PM
this can make an interesting example of how bitcoin transfers may not be 100% anonymous all of the time. 
368  Economy / Economics / Re: Price vs Difficulty Charts - indicators for buying or mining on: May 31, 2011, 10:31:36 PM
Take the time series and compute the correlation between D(t+x) and P(t) as a function of x.   Graph the results.

Anybody going to do this?  If not, please send me the time series or a script to extract it from the block chain and I will post the results.



Hi smooth,

i put the data I have here
https://spreadsheets0.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Arbegqx_2nKadEl5czMxZWZqazlFUzBiQkkzMFYtVEE&gid=0

Price data is available from MtGox in csv form and difficulty etc. from http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash you can use /number at the end of the blockexplorer query to change the block size, e.g. http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash/2016 will give data for ever 2016 blocks)

 Edit:

sorry I said above that I got price data from MtGox. In fact I got MtGox from here http://bitcoincharts.com/about/markets-api/
369  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: We need some simple instructional bitcoin videos. on: May 29, 2011, 11:41:40 PM
other explanation videos could be things like:

backing up a wallet
how to move your BTC when you change your computer
370  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [PAID] Publish result of Days Destroyed calculation on: May 29, 2011, 10:54:08 PM
sorry Akiron,

just realized that your graph takes into account the 1440 minutes in a day factor that you mentioned in a post above.

the % of cumulative days destroyed/total BTC days at >20% seems quite high to me. does the calculation for days destroyed need to be corrected for the 1440 minutes in a day too?
371  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [PAID] Publish result of Days Destroyed calculation on: May 29, 2011, 10:32:10 PM
hi Akiron,

is the y-axis scale correct. looks like it's out by a factor of 100 if jerfelix's previous calculations were right.
372  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: transaction fees - any stats? on: May 29, 2011, 11:53:31 AM
great charts ThomasV.

If I'm looking at it right for recent blocks tx fees/day are ~20 BTC. Very rough estimate say ~200 blocks/day (I know it should be 144 blocks if we assume 10 minutes between blocks, but block creation has been faster than that recently) - that gives a very rough ballpark number of 0.1 BTC in fees/block. Not far off smell's 0.075 BTC/block average (difference probably from actual block creation has been >200 blocks/day recently).

good to see the trend is increasing in the Bitcoin Report charts.

I actually downloaded Python yesterday and was thinking of teaching my self how to write a script to create a csv file with the block # and total tx fee in that block # as suggested by PLATO. Never used Python before and haven't coded anything since some C++ classes I did in college over 10 years ago but have been thinking for a while to learn some new skills and this seemed like an interesting project.
373  Other / Obsolete (selling) / Re: will do repetitive mundane tasks for btc. on: May 29, 2011, 11:25:45 AM
sounds like mechanical turk for bitcoin would be a good idea.
hopefully someone will build something like that

https://workforbitcoin.com/forum.php?id=1 ?

it's a start but not exactly the same as mechanical turk. imagine if amazon allowed payment of mechanical turk tasks in bitcoins - tasks could also easily be priced at sub US $0.01 in bitcoin.
374  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Estimating/Visualizing total mining network power consumption? on: May 29, 2011, 11:17:36 AM
you're right maybe I should have just given the power number in W rather than MWh/day , so ~3.39 MW.

People are used to the unit of energy in kWh from their electricity bill, so units of power in kWh/day make some sort of intuitive sense.
There is a book I like called "Sustainable energy without the hot air" which has a good explanation of units of energy and power and the author explains his reasoning for using different units to explain things. http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/withouthotair/c2/page_24.shtml. The whole book is available for free by the way.
375  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Estimating total mining network power consumption? on: May 28, 2011, 11:48:39 PM
I've seen some numbers in other threads before estimating this.

This site has a lot of data on the different hardware including J/MHash etc.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparison

The 5850 card you mention seems be ~1.85 Mhash/J or ~1.85 Mhash/s per W. I think I've seen other people use a very rough number like 1 Mhash/s per W - probably not a bad estimate when you consider all the different types of hardware, AC/cooling costs etc.

Using 1 Mhash/s per W, we get 0.024 kWh/day per Mhash
3.390 Thash/s = 3.390*10^6 Mhash/s = (3.390*10^6 Mhash/s *0.024 kWh/day per Mhash) = 81360 kWh/day = 81.36 MWh/day
376  Other / Obsolete (selling) / Re: will do repetitive mundane tasks for btc. on: May 28, 2011, 10:15:26 PM
sounds like mechanical turk for bitcoin would be a good idea.
hopefully someone will build something like that
377  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [PAID] Publish result of Days Destroyed calculation on: May 28, 2011, 03:39:37 PM
This BitcoinDays Destroyed number still doesn't provide a perfect picture, it is just a much better measure than looking at raw spending totals.  Here's an example:

1.  Someone who mined 50 bitcoins exactly one year ago spends them.

Consider a slight variation on that ... example 5:
5. Someone who mined 50 bitcoins exactly one year ago spends 1 BTC.

In Case 5 only 1 BTC was spent and 49 BTC was returned as change.  There would still be 18,250 Bitcoin-days destroyed, even though the coins representing all but 365 of those Bitcoin-days remained in the same wallet.

I understood the first 4 examples, but not that example 5 you just explained.  Why are all 18250 BTC days destroyed?  Why not just 365?  Is it because some part of the 50 that was originally minted is finally spent, regardless of how many?  If so, why?

if I understand it correctly when you receive bitcoins it's like having a "bitcoin note" of the denomination of the amount that you received them. so if you mine 50 BTC you get a 50 "BTC note" say. For simplicity, say you only have that 50 BTC in your wallet. You spend 1 BTC, so that "note" has to be broken - so it's like all 50 are spent, 1 BTC goes to the address you sent it to and the change of 49 BTC is returned to an address you own. So now you have 49 BTC in your wallet that are fresh (i.e. zero days old). For the BTC days destroyed calculation it's like all 50 BTC have been spent (so days destroyed = 50 x # of days you've held them) even though in reality you've sent 1 BTC and still own the other 49.

hope that's right. someone can correct me if I'm wrong.
378  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [Bounty] Publish result of Days Destroyed calculation on: May 28, 2011, 03:27:37 PM

As far as I can tell, I'm getting more or less the same results (with little differences here and there for some reason). You can see my full output here: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/28441300/output.txt


maybe I'm missing something but are there some errors in these numbers for BTC days destroyed? Some blocks have negative values for days destroyed.

For example see block 65711 has -151.03 BTC days destroyed. There are 48 other blocks in this csv file with negative numbers for days destroyed.

Very interesting data and analysis by the way. thanks to all concerned.


Well, looking at the Block Explorer for block 65711, it seems that the previous block 65710, which holds the redeemed output, actually has a timestamp that is later than block 65711. So, apparently the calculation is "correct", but I honestly don't know why the dates are backwards...

good spot on the time stamp inconsistencies. I was looking at the block explorer to try and make sense of the numbers but didn't notice that. Maybe someone else can explain why the time stamps are out of sync with the block numbers
379  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [Bounty] Publish result of Days Destroyed calculation on: May 28, 2011, 02:48:34 PM

As far as I can tell, I'm getting more or less the same results (with little differences here and there for some reason). You can see my full output here: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/28441300/output.txt


maybe I'm missing something but are there some errors in these numbers for BTC days destroyed? Some blocks have negative values for days destroyed.

For example see block 65711 has -151.03 BTC days destroyed. There are 48 other blocks in this csv file with negative numbers for days destroyed.

Very interesting data and analysis by the way. thanks to all concerned.
380  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Huge ~40% Drop in Network Hashing Power (5/27/2011) on: May 28, 2011, 01:55:13 PM
Seems like it's going up anyway.  Embarrassed But, consider this: There's someone, or a group of people with a considerable part of the network's computing power, in the order of the Thash/s.  They only allocate some of that power right before difficulty increases and turn it off right after difficulty increases, taking advantage of the screwiness for the first blocks, in hopes others miners will leave and the difficulty increase forecast actually gets skewed, and as the change approaches and some people leave, they gradually put their power in, ensuring a steady profit. Maybe I'm just nuts, and yes, this is one pretty tinfoil hat.

i'm pretty sure it doesn't work like this. how can these mystery miners take advantage of the "screwiness for the first blocks" after the difficulty change as you call it. It's only a screwiness in the calculated hash rate stats that happens after the difficulty change. The difficulty is set for a 2016 block period, it doesn't change. So for a certain hash rate you should get the same return on average for a particular difficulty regardless if it's just right after that difficulty has been set or if it's just before the difficulty is going to be readjusted
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