That model make a forecast for Bitcoin price with each 4-years cycle. That's all about that model. Models basically will be built up by inclusive parameters. The best model will be the one the can give the most accuracy with the least inclusive parameters. Best models will be fitted with the Parsimony rule.

Unfortunately, all models are wrong as the famous statistician George Box said and PlanB emphasizes it in his personal website.

Many people distort what they use as tool to spread news, FUDs and create hype or panic on the market. Assume that the model is accurate generally, there are points real price and predicted values on the model are not fitted, and people skip those points in their statements.

There are 2 reasons:

• They naively believe in the model and don't notice about those inaccurate points. Even if they see those points, they don't raise questions "WHY?"
• They know those points, know reasons (that I doubt they don't) but intentionally skip it to say what they want to use on media.

Back to the S2F model, there are many parameters that have yet been included in the model. In the future, there are decisive parameters that we have yet known at the moment. Parsimonious rule does not mean future decisive parameters won't have big weights to be included in the model. If the model skips those parameters, it will become more seriously wrong.

Trust and go first for trades, without Escrow is very vulnerable to scam.

• You can trust anyone but if you trust a wrong trade partner, you will lose your money.
• On the online space, the one is talking and making trade with you can be a hacker, not a real person you trust.
• Make sure to verify the person you are trading with is the real person you trust. You can require a signed message.
• The safest method is Escrow service from trusted Escrow provider

Bitcoin transactions are irreversible, please always remember it when you are on trades.

Edit your post with the article from Binance Binance Spot Trading System Upgrade Notice (2021-04-20)

I believe you don't know the forum rule on plagiarism and forgot to add a source link. Do it before it is too late, my friend. Do it first and read more about the forum rules

• Unofficial list of (official) Bitcointalk.org rules, guidelines, FAQ
• Plagiarism rule is #33 in the list

Negative news are prepared by whales but news are spread further by retail investors, weak supporters and haters. Haters wait for falls of bitcoin to make their noisy voices. People include the retail investors and weak supporters listen to the voices from haters and believe it is the truth.

Whales are observing how news are spread out and keep smiling when their preparations make sense. 

Bump it after many months of silence.

Again, new all time high of total hashrate kicks off sudden drop of hashrate. Reasons, this time, are blamed on flood, rain, coal plants, etc. but do you think any of them are real problems?

Without flood, rains and any visible reasons you can think of, there are scheduled plans for instant shutdowns of big numbers of mining rigs.

It happens and repeats many times. Hashrates top up, price tops up, then accidents come out.

• How Accidents in Chinese Coal Mines Are Affecting Bitcoin Mining
• Story from News
  
• More things behind such as TA indicators
• Time to read, filter and digest news

If the operator of loan service feel unsafe about you (how they judge it is a personal secret), that person won't give you any loan.

Imagine that a stranger knocks the door of your house, and when you open the door, that stranger ask "Hey, please give me a loan". Will you accept that deal?

---

In the forum, you can work but it takes time and you have to spend your decent contributions. If you have no skills, no efforts, no contributions, you won't get anything in the forum.

As the rule of life, things are different when you are at the bottoms (in the forum, it is your rank). When you move up higher and higher, your life will become easier. Please start with the hardest part, from the bottom.

It is classic. Not only about this, but also about your capital. Traders or investors will be killed if they don't have any capital left in hands.

• Protect your capital must be your priority. You can close your position with a draw and a small deduction from trading fee. Sometimes, it is your success, not failure.
• If you win big, you will have two components in your account balance: Initial capital + Big profit. Let's take do the followings
  
  • Take your initial capital out of your account
  • Protect it carefully and don't use it if you don't lose all the big profit in your account.
  • If you lose all your Big Profit, don't use your initial capital to trade or invest immediately. Spend few days or even weeks to think of your mistakes, learn from losses to improve yourself
• In crypto market, it is not hard to get big profit, the difficult part is how to keep your profit, then your capital

The market has its ups and downs. Every market has its own cyclical periodicity. Bitcoin has a four-years periodicity and others have theirs that are different than 4 years.

It will but when? In this year or 4 or 5 years later?

Do you really think so? Never. In worst performance, bitcoin will reach $1 million after 3 or 4 more halving rounds. I believe it will happen sooner, in the next 1 or 2 halving rounds (in 2024 or 2028).

$100,000 for this year, $300,000 in 2024 or 2025, and $900,000 to $1 million in 2028 or 2029.

You did not check the given question and details from OP.

You don't have to accelerate it. Your transaction (hours ago) has 106 confirmations that are more than enough.

You should know the common confirmation number is required by exchanges and services are 1 to 3 confirmations. Most common required number is 3 (confirmations).
Which sort of deal you did? Is it a peer-to-peer trade?

To be safe in the future, you should consider Escrow services from trusted members.

• Recommended bitcointalk escrow services

Your transaction got 106 confirmations and it is more than enough to consider as a safe transactions. More than 3 and 6 confirmations will make your transaction becomes very safe, irreversible.

What do you mean about Pending here?
What do you mean about "via my Electrum wallet"?

I guess you're talking about

• You use your Electrum wallet to send your bitcoin to exchange or service wallet. It is true?
• Pending is on your exchange/ service account. Is it true?

If two questions are True. You have to contact the company to credit the amount of bitcoin to your account balance. Sometimes, exchanges get technical problems that break their automatic credit process for deposits.

Before Elon Musk, the market has Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan) and John McAfee and some others. I don't see it is annoying but the beauty of crypto market.

Altcoins are pumped and dumped with news. News can be released on many channels and Twitter is one of channels which are used mostly by influencers.

Newbies have to pay cost to learn the market. They have to pay fees to learn market actions and practice to control their panic and FOMO decisions. Tweets from Elon Musk help them to learn faster in recent months.

• Bitcoin Data Sentiment Analysis
• My side project: a chart that tracks Bitcoin Twitter Sentiment and Tweet Volume (Announcement thread)

Other crypto companies will try to do their IPOs. It will be a trend but not all companies' submissions will be approved. A few of them will get approvals but the general noise they make will be helpful for crypto market.

In crypto market, noise is enough to make people crazy and is it a basic rule in any financial market. 'Buy the rumor, sell the news' as the saying goes. IF you believe it will be a noisy trend, let's choose a good assets and wait for future news to sell them.

Please move your topic to Trading discussion. Move topic button at the left bottom corner. Click on that button and choose Trading discussion board to move it.

---

$16,000 means you have a good capital, can be a big capital in some nations, to begin.

My reminders for you

• If you are new in crypto market, only hold or if you want to trade, trade with Spot trading only.
• Leverage trading will kill you (liquidation) when you are not understand the market and leverage trading
• Bull market is perfect for holding so you should choose good coins and hold.
• Trading (even you do it with Spot trading) might cause losses when you sell at dips because of panic and uncontrollable emotions
• It's not my financial advice with specific coins, but you should focus on old altcoins. DeFi are all hyped and risky

Simple thought

• If BTC repeats the 20x of parabolic curve in 2017, the price for this 2021 parabolic curve will be about $400,000 (= $20,000*20)
• The Stock to Flow model shows the price would be $100,000
• The Mayer Multiple bands shows the price could touch the top upper band of Overbought area that is around $144,000. However, it it touches to that top, it will be hyped to higher a little bit
• All of these give me my simple thought that BTC can reach $150,000 to lower than $200,000

I am a simple investor.  

Two more websites

• Table for price changes in different time frames (1H, 1D, 30 days, 90 days, 1 year, 2 year, ATH)
• Screener of Messari.io Customize your screener with many options for price changes in USD, BTC, ETH during different time frames)

This is key. Whales manipulate the market and their disclosed activities are used for this purpose.

On-chain analyses are interesting but two ways to extrapolate the meanings of data and apply it for investment or trading. Such data is more meaningful for investments.

I agree with your opinion. Additionally, whales manipulate the market and enrich their balance (in fiat and in BTC). They can increase their BTC balance from 1000 to 2000 and reserve very old BTC - years ago, for price manipulation in the future with sudden transactions from old UTXOs.

Your information is partially correct. On Binance, you will have to fully verify to use Binance P2P. See info in [1] and [2]


[1] https://academy.binance.com/en/articles/binance-beginner-s-guide
[2] https://www.binance.com/en/terms

---

Kucoin
The limit of daily withdrawal for non-KYC account is 5 BTC [3]. I am not sure Kucoin have updated it yet and reduced the daily limit.
[2] https://support.kucoin.plus/hc/en-us/articles/360015102254-About-KYC-Verification

With the hyper inflation of cryptocurrencies, you can not use it total marketcap in a bull run to conclude anything.

• Total cryptocurrencies are increasing, everyday
• New cryptocurrencies contribute too much cap for the total marketcap. New projects are overvalued and you can not judge their quality, values with their caps

If you want to conclude anything about growth, look at the Min as Yearly lowest price of bitcoin. I would rather use it than the Yearly Highest Price. For bitcoin, it is on uptrend. Ups, downs, corrections, bubbles, the yearly lowest price of bitcoin is in an uptrend.

The same can be done for total marketcap and with bear market, you will see how the market has been grown. Shit projects now are contributing too much caps but in bear market, they contribute 0.