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3601  Economy / Speculation / In the eye of the storm.. on: June 17, 2014, 09:23:57 PM
The price is hovering around 50% of the all time high on bitstamp.

Surely I cannot be the only person who has noticed the surge in company adoption of bitcoin in the last few months. Huge online players are accepting bitcoin this year.

I would be amazed if all significant e-retailers who have not publicly announced they are to accept bitcoin have not privately integrated it into their systems. The benefits are obvious - basically a no brainer, especially for the titanic e-retailers like amazon who have razor thin margins.

A few points strike me about these recent moves by silicon valley occuring in the shadow of the last bubble.

1) these companies are big enough to have political connections and clout (i see a real battle (of the lobbyists) in the US between the banking sector and silicon valley in the coming years as the financial sector is increasingly disrupted)

2) my brother said to me last weekend, why would i buy bitcoin, i cant use it. Wrong. Utility has arrived.

3) i think the usual bearish argument of (multibillion dollar) company adoption = price negative due to immediate conversion back to fiat may well be correct in the very short term. But a much stronger medium term effect is joe public seeing 'bitcoin accepted here'  appearing whenever they buy anything online in the next two years. A pizza, a pc, some towels whatever. The point is that bitcoin is no longer a joke currency but is being legitimised right now. All the people writing bs comments under every article appearing online on MSM sites are going to go awfully quiet as this process rapidly continues worldwide.

4) The price must rise if the currency is to be used globally, especially by titans like amazon. And it must rise a lot.

It is simple to me, limited number of coins versus a growing number of purchasers trying to get in.

The bears on here say where is the money coming from to drive the next bubble. I say: the very same place it has on every previous bubble - joe public. Remember only 100,000 people have more than ten coins out of a population of 7,000,000,000. Don't underestimate the thirst of the great unwashed to try to grow wealth and buy into bubbles (see gold late 1970's, south sea bubble etc..). Every single person on here felt their head spin when they first learnt about the properties of bitcoin - there are many further successively larger waves of people who will follow in our footsteps.

Barring disaster it seems logical that bitcoin ('bit gold' eh Nick Szabo) is likely to become a modern day gold rush across the world in the next 1-3 years. I think the china bubble was simply a taste of what is likely coming down the line.

Timing the next blast off I will leave to luckier people. All I know is that I am positioned for the next move up and I am prepared to wait until it does.

Potential triggers for me are likely to revolve around US investment houses frontrunning the US investing public into bitcoin. The upcoming bitcoin auction by US gov is likely first step, SEC approving an ETF will probably be second (price will front run this no doubt). Wall street already know the strengths and weaknesses of bitcoin and could easily take the price 10x higher whenever they like.

I hope you are ready  Grin

3602  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dump all of your Ghash Coins before next $400 - $300 crash on: June 15, 2014, 03:09:33 PM
"This user is currently ignored."

I will be doing my monthly purchase tomorrow.

3603  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2014, 06:59:40 PM

Maybe he just wants to sell slowly @ high prices without creating panic before the BAD news come out and the market crashes!

Now I remember why you were on ignore. *click*
3604  Economy / Speculation / Re: No rebound on: June 13, 2014, 09:56:13 AM
It's clear for me that there won't be any rebound to 620s or more, for at least few weeks if not even months.

2-months, daily candles graph:


So, 400s here we come. SELL SELL SELL!

Price is already 607 on stamp. It seems common sense that the US auctioning 30k coins privately won't have any meaningful effect on the price.
3605  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dump 3k bitcoins and we break $600 on: June 12, 2014, 05:08:21 PM
You are looking at it from a completely negative attitude...you don't mention what happens if someone buys 3k BTC which is just as likely as someone selling 3k

Precisely. Bear FUD poster posts bearish commentary. Can we get some slightly less obvious trolls in here please?

3606  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2014, 09:19:53 AM
based on a potential fractal I noticed.

please tell me this fractal is from 2012  Grin



seriously, just add a couple zero's onto those prices and boom! it's like time travel!  Grin

Here's a rough version of my fractal idea (bearish case scenario):





I am happy to be corrected, but your last few predictions were not exactly prophetic.

We may wobble up and down a bit before the next move but day traders really cannot see the wood for the trees!
3607  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 11:02:27 PM
Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is).  And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.

By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).

Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that.  If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!
BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.

You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric.

No it is not. When you are trading it is the volume of the base currency that is relevant and not the volume of the quote currency.

Rubbish. If the price of a BTC has risen 50x in a year then clearly expecting the same trading volume in BTC is ridiculous.
3608  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 10:58:42 PM
Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is).  And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.

By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).

Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that.  If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!
BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.

You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric, and that is spread across all exchanges rather than concentrated on Mt Gox only.
3609  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 10:52:22 PM
A little perspective here people. The price doubled in a month. One slight pullback in the midst of massive internet company side adoption and it is bear central here.

Hilarious how twitchy you all are.
3610  Economy / Speculation / Re: Monday Afternoon (US Time), Where is this this big phucking 'announcement'? on: June 11, 2014, 06:13:02 PM
As long as I don't see a direct link between this (and other adoptions) and speculative fiat on the exchanges, I don't give a damn.



No, in five years I will definitely be OUT OF BITCOIN. I only plan to stay until the 2017 big bubble (mania phase). After that there will be only bagholders.

I wish I could see the future with your clarity!
3611  Economy / Speculation / Re: Some Bearish Observations. on: June 10, 2014, 10:30:41 PM

The only way to win at this game is to have more information that the ones you're playing against. When you HODL, you win because you are playing against the large chunk of humanity who have not yet focused their attention on bitcoin. They're going to buy one day, and you and I know it, but they don't. We're not necessarily smarter than they are, we just got here first. When you play the short-term fluctuations, you are playing against people who have immersed themselves in all publicly available information on bitcoin, and may even be privy to information that the rest of us don't have. The odds are that you and I can't beat them!

Fantastic point.
3612  Economy / Speculation / Re: Some Bearish Observations. on: June 10, 2014, 06:27:44 PM
Time to buy.

the Mat the cat contrarian indicator has switched! buy buy buy buy!

Yes when he admitted he only held ~13 btc I remember thinking , "why bother?".

Mat you are churning in and out of btc so often you are bound to lose. You must recognise that where the price goes from here short term is simply a guess, a toss of a coin, which incidentally you just have to react to.

The market cannot be predicted with a chart or TA by you in a way which will deliver consistent returns or more importantly beat a buy and hold position.

Just imagine how more productively you could have spent your time if you had bought, held and simply .. waited for time to pass!

If I were you I would buy back in, wait a year for btc to do its thing, then play wall st trader with a fraction of your gains. Yes it is still gambling that the bull market will continue, but you must have a a belief in bitcoin to still be here right?

Either way keep us informed Wink
3613  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50% increase and everyone thinks 10k (again) on: June 09, 2014, 10:25:13 AM
The charts look ready for some China FUD. I'm not saying it's coming, but it's been absent for too long.

A pause in prices and its time for you to FUD you mean?
3614  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 08, 2014, 04:30:13 PM
this "stabilisation" period could be good but it could also mean weak hands maybe sell their stacks caused by fear of low volume

Boredom before we move up again is no bad thing. Once the price moves back up towards 800 we are off to the races. The price was ludicrously oversold with the bear fud rubbish permeating everywhere. Not surprising after doubling that bitcoin will wait and draw breath before launching Wink
3615  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 01, 2014, 08:44:57 PM
This free beer shit is getting out of hand. Enough already

Party pooper! The man who made the thread is buying a round.

If they are still going around: 19cvuCCHrr5TQv6mtDwxJz711BVZ9XuPke

Smiley
3616  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 01, 2014, 07:54:10 PM
100 stamp BTC support at 638 Smiley

Just need someone to do a 1500 coin market order on stamp to ruin the bear action Smiley
3617  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 01, 2014, 07:46:53 PM
Its 1500 back to 605 on stamp and around the same to get back up to 680. Thin market.

Stretched Market. Overstretched, which means it it will overcompensate in the opposite direction of in which it was stretched.

At last! I get to pat myself on the back for selling my BTC (again) in anticipation of a correction, and not a moment too soon!

Its not over yet Mat. It could easily move back up.
3618  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 01, 2014, 07:42:16 PM

Its 1500 back to 605 on stamp and around the same to get back up to 680. Thin market.
3619  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 01, 2014, 07:40:21 PM
Second round of dumping.

As long as we keep a 6 in front of things then this weekend has been a nice move up.
3620  Economy / Speculation / Re: POLL: Pumping Bots on: June 01, 2014, 05:37:12 PM
I am wondering if you bought back in Mat.
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