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3621  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 08:40:29 AM
3622  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 08:02:49 AM
Indeed.  One step at a time.
3623  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 07:47:22 AM
But, r0ach is always talking about costs of production

Common beginner error.  Miners always have a wide range of production costs.  The production cost that is publicly reported is an average.  But the standard deviation is significant.

That means as prices fall below the average “cost of production” the top quartile producers go broke.  Meanwhile the bottom quartile producers are still highly profitable and pumping out product.  

The average cost of production falls as the price falls as inefficient producers are driven to the wall, often with little or no impact on global output.  It is not unusual for major miners to take advantage of this mnarket pressure and actually step up production to squeeze out the competition, further depressing price through dumping.

So you are a fool to rely on “production costs” to prop up commodity prices.

From a miner’s perspective, if your production costs are not in the bottom quartile, you need to exit that resource because you have no business being there.


3624  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 07:31:41 AM
Watching the silver price slowly fall back to $6 over the next decade will be even worse.
3625  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 05:53:14 AM
Never again will do anything like that. Just lower my head and assent to everything.

Don't say stupid shit.  They don't want to book you, because then they have to fill out paperwork.
3626  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 05:29:42 AM
Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the USA are the Five Eyes.  If one knows it, they all know it.  They use regulatory arbitrage between them to gather intel, sourcing data with from the country with the weakest privacy protections.  

Brexit will cut off Five Eyes access to EU data. 
3627  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 05:27:06 AM
We already have UBI. It’s called social security.  

Oh fuck, social security... those fuckers really scare the hell out of me! They don't need proof or anything to go against you!

Is it the same in your country?

So long as you do not accept any money from social security, they will leave you alone.  If you do though, they will make your life most uncomfortable, including deliberately misstating your financial affairs to try to trap you. 
3628  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 05:20:40 AM
We already have UBI. It’s called social security.  
3629  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 05:15:37 AM
time for a 5.1kg wrench attack

AirPods for scale

3630  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 04:34:28 AM
I think it specialises in path optimisation, so the shortest path should be readily ascertainable, acknowledging that the issue is non-trivial at scale.

With the hashing operation, the public key is either a match or it isn't, so also readily ascertainable.  

We can get into a discussion about whether the D-Wave has 'real qubits' but I will get out of my depth technically really fast so will need to defer that point to others.
3631  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 04:26:53 AM
The latest D-Wave supposedly has 2,000 qubits and hasn't done shit.  Make of that what you will.

https://www.nature.com/news/d-wave-upgrade-how-scientists-are-using-the-world-s-most-controversial-quantum-computer-1.21353
3632  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 04:19:52 AM
I don't think the author is fudding.  I don't know how many qbits it would take to make an attack on early addresses feasible, but those qbits are certainly coming eventually.

I did the math once.  If we pointed all of the world's computing resources at hashing, it would take us until the heat death of the universe many times over before we cracked a single early address. 

Current QC is a joke. 

Eventually is a really long time away.

Even if proper QC was invented tomorrow, we could just hard fork to a QC hash algo.
3633  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 03:18:25 AM
Quote
If Klein put them into an encrypted wallet, it's likely no one will spend those coins until quantum cryptography begins freeing them up.

Coins mined in the first two years of bitcoin's existence are not safe from quantum attack.

I have long said that Satoshi's bitcoin are a quantum canary. Once we see them begin moving, we will now that someone in the world has a functioning advanced quantum computer.

It's just too big a prize not to be the first thing that you do with a QC. I would even expect governments employees to try this if they had access.

If, on the other hand, we see all Satoshi coins move at once, that means someone has the private key.

Because Satoshi kept each 50 BTC distribution from his mining in a separate wallet. And even QC takes a lot of time to crack even those early wallets. Months or longer I would expect.

The other possibility is that someone with a QC could crack wallets and then not move the bitcoin, waiting to move it all later. But this is unlikely because they must fear that someone else is attempting the same thing and could beat them to the punch if they wait.

So, if we see say 5 or 10 Satoshi wallets move all at once, then that should also be considered a QC event as well. 10 wallets, randomly chosen from the Satoshi blocks, would not be a huge risk to wait to move.

The point in waiting is that the minute a Satoshi block moves, the market will react very negatively, because we can expect those coins to be freed up and reach the markets, bringing the price down.

So, whoever first has a QC and begins targeting bitcoin, they will move those coins and sell them quickly.

Then the sh!t will hit the fan.

I wonder how the devs will react then. Should we move to lock down those early coins so they cannot be stolen? Historically the devs have opted against such things.

hmmmmm

Meh.  Its about time we had some QC FUD.  I have been missing it. 
3634  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 03:16:07 AM
Anything requiring physical access isn't scary.
3635  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 02:32:23 AM
He is bringing up a lot of Bcash talking points so it’s probbably a Bcash dev sock puppet
3636  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2018, 02:11:28 AM
Some of the stuff that Franky1 is talking about is complex / can’t be fucked working through it.  But it’s pretty clear that a significant proportion of what he is saying is bullshit.  So safe to ignore the balance of what he is saying. I think best just to put him on ignore. 
3637  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 27, 2018, 10:32:34 PM
we're fucked

Bring it motherfuckers.  I got bags to fill.
3638  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 27, 2018, 10:10:22 PM
Ok given the objections to the USA for the $100k party, and opsec issues with going to a third world country, I’m calling for us to party in Belgium.  Home of the GooseBull.  Frites, biere et Bitcoin. 
3639  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 27, 2018, 09:30:45 PM
Isaac Asimov predicts the world of 2019, in 1983:

https://www.thestar.com/amp/news/world/2018/12/27/35-years-ago-isaac-asimov-was-asked-by-the-star-to-predict-the-world-of-2019-here-is-what-he-wrote.html

In unrelated news:





3640  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 27, 2018, 12:58:14 PM
{monstrosities snipped}
Would you believe, as a PHEV?
it seems to be our grisly future. my holiday cottages all have elec stations outside now, so the city dwellers can plug in their diddy cars.
more to your point, yeah jag/land rover doing it
and lots of them already have mitsubishi 4 wheelers. 2nd generation even

Having driven a new Disco with air shocks and e-locker floating over rough terrain and watched pickups on coil springs bounced haplessly around, I have to say the new tech is very very good.  No matter how much it offends one’s sensibilities.  

And then the plugs ins will be torque monsters with no gearbox.  No shit to break.  God knows I have broken enough gearboxes, diffs and drive shafts in my time.  I hear Li burns well tho. 
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