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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 10 (6.8%)
H2 2019 - 15 (10.1%)
H1 2020 - 29 (19.6%)
H2 2020 - 26 (17.6%)
H1 2021 - 12 (8.1%)
H2 2021 - 28 (18.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (4.1%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.7%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (2%)
2024 or Later - 15 (10.1%)
Total Voters: 148

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21289557 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
bitserve
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December 28, 2018, 07:50:33 AM

But, r0ach is always talking about costs of production

Common beginner error.  Miners always have a wide range of production costs.  The production cost that is publicly reported is an average.  But the standard deviation is significant.

That means as prices fall below the average “cost of production” the top quartile producers go broke.  Meanwhile the bottom quartile producers are still highly profitable and pumping out product.  

The average cost of production falls as the price falls as inefficient producers are driven to the wall, often with little or no impact on global output.  It is not unusual for major miners to take advantage of this market pressure and actually step up production to squeeze out the competition, further depressing price.  

So you are a fool to rely on “production costs” to prop up commodity prices.




Another thing he always dismiss is that if demand is lower than offer from already produced silver there is no fucking need to mine any more (if the cost of production were higher than the market price).
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VB1001
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December 28, 2018, 07:52:48 AM

Confused, I thought that this morning I would find some more merit in my account (not because of my publications in WO), in a few hours the thread of How Many Full Nodes Bitcoin Online? I increase visits considerably, but 0 merits.

It's a reflection, having a coffee in the morning. Roll Eyes
bitserve
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December 28, 2018, 08:00:41 AM

Confused, I thought that this morning I would find some more merit in my account (not because of my publications in WO), in a few hours the thread of How Many Full Nodes Bitcoin Online? I increase visits considerably, but 0 merits.

It's a reflection, having a coffee in the morning. Roll Eyes

You have received much more merits than most people here during the past couple of weeks. You are doing very well, but merits are very scarce and have to be shared among a lot of really great posters (much more than merits available unfortunately). Don't be greedy Wink

P.S.: Most people that have already merited the OP of a good thread, don't do it anymore unless some very exceptional post comes. Really, don't care about the merits, they don't mean that much.
HairyMaclairy
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December 28, 2018, 08:02:49 AM

Indeed.  One step at a time.
VB1001
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December 28, 2018, 08:15:53 AM

Confused, I thought that this morning I would find some more merit in my account (not because of my publications in WO), in a few hours the thread of How Many Full Nodes Bitcoin Online? I increase visits considerably, but 0 merits.

It's a reflection, having a coffee in the morning. Roll Eyes

You have received much more merits than most people here during the past couple of weeks. You are doing very well, but merits are very scarce and have to be shared among a lot of really great posters (much more than merits available unfortunately). Don't be greedy Wink

P.S.: Most people that have already merited the OP of a good thread, don't do it anymore unless some very exceptional post comes. Really, don't care about the merits, they don't mean that much.

Ok, it's true, I have a good average, it's just impatience for Nº/100, it's not greed, I assure you.
bitserve
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December 28, 2018, 08:17:03 AM

Confused, I thought that this morning I would find some more merit in my account (not because of my publications in WO), in a few hours the thread of How Many Full Nodes Bitcoin Online? I increase visits considerably, but 0 merits.

It's a reflection, having a coffee in the morning. Roll Eyes

You have received much more merits than most people here during the past couple of weeks. You are doing very well, but merits are very scarce and have to be shared among a lot of really great posters (much more than merits available unfortunately). Don't be greedy Wink

P.S.: Most people that have already merited the OP of a good thread, don't do it anymore unless some very exceptional post comes. Really, don't care about the merits, they don't mean that much.

Ok, it's true, I have a good average, it's just impatience for Nº/100, it's not greed, I assure you.

YOu will have your Nº100 before you reach 120 activity for full member. Don't worry anymore Wink
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December 28, 2018, 08:20:38 AM

Theres a lack of merit in the system possible, its not actively available perhaps is the problem.    I literally only give 1 at most now so I dont run out, I applied as source because not enough have done so I guess .    Its a bit of tight supply overall

Quote
Common beginner error.  Miners always have a wide range of production costs.  The production cost that is publicly reported is an average.  But the standard deviation is significant.

I think its Warren Buffet who says he loves the cost of mining for gold on the high street.  His chain of pawn brokers is gaining gold at a substantially easier price then he could gain anywhere else.   Same for silver, theres a ton of silver spoons out there and so on.    In wars they just scrap every metal fence in sight, theres always supply of sorts and it should feedback to a higher price but doesnt have to be so immediately I guess
  
I know demand should be alot more then just silver sitting around but thats alot of slack in the system and maybe every metal has this type of availability.   Maybe scrappage is a bigger factor in weaker economies as anything goes.     Any time theres some kind of squeeze and people start referring to mining costs as a hard bottom, it probably isnt that hard and the market will supply via other means if hands are weak.  I think thats just how it goes, its why we get a spike down because in the moment price doesnt reflect the longer term considerations
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December 28, 2018, 08:24:27 AM

Confused, I thought that this morning I would find some more merit in my account (not because of my publications in WO), in a few hours the thread of How Many Full Nodes Bitcoin Online? I increase visits considerably, but 0 merits.

It's a reflection, having a coffee in the morning. Roll Eyes

You have received much more merits than most people here during the past couple of weeks. You are doing very well, but merits are very scarce and have to be shared among a lot of really great posters (much more than merits available unfortunately). Don't be greedy Wink

P.S.: Most people that have already merited the OP of a good thread, don't do it anymore unless some very exceptional post comes. Really, don't care about the merits, they don't mean that much.

Ok, it's true, I have a good average, it's just impatience for Nº/100, it's not greed, I assure you.

YOu will have your Nº100 before you reach 120 activity for full member. Don't worry anymore Wink

Yes, this is the goal, then I will dedicate more time to learn English ...
Thanks. Wink
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December 28, 2018, 08:37:01 AM

We don't know exactly when Virgin Roach filled his Bat Mitzvah money bags with Silver and sold all his Bitcoins but Silver average closing price for 2015 was $15.66 https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart and he sold all his Bitcoin in 2015 and went into Silver. Its doubtful he got more than $300 for each Bitcoin so had he hodled he would have, even after the nasty bear market, over 10x profit. Instead he made a mentally ill choice and sold his coins at the worst possible time to buy one of the few investments on Earth that has done jack shit for the last 3+ years. Silver is basically the same price now as it was in 2015, give or take a bit depending when he got in. Most likely he has lost a little bit while most assets on the planet were in a huge bull market. He would have been better off putting it in a Wells Fargo checking account and getting .1 percent interest per year. At least then he could have practiced talking to a woman without doing the schizo face flat effect thing when he went inside the bank. Cheesy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjvujPPMwpg Here is a paranoid schizophrenic being interviewed. Notice the stone face he has the whole time and the elaborate tales of persecution he concocts. This guy had delusions about Nazi spies in his family involved in narcotics gangs that were after him and undermining America by rigging elections. He was put in a hospital by his family. This is what Virgin Roach will devolve into if he isnt saved by Gembitz at the 100k party.
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December 28, 2018, 08:40:29 AM

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December 28, 2018, 08:42:50 AM
Merited by micgoossens (1)

I never would come to the 100k party under my alias in this forum, my opsec was crushed long ago. Like said, I don't care if this user is connected with my real life persona, doesn't change a thing.

Oh and good luck getting my name from any records, you'd have to hack the hospital records I was in, it was never in any news or made public.

Don't worry, I'd never look for your name or anything. No point for me to do that, as I'd never cause any harm to anyone. I just mentioned it for all of us readers here, to be careful when we write about ourselves.

A guy in Turkey published in Facebook that he had 400 BTC. IIRC, he was kidnapped, tortured, and his 400 BTC stolen.

I have sometimes researched the IRL identities of a few people here. Just for the sake of it. I guess all the clearly identifiable ones already know they are somewhat exposed. And I don't remember anything about it.

But how do you know it's the same person. If I wanted to hide my real persona, I would just use somebody else's user name and avatar and send you on a wild goose chase.
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December 28, 2018, 08:47:37 AM
Last edit: December 28, 2018, 09:08:52 AM by bitserve

I never would come to the 100k party under my alias in this forum, my opsec was crushed long ago. Like said, I don't care if this user is connected with my real life persona, doesn't change a thing.

Oh and good luck getting my name from any records, you'd have to hack the hospital records I was in, it was never in any news or made public.

Don't worry, I'd never look for your name or anything. No point for me to do that, as I'd never cause any harm to anyone. I just mentioned it for all of us readers here, to be careful when we write about ourselves.

A guy in Turkey published in Facebook that he had 400 BTC. IIRC, he was kidnapped, tortured, and his 400 BTC stolen.

I have sometimes researched the IRL identities of a few people here. Just for the sake of it. I guess all the clearly identifiable ones already know they are somewhat exposed. And I don't remember anything about it.

But how do you know it's the same person. If I wanted to hide my real persona, I would just use somebody else's user name and avatar and send you on a wild goose chase.

Because I am good at what I do. When I am sure, I am. Sometimes I don't. That being said, yes, one of the best ways to increase your opsec is to include some false data (profile poisoning) to break any profiling attempt but, when incoherencies can also be detected and while you may not find out who the IRL person is, you will know it is a false positive. If you try to pose as someone else, probably the extended profiling comparison will show some mismatches unless you are really good at it.

Anyway, we are talking here about almost amateur level profiling.... when you have the resources of a state agency I would bet more than 80-90% of us would be easily identified one way or another. I know I would be, for example. I don't care.

P.S.: Your opsec is not really good (at first instance at least). But I guess you already know that.
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December 28, 2018, 09:16:16 AM
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I don't think the author is fudding.  I don't know how many qbits it would take to make an attack on early addresses feasible, but those qbits are certainly coming eventually.

I did the math once.  If we pointed all of the world's computing resources at hashing, it would take us until the heat death of the universe many times over before we cracked a single early address. 

Current QC is a joke. 

Eventually is a really long time away.

Even if proper QC was invented tomorrow, we could just hard fork to a QC hash algo.


You can be sure the NSA will have advanced QCs years before anyone else. They could have all addresses cracked before anyone even knows they're capable of doing so.

now that is my brand of tinfoil

Quantum computing is almost as much as a buzz word as blockchain. Many like to throw the term around yet do not fully grasp the concepts that are involved.

If you have a basic grasp of physics you can skip down to the article cited below..if not this video might help at least get you familiar with the basics. It presents 5 different levels of a persons understanding of what a quantum computer is and isn't. This is a sort of fluff piece by Wired and it came out several months ago I believe but is still relevant. The growth in this field over those few months is astounding and the constant innovation is eerily similar to what classical computing experienced at first. I am not sure if Moore's law will be applicable but it is growing extremely fast and I would expect within 10 years there will be a functioning usable machine capable of factoring large primes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWJCfOvochA


One of the current key problem's is fault tolerance. Another is keeping coherence at a steady state. These problems are getting solved and more reliable and robust systems are being built. Which leads us to the cutting edge..
Quote
Abstract

Topological insulators are materials that have a gapped bulk energy spectrum but contain protected in-gap states appearing at their surface. These states exhibit remarkable properties such as unidirectional propagation and robustness to noise that offer an opportunity to improve the performance and scalability of quantum technologies. For quantum applications, it is essential that the topological states are indistinguishable. We report high-visibility quantum interference of single-photon topological states in an integrated photonic circuit. Two topological boundary states, initially at opposite edges of a coupled waveguide array, are brought into proximity, where they interfere and undergo a beamsplitter operation. We observe Hong-Ou-Mandel interference with 93.1 ± 2.8% visibility, a hallmark nonclassical effect that is at the heart of linear optics–based quantum computation. Our work shows that it is feasible to generate and control highly indistinguishable single-photon topological states, opening pathways to enhanced photonic quantum technology with topological properties, and to study quantum effects in topological materials.

Quote
Topological photonics has the advantage of not requiring strong magnetic fields and features intrinsically high-coherence, room temperature operation and easy manipulation.

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/9/eaat3187



Quote
"A lot of researchers are talking about quantum information processing with photons, and even using frequency," said Lukens. "But no one had thought about sending multiple photons through the same fiber-optic strand, in the same space, and operating on them differently."

https://phys.org/news/2018-12-block-quantum.html

 

The assembly language's are being crafted right now..it is waiting for quantum softwares and algorithms to be written for it's use. 
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December 28, 2018, 10:20:52 AM



I would say that quote is bollocks.

How many people across the world own a piece of gold jewellery or a gold coin?

Gold is far more decentralised than bitcoin (mining and coin distribution is far from decentralised)
micgoossens
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December 28, 2018, 11:02:11 AM

tomorrow will be a new session of BTCpoker ... 8 session then payout
hope to be lucky and to see some good action cards...

non stop sit & go's ... four way and HU looking forward Wink

I want to see a shot of you at the final table!

Just got back and got smoked the last 2 days (every fucking flush against me got there!). Cheesy

Next session probably sunday or somewhere next week i Will take a shot..... from yesterday i didn’t Made one, wasn’t going to very well Roll Eyes so didn’t had to much time for Fun  Undecided
Also played for handed sit and go tournament winner takes all, but mainly HU tournaments non stop each of us playing 2 of the others So two tables (not 8 or more crazy shit, cause we sit together as always and needed to be a bit of Fun talk etc as well)
1 tournament HU .... i reraise all in on the turn and the other dumbassfriend of me called with nutflush draw(only)
To hit flush on the river (that was kinda like my day as well ) Roll Eyes
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December 28, 2018, 11:10:09 AM

Ok given the objections to the USA for the $100k party, and opsec issues with going to a third world country, I’m calling for us to party in Belgium.  Home of the GooseBull.  Frites, biere et Bitcoin. 

En ..... =(flemish part of Belgium- not the french ) et = and french
                                                                          En= and flemish
Wink
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December 28, 2018, 11:22:13 AM
Last edit: December 28, 2018, 11:35:04 AM by realr0ach

Watching the silver price slowly fall back to $6 over the next decade will be even worse.

You are JayJuanGee level stupid if you think it's possible for silver to go to $6.  Metals are the only assets on the entire planet not currently in a bubble and they're floating around cost of production already.  It requires moving more than twice as many tons of earth to get one ounce of silver now as when the price was last $6 as well.  That's actually a shocking speed in reduction of supply for a resource we actually need, unlike bitcoins which nobody actually needs for anything.

There's a double bottom in on the 1 year silver chart, and another double bottom in on the 5 year chart.  The bottom for silver is already in and right as we're speaking it already started it's bounce.  This is why nobody can stand the kikes.  You were talking just the other day telling people to "watch the GSR" and convert gold to silver (probably just stole that from me).  Now in typical kike fashion you started lying and claiming the price is going to collapse instead. Probably just making up jibberish to try and get people to buy your imaginary shitcoins.



micgoossens
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December 28, 2018, 11:30:42 AM

Just call me Reynolds.
Ryan?
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December 28, 2018, 11:34:39 AM

Marcus Anonymint's posts...I mean "lambie slayer", are just too dumb to respond to now.  Micgoossens, you wouldn't happen to be a mechanical engineer?

https://www.reddit.com/r/MGTOW/comments/aa2x42/well_lads_it_happened/

Me engineer, you have Some high thoughts of me
THX
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December 28, 2018, 11:36:36 AM

Maybe some sort of shitcoin engineer.  Making sure all the scams are working okay, processing all the bitconnect signups, creating a gambling site with 50:1 house odds.
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