10 days from idea to game was also considered optimistic by many, as well as the $4,000 revenue from selling non-redeemable ingame items, in the first 3 days since launch. Miracles happen when the right people are around  I hope it works out great Is there a download yet - or are people still just buying gold? From Sunday the game databases including character (and possessions) registry, building registry and city map are viewable online. The browser-based interactive version of the game is scheduled to launch 2014-11-16. |
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I think your adoption number estimates of 1,000,000 (or even 1/100th of that) is over optimistic.
10 days from idea to game was also considered optimistic by many, as well as the $4,000 revenue from selling non-redeemable ingame items, in the first 3 days since launch. Miracles happen when the right people are around |
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I probably share some views - the fact that the game is being seriously considered as a bolster to the Monero economy makes me cringe.
It is just math. Multiply the number of players with the average balance of ingame currency: - Currently ppl have bought in for 180 XMR on average, but it might go down to 5 XMR perhaps when the game has enough players. - For a simple game like this that actually generates you money in the lower levels, it's easily possible to get 1,000,000 players. - 5 * 1,000,000 = more XMR than currently in existence. Serious? Your judgement is seriously impaired. Otherwise a nice post. |
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That being said it's going to take months for the crypto kingdom game to start effecting the market as its only at the phase where the XMR whales are buying CKG at the moment with their hoards.
At present the average buyin per character in the game is 180 XMR, and about 75% have spent from their existing stash. When Version 4: Economy (2015-1-18) launches, the modest target is to have 1,000 players. (It has been online for 2 months already by then). The sales of ingame gold by then amount to 500,000 gold (about 130,000 XMR). In addition the characters may acquire other items perhaps worth 20 XMR per character (about 20,000 XMR). It will not yet be a great influence with these numbers, but: a million = 1,000 * 1,000.  |
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To alleviate the dearth of gold in the citizens' hands, one of our good nobles has agreed to sell 1,000 gold and HM has accepted it to be included in the auction. The total will now consist of 11 lots of gold. It is not impossible that more new lots will be added if the demand stays strong.
The winning price has now been lowered to 0.21 as a result. So that the possible future overallocation would not lift your old bid above the winline after you have made a new higher bid, it is now possible to cancel bids IFF you make a higher bid for the same or higher amount. The possible canceling of the lower bid must be done simultaneously with the placing of the higher bid.
About 2 days left until the auction ends.
Situation currently:
1,000 @ 0.40 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
1,000 @ 0.30 smooth
1,000 @ 0.27 iluvbitcoins
1,000 @ 0.26 djjacket
1,000 @ 0.25 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
1,000 @ 0.23 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
1,000 @ 0.23 Bassica
1,000 @ 0.22 dnaleor
2,000 @ 0.22 Lord NewLiberty
1,000 @ 0.22 luigi1111
----------------------------------
1,000 @ 0.21 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
If the auction would end now, the price would be 0.21 XMR/CKG.
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Good ideas. I will give the approximate version number when I believe they could be implemented. (Note that there are 9 versions per real-year so it comes quite fast  ). Im pretty sure betting will be allowed, a man has to be able to spend his hard earned moneritos... earned by his servants, i mean... xD
Version 3. One more idea i want to throw in: Taken from the wonderful Star Wars An Empire Divided MMO, which basically failed because technical reasons, not concept: The Quality of components.
When building a new (lets say) iron mine, the possible outcomes are:
(D100 roll)
1- 01-20 Poor quality iron: decay of items made with it (weapons, armor, house structure, carts for merchant caravans) is a +25% faster.
2- 21-80 Average Iron - Non modifier to standard decay rate
3- 81-95 Excellent Iron - -25% to rate of decay
4- 96-100 Legendary Iron - Provides a -70% to rate of decay
Version 12. Prospector - Profession:
LEVEL - DESCRIPTION
0 - You heard Bobo Burger on the tavern that there are some dudes that can smell gold. His cousin knew someone that once saw one.
1 - Know the difference between a mountain of dirt and a mountain of actual stones.
2 - You are proficient with shovel and bucket, and have caved several traps and tombs. But thats another story.
3 - You are capable to instruct your workers when to use shovel, when pickaxe and how not to get buried themselves while doing it. +5 to D100 roll when discovering mine quality
4 - You are able to design a plan in order to exploit a mine more or less efficiently. +10 to D100 roll when discovering mine quality
5 - A Veteran prospector, can find quickly the best spots for looking for good quality ore. +15 to D100 roll when discovering mine quality.
6 - You are the Legendary Tunneler.Other miners come to see you from far lands to try to learn from you. +20 to D100 roll when discovering mine quality
Version 5. Spendings: If lets say to build a mine cost 1,000,000 moneritos and 25,000 stones, Hiring the services of the Royal Cartographer School (For 500,000 moneritos) gives you a reroll possibility if the quality output of the mine is not the desired. That money will go to gross the vaults of our fearless leader, or maybe a part distributed in cascade to the rest of the Nobles, etc.
Version 9. |
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Monero's marketcap is 2.7 million euros, and that is not exactly much. For example I command a larger wealth. Price is down, true. So it is time to look at the fundamentals. As I see it, the people in the center positions in Monero development and economy (me included) have not lost heart during the price fall. The fall has punished all coins equally, Monero is not a special case, nor an exception. Why Monero is still the best and only altcoin bet that I have invested in, is because of the following: - "The legitimate CN coin" despite what trolls say. - Very large developer base, including the 7 core developers. - The MEW providing support for economic and service infrastructure side. - The open question about emission rate change, which has caused uncertainty, will be voted in MEW with result in 2 weeks. - Crypto Kingdom has XMR as ingame currency and is already valued at 260,000 XMR. - There will be a "Blockchain.info" type webwallet very soon. Despite that I see the future as very bright, especially related to other altcoins, Monero will continue to suffer if the general market continues its turmoil. I view the current prices as an opportunity regardless, and have resumed buying. |
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The buildings will be "enter-able"? Im envisioning something like the old old Ultima Online mixed with Zelda-like rooms... i am right? So we can just decide between different arrangements on a given 8x8 plot, etc... Am i in the same page?
Boy i remember my old days at Luna Trading in UO Europa... The BOD Empire that we run with Vita Drakonia i think it was the most massive organization in the whole game xDD
I am busy with the building editor currently. Some sneak peeks: - A quadrat is 10 x 10 meters and is the smallest lot. The lots inside the first City Walls will be 1x1, 2x1, 3x1, 2x2, 3x2 and 3x3 quadrats. - Buildings must be built with stone with 1 m thick walls including interior walls. - A building can be 20 m high, and therefore up to 6 stories + roof garden if the intention is to maximize the number of floors. - Realistic arching rules for supporting the great mass of stone may necessitate the use of buttresses and supporting columns, and limit the span of arching to 4 meters (with low arching that does not eat the height and acts as the floor of the upper story) or 12 meters (with high arching that uses up height at a 45-degree angle, making it impractical to build above it, but suitable for cathedrals and great halls). - Latest in the online Version 3: Sandbox (2014-12-14), every "room" (actual room in a building, and other space, such as street, lawn or rooftop) will be enterable and contain a local Trollbox-style chat. - The same version will allow customizable activities that the owners can install in the rooms, and the visitors use them. |
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why does it make sense to "defend" if the goal is new users?
If the existing owners do not believe the coin is worth anything, it IS not worth anything, and it makes no reason for anyone to buy. Markets speak what the value is. Both existing and coming owners collectively form the market. some people are more likely to buy at 135 (value driven) and some people are more likely to buy at 600 (hype driven). you want to attract both types ... why artificially set ANY price if ur goal is adoption?
I had to postpone proposing Monero to my investment newsletter (people who are collectively worth 100s of million$). The reason is that it is too small at present, and liquidity is so weak that even a €10,000 investment (a minimum for the midrange of my clients) would move the price 30% (as is the case right now as we speak). To make Monero a realistic alternative for serious investors, it needs to be bigger. We therefore have to sacrifice the wishes of those that want to buy at 135, it will never come. (Not that I believed those people would have the balls nor the $$ to invest anyway...) 600 is not at all hype, Monero is a binary bet for exactly zero, or at least 5% of BTC's marketcap (5000 ksat/XMR). don't you think your money would be better spent "defending" after a massive surge pushing it down to new lows? there are TONS of coins hitting the market every day (one days worth = a MASSIVE selloff)
What I think can be seen in my actions. |
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wow. well that dump hurt.
Wonder when the downtrend is going to stop? 200? 180? 150?
I have my promise in place from the very ancient times: if XMR goes to 200, I will put a BTC100 bid wall in 150, and it will stay there as long as XMR is convincingly above 200 again (or get dumped into). It already went below 200  EDIT: Why not set it at 0.00175, that will support the previous low. I was offline, plus needed to access coldwallet. It will be there shortly. I am sure there will be plenty of takers in front of the wall, but it is the last defence if one of the whales wants to cash out at a loss. Supporting "technical levels" could not interest me any less at this point. Anyone selling now is selling at a terrible loss, especially measured in fiat. Anyone buying now, is buying a gamble, at a time when the overall confidence in crypto is at an annual low point. |
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Gold bought in this auction must be paid in 24 hours. Non-payment is considered default and results in forfeiture of game assets, or denial to enter the game at a later time.
HM The King reserves the right to make clarifications.
A kind reminder. My understanding is that Earl David has given payment instructions to everyone, so there is no reason to not pay accordingly. Yet as of now, 3/7 winners still have not paid. If no payment shows up in 3.5 hours, the right to the gold may be forfeited, according to my pleasure at that time. |
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wow. well that dump hurt.
Wonder when the downtrend is going to stop? 200? 180? 150?
I have my promise in place from the very ancient times: if XMR goes to 200, I will put a BTC100 bid wall in 150, and it will stay there as long as XMR is convincingly above 200 again (or get dumped into). |
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About 2 days left until the auction ends.
Situation currently:
1,000 @ 0.40 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
1,000 @ 0.30 smooth
1,000 @ 0.27 iluvbitcoins
1,000 @ 0.26 djjacket
1,000 @ 0.25 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
1,000 @ 0.23 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
1,000 @ 0.23 Bassica
1,000 @ 0.22 dnaleor
2,000 @ 0.22 Lord NewLiberty
----------------------------------
1,000 @ 0.22 luigi1111
1,000 @ 0.21 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
1,000 @ 0.21 dnaleor
If the auction would end now, the price would be 0.22 XMR/CKG.
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Good. Seems King works hard. There is a misconception that ruling means not doing anything. On the contrary, ruling is very hard work because the degrees of freedom are often less than with the ones being ruled. The King needs to do what it takes to maintain peace and prosperity in the Kingdom, and cannot fool around like the young nobles do. Often it requires doing nothing, which is hard if it is forced upon you. In other times, it requires you to live in Pacific timezone despite residing in Estonia and working 16/7. Also the King's finances are a pressing affair of state. The maintenance of real-life 3,500 square-meter Malla Palace (whose ingame 1,200 sqm miniature costs ~1,300 XMR to build, not including the gilded roof with ~2,700 XMR recovery value), is eating the King's treasury like a worm. With the help of the income in the game and the gold sales, the King will feel more comfortable to attend to the Palaces in the real life also. Taxable event is never constituted, because the income from ingame sales of virtual items (gold) stays ingame as virtual items (XMR). What will come next as regards the game: - soon (Thursday morning, 1426) list of characters with their balances - quite soon (Saturday, 1430) publishing of the Rulebook v. 1.1 Building, and the character database, city map, and building editor - rather soon (Saturday, 7pm GMT, 1430) the gold auction ends - almost soon (Sunday, 1432) first land grants, and characters may build buildings What is needed: - Building inspector / Archivist / Cartographer. The buildings need to be checked that they conform to the rules, before they are built. Game databases of lot ownership, city map (detailed) and city map (overview), resource consumption etc. must be updated. Utmost care must be exercised in handling the databases. This is not for a loose character. You receive 500,000 moneritos (/ negotiable) fee for every transaction. PM me. - Architect. This voluntary profession is to design pleasing buildings that conform to the rules and are easily accepted by the Building inspector. (Saving the work from rich busy players who can't take the time to master the building rules and design their buildings themselves.) Architect's work is about 5% of the total cost, so designing a building whose value is 200 XMR, might net the architect 10 XMR if he can make such a deal. PM me also, you might get hold of the editor earlier. |
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About 3 days left until the auction ends. Situation currently:
1,000 @ 0.40 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony) 1,000 @ 0.30 smooth 1,000 @ 0.26 djjacket 1,000 @ 0.25 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony) 1,000 @ 0.23 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony) 1,000 @ 0.22 dnaleor 2,000 @ 0.22 Lord NewLiberty 1,000 @ 0.22 luigi1111 1,000 @ 0.21 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony) ---------------------------------- 1,000 @ 0.21 dnaleor 10,000 @ 0.20 HM The King If the auction would end now, the price would be 0.21 XMR/CKG. (I'm still not sure what my 100 to MEW gets me?)
MEW bonus gold is calculated as follows: votepower*25% / price of gold: Eg. if the gold price ends up at 0.21, your 100 votes would get 100 * 25% / 0.21 = 119 bonus gold. There are no discounts. The early poster bonus is calculated similarly: posts*20 / price of gold: Each early post (see definition in the game main thread) would in this case net 95 bonus gold. |
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could be possible to publish a spreadsheet after the auction with gold and stone ?
This google spreadsheet already exists and it will be polished to be published as part of the Version 1.1: Building. Despite having a launch date of this Sunday, it is possible that it will be published prior to the ending of the auction (I believe it will boost the auction results a lot, to see the city map with your own eyes, plus the possibilities for constructing grand edifices and all the new rules). Tomorrow (in about 12 real-hours) I will write the Kingdom Tidings, and include gold and stone balances of all characters. |
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The R^2 is way bigger than any other you have seen because the data points between the genesis and the days before MtGox start are calculated to 0 spread for any given "a" and "b". That generates another curve, those days are recalculated again to zero spread, and you get another "a" and "b" with better R^2.
R^2 improves at each iteration.
10 to 20 iterations later, the R^2 doesn't get any better. That's the number 0'9886 that you see in the chart.
Further ways to improve it: - using emitted marketcap instead of price per unit (a different perspective). - add pre-MtGox data because it is not reasonable to leave out data arbitrarily (people who were around those days still live among us). - 2009 may be exempted, but from the start of 2010 difficulty started to rise so quickly that it is evident that Bitcoin gained traction. |
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There is a simple solution to bad Gini -- if you hold the dominant portion: Distribute it.
I am about to build a grand palace in Crypto Kingdom. My estimate of the labor cost alone is 300 XMR. It will go to Labor pool, and becomes distributed to all the players in the game. Crypto Kingdom uses XMR as the ingame currency. |
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About 3 days left until the auction ends.
Situation currently:
1,000 @ 0.40 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
1,000 @ 0.30 smooth
1,000 @ 0.26 djjacket
1,000 @ 0.25 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
1,000 @ 0.23 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
1,000 @ 0.22 dnaleor
2,000 @ 0.22 Lord NewLiberty
1,000 @ 0.21 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
1,000 @ 0.21 dnaleor
----------------------------------
10,000 @ 0.20 HM The King
If the auction would end now, the price would be 0.20 XMR/CKG.
The price is determined by the highest non-winning bid.
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About 3 days left until the auction ends.
Situation currently:
1,000 @ 0.40 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
1,000 @ 0.30 smooth
1,000 @ 0.26 djjacket
1,000 @ 0.25 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
1,000 @ 0.23 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
1,000 @ 0.22 dnaleor
1,000 @ 0.21 Riccardo, Earl of Forte Spagnolo (fluffypony)
3,000 @ 0.20 HM The King
----------------------------------
7,000 @ 0.20 HM The King
1,000 @ 0.20 dnaleor
If the auction would end now, the price would be 0.20 XMR/CKG.
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