maybe he is the one who is selling out? /s

how does one day relate to a model that describes average price?

I agree. Anecdotally, a few people in late December talked about a strange flu that starts as usual, but then result in exhaustion/feeling flat 1-2 weeks later.
It could have been regular flu, who really knows for sure.

Regarding the current plunge, it could only mean three things:
1. Something is broken/bad news coming
2. PTB is creating a large discount for the run of the millennium (they are doing the same for the stock market, ostensibly).
3. Perhaps, new players are being favored and this is creating a "cleaner slate" for them (remember Armstrong putting out some verbiage about btc leadership being in jeopardy?)

I give chances to three scenarios (1-3) as 35%, 55% and 10%, give or take.

maybe, but I am curious about rebounding yield curves. 10 year went from 0.31% on Monday to 0.82% today- a crazy move.
We shall see if it continues. I stand by my prediction (made on Sunday) that Monday would mark the generational low in US [long term] bond yields.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53992050#msg53992050


Maybe, but futures are NOT at the lock down yet.

Doesn't have a clue about bonds, perhaps.
Low yield=high price. Bad for pensioners, good for those long bonds, just look at TLT.
EU has mostly negative yield.

A small comment to TA people who make a big deal (BD) out of violations of various imaginary lines: don't do it.

Extreme circumstances such as market crashes, virus, etc don't follow imaginary lines aka short term violation of such lines is NBD.
Look what MSFT did during the 1987 crash and what followed in the next 10-13 years.

not yet, or at least not on this call.

focus on a bigger picture, IMHO.
BTC price by itself today is less relevant vs later this week and by the EOY.

No. Judging by the level of panic, markets would put a midterm bottom either tomorrow or by the end of the week.
^TYX will also put in a generational low in yield, could be tomorrow (since it looks like being below 1%) or sometime next week as well.
Someone would probably short Treasuries en mass soon. Gold says so.
We had a 38 year bull market in bonds, now (after next week) probably a bear market for the next 10-15 years until stocks trade at P/E of 7 and bond yield is at least 10-12%.

Then the bull cycle (at least in bonds) would begin anew.

Don't count on any previously reliable benchmarks if we hit circuit breakers tomorrow.
SP500 is at -4.9% according to the futures. Hopefully, it would recover by am.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rout-u-stock-futures-trigger-221631295.html

Market bears think otherwise (note the timing BEFORE the correction), but it's just an opinion.
That dude is thinking that we will eventually (within a decade, I assume) will revisit SP500 667.
That would be gruesome.

So far, his thesis (laid down 20 years ago re negative bond yields) looks prescient.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-could-test-2009-low-says-longtime-bear-1522957392
and (more recent)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/perma-bear-albert-edwards-sees-market-ice-age-looming-what-hes-worried-about-now-51581452731


Man, I was so down to spending the next few years just working and, hopefully, getting wealthier via btc investment.
Freaking fourth turning, right?

teleported himself out of trouble.

All those targets make no sense now.
The only question is: is this a one-off event which would dissipate in a couple of months OR is this is a reset of all economic activity that would resettle at a semi-permanent plateau that would last for at least several years. I still think that it is the former, but some here argue that it is the latter.
We shall see.

A new miner (T17+) only hashes on two boards out of three directly from the box.
Pure thievery as it would cost more to send it back than to keep hashing on two boards.

Not pleased.
DO NOT order T17+

In your face...I like it...
That said, being rich is a temporary state. There is no rich or poor when our atoms join the landscape.
Would be nice to buy some time, wouldn't it?
That's, perhaps, is (or would be) an ultimate goal of the rich-extend their being.

Oil is down about 10% today, TNX at 0.72%, TYX at 1.27%, yet freaking mortgages are STILL at 3.25-3.5%.
They have to be at 2.25-2.5% MAX.

ha ha..brings back some fun memories
Try to write a scientific paper using xywrite...oh, my.

Nobody wants to listen to boomers anymore, but it is an interesting generation that lived through major tech upheavals.
They started (and lived into their mid-late twenties) when people were still WRITING letters (and sending them by snail mail) to each other for once.
Yet, here they are, facebooking, tweeting, etc. They adopted.
What would millenials have to adopt to in 30 years? It's an interesting question.

I seriously considered Tesla, got a beemer instead. Model S is fine, but overpriced by at least 50%. Model 3 is too small of a car (spacewise and for the money).
Beemer is a pleasure to drive-when you ask for power-it gives it to you right there without complains.

Maybe not a bad idea...albeit I already sold my GLD (don't have physical).
If everything would go down, gold would follow.
Not making any moves in the stock market and simply hodling here as well; S. Leisman is agitating for a $1 tril stimulation package.
I wonder if we would keep tip-toeing down at a 2-3% clip or would have one truly horrible day where we test circuit breakers, followed by a super rally.

Re Citadels-don't be too cocky in thinking that it would be btc in use there. It might be, albeit, no guarantees.

mining is like slowly buying, but fixed costs are high (miners are expensive).
At best, breakeven nowadays all things considered.

BTW, I think that btc is currently faking it (the bull run). Hoping for not lower than 8200.
How do I know? We got three super good news affecting more than a billion people, potentially, and all we got was a lousy 200 points or so.