not sure how to protect against the flu! does this count too?
I've heard several times the poverty level face masks, self or factory made make almost no difference. Says who? Or, rather, does WHO say it? If you don't have masks (or you have just 1.2% of what might be needed as we learned today) you would certainly say that they are not useful. Anybody can see that all Chinese wear them ...and they seem to have new cases diminished (if you believe their numbers). Independent variables or not? I don't know. |
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Who?
A minor political figure of the "early bitcoin" era. |
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I still think BTC could be around 10-12K before the halving... but those dreams about $100K any time soon (ie in 1-2 years) still look to me to me just like that: Dreams.
Hope they do realise some day though.
$100k might be not possible in 1-2 years, but touching $50,000 at least once by the end of 2021 still looks quite possible to me. Pish. $50K is the post FOMO blowoff top crash nadir price. Yes, our last low was approx 2.69x prior high (3122 vs 1160). Last high was 19,780, hence 2.69x of it is 53K, give or take. If our prior trend would hold, we would decline about 81% from the putative ATH high to 53K making 278K an assumed predicted high (on a spike), which also makes sense in comparison with the 100K median-state S2F prediction. The last time median price predicted by S2F was approx 6.7K, we went 2.95x of this at the peak...therefore, 2.95x 100k median is 295K, which almost matches the 278k number derived by other means (295 vs 278). TL;DR IMHO, any price between 200K-300K is possible at the next peak and 50K is too low. |
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( $7X10^20 OR $93 billion per each current Earth inhabitant).
now THAT"S inflation Someone should issue a 100-200 year "convertible Psyche bonds" with 3-4% coupon and an Attached right (guaranteed by all Earth goverments) to a part of uncovered wealth. Say, $100k investment guarantees $10 trillion of "psyche future value" out of 700 quintillion projected. So, 70mil such bonds at $100K/pop would raise $7 trillion right now, which should cover the development of necessary ships, technology, etc to do this. Not sure who would pay the coupon, though, and numbers can be played with too. The whole thing might jump-start the economy, though. Sounds like a plan for after 2026 when the results come back. |
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bump
price lowered to $1400 (in btc), shipped from US location to US only.
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There are better one's today, but I am not buying.
If there was a FEDCOIN (that depends in price on the size of FED pumping), I would probably went long that one.
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WO is a skeptical bunch with most popular prediction being less than 8K before 10K.
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amazing fakery, as usual. 500-600 points up in the last 15 min on the DOW and Nasdaq closes at, listen to this, +0.01%. Got to be positive  . |
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Gold is not behaving well at all today.
I guess that you are 'not allowed' to have any hedges apart from stupid bonds, which are overvalued.
10 year went up (down in yield) like 12% today, lol.
I am very surprised that we keep trickling down 2-3% in the stock market almost ever day. Very strange.
I would have assumed that markets can price in everything quicker.
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My take on this is that we are beyond TA and trends, running on pure emotions.
These types of markets are unpredictable, so my solution is to do nothing since every move is prone to be detrimental short term.
Selling out of most equities was a good move, though (short term).
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Nice graph by @flibbr showing the traded price of 1 btc aginst the cost to mine one over time  Looks like a partial BS to me. First off, I remember 2015-miners did not have huge profitability back then (that is erroneously shown). Second part of why it is BS-because there is no sharp changes in profitability at the halving point (mid 2016, for example). Recent numbers look OK. |
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Tomorrow's markets look bleak (this is the most likely explanation for a 250 [EDIT: $ or euros or whatever] point down in btc): https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/us-futures-coronavirus-outbreak.htmlAs of 9:45 p.m. ET Sunday, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were 392 points lower, pointing to an implied opening plunge of 385.41 points for the index on Monday. |
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An interesting piece...I always try not looking for patterns where there aren't any. It is very difficult NOT to do. https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200217-the-simple-maths-error-that-can-lead-to-bankruptcySurprisingly, education and intelligence do not protect us against the bias. Indeed, one study by Chinese and American researchers found that people with higher IQs are actually more susceptible to the gambler’s fallacy than people who score less well on standardised tests. It could be that the more intelligent people overthink the patterns and believe that they are smart enough to predict what comes next. When that happens homer, I think I will faint  in last night video prediction (next 4 years) went like this: 400K, 150K, no prediction, 100K At 400K btc would be at 80% of current value of Gold. i seems realistic. Additionally, 10K is equally distant in %% from both $250 (that was prevalent in 2015) and 400K. |
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Nah he is right, every halvening is less important then the previous. LOL, there has only been 2 halvings so far. With this small of a data set, we're speaking in the realm of coincidence, not reliable patterns. In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise before the vertical swing of an S-curve. I would be weary of assuming the past cycles will automatically extrapolate into the future. The trend could reverse, or the magnitude could increase (or decrease) even by orders of magnitude.  The people planning to sell at $60K-$100K because they insist BTC must follow the past logarithmic trend (with diminishing gains) may end up selling way too early. That is possible, but it is more logical to assume that the amplitude of price swings will decline as market cap. increases. It can be seen from the long term price chart that this is actually happening. As market cap increaes in weight, it requires a greater and greater weight of Fiat to move price by a given %. The bottleneck will always be in the Fiat conversion. Past cycles here are a relatively poor guide to the future now, if only because there is relatively little data on long term trends (having not got to the 'long term' yet). My own gut feeling is that the strong overhead resistances of 10400 and 13500 will hold for an extended period. 7000 is reasonable support. Going to be a lot more boring than the 'herd' would like. If there is a new ATH, it may not be until 2021-2. I understand this reasoning, but, interestingly enough, moves DOWN changed only marginally from cycle to cycle (-94%, -85% and -84%). Why, if this is the case, the moves UP shall dissipate? They might not, at least not for the next one. |
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Anyone bullish because of halving? According to halvings in 2016 and 2012 we had one last correction 93 days before halving in 2012 (-57%) and 95 days before halving in 2016 (-40%). We are now in 2020. So this year 95 days before halving puts btc exactly on the start of this correction on the 13 february when bitcoin reached 10.497. We are now almost -8% from the top.
Is it possible that you are looking at a wrong chart? Halving in 2016 was on July 9 or 10th, don't recall exactly. There was no 40% correction anywhere close to April 5, 2016, which is at the -95 day mark. Are you referring to a correction between June 16 and June 23 2016? First off, that correction was roughly 23%, give or take AND it happened after an approximately 77% surge in the prior three weeks or so. |
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I expect a sharp drawdown in many assets including both stock markets and btc, maybe even gold, somewhere between now and late March.
That can only happen if Fed sharply raises interest rates. That will never happen! Too much debt! Too late for conventional monetary policy! Q: what does this have to do with the interest rates? A: nothing It would go down because there would be less E in P/E. We shall see. |
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Most here don't get the emerging medium term big picture.
Sadly, it would probably go along the lines of masterluc- that "Vanga" could be right again, but not for any "fundamental" reasons.
I expect a sharp drawdown in many assets including both stock markets and btc, maybe even gold, somewhere between now and late March.
After that, a recovery would start, maybe even reaching back to 10K or thereabout at the halving.
Still, kept all btc (since I am not good at re-entering), increased treasury bills position (sold 67% of equities).
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S17pro and S17e are not for sale anymore (sent to hosting).
Let me know if interested in T17e.
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