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3701  Economy / Speculation / Hedge funds gamble on Mt Gox bitcoin payout on: February 15, 2017, 05:34:58 PM
Article from Financial Times. :

https://www.ft.com/content/821ae69a-f0d1-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

Quote
Hedge funds in the US and Japan have devised a daring wager on the future price of bitcoin as the Tokyo courts continue to wade through the aftermath of the Mt Gox exchange collapse and one of the biggest digital heists in history.

According to people with direct knowledge of the situation, at least four hedge funds have begun buying or offering to buy claims from the many thousands of former trading account holders who lost bitcoins and cash when Mt Gox — then the world’s biggest bitcoin exchange — declared bankruptcy in February 2014.

None of the 24,000 or so claimants is expected to get back more than a quarter of the lost bitcoins and cash in their accounts. But the payout will eventually come entirely in the form of bitcoins, so the potential advantage is huge.

Nobody knows how long it will take for claims to be settled but there is the potential for it to be at least another year while five other Mt Gox-related legal disputes are resolved.

Hedge funds are offering claimholders a shortcut that lets them sell their claim now and receive 15 per cent of the yen value of each claim in cash. The hedge funds, meanwhile, are gambling on a bitcoin windfall at some point in the future.

When the claims were lodged in 2014, the Mt Gox trustees calculated their value using an exchange rate of just under $450 per bitcoin. After gains throughout 2016 the market price of one bitcoin in January surpassed $1,000 for the first time since the Mt Gox collapse, and on Monday was trading just above $1,012.


3702  Economy / Speculation / Re: Central Banks & Bitcoin - What if they start accumulating? on: February 15, 2017, 05:13:39 PM
Central banks can't do this secretly - their balance sheets are audited and published. So they basically won't do it unless bitcoin becomes a major factor in world trade. Of course if bitcoin was used a lot in world trade, it's price would already be high, before any central bank started accumulating it.
3703  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Faucet Business on: February 15, 2017, 04:36:09 PM
Is starting a bitcoin Faucet worth the input effort and investment? Is the profit earned by running the faucet provides decent income? Has anyone invested in such venture? How was your experience?

It used to be profitable, but stopped last year when Google banned faucet sites from their Adsense program.

Adsense used to pay quite well, whereas other ad networks pay pitifully, they don't pay enough to cover costs. A lot of faucet sites closed down after the Adsense ban. So that business model is dead and buried.
3704  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitFlyer the world's largest bitcoin exchange Jan 2017? How? on: February 15, 2017, 04:13:50 PM
Yup. Zero fees. And if that 400,000 figure is true then 399,000 of them will be foreigners looking for action. Japan really doesn't seem to have taken to Bitcoin in any way whatsoever.

How does BitFlyer make it's money? The Chinese exchanges were making money through charging interest for margin trading - is BitFlyer using the same model?
it is just part of promotion , the site says transaction fees free at least for two weeks as campaign to attract people to trade there. so i guess after that the fee will be there as usual , no way they can make it last forever.

also if you take a look to alexa stats http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/bitflyer.jp , the whole traffic come from japan only , hmmm is there something wrong?

OK thanks. It means they will be the "biggest exchange" only for a short period of time.
3705  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitFlyer the world's largest bitcoin exchange Jan 2017? How? on: February 15, 2017, 03:20:53 PM
Yup. Zero fees. And if that 400,000 figure is true then 399,000 of them will be foreigners looking for action. Japan really doesn't seem to have taken to Bitcoin in any way whatsoever.

How does BitFlyer make it's money? The Chinese exchanges were making money through charging interest for margin trading - is BitFlyer using the same model?
3706  Economy / Speculation / Re: Charts: How an ETF Approval Could Impact Bitcoin's Price on: February 14, 2017, 07:27:39 PM
Turns out that the Winklevoss ETF is not the only one trying to get approval:

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2017/01/20/another-bid-for-a-bitcoin-etf/

Quote
The race to launch a bitcoin exchange-traded fund for retail investors became a three-way competition.

According to Paul Vigna at The Wall Street Journal, Grayscale Investments, a firm run by technology entrepreneur Barry Silbert, filed with the SEC to list its Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) on the New York Stock Exchange.

Grayscale joins two other groups seeking approval for their bitcoin ETFs. Winklevoss Capital, the firm operated by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, is awaiting an SEC decision on its filing, which is expected by March. SolidX is also seeking SEC approval for its bitcoin ETF, which also would be listed on the NYSE.

As the newspaper reports:

    The move by Grayscale Investments, a unit of Mr. Silbert’s Digital Currency Group, could expand the audience for the fledgling virtual currency if the fund is approved by the SEC. It also could prove an early test for how an SEC run by a Donald Trump appointee will greet innovations that may raise investor protection or other market-structure issues.

    …The benefits of being first on a major exchange could be big, assuming that bitcoin does manage to establish itself as a viable asset class. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF launched in Nov. 18, 2004, and has $31 billion in assets. The iShares Gold Trust ETF launched on Jan. 21, 2005, and has $7.7 billion in assets. Gold, a commodity not backed by any particular government, appeals to investors for some of the same reasons that bitcoin does.
3707  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Japanese banks invest in local bitcoin exchange on: February 14, 2017, 06:18:20 PM
Although this does sound like a great thing for bitcoin, will it not also have the undesired result of further centralizing bitcoin to the Asiatic countries? Not trying to FUD, was simply my first thought after reading this.

Japan is a democracy, there is no Great Firewall, no dictatorship. Their regulations are pretty transparent. Their central bank works well. So there is nothing to worry about.

I'd say adoption in Japan, South Korea, Australia etc would be a welcome boost to bitcoin. It doesn't matter that they are pacific countries. What matters is that they are open democracies and there is no danger of a dictatorship seizing control of exchanges or miners.
3708  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin Meets Starbucks: iPayYou's Bold Bet Goes Live on: February 14, 2017, 05:57:25 PM
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/bitcoin-meets-starbucks-ipayyous-bold-bet-goes-live-cm747580

Quote
Launched in May of 2016, iPayYou is an online platform and digital wallet that promotes the viability of Bitcoin as a method of payment. It immediately saw early success through a unique feature known as Pay-by-Twitter — the first online platform site for peer-to-peer payments over Twitter (TWTR).

Now in a bold bet sure to deliver a caffeine jolt to the retail sector, iPayYou this past December introduced Bitcoin Direct to Starbucks (SBUX), a new way for coffee aficionados to pay for those espressos and other drinks through the use of Bitcoin.

This feature allows users to seamlessly transfer bitcoins from their existing iPayYou Bitcoin wallet to their Starbucks mobile app. They select how much (in USD) they wish to transfer before prompting Bitcoin Direct to Starbucks to automatically withdraw that amount from their iPayYou account. Once deposited into that person’s Starbucks account, purchases can be made via the mobile app at any Starbucks location.
3709  Economy / Speculation / Re: Two newbie questions about anonymity and pump and dumps on: February 14, 2017, 05:54:00 PM
1. Bitcoin is referred to a quasi-anonymous, in that transactions to specific addresses are stored and can thus be tracked. Why doesn’t this provide a means to find out something about who/what is behind big pump and dumps?
I can assure you that exchange operators are perfectly aware who is the big whale and who is behind the flow of coins.

Will it help you when you will know who owns the coins? What will you do if you know that 'Jon Snow' is selling 882 BTC?

You can still see the see sell/buy orders just without names behind it.

This. You can track bitcoin via the blockchain only to the point where the coins go into the exchanges. The exchanges trade off-blockchain, and they are the only ones who know who are making the trades.
3710  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What do you think of people that treat Bitcoin solely as an investment? on: February 14, 2017, 04:43:38 PM
Most people treat "foreign currencies" as investments. You use your nation's currency for day-to-day stuff, and you hold foreign currencies for either investment or to facilitate trade with foreign nations. Bitcoin falls into the "foreign" category.
3711  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Litecoin segwit activation. What happened? on: February 14, 2017, 04:33:21 PM
People on the litecoin subreddit are going hard on it, telling people to mine on their phones and anything they can to push segwit, how is it being decided in the litecoin community?

Most of litecoin is mined in China - and if Chinese miners are not sure about segwit for bitcoin, it is possible they arn't sure about it for litecoin too.
3712  Economy / Speculation / Re: What are the odds of Winklesoss ETF passing? [POLL] on: February 14, 2017, 04:31:35 PM

Financial analysts claim there is less than 30% chance that SEC will give ETF a go.


It is the moining concentration behind the Great Firewall of China that is the real sticking point. It is a real shame that Satoshi's vision of mining distributed evenly across the world didn't come to pass.
3713  Economy / Exchanges / HaoBTC Will Halt Exchange Services Soon on: February 13, 2017, 05:19:02 PM
https://themerkle.com/haobtc-to-shut-down-bitcoin-exchange-operations-soon/

Quote
The recent string of new requirements by the PBOC has made life a bit more difficult for Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges. Some services even started delaying bitcoin withdrawals by several days, as they are working on implementing new anti-money laundering requirements. HaoBTC was one of the few exchanges seemingly unaffected by the announcement, even though they made some significant changes as well.

Just last week, the company announced they would introduce new deposit fees for their exchange business. A 5% fee would be charged for all deposits, which is quite steep, to say the least. It appears this was only a sign of what had yet to come as Chinese sources claim HaoBTC will shut down their exchange service very soon. All of their other bitcoin services, including the mining pool and online wallet will continue to operate without delays or issues.
3714  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Discussion (Altcoins) / Re: Volume Altcoin Drop on: February 13, 2017, 04:46:02 PM
People are waiting to see what happens with bitcoin's ETF. Makes sense to just hold BTC and wait. Alts tend to sink as BTC rises, so it is a risk at the moment to invest in an alt just before the ETF decision is made.

I expect normal activity will resume after March 11th.
3715  Economy / Speculation / Re: PBOC really wants to keep the price of BTC suppressed it seems on: February 13, 2017, 04:42:49 PM
Why does Bitcoin need to scale? There are plenty of alt-coins for quick/micro payments. Leave BTC alone!

The big danger is that if people start using alts to move money, they will switch permanently to the alt, and at that point, bitcoin will sink. A bit like how Facebook defeted MySpace even though it was the second-mover.
3716  Economy / Speculation / Re: When would you expect new announcement from PBOC on: February 11, 2017, 09:46:11 PM
My own theory about what happens in China is below - it shows why I believe there will be further announcements and significant ones - but actually this poll is not about this theory - just about next important announcement what ever it is about.

It looks very likely that the Chinese authorities will do everything to stop money outflows. Their first announcement about this a few months ago was about stopping bitcoins from moving outside of the country - this was not believed here - because it seemed impossible to enforce. Later in January we have had announcement about PBOC examining the exchanges, and then requiring them to stop leveraged trading, introduce trading fees stop artificially inflating volumes and in general enforcing more strictly any other relevant law. My interpretation of this move is that it was mostly about gathering information - the fake volumes were muddying the image. Then this week they announced that there will be new AML rules (or check or whatever) and most exchanges temporarily stopped withdrawals before the new AML rules are established.

This is pure speculation - but what I believe will be next is that PBOC will announce something like 'registered wallets' and all BTC transfers from a registered wallet will be allowed only into another registered wallet (moving BTC from unregistered wallet into a registered one will also be possible). The registered wallets will be hosted to enforce this - but it is quite easy for the authorities to watch for infractions on the blockchain - so I think many companies will be allowed to host registered wallets. The exchanges of course will only allow withdrawals to registered wallets. This way the goal announced many months ago of stopping BTC from moving abroad will be reached. In practice BTCs in the registered wallets will be something very different from 'real' BTCs - but formally it will only be about enforcing the capital controls.
The next thing will be controlling the miners. All mining businesses will be vulnerable - but it will be much harder to enforce the rules on people mining on their private machines, I guess the measures here will depend on how tightly they need to control it, how big outflows it generates.

That sounds extremely plausible. If they start controlling miners then that ETF will be dead in the water. I wonder if the PBOC will make their move before the SEC has to make their announcement about the ETF?
3717  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why centralization is way that Bitcoin will go in future in current state. on: February 11, 2017, 04:59:29 PM
Remember there are lots of cryptocurrencies. What usually happens when fees get high is people start using Ether or Doge to move money. The number of transactions on bitcoin then drop, and then they start using bitcoin again. Rinse and repeat. Of course the risk is that at some point people stick to the alt and bitcoin usage starts to shrivel.

P.S. Here is Eric Vorhees on twitter:

https://twitter.com/ErikVoorhees/status/830197808573587457

Quote
I'm finding myself holding some extra ETH to use as payments, since Bitcoin is becoming too expensive/delayed Sad
3718  Economy / Speculation / Re: Charts: How an ETF Approval Could Impact Bitcoin's Price on: February 11, 2017, 04:20:55 PM
Here is another article about the ETF:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/02/10/after-bitcoin-dropped-10-how-likely-is-an-etf-now/

They think the events in China (removing margin lending, enforcing fee trading, insisting on KYCs and AML compliance) are marginally positive for the ETF.

Potential hardfork in bitcoin to deal with block size is negative

And Trump administration priorities are negative for the ETF.

3719  Economy / Speculation / Re: What are the odds of Winklesoss ETF passing? [POLL] on: February 11, 2017, 03:23:53 PM
One thing is sure, they have had enough time to work things out. If it still doesn't get approved, then something is fundamentally wrong. Not that it would change much for me if it doesn't get approved, but I think it will disappoint quite some people as this (once approved) may turn out to be an entry point for high level investors that are waiting on the side lines right now.

That something will be the concentration of mining in China, plus the backlog in transactions. Both shout "mickey mouse currency".
3720  Economy / Speculation / Re: Charts: How an ETF Approval Could Impact Bitcoin's Price on: February 11, 2017, 03:34:44 AM
This made me laugh reading it.

Quote
Current market speculation

Needham and Company published a report early this year estimating that an ETF approval was likely below 25%. However, at the time of writing, the newly released BitMex EFT prediction market is expecting a 33% chance. We've seen speculative bitcoin pricing in the range of $1,050-$1,150 and success probabilities of 25% to 33%, figures that are in line with a $500m-$1bn capital injection from ETFs. In such a scenario, we would see bitcoin's market cap swell to $20bn-28bn.

I hope and wish Needham and Company really know what they are talking about and getting into. They should visit this forum more and see what is really happening with Bitcoin. We had spammers attacking the network causing more than 50,000 unconfirmed transactions twice this week and more the past few weeks. We have scalability problems and more problems on how to solve it. We have an experimental payment system with Bitcoin but the people outside of it treats it like digital gold. So amusing.

Very true. In some ways, the ETF might expose Bitcoin's problems to the mainstream media and cause irreparable harm.
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