If I'm not mistaken, that wise investor was Warren Buffett

But you should keep in mind that blindly buying something in the down market is no guarantee of success. On the contrary, it is in fact a recipe for disaster. What Warren Buffett meant is that valuable assets in such a market are heavily oversold and undervalued, so you can buy them really cheap, that's true indeed, but valuable asset is not equal any asset. Thus, you should first find such an asset and distinguish it from other assets, i.e. do what every wise investor does all the time

Сама базовая идея выглядит сомнительной

Ну, скажем, кого-то из ваших скептически настроенных друзей вы таки убедите в полезности или возможности использования крипты в миру (ну мало ли). И что дальше? В чем смысл всей затеи? Потом ваш верный друг решает прикупить немного крипты, очевидным образом теряет свои деньги на этом поле чудес, и медленным движением руки превращается в вашего заклятого врага

Глупо возвращаться обратно

Это примерно как к опостылевшей жене после любовницы - не самая лучшая идея для уважающего себя мужика (как говорится, умерла, так умерла). Даже если в крипте не сложилось (например, украли все деньги на Вексе), ну или трейдинг сам по себе разочаровал, то лучше использовать это время для поиска новых способов реализации где-нибудь еще

Как вариант, например, на заработаную копеечку можно пойти для начала поучиться, а потом уже и пробовать себя в новой сфере. По Пушкину, мы все учились чему-нибудь и как-нибудь, но как сказала Алиса из Зазеркалья, нужно бежать со всех ног, чтобы только оставаться на месте, а чтобы куда-то попасть, надо бежать как минимум вдвое быстрее!

As long as there is no "fair price", crypto will remain completely unpredictable

Many posters at first had been seriously thinking that Bitcoin couldn't crash below 6k as that was considered the ultimate lower limit determined by the profitability of mining. I don't know if the real mining costs (averaged) were close to that figure but we crashed almost two times below 6k without taking into account this consideration (and then Bitcoin miners started to sell out their mining rigs for the lack of profits)

In this way, any price is speculative or even random (think a random walk here). It is not determined by real use and adoption which would prevent sudden dumps, and as such there is nothing that could potentially arrest "the worst case scenario" if it is set to happen

They are not necessarily intentionally lying

As these people might have in fact made easy money with Bitcoin when it went straight up for a couple of years. If they were lucky to buy low and then sell high, it may in fact feel like it had been an easy journey for them. But as these days are most definitely over, now we have to slowly grind ahead as there is less opportunity to earn money and more opportunity (if I can say so) to lose it. To put it differently, now we are in the mainstream where only a few select earn consistently while the rest of the pack is mostly losing

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In fact, neither do I

Only incurable Bitcoin haters would claim that a certain altcoin is going to outlast Bitcoin just like any sane person understands that altcoins are and will remain in the future mostly speculative assets (even when compared to Bitcoin itself). And that's the exact reason why they attract so much money now that Bitcoin is slowly turning from a purely speculative asset into something else

Further, I don't think that major altcoins are going away any time soon, either. Really, what's in any new altcoin (to be created) that would make, say, Litecoin obsolete?

Ultimately, it all comes down to your net financial result

From my perspective, any normal person can cope with anything you described (high on chaos, adrenaline, risk taking and lots of action) as long as they are able to earn profits enough to make sense of this psychological tension and interested in that. So, in the end, it is not so much about a specific set of personality traits as their balance in respect to profit expectations, i.e. how much profit is needed to justify the mental effort required to obtain it (read, everyone can do that). Further, no one can actually stand serious losses as long as they are serious to the person experiencing them (this is like a reverse tautology)

Just imagine how you words will sound when we crash another 50% in a month or two

Technically, the second part of your post (which I quoted) contradicts the first one (which I didn't). As you first say, a skilled trader should be able to make profit out of any market situation (which I definitely subscribe to) and then you proceed to claim that the real traders (as I got it) have been accumulating all this time in the anticipation of a bull run (which may never come). To me, these two statements don't live quite well together. So are you sure you yourself are the "trader" that you make references to and not somebody only aspiring to become such?

In other words, as long as crypto can be stolen, it will be stolen

And what adds insult to injury is that all such hacks are almost always left unpunished due to the anonymous nature of cryptocurrencies and irreversibility of cryptocurrency transactions. In this way, government regulation, no matter how strict, won't prevent hacks from happening (as has already been proved in practice), and that's the whole reason why measures against stealing should be taken and implemented on a protocol level

As an example, we should be able to set white addresses where coins can be moved from a wallet. For exchange wallets this will effectively and efficiently prevent hacks and thefts even if the keys get compromised

You can read more about it here

Regarding shorting against a bullish trend, it is pretty much like buying on the way down. People do that thing all the time - it's called averaging down. Indeed, there is a difference as the price can't fall below 0 but can still rise very high. But that's exactly the reason why you shouldn't short at lower prices even if it is a bear trend as your profit potential is limited but risk exposure becomes unsustainable (unless you are hedging)

With all that said, the bullish trend of 2017 ended abruptly (well, at least for the majority of trading folk), and those who shorted at the peak were able to book insane profits. And yes, some people closed the last of their shorts near the 2018 bottom. There was another dude who was more successful that the one I mentioned above. He opened shorts near the ATH and got out near the bottom. It was discussed here too


These so-called "confirmations" are misleading more often than not. Or do you really think that a 200 MA gives you a reliable prediction? If it were so, everyone (using this confirmation) would be a millionaire and virtually everyone would be using it long ago

I think it's too early to tell

As we are barely 3 months into the year. 2018 was a turbulent year but it was not all down as there were massive rebounds too. Indeed, we simply can't fall another 10 thousand dollars though it doesn't mean that we can't fall another 50% or so (but let's hope that we won't). So even if 2019 does feel different so far, there is potentially nothing that could prevent Bitcoin from crashing lower (and all other cryptos following it). And then 2019 will feel pretty much like an extension of 2018

It may have looked like a crash in the end

Damn, it was a crash if we take into account how much the price dropped. However, I had been there and it felt exactly like a very well thought-out attempt at squeezing maximum juice from the market. There was plenty of intermittent sell pressure but it still didn't feel like a reckless dump. It felt like someone was giving traders time to recuperate

Actually, there are quite a few topics revealing first-hand experience of that time, and it definitely was not like one huge sell into the market at whatever price. In other words, the final price at the end of this selling spree was likely the best price that such a sell could ever get

I strongly second this view

As one wise bro once said (rumored to be Abraham Lincoln), you can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time. The point is that the truth will inevitably become known in due course just like the power of crypto will be revealed to common people in the end (I'm not preaching). So we should skillfully and subtly take advantage of the forces directed against us by the government and turn globalisation (which is one of the ways to enslave folks around the globe) against that government

It seems to me that we can't speak for those who would go as whales here

That said, I don't think someone who is buying a pile of bitcoins or going to sell as much actually cares about whoever might be on the opposite side of the trade and what their agenda could be. For example, when the Mt. Gox custodian was selling his huge stash of coins, he was just actively selling with his only concern not to crash the price too fast

So did he really care (let alone fear) if his buyer was a whale who had his own agenda and plans? I don't think very much. I guess he was just happy to see a lot of support building against his selling orders as that allowed him to liquidate his coins at the highest price possible (given the market conditions back in the day)

I think you are greatly exaggerating things here as only a minor proportion of the world population gets paid in that little green token (just as friendly a reminder to put things in their true perspective). Indeed, that is not your point (let me guess), but forgetting this simple fact makes your whole claim somewhat dubious and suspicious (or even chauvinistic, to a degree). Sorry, but the world doesn't revolve around America, though everyone loves the American dollar

Other than us, of course, who love Bitcoin more than the dollar

It largely depends on specific jurisdiction

It kinda goes without saying that if the authorities consider crypto outright illegal (there are quite a few such countries), you wouldn't really expect a lot of crypto related companies and businesses to have bank accounts to support their cryptocurrency operations. Truth be told, you wouldn't even expect these companies to be open about their operations involving cryptocurrencies in the first place

The bottom line is that the devil is in paying precious attention to specific details as legality of crypto varies greatly among different jurisdictions across the world. And things get even more complicated and convoluted with businesses operating on a global scale

There is not a lot of new money in crypto these days

So your whole question becomes kinda meaningless if this assumption is correct (which seems to be the case). But if you in fact wanted to ask why people got into crypto earlier (like a few years ago), then the answer should be straightforward and it was easy money. Those who invested in early 2015, had patience to keep their coins till the end of 2017 and prudence to quit when the time came, multiplied their investments. That was the primary driver if we cut the crap and noise

Very good point, bro

Everyone should think about this before jumping to any conclusions about bottoming out (even though it looks and feels like we did), finding a strong support, breaking resistance, and similar things. Cryptocurrency market has always been unpredictable, and it is even more unpredictable now when there is no established trend and any news, either positive or negative, can cause a major price shift